Nickel, Cobalt & Manganese - International Seabed Authority · Year Nickel Copper Cobalt Manganese....
Transcript of Nickel, Cobalt & Manganese - International Seabed Authority · Year Nickel Copper Cobalt Manganese....
Nickel, Cobalt & Manganese
History and Factors Affecting Future Demand
Difficulties of Projecting Demand
• Metal Demand is subject to unpredictable factors, both transient and transformational
• Four examples from the mid-1970s demonstrate the difficulty: USGS Medium and Low Projections, Wassily Leontief, and Wilfred Malenbaum
Forecasting Demand is a Risky Effort
6,96037.913,3001290Actual
18,50363.318,5231446Malenbaum
31,3002833Leontief
20,00057.814,7001290USGS-Low
22,10079.719,5001705USGS-Med.
ManganeseCobaltCopperNickelYear
Rating the ProjectionsCopper - 2000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
USGS-
Med.
USGS-
Low
Leon
tief
Malen
baum
Actu
al
Nickel - 2000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
USGS-Med. USGS-Low Leontief Malenbaum Actual
Cobalt - 2000
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10
20
30
40
50
60
70
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USGS-Med. USGS-Low Leontief Malenbaum Actual
Manganese - 2000
0
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10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
USGS-Med. USGS-Low Leontief Malenbaum Actual
Nickel, Cobalt and Manganese Prices (2005 Dollars)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
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7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004
Nic
kel (
$/po
und)
; Man
gane
se ($
/mtu
co
nt. M
N)
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10.00
20.00
30.00
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70.00
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Cob
alt (
$/po
und)
Nickel Manganese Cobalt
Demand Projections based on Recent Trends
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10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Copper Cobalt Manganese Nickel
Copper growth 4.0%Nickel growth 4..25%Cobalt growth 6.0%Mang. Growth 1.0%
Nickel
• Component in most Stainless Steels• Element in some Steel Alloys• Plating• Batteries (Ni-MH) are a small but growing
use of Nickel• 2005 Mine production: 1.5 Million Tonnes• Reserves: 62 Million Tonnes
Western World Nickel Use in 2000
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2005 Nickel Production(Thousands of Tonnes)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Other countries
Zimbabwe
Venezuela
Philippines
Greece
Botswana
South Africa
Brazil
Dominican Republic
China
Colombia
Cuba
New Caledonia
Indonesia
Canada
Australia
Russia
Nickel and Stainless Steel Demand Growth
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Nickel Demand in China
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40
60
80
100
120
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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Primary Nickel Demand
Ni in Imported Stainless
Nickel Reserves
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000
Other countries
Zimbabwe
Greece
Botswana
Venezuela
Dominican Republic
Colombia
Philippines
China
Indonesia
South Africa
New Caledonia
Brazil
Canada
Cuba
Russia
Australia
Cobalt
• Essential Metal for Advanced Economies: Superalloys, Carbides, Batteries, Tool Bits and Surface Treatments
• Nickel Can Substitute for Cobalt in Some Applications, but not all
• Generally Cobalt is a by-product of Nickel or Copper Production
• 2005 Mine Production: 52,400 Tonnes• Reserves: 7,000,000 Tonnes
Uses of Cobalt
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2005 Cobalt Production(Tonnes)
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Other countries
Brazil
New Caledonia
Morocco
Cuba
Russia
Canada
Australia
Zambia
Congo
Cobalt Reserves(Thousands of Tonnes)
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
Other countries
Morocco
Brazil
Canada
New Caledonia
Russia
Zambia
Cuba
Australia
Congo
Manganese
• Primary use is in steel production• Specialty steel and aluminum alloys• 200 Series Stainless Steel• Batteries: Conventional Alkaline and
Advanced Lithium-Ion• 2005 Production: 9,790 Thousand Tonnes• 2005 Reserves: 430,000 Thousand Tonnes
2005 Manganese Production(Thousands of Tonnes)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Mexico
India
Ukraine
China
Brazil
Gabon
Australia
South Africa
Manganese Reserves(Thousands of Tonnes)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
Ukra
ine
Indi
aAu
stra
lia
Chin
aSo
uth
Afric
a
Braz
il
Gabon
Mexico
Potential Demand Change: Automobile Design
• Rising Fuel Costs are promoting innovations in automobile design
• Major Competing Technologies are Advanced Diesel Engines and Hybrid and Electric Vehicles.
• Current and projected designs of hybrid and electric vehicles use batteries based on metals from nodules and crusts
• Changes in SLI systems (12 volt vs 36 volt)
US Sales of Hybrid Cars by Month
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Nickel and Cobalt in Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles
6085.71Lead/Lead Acid
4.0822.65Cobalt/ Lithium Ion
1250Nickel/ NiMH
Metal Content 3 kwh battery (Kg)
Battery Weight, 3 kwh battery (Kg)
Metal/ Battery Type
Implications of Battery Choice
• Annual World Production exceeds 55 Million Automobiles/year
• 10% Penetration by Hybrid Vehicles could require 66,000 tonnes of Nickel or 16,500 tonnes of Cobalt (4.5% or 31% of current world production respectively)
• Alternative Lithium-Ion batteries could use Nickel, a Nickel/Cobalt combination or Manganese
Battery Design Continues to Evolve: Manganese Li-Ion
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Some Factors Affecting Nickel, Cobalt and Manganese Supply
• Supply– Stability of Cobalt exports from the Dem. Rep.
Of Congo– Russian Export vs Domestic Consumption of
Nickel– Development and Expansion of Major Nickel
Deposits (Vosey’s Bay, Goro)– Improved application Pressure Acid Leach
processing for Laterites
Factors Affecting Nickel, Cobalt and Manganese Demand
• Economic Growth in China and other Developing Countries
• Use of 200 Series Stainless Steel in place of Nickel-based Stainless
• Adoption of Hybrid and Electric Automobiles with High-Capacity Batteries
Implications for Seabed Production
• Land based reserves of Cobalt, Nickel and Manganese can need demand, so metals from the seabed must compete for market
• Economic growth in China and Russia, followed by India and Brazil, will increase need for new sources of nickel and cobalt
• By-product relationships are advantage for seabed minerals• Long term contracts for production of specialty products
(electrolytic manganese, nickel and cobalt for batteries) could reduce risk and improve economic outlook