NICE Workshop: Session III

Physostegia virginana (above) and Baptista australis (right)* *photos from Missouri Botanical Garden PlantFinder

Dr. Jennifer Schwarz Ballard

Associate Vice President, Education

Phenology: Effects of Climate Change on Earth’s Biosphere – Plants

Explore: The Data

• What data do we have? (types, dates)

• What do the data represent?

• What comparisons can we make?

• What analyses can we carry out?

• What data do we have? (types, dates)• What do the data represent?

Explore: What are the data?

• First bloom dates for 5 plant species from 1852-2006 in Concord, MA

• Temperature data from Blue Hill Observatory (Milton, MA)– Annual mean temperature 1852-2006– Spring min/max temperature 1895-2006

• Annual precipitation from Blue Hill Observatory 1888-2006

Explore: Describe the Data • What do you notice about the first flower

data sets, individually and compared to each other?

• What do you notice about the temperature and precipitation data?

• Can you identify any possible trends or connections across data sets by looking at the data tables? If so, what?

• What do you notice about the first flower data sets, individually and compared to each other?

• What do you notice about the temperature and precipitation data?• Can you identify any trends or connections bloom time and

precipitation or temperature by looking at the data tables? If so, what?

• Are there any trends in bloom dates? What are they? Are all the trends similar?

• Are there any trends in temperature? How does temperature compare with bloom dates?

• Are there any trends in precipitation?

• How do the three variables compare with each other?

Explore: Conclusions• Annual average and springtime temperatures

appear to be increasing• These five species appear to be blooming earlier

in the season• There appears to be a relationship between first

bloom times for these five species and annual and springtime temperatures

• It is unclear whether there is a relationship between precipitation and bloom times

Explain: Driving Questions• How do plants “know” when to start growing

in the spring? What role does climate play?

• How does climate change impact plant biodiversity, population range, and survival?

• What are the ways plants can respond to changing climates?

• How can we engage students and what can we do?

Plant Growth Triggers

TemperatureTemperature

Freeze-thaw cyclesFreeze-thaw cycles

Daylight hoursDaylight hours

PrecipitationPrecipitation

Explain: Driving Questions• How do plants “know” when to start growing

in the spring? What role does climate play?

• How does climate change impact plant biodiversity, population range, and survival?

• What are the ways plants can respond to changing climates?

• How can we engage students and what can we do?

Even with modest change, many plants are in trouble

The proportion of native US vascular plant species that were entirely out of their climate envelopes as a function of the increase in temperature above mean annual temperature. Three methods were used to determine climate envelopes (A, B, C). From Morse, Kutner and Kartesz, 1995.

Hardiness Zone Change

* Ellis, David.(2003) The USDA Plant Hardiness Map, 2003 Edition. American Gardener, American Horticultural Society

*

Future Changes

http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/winmigrating/glwinmig_il.html

Habitat loss compounds the problems

Predicted coastal inundation in the United States in the next few centuries (J. Overpeck, et al., 2006, in Science)

Image: Courtesy of Jeremy Weiss and Jonathan Overpeck, University of Arizona

Explain: Driving Questions• How do plants “know” when to start growing

in the spring? What role does climate play?

• How does climate change impact plant biodiversity, population range, and survival?

• What are the ways plants can respond to changing climates?

• How can we engage students and what can we do?

Nature’s Responses to Climate Change

• Phenotypic plasticity: (i.e. coping) the ability of individual organisms to respond

• Migration/Range Shift: moving to more suitable habitat

• Adaptation: ability of species to respond over time.

• Extinction: inability of organisms to respond to changing environments in time

“It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change!” -- Charles Darwin

Natural migration will be difficult

Barriers to migration (from Abraham J. Miller-Rushing and Richard B. Primack, Plant Talk 2004)

In the past, plants and animals migrated as the climate changed

Today anthropogenic, as well as natural, barriers limit dispersal ability

Migrate where?

In many parts of the

world, natural habitat

patches are few and far

between

Adapt?

Data Sources for CO2: Law Dome ice core and Mauna Loa air samples.Data Source for Temperature: NOAA.

Timing is EverythingPhenology is the science that measures the timing of life cycle events in all organisms.

Climate impacts plant phenology

Changes in plant phenology can impact individual species and ecosystem survival

Coping: Phenological changes• Phenology=the timing of natural

events• Many plant species respond via

plasticity (individual flexibility) to warming temperatures by flowering earlier; earlier flowering dates can also evolve

• Phenological shifts can be detected using herbarium specimens, photos, and naturalists’ diaries

5/30/18685/30/1868

5/30/20055/30/2005

Brief History of Phenology The Japanese have been recording the timing of Cherry Blossoms since 900 CE

Grape harvest dates in Switzerland have been recorded by wine makers since 1480 CE

Linneaus and Marsham are considered the “Fathers of modern phenology” Marsham, kept systematic records of "Indications of spring" on his estate in England

Thomas Jefferson was a keen observer of garden phenology. He referred to the progression of blooms in his garden as acts in a play

Phenology monitoringVariety of ways to make observations

•Via Satellite

•Cloned plant observations

•In-situ observations

Explain: Driving Questions• How do plants “know” when to start growing

in the spring? What role does climate play?

• How does climate change impact plant biodiversity, population range, and survival?

• What are the ways plants can respond to changing climates?

• How can we engage students and what can we do?

Climate Change Education Project

BudBurst Educational Goals• Increase awareness of the impacts of

changing climates on plants and the environment

• Provide a locally relevant context that makes the abstract concept of climate change visible and accessible to students.

• Increase scientific skills and engagement through student participation in an authentic and ongoing research project.

NASA data helps students make connections…

Chicago IL

Concord, MA

…and deepen understanding

For more information

• Project BudBurst: www.budburst.org

• Climate Change Education Project curricula and materials:

Jennifer Schwarz Ballard, PhDAssociate Vice President, EducationChicago Botanic Gardenjschwarz@chicagobotanic.org

Thanks To…

The staff of the Division of Plant Science and Conservation at the Chicago Botanic Garden and collaborators who shared their information and photos for this presentation, especially Kayri Havens-Young, Pati Vitt, Sandra Henderson, and Kirsten Meymaris