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Ni Yunqi Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather State Key Basic Research Development Program SCHeREX Plan(2007-2009) SCHeREX Plan(2007-2009) --South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment Rainfall Experiment

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1.Heavy Rainfall is Main Weather Disaster in China

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The heavy rainfall is the major weather disasters in south of China.The yearly mean grain lost by flooding disasters in recently 10 years in mainland of China is 20 billion Kg and 20 billion RMB in property damage responding to 3-6% GDP

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Days of heavy rainfall is increased in the middle and downstream of Yangtze river since 1990s Days of heavy rainfall is increased as same as above Days of heavy rainfall is decreased in northern China since 70s. New studies showed that

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1961-2003 17 mm Mann-Kendall - 90 (b) (a)

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2 It is also difficult to predict heavy rainfall by using the numerical model.

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The capability of forecasting heavy rainfall by using numerical model is still lower. Ts score for AREM model in 2003 summer AREM_3Dvar meso-scale model HLAFS0.25 operational regional model regional model T213 Global model

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Why ? 1 three dimensional structure, formation mechanism and physical processes of the convective systems with meso scale still is not very clear.

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2 We cant provide a initial condition involving a lot of meso- scale information for numerical model.

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If we want to really understand meso-scale convective systems and improve capability of forecasting heavy rainfall we have to get the data as follows: 1) the meteorological data described three dimensional structure of meso-scale convective system and its variation; 2) parameters of micro-physical processes of inside of could.

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2. Objectives, experimental regions and periods

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1) Objectives 1) Establish a high-space resolution meso-scale observation net with adaptive function; 2) Obtained high time-space resolution meteorological database which can described three dimensional structure of meso-scale system; 3)develping a meso-scale reanalysis system and forming a high time-space resolution reanalysis meteorological fields; 4) improve heavy rainfall prediction by using this database with real time.

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2) Experimental region The experimental region includes the provinces located in southern China and middle and down stream of Yangtze River. It is related to more than ten provinces in South China.

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3) Experimental period It is May- July in 2007 /2008 and maybe extended to 2009.

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3. Design of observation network with meso-scale

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1) Design of meso scale- observation network

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CHeREX Experiment Areas

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CHeREX Four Experiment Areas Huihe Obs.region Central China Delta Obs. Region Southern China Region

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Doppler radars 9 Surface stations 169 Sounding stations 10 Automatic meteo. stations 600 Meteo. Satellite FY-2c and others GPS data & wind profiles

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2) Design of meso scale- observation network in Southern China

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Distribution of annual mean heavy rainfall days in Guandong

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Guandong Province meso-scale observation region EquipmentsNumber Doppler radar operational6 Movable2 Sounding station Operational6 GPS sounding/boundary layer 10 Wind profile3 Surface stationsoperational30 Auto-stations 300 GPS/moisture

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(3) Movable Observation Systems

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154 (11900m )

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35G /20Km

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3830 3830J Movable C-band Doppler Radar

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Wind Profile

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SCHeREX Movable observation system constructed by 1) A airborne drapsounde 2 A movable polirized Doppler Radar with X band; 3 A movable cloud radar with 8mm band 4 A wind profile and a movable sounding station.

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4 Using remote sensing retrieval data make up lack of data, especially in the ocean areas.

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We can retrieval three dimension structure of meso-scale heavy rainfall systems by using remote sensing technique from the former state 973 project. Therefore, we analyze and understand moving and developing of meso-scale heavy rainfall systems by using the products provided by the remote sensing technique.

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A C B 0600 UTC 22 June 2002 Wind driven from clouds at 200-300hpa

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Analysis using remote sensing retrieval data for three dimensional temperature & moisture structure of meso-scale system

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60 80KM Retrieval area of dual-Doppler radars 30 150 0

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CAPPI 1km 2km 3km PPI 11 22 33 44 Retrieval layers in vertical for dual-Doppler radars

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112 113114 115 22 23 24 23 00113 21 22 33114 06 22 15114 08 22 10113 33 23 44114 14 23 05114 25 Dual-Doppler Radar Network in Southern China meso Obs. Region in Southern China meso Obs. Region

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It is conducted as three dimensional structure observation network with meso- scale resolution based on ground-base, air-base and space-base remote sensing techniques.

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Movable Observing System Satellite Radar on plane Drop sounding Processing & Prediction system Movable radar Operation radar

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4. Sensitive Areas for Prediction of Heavy Rainfall and Target Observation

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1) Decision of sensitive areas for prediction of meso-scale heavy rainfall : The sensitive areas for prediction of heavy rainfall involve the upstream region of the heavy rainfall system and the moisture transportation way to the south of the heavy rainfall system. Implement the target observation: Intensive observation region= The sensitive areas + Prediction area

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5. Database and data share of SCHeREX

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6. Headquarters of SCHeREX

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SCHeREX Leaders group SCHeREX Headquarters SCHeREX Office Working group Of meso scale Obs. Working group Of Data processing Working group of Analysis of satellite remote sensing Working group Of database Working group of Quick look & analysis of low frequency Working group of reanalysis & prediction Headquarters Organization Flow Chart

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7. International Collaboration

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1.Japan: Institute of Observation Research for Global Change/JAMSTEC, Dr. Yoshizaki Masanori group. 2. Korea: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences of Seoul National University, Prof. Dong-Kyou Lee. 3. United States: (1) University of Marland, Prof.Da-Lin Zhang; (2) Texas A & M University, Prof.Fuqin Zhang; (3) University of Miami, Dr.Shuyi Chen.

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8. Conclusion & Discussion

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1.In order to obtain high-resolution with time & space three dimensional data we will implement the field experiment of heavy rainfall in southern China in May-July 2007/2009 2.Characteristics of SCHeREX are (1) establish dual-Doppler observation network with four operational Doppler radars and two movable Doppler radars; (2) implement dropsonde detecting from air plane; (3) Using dual polarized Doppler radar to detect the parameters inside of cloud; (4) Increasing sounding density in space by using GPS/boundary layer sounding.

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3. It is necessary to us satellite remote sensing to increase meso-scale observed information including COSMIC; 4. In this experiment we have to develop meso-scale reanalysis system and assimilation and integration different kinds of observed data. As a result, The meso- scale reanalysis field is formed; 5. We must develop interact system between observation system and prediction system. 6. The data from SCHeREX should be shared under certain condition.

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Thank you!