NFIB Roadshow in Houston

PowerPoint Presentation

Small Business Economic Trends

The Small Business Economy

1William DunkelbergNFIB Research Foundation

Small Business Economic RoadshowWednesday, April 13thHouston, TX

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2 Small Business Economic Trends

GDP and Employment

HAVER ANALYTICS7 years4 years Small Business Economic Trends

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5 Small Business Economic TrendsChange in U.S. Employment: Recessions


Missing in GDP


Excess Debt: Paying for the PartyMAINTAINING DEBT/GDP RATIO IN 1999

HAVER ANALYTICS Small Business Economic Trends

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Consumer Net Worth

BELIEVABLE???DOT COMHOUSING Small Business Economic Trends

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Consumer Net Worth Relative to GDP

RECESSIONBUBBLEBUBBLEBUBBLE????AVERAGE 1970-1994 Small Business Economic Trends

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Consumer Interest Income

$3+ TRILLION IN LOST INTEREST INCOME Small Business Economic Trends

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Rating of Government Policy


INTEREST RATES & STOCK PRICES

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EXACTLY HOW HELPFUL IS TRANSPARENCY AND FORWARD GUIDANCE?

But, if inflation were slightly above 2 percent even as unemployment remained far above levels consistent with maximum employment, then the unemployment consideration would dominate because we would be further from the unemployment objective than we are from the inflation objective. NY NABE May, 2014

TAPERING HAS STARTED, ONE TRILLION IN BOND DEMAND DISAPPEARING. WHAT WILL THAT DO TO RATES?18


Young Ben

MORTGAGESTREASURY BONDS Small Business Economic Trends

$3 TRILLION$13 BILLIONEXCESS RESERVES TO LEND$4.5 Small Business Economic Trends

NIRPUNINTENDEDCONSEQUENCES

Small Business Facts90% of all employers have fewer than 20 employees99% have fewer than 500 employeesProduce half of the private sector Gross Domestic ProductEmploy about 50% of private sector employeesProduce 2/3rds of net new jobs Small Business Economic Trends

24 Small Business Economic TrendsPrivate Sector Establishments Births and Deaths(Seasonally Adjusted)


Small Business Optimism Index and Components

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Credit MarketsCredit Availability and Costs

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Prices and Wages

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Employment, Job Creation and Compensation

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JOB GROWTH IN TWO NBER RECOVERY PERIODS, 1983 AND 2009

HAVER ANALYTICSQUARTERS OF RECOVERYAVERAGE 689,000AVERAGE 439,000

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47 Small Business Economic TrendsActual Compensation ChangesNet Percent (Increase Minus Decrease) During Last Three Months (Seasonally Adjusted)


Capital Expenditures and Inventory Investment

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2012 Small Business Problems and Priorities surveyRankProblemPercent "Critical" Percent "Not a Problem"2008 Rank1Cost of Health Insurance52.36.012Uncertainty over Economic Conditions 38.32.8new3Cost of Natural Gas, Propane, Gasoline, Diesel, Fuel Oil34.86.024Uncertainty over Government Actions 35.15.9new5Unreasonable Government Regulations 34.15.766Federal Taxes on Business Income29.56.537Tax Complexity28.86.258Frequent Changes in Federal Tax Laws and Rules24.07.0159Property Taxes (real, inventory or personal property) 24.48.6410State Taxes on Business Income23.89.9775Exporting My Products/Services2.560.37574Undocumented Workers 6.555.2 (modified ) 7073Access to High-Speed Internet751.37472Employee Turnover 438.75171Costs and Frequency of Lawsuits/Threatened Lawsuits 7.938.9(modified ) 6570Using Social Media to Promote Business (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) 4.436.8new69Winning Contracts from Federal/State/Local Governments7.543.67168Competition from Imported Products9.341.96667Protecting Intellectual Property 4.733.86266Credit Rating/Record Errors5.333.967


Real GDP Growth in NBER Expansion Periods

TAXES & REGS Small Business Economic Trends

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FISCAL POLICY


TRICKLE DOWN

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A NEW GLOBAL CHALLENGE?


The Small Business Economy

60William DunkelbergNFIB Research Foundation

Small Business Economic RoadshowWednesday, April 13thHouston, TX

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NFIB Roadshow in Houston

Data & Analytics

Transcript of NFIB Roadshow in Houston