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NextGen and the Weather Information Database March 23, 2009 Jason Tuell Chief, Science Plans Branch...
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Transcript of NextGen and the Weather Information Database March 23, 2009 Jason Tuell Chief, Science Plans Branch...
NextGen and the Weather Information
Database
NextGen and the Weather Information
Database
March 23, 2009
Jason Tuell
Chief, Science Plans Branch
Office of Science and Technology
March 23, 2009
Jason Tuell
Chief, Science Plans Branch
Office of Science and Technology
OverviewOverviewNextGen 101
What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source
Why NOAA?
The roadmap ahead
Broader benefits to NOAA
Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Cube
Summary
NextGen 101
What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source
Why NOAA?
The roadmap ahead
Broader benefits to NOAA
Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Cube
Summary
NextGen 101NextGen 101
NextGen 101NextGen 101
Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information
"A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007
Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information
"A key finding, based on an analysis of several 2005-2006 convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007
NextGen 101NextGen 101
“The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”
Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion.
Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion.
Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden.
Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008
“The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”
Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion.
Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion.
Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden.
Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008
NextGen 101NextGen 101
NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems
NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on:
Providing a multiple user common weather picture
Consistent and reliable weather information
An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube” enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities)
NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems
NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on:
Providing a multiple user common weather picture
Consistent and reliable weather information
An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Cube” enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities)
NextGen 101;Key ThemesNextGen 101;Key Themes
An integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation, analysis, and forecast data available to all system users
Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes
An integrated and nationally consistent common weather picture for observation, analysis, and forecast data available to all system users
Direct integration of weather information into operational decision making processes
NextGen 101;Key ThemesNextGen 101;Key Themes
A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned:
“Network Enabled”…
An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time
Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others
Weather information sharing is two-way
“Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer
Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier
A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned:
“Network Enabled”…
An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time
Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others
Weather information sharing is two-way
“Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer
Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier
NextGen Weather BasicsNextGen Weather Basics
TodayToday NextGenNextGen(new requirements)(new requirements)
Not integrated into aviation Not integrated into aviation decision support systems decision support systems (DSS)(DSS)
Accuracy meets today’s Accuracy meets today’s requirementsrequirements
Low temporal resolution (for Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making aviation decision making purposes)purposes)
Disseminated in minutesDisseminated in minutes
Updated by scheduleUpdated by schedule
Fixed product formats Fixed product formats (graphic or text)(graphic or text)
Totally integrated into DSSTotally integrated into DSS
Better accuracyBetter accuracy
High temporal resolutionHigh temporal resolution
Disseminated in secondsDisseminated in seconds
Updated by events Updated by events
Flexible formatsFlexible formats
What is the WIDB?What is the WIDB?
The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain:
Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)
High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)
Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)Turbulence
Icing
Convection
Ceiling and visibility
Winds and Temperature
The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.
The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain:
Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)
High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)
Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)Turbulence
Icing
Convection
Ceiling and visibility
Winds and Temperature
The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.
What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative Source?
What is the 4-D WeatherSingle Authoritative Source?The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS):
Is only a portion of the WIDB
Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.)
Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA
Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy
Sticky issues:
FAA SAS definition differs internally
Who will own the SAS?
Will the FAA SAS be the NWS SAS?
The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS):Is only a portion of the WIDB
Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.)
Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA
Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy
Sticky issues:
FAA SAS definition differs internally
Who will own the SAS?
Will the FAA SAS be the NWS SAS?
The WIDB:A Conceptual ModelThe WIDB:A Conceptual Model
WIDB
CustomGraphic
Generators
CustomGraphic
Generators
Integration into User DecisionsIntegration into User Decisions
DecisionSupportSystems
DecisionSupportSystems
CustomAlphanumeric
Generators
CustomAlphanumeric
Generators
ObservationsObservationsNumericalModelingSystems
NumericalModelingSystems
StatisticalForecasting
Systems
StatisticalForecasting
Systems
NWSForecaster
NWSForecaster
ForecastingForecasting
Automated ForecastSystems
Automated ForecastSystems
Forecast IntegrationForecast Integration
4D WxSAS
RadarsRadars
AircraftAircraft
SurfaceSurface
SatellitesSatellites
SoundingsSoundings
Why NOAA?Why NOAA?
“NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen”
Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008
“NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen”
Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008
Integrated Work Plan Defines Our RoleIntegrated Work Plan Defines Our Role
14
Why NOAA?Why NOAA?
NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its:
Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation
Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities
Experienced meteorological workforce
Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA
Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD
NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its:
Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation
Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities
Experienced meteorological workforce
Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA
Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD
The Roadmap AheadThe Roadmap Ahead
Initial Operational Capability (2013)
Integrated environmental information sources
Meteorologist oversight of gridded data
Common data standards and protocols
Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools
Intermediate Capability (2016)
Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information
Full Network compatibility of environmental information
Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems
Full Operational Capability (2022)
All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved
High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements
Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups
Initial Operational Capability (2013)
Integrated environmental information sources
Meteorologist oversight of gridded data
Common data standards and protocols
Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools
Intermediate Capability (2016)
Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information
Full Network compatibility of environmental information
Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems
Full Operational Capability (2022)
All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved
High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements
Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups
4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA
4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA
Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services
Consistency challenges not unique to aviation
More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements
Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts
Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies
Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services
Consistency challenges not unique to aviation
More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements
Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts
Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies
4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA
4-D Weather CubeBroader Benefits to NOAA
Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube
Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA
IT and Data Management enhancements
Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation
Support GEOSS requirements
Enhances continuity of operations
Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD
Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube
Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA
IT and Data Management enhancements
Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation
Support GEOSS requirements
Enhances continuity of operations
Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS and NEXRAD
Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Wx Data Cube
Science and Technology Issues and the 4-D Wx Data Cube
Consistency
Convective Modeling – Warn on Forecast
Model Enhancements and Improvements
“System of Systems”
Decision Support Services
Consistency
Convective Modeling – Warn on Forecast
Model Enhancements and Improvements
“System of Systems”
Decision Support Services
The “Consistency” IssueThe “Consistency” Issue
The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy
Consistency Challenges:
Spatial
Internal
“Representativeness”
The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy
Consistency Challenges:
Spatial
Internal
“Representativeness”
Convective ModelingConvective Modeling
Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models
Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4 hours) is key
Resolution requirements based on
Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO)
Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)
Global – outside the NAS
Examples of resolution requirements are detailed on the next slide. These requirements need additional user validation and should not be considered “final”
Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models
Convection in the short term time frame (0-2 or 4 hours) is key
Resolution requirements based on
Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO)
Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)
Global – outside the NAS
Examples of resolution requirements are detailed on the next slide. These requirements need additional user validation and should not be considered “final”
Model Enhancements and Improvements
Model Enhancements and ImprovementsProduction Timelines - (Estimate…not a final product!)
TerminalTerminal Non-Terminal (TBO)Non-Terminal (TBO) GlobalGlobal
ConvectiveConvective Other WxOther Wx
Refresh Refresh RateRate LatencyLatency RefreshRefresh LatencyLatency RefreshRefresh LatencyLatency RefreshRefresh LatencyLatency
0-2 hrs0-2 hrs 5 min 5 min 7.5 min 7.5 min 30 min 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min
2-4 hrs2-4 hrs 7.5 min 7.5 min 30 min 30 min 30 min 30min Every 3 hrs 60 min
4-10 hrs4-10 hrs 30 min 30 min 60 min 30 min 60 min 30 min Every 3 hrs 60 min
10-24 hrs10-24 hrs Every 3 hrs 30 min Every 3
hrs 60 min Every 3 hrs 60 min Every 3
hrs 120 min
24-26 hrs24-26 hrs Every 6 hrs 60 min Every 6
hrs 90 min Every 6 hrs 90 min Every 6
hrs 120 min
60hrs-14 days60hrs-14 days Every 24 hrs
2 hrs after model run
time
Every 24 hrs
2 hrs after model run
time
Every 24 hrs
2 hrs after model run
time
Every 24 hrs
2 hrs after model run
time
ClimatologyClimatology Monthly One Day Monthly One Day Monthly One Day Monthly One Day
SummarySummary
NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced
The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process
NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond
Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube
The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started
NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced
The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process
NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond
Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube
The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started
SummarySummary
There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS
The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation
There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube
There are many existing initiatives that will be leveraged/expanded on as we move toward the initial WIDB and/or the 4-D Wx SAS
The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation
There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube