Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
-
Upload
nipun-trehan -
Category
Documents
-
view
222 -
download
0
Transcript of Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 1/33
Next Generation Wireless Access…From The Indian Perspective
INDIAINDIA
T V Ramachandran, Director General
January 25, 2006 @ Tokyo
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 2/33
2
CONTENTS
THE INDIAN TELECOM SCENARIO
THE REGULATORY LANDSCAPE
THE NEXT GENERATION WIRELESS SCENARIO
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 3/33
3
The Indian Telecom Scenario
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 4/33
4
India – Telecom Unleashed!!
5th largest network in the world
2nd largest among emerging economies
129 state-of-the art Networks on Air: 83 GSM
Services in about 4000 cities & towns and nearlyI00,000 villages
Over 76 million mobile subscribers (GSM + CDMA) –end December 2005 – GSM running at 80% of total
market share
Nearly 5 million mobile subscribers added inDecember 2005 alone
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 5/33
5
The Revenues
Indian Telecom Services (FY 2004-05)
S. No. Service Categories Revenues (in USD billion) Growth (%)
2004-05 2003-04
1. Fixed Access 7.25 7.34 -1
2. Cellular 5.17 3.17 63
3. NLD 1.39 1.14 22
4. ILD 0.85 0.97 -12
5. Internet Access 0.35 0.35 1
6. VSATs 0.09 0.07 29
7. Radio Trunking 0.01 0.01 4
Total Services Revenue 15.13 13.05 16
Source: Voice & Data, July
1USD=Rs. 45
With a YoY growth of 63%, Cellular revenues constitute35% of the total revenues
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 6/33
6
Benefits to the Indian Economy from MobileTelephony
As per a 2005 Ovum study,
Economic benefits that have resulted to India are:
3.6 million jobs generated directly or indirectly.
Employment dependent on the industry expectedto rise by at least 30% over the next 12
months.
Mobile industry generates
USD 3.2 billion per annum for the Government.
An annual GDP contribution of USD 6.9 billion.
All above only from 48 million mobiles and 30% popcoverage!!
With India headed toward 200 mn by 2007,
The Best is yet to come…..
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 7/337
GSM Growth Through the Years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Dec-05
Year ended April
S u b f i g u r e s i n m i l l i o n
Specific points of inflexion on the GrowthTrajectory from Policy Initiatives
NTP’99
3rd & 4th Cellular
CPP
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 8/338
GSM – The Primary Engine of Growth
1 2 4
6
41
59
26
13
2
811
17
10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Dec-05
GSM CDMA
Subsc
rib
ersinMillion
Year Ended MarchOct’04: Mobile–Fixed crossover
April’05: GSM-Fixed crossover
Cellular ~60% of current national tele density –taking overall tele density
from 0.8 in 1994 to 11.43 in 2005
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 9/339
Affordable Cellular Services
1 3
0 .8
3 .50 .9
4 .4
7 .9
3 1 3 1
1 3
5 1 . 5
6 .5
3 .51 .81 .20 .8
33 . 3
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
3 5
1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5
E f f e c t i v e c h a r g e ( i n U S C e n t
s p e r m i n )
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
M o b i l e s u b s c r i b e r b a s e ( i n M i l l i o n )
E f f e c t iv e c h a r g e ( in U S C e n t s P e r m in )S u b s c r ib e r B a s e ( i
3 r d & 4 t h C e ll
O p e r a t o r
C P P
I n t r o d u c e
L o w e ri ng o f A D C
3 0 % t o 1 0 % o f s e
revenueN T P ' 9
Source: TRAI Study paper No 2/2005
Region ARPU (in USD)for Q2 05
Western Europe 37.4
Middle East 22.1
Africa 20.9
Asia-Pac 18.9
Latin America 13.3
Eastern Europe 13.1
US & Canada 9.6
Global Average 21.3
India 8.0
Indian Cellular Tariffs – Lowest in the World
Also Lowest ARPUs
Source: Wireless Asia/ Telegeography Research
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 10/3310
Monthly Spend on Cellular Services
3
5
5
12
38
36
0
0
1
3
27
67
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
$67+
$45-66
$34-44
$23-33
$12-22
$1-11
%
Prepaid
Postpaid
Monthly Spendby IndianCustomers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Brazil Russia India China
Postpaid
Prepaid
% of usersspendingunder USD 12
Source: Mobile Trends 2005/06 Smart Trust
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 11/3311
Industry EBITDA Margins
Despite low ARPUs and heavy burden of tax and
duties on cellular industry, the industryefficiency is good and the average EBITDA
margin is at 33%
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 12/3312
India/ China Comparable Years of Service
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
China India
Million
Year Ended December
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
China 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Subs. (MLN) 0.003 0.01 0.02 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.8
India 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Subs. (MLN)
0.03
0.22 0.8 1.1 1.6 3.1 5.5 10.5 28.2
Growth levels well ahead of China
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 13/3313
The Regulatory Landscape
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 14/3314
Major Policy Initiatives That have FuelledGrowth
1994 1996 1999 2002 20041995 2001 2003
s NTP 1994
s
Private sector participationfor supplementing efforts of
the Government
s License issued for 4 Metros
s Circles opened up for Cellular
s NTP 1999
s Migration torevenue sharing
making industryviable
s BSNL and MTNLthird operator incellular
s Tariff rebalancing
s Open competition
s Technology neutral
regime
s 4th Cellular operator starts operations
s ILD sector opened up
s Internet tele-
phony opened up
In limited way
s License fee reduced
s Separate USO FundEstablished
s Intra-Circle M&Aguidelinesannounced
s Broadband policy
s Start of operationsin 4 Metros
s
License issued for 20 circles
s 4th cellular licenseissued
s CPP introduced
s Unified access license
regime introduceds IUC implemented
s Explosive growth of wireless
s Start of operationsof cellular services incircles
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 15/3315
Major Policy initiatives in 2005
Direct Interconnectivity in Four Circles – First step towardsIndia One.
FDI limit increased to 74%.
Indigenous manufacturing by global players initiated.
Entry fee for NLD/ ILD licenses reduced.
Provision of Internet telephony, Internet services andBroadband services by Access Providers.
TRAI’s draft Regulation on Multi-Operator Multi ServiceIntelligent Network Platform.
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 16/3316
On The Anvil….
These policies will facilitate the next quantum leapin Indian Telecom Reforms
Assistance from USO Fund for creating cellular infrastructure in remote/ unserved areas
Introduction of holistic Unified Licensing.
Switch over to a Revenue Share ADC Regime and merger with the USO Fund.
Reduction in levies and duties on telecom
Introduce uniform Nationwide Guidelines for variousprocedures and clearances
Light touch Regulation Introduction of one tariff for all DLD calls (India One)
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 17/3317
The Next Generation Wireless Scenario
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 18/3318
Emerging Markets Will be
Wireless-centric and not PC-centric.
C.K. Prahalad, Renowned Economist
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 19/3319
Engines of Wireless Growth in India
BoomingKnowledge
Sector-major
global hub for IT
enabled services.
BurgeoningMiddle Class- 100 MN added
between 1995-
2002
Rising IncomeLevels - 4th
largest economy
after USA, China
& Japan (in terms
of PPP)
GrowingUrbanization - as infrastructure
develops rural
India will become
increasingly
mainstream
Younger Population- 51%
population below
age of 35
High GDPGrowth - 6% p.a.
in next 5-10
years.
GROWTH
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 20/3320
Mobile has fast moved from a class service to a mass service for the common
man – fuelled by continuously falling tariffs, increased coverage, customizedservice offerings
The real revolution will come from the continuous growth of the low income groupmarket
New & innovative use by a varied customer base has made mobile services thekey plank for infrastructure & economic development
Doctors deliver healthcarethrough GSM GPRS
Farmers track prices of Agricultural Produce
Fishermen call in their Catch
India’s Masses are Fuelling The MobileRevolution
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 21/3321
Value Added Services in India
Voice will increasingly become a commodity, real revenues will
come from data.
In 2003, Mobile Data Services accounted for 5.4% of cellular
revenues-most of this from SMS traffic.
Going forward, data revenues expected to touch USD 3.2 Billion
by 2008 representing 20.5% of the total cellular revenues of USD
15.61 Billion in that year ….Gartner Research
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 22/3322
Popular Value Added Services In India
health
tips
ringtones
mobile gaming
music
astrology
jokes
PTT
news email
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 23/33
23
Price of Value Added Services
0.04
0.06
0.13
0.15 0.15
0.23
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
SMS Picture
Messages
Logos Ringtones MMS Polyphonic
Ringtone
Source: Portio Research
Low prices of VAS enabled increased usage by Indiansubscribers
US$
C S
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 24/33
24
Consumer Awareness For Data Services InIndia
4
5
7
10
27
62
76
90
0 20 40 60 80 100
MMS
M-banking
Data Services
Instant Access
Call Waiting
Voice Mail
Roaming
Source: Portio Research
Increasing Demand for Value Added
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 25/33
25
Increasing Demand for Value AddedServices
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
China Hong Kong S.Korea Japan India
% o
f S u b s
Games Internet MMS Music
Source: Mobile Trends 2005/06 Smart Trust
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 26/33
26
Growth of Value Added Services in India
Mobile music industry contributes 5% of the total operator revenues Expected to grow nearly 23% by 2010.
Daily downloads of around 1 million ringtones and ringback tones.
Average cost: 20 US Cents per ringtone.
Monthly growth rate of ringtones and ring back tones: 20-25%.
During festive season the figures increase sharply…..
This Diwali -a six fold increase in value added service
downloads, over a normal day.
Delhi circle alone saw 8.5 million SMSs being exchanged onDiwali day as against 5.5 million last year.
Indian mobile gaming market was at US$ 26 million in 2004
– Expected to grow by nearly 66% in the next 5 years to reach $336
million by 2009.
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 27/33
27
Revenues From Value Added Services
Source: PWC Indian GSM Cellular Benchmarking Study 2004
VAS shows promising trends, share in total net service
revenue increasing continuously
S M S C l ip O t h e r
VAS Revenue compositionfor 2004 (in %)
8%
65%27%9%
3%
7%
10% 8%
9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2003 2004
Postpaid Prepaid Total
VAS Revenue as % to NetService Revenue
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 28/33
28
SMS Volumes
12.320.6
33.1
50.7
89.4
140.2
180
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
SMSVolumesinb
illion
Expected to grow in the next five years due to – falling prices,
increasing mobile penetration,
widening user demographic and
increasing number of SMS based services.
Source: Portio Research
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 29/33
29
Growth Of Data Market
Data market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 77% over CY 04-10
Major contributing factors will be
Burgeoning youth population (60% of population below 30 yrs)
Fast rising consumption and infotainment expenditure pie
Social affinity to music and BollywoodSource: Lehman Brothers Global Equity Research
3G (Next Generation Wireless) will happen
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 30/33
30
3G (Next Generation Wireless) will happen
soon…
India’s path towards 3G expected through the IMT2000 Core Band.
GSM being 80% of the market,3GSM (WCDMA)expected to be the major force in 3G.
3G Spectrum Guidelines expected in Q1 06.
Tenders already floated by some companies.
Rollout expected before Q1 07.
3G in India will help achieve Broadband penetration andmitigate spectrum availability problems
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 31/33
31
Importance & Relevance of 3G for India
3G will facilitate higher speed & data throughputs, enable delivery of wide
range of multimedia services.
3G both relevant & important for India as:
Higher voice capacity of 3G spectrum (4x-5x) can
• Ease spectrum constraint in metros & other big cities.
• Serve as an ideal platform to deliver low cost voice telephony as it is far
more cost effective on a per erlang basis than 2G.
It will be a valuable tool to reach out into rural areas to achieve thebroadband objectives of the Government as well as to undertake keysocial initiatives such as E-Education, Tele medicine, etc.
It will enhance India’s competitiveness in ITES / BPO segment.
It’s hi-speed data capabilities will fulfill the content rich mobility experience that will increasingly be demanded in urban & metropolitan markets.
Next Generation Wireless will fuel India’s
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 32/33
32
Next Generation Wireless will fuel India smobile growth
0
50
100
150
200
9 10 11 12 13
China India
Year Ended December
Million
China 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Subs. (MLN 6.8 13.2 24 43 85
YoY (%) 94 82 79 98India 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Subs. (MLN 28 48 76 125 200
YoY (%) 71 56 67 60
Even at lower growth rates vis-à-vis China, India has the
potential to achieve 200 million subs by 2007
India Versus China – Future Potential
8/4/2019 Next Generation Wireless Access-Tokyo
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/next-generation-wireless-access-tokyo 33/33
Thank [email protected]