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CNI Publications; Weekly Plattern Weekly summary

Rolls is on hence there is volatility. We expect this will continue till Monday post which we see there could be smart recovery till Budget. Nifty may scale to 9200 9300 on Budget. There is huge negativity in the street. This itself could be a big driver. No 1 knows what to expect from UNION BUDGET and how this will help the country. CNI will publish its likely BUDGET next week in special features. Market rally was very specific without giving any gains to small and retail investors. In fact, there is big fear in the street that Nifty might correct 10% post Budget as street believes that the budget expectations are priced in. However I am very clear in my mind that Govt is set to push reforms through Budget and post budget through ordinances. Reversal of GAAR, rate cut and falling inflation will help Govt to achieve the motives. Defence and Railways will be 2 sectors I would bet on. Can suggest to add even MFG companies. I will avoid metal, auto, real estate and infra stocks. Real estate is connected with real income growth and infra depends on sector policy which can take hit on any given day. There cannot be overall growth without major sectors participating. I would stick with bottom up approach and stock specific. Defence, Railway, Engg, small IT, Plastic engg, retail and offshore will be my best bets. I will not name companies but you can identify. Long considered a laggard, India is seeing a lift in its stock market as multinational companies look to expand operations there or start new ones -nytimes. This shows how the world is looking at INDIA. The fact however remains what I have said in the first para.

Change of the week

20-Feb-15 Rise /Gain

Sensex 29231

Nifty 8833

FII DII 16-Feb-15 (1.98) 280.7

18-Feb-14 3958 327.8

19-Feb-15 1542 (195.7)

20-Feb-15 (89.4) 204.8

Total 5409 618.3

Turnover (` Cr)

FII DII Combined

13-Feb-15 41,901.1 13,236.7 55,137 13-Feb-15 Advances Declines Ratio

721 718 1.00

Editorial Vol -1, No-I, 20 Feb, 2015, 09 pages

137

27

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Will these bears heed this advice? In a market where both are required to make it a fun place, seems difficult. At every rise they feel, the bears ,I mean, that this is it and indulge in shorting. Similarly at every fall the bulls stock up their positions. Hence the tussle, eternal. Something of this nature is being played out in the arena these days. A kind of tug-of-war. Who will win...let us wait and watch but the bias is in favour of the bulls. Corrections will ensue which will help remove weak hands and make the markets stronger as they garner strength for the next move up. There are still enough sceptics in this market making my case for rising markets stronger. The markets will continue to defy these bears and only when the staunchest bear turns bull will the markets turn. Still some time off though Liquidity continues to flood the market. Japan may introduce yet another stimulus. Just imagine what it can do to a system already awash in liquidity. Where is the question of markets falling in such conditions. Those in a country like India with falling inflation, interest rates and rising growth. Difficult unless the govt decides to commit harakiri. Expiry and budgets both around the corner. Both catalysts and ingredients for volatility. Fasten your seat belts folks...turbulence ahead. At the end the bulls will be singing...him late hai to of an se kashti nikal ke...is desh KO rakhna mere bullo sambhal ke. Just 18 months back I had told you JAPAN will lead the global rally as JAPAN is set to recover very fast. My predictions came true. JAPAN grew fastest which is seen from exports nos and no of IPO in JAPAN. Irrespective of US QE hot money is going out of US and now getting shifter to 3 new destinations. JAPAN, Europe and INDIA. India no one could match my predictions from time to time. Now let me tell you EUROPE will be recovering very fast post QE from EUROPE. But for us INDIA is the market to remain invested. My Bellard Pier story is still far away. Except few operators and FII no 1 could make big money so far in INDIA even though Nifty had moved from 6000 to

9000. So long as retail do not get exit from earlier stuck stocks they will not return in the market 5 Top Gainer Stock 20-Feb-15 16-Feb-15 % Gain SUZLON ENERGY 25.6 19.1 33.6

JINDAL STE 193.9 151.9 27.6

PIPAVAV DOC 83.3 65.3 27.5

JPPOWER 12.2 10.6 15.4

IDBI BANK 76.2 67.4 13.1 5 Top Losers Stock 20-Feb-15 16-Feb-15 % Loss CESC LTD 612.7 697.9 12.2

RASOYA PROTEIN 0.55 0.62 11.2

BALKRISH IND 652.1 708.5 7.9

KAJARIA CER 747.3 807.4 7.4

HEROMOTOCO 2659.8 2852.5 6.7

Top 5 Picks By CNI 'A' Group

Company

COAL

PNB

ICICI

HINDALCO

HERO HONDA Top 5 Picks By CNI 'B' Group

Company

MUKUND ENG

KSB PUMP

RASI ELECTRODES

CMI

RMCL

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My suggestion to the F M to all some grass root changes and kill the IPO monopoly of big merchant bankers. They should allow Rs 10 kind IPO which will go to many small entrepreneurs looking to grow in INDIA and this is the only way we can combat CHINA in terms of growth. IF you allow only IPO sizes of 700 to 1000 crs then for sure the disequilibrium of wealth will rise further which is not the agenda of MODI Govt. Nifty has come close to 9000 and the call put ratio suggest crossing 9000 could be a stretched view. We are now entering the settlement week and hence there will be volatility. If we cross 8930 then for sure we will cross 9000 in this settlement and in that case we can see 9200 on expiry. As regards traders they are short in market as they expect market to fall 10% post BUDGET. By and large people are expecting good budget but they do not know the definition of good budget. I feel the process of reforms have begun and the rate cut era has started hence expecting this kind of correction and going short is suicidal. Buy dips should be your strategy. We have not increased exposure in A gr shares since last 2 months as it is not paying returns. Traders are screwed everywhere. What is important for me to see the reforms process. COAL auction will generate huge money which no Govt in India had even dreamed. This auction is online. Transparent. The money will go dyeing states. States will use these funds for states development and this will lead to huge upside for the country as state finances needs to improve if INDIA needs to grow faster. I believe in next 12 months we may see 8 pc GDP growth and be default we can see Nifty at 12000 in 12 months. There are still 100s of B gr stocks which will give 500 to 1000% returns. Please remind many stocks which I had recommended in the past have given 1000% returns. Which stocks I will not spell out in this session any more. Ruk Jana nahi tu kahin haar ke... Ke kaanto pe chal ke milenge saye bahar ke...a very nice and motivating song, wonderfully rendered by the legend Kishor Kumar. But going continuously short on the market and then singing this would not help. The pain of seeing ones pile of money depleting on a daily basis is hell and stress can cause piles(double trouble what). Respect the market and respect price. Bhav Bhagwan hai is a tenet one must never forget. The same culprits or the usual suspects are still making headlines. China,Greece and Russia...China is preparing for a soft landing but will it manage? Talks of devaluing the yuan are doing rounds. Exports will pick up but other satellite countries will suffer,suffer badly. Indian textile cos will bear the brunt. Importing cos will be the hardest hit and GDP estimates will take a dip. Greece has really been Euro's Achilles heel and continues to dog and bog Europe. Demands of the Troika are stiff which the new Premier is trying to water down. Both parties know the dangers and so a positive outcome is likely...will take time but will happen. Russia talks with a forked tongue. Difficult to gauge next move but they know this is not the time for a full faced face off. Not with oil prices being what they are. Hopes built on budget. Holds promise. Post the Delhi drubbing the govt knows it must now deliver else the base it us creating will soon wither away. This it cannot afford. The whole world and the neighbors expect a correction post budget. What if it does not. The blow out budget,which is expected,may prompt new retail investors to enter the fray. This in addition to FII flows will propel the markets to rise as if on steroids. Is there any point in then saying Kaanta laga,hai laga..bungle ke peechhey Teri teji peechhey... Oil heading for 70 usd and INDIAN Govt investing Rs 1.5 lac crs in OIL exploration. Where is the infrastructure..? Will Govt invite Tide Water USA, Bofkalis Netherland and Bourbon France to provide support system to E and P players. GOSL will definitely a stock to watch for next 1 decade being the only co from

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INDIA to cater this kind of services. Best part is that this co withstood the competition from above 3 MNC's for over a decade which means this co has proved on capability. There is something coming in BUDGET for this sector as GOVT has stressed for investment Market back to 8800. We had told you earlier Delhi election was just a trigger to panic the traders and hit their stop-losses. Punters accumulated stocks at lower levels. Budget just 15 days away and we believe nifty will see new highs in coming days. Bank nifty will reverse and midcap will fly. So stay invested

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Next Week’s Events

GLOBAL STORY Against all odd market reversed back to 8900. It was just CNI conviction that market will reverse and once again we- re bank on target. Next Saturday is budget day market is open we believe market will stay volatile in current week so advise to stay away from street and concentrate on specific stock. Completely avoid F&O. We believe budget is just passing through trigger and market may fall by 200-300 pts after budget. So watch out.

The Dow and S&P 500 ended at record highs on Friday while the Nasdaq notched an eighth straight day of gains after Greek and euro zone finance ministers reached a deal to extend heavily indebted Greece's financial

Rolls is on hence there is volatility. We expect this will continue till Monday post which we see there could be smart recovery till Budget. Nifty may scale to 9200 9300 on Budget. There is huge negativity in the street. This itself could be a big driver. No 1 knows what to expect from UNION BUDGET and how this will help the country. CNI will publish its likely BUDGET next week in special features.

Many mid-cap have started rallying 20-30% in a week. Suzlon, Pipavav, JPPOWER all are rallying. Same way many CNI recommended stock a year before like walchand at 55 is CMP 250, Brigade at 60 cmp 160 and tata metaliks at 40 cmp 140. So we advise to just put your money in midcap stock as large cap will take your 15-20% of capital in a series. Sign on to CNI exclusive street call to get our latest stock advise.

Have a good weekend.

Monday, 23-Feb-2015

Existing Home Sales

Tuesday,24-Feb-2015

Consumer Confidence S&P Case-shiller HPI

Wednesday,25-Feb-2015

New Home Sales EIA Petroleum Status

Thursday,26-Feb-2015

Jobless Claim Durable Goods

Friday, 27-Feb-2015

GDP

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Global Indices Country Indices Date Index Net Change Change

Hong Kong Hang Seng 20/2 24,832.08 +47.20 +0.19

Singapore Straits Times 20/2 3,435.66 +19.75 +0.58

South Korea Seoul Composite 20/2 4,955.97 +31.27 +0.63

United States NASDAQ 20/2 18,140.44 +154.67 +0.86

United States DJIA 20/2 2,110.30 +12.85 +0.61

United States S&P 500 20/2 18,332.30 +67.51 +0.37

Japan Nikkei 225 20/2 6,915.20 +26.30 +0.38

United Kingdom FTSE 100 20/2 1,807.87 -2.22 -0.12

Malaysia KLSE Composite 20/2 5,400.10 +9.66 +0.18

Indonesia Jakarta Composite 20/2 1,603.45 +3.49 +0.22

Thailand SET 20/2 4,830.90 -2.38 -0.05

France CAC 40 20/2 11,050.64 +48.70 +0.44

Germany DAX 20/2 9,436.74 +48.16 +0.51

Argentina MerVal 20/2 51,237.70 -56.33 -0.11

Brazil Bovespa 20/2 43,551.26 +319.84 +0.74

Mexico IPC 20/2 2,450.94 +24.89 +1.03

Austria ATX 20/2 3,624.71 -0.26 -0.01

Belgium BEL-20 20/2 469.85 +0.06 +0.01

Netherlands AEX General 20/2 1,103.66 -2.44 -0.22

Spain Madrid General 20/2 8,892.17 -8.01 -0.09

Switzerland Swiss Market 20/2 5,845.63 -24.20 -0.41

Australia All Ordinaries 20/2 3,246.91 +24.54 +0.76

China Shanghai Composite 20/2 7,825.39 +21.94 +0.28

Philippines PSE Composite 20/2 7,314.91 +8.74 +0.12

Sri Lanka All Share 20/2 9,529.51 +33.20 +0.35

Taiwan Taiwan Weighted 20/2 1,310.82 +3.21 +0.25

East Egypt CMA 20/2 1,961.45 +3.22 +0.16

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Bulk deal Company Name Date BSE Code Client Name Deal Type Quantity Price (Rs)

ACKNIT 20-Feb-15 530043 KALABEN PUSHKARABHAI B 10000 55.6

ACKNIT 20-Feb-15 530043 PRAKASH ASHOKKUMAR R B 31372 61.17

ACKNIT 20-Feb-15 530043 KALABEN PUSHKARABHAI S 12607 62.08

ACKNIT 20-Feb-15 530043 PRAKASH ASHOKKUMAR R S 31475 57.63

AMSONS 20-Feb-15 538861 VINAHAST TRADING PRI B 80000 6.29

AMSONS 20-Feb-15 538861 VINAHAST TRADING PRI S 50000 5.39

AMSONS 20-Feb-15 538861 BATHLA AND COMPANY P S 120000 6.35

BHANDHOS 20-Feb-15 512608 VALUE PLUS SHARES N B 41166 31.16

BHANDHOS 20-Feb-15 512608 VALUE PLUS SHARES N S 74849 30.21

CHMBBRW 20-Feb-15 512301 NEERAJ CHAWLA S 73638 10.2

Titagarh Wagons Limited 20-Feb-15 TWL N.K. SECURITIES B 153818 617.79

Titagarh Wagons Limited 20-Feb-15 TWL AJAY ASSET MANAGEMEN S 112295 630.42

Titagarh Wagons Limited 20-Feb-15 TWL AXIS EQUITIES PRIVAT S 137326 621.92

Titagarh Wagons Limited 20-Feb-15 TWL ESTEE ADVISORS PVT L S 129394 618.06

Titagarh Wagons Limited 20-Feb-15 TWL N.K. SECURITIES S 153818 618.12

Hero MotoCorp Limited 19-Feb-15 HEROMOTOCO BRIJ MOHAN LAL OM PA S 3546400 2664.01

Hero MotoCorp Limited 19-Feb-15 HEROMOTOCO LAZARD ASSET MANAGEM B 1503000 2664.04

KSS Limited 19-Feb-15 KSERASERA RAMESHKUMAR KALIDAS B 727035 3.86

KSS Limited 19-Feb-15 KSERASERA RAMESHKUMAR KALIDAS S 1099000 3.93

LML Ltd. 19-Feb-15 LML ANJALI CAPFIN PRIVAT S 900000 8.48

Atlas Cycles (Haryana) 18-Feb-15 ATLASCYCLE URMILA DOSHI B 21197 253.88

Atlas Cycles (Haryana) 18-Feb-15 ATLASCYCLE URMILA DOSHI S 28197 251.54

Century Plyboards (Ind 18-Feb-15 CENTURYPLY PREM KUMAR BHAJANKA S 2000000 206.85

Hero MotoCorp Limited 18-Feb-15 HEROMOTOCO BRIJ MOHAN LAL OM PA S 7000000 2664.93

KSS Limited 18-Feb-15 KSERASERA RAMESHKUMAR KALIDAS S 1075000 3.8

Manaksia Limited 18-Feb-15 MANAKSIA SUBHAM AGARWAL B 1100000 64

Manaksia Limited 18-Feb-15 MANAKSIA PONNI TREXIM PVT LTD S 1100000 64

Mukta Arts Ltd 18-Feb-15 MUKTAARTS SHAH & SHAH B 155632 25.01

Mukta Arts Ltd 18-Feb-15 MUKTAARTS SHAH & SHAH S 140601 25.05

Repro India Limited 18-Feb-15 REPRO VIJAY KISHANLAL KEDI B 106379 402.19

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Call put option Option Month - PUT CALL

Strike Price Volume Best Buy

Best Sell

LTP OI Change OI(%)

Volume Best Buy

Best Sell

LTP OI Change OI(%)

February - 8250.00 6800 1.75 2.5 2.35 32900 -0.38 0 466.5 634.55 407 1900 0

February - 8300.00 1621100 2.3 2.45 2.3 2131850 -4.1 60500 544.1 548.1 547 245900 -4.44

February - 8350.00 11450 2.75 2.95 3 34125 -14.58 0 365 534.95 324.45 100 0

February - 8400.00 4218075 2.95 3.05 2.95 3070450 -1.81 34975 446.3 450.3 449.5 210075 -5.29

February - 8450.00 42050 2.9 3.85 3.85 240225 -5.45 200 380.6 401.95 401 2400 -5.88

February - 8500.00 6804050 4.7 4.9 4.7 3612525 -6.82 248200 344.4 350.8 348.05 465700 -2.15

February - 8550.00 352550 6.15 6.5 6.15 108900 -5.51 1375 288.9 337.6 297.7 7475 -5.08

February - 8600.00 11404950 8.9 8.95 8.95 3891100 5.71 437800 250.2 253.95 253.65 631750 -15.37

February - 8650.00 1167800 14.15 14.35 14.1 230350 17.92 15450 200 212.75 207.9 42050 -15.94

February - 8700.00 20920350 23 23.3 23 3894375 4.21 2010550 164.3 166.4 166.4 1623975 -12.42

February - 8750.00 2431625 33.75 34 34.1 565975 19.04 66975 128.1 130 134.8 72225 -5.03

February - 8800.00 35795150 51.75 52.2 52.15 4301525 -0.28 10544950 97.65 98 98 2901950 7.87

February - 8850.00 2796725 73 74 73 480875 3.55 1606025 69.3 70.4 70 609325 56.39

February - 8900.00 19750000 98.15 99.3 99.35 2613425 -9.77 36962850 49 49.8 49.75 5403575 16.78

February - 8950.00 223325 130.45 134 130.2 71075 11.01 2945450 31.35 31.8 32 506750 38.74

February - 9000.00 3553900 166.95 168 167.3 1934825 -4.58 35122350 20.4 20.45 20.45 7303175 19.99

February - 9050.00 3675 195.5 254.5 210 7375 5.73 1594350 12.6 12.75 12.6 292050 42.34

February - 9100.00 167300 250.35 258.2 257 169900 -0.76 15815800 7.1 7.2 7.1 4146650 13.37

February - 9150.00 325 62.5 348.95 300.6 200 0 854350 3.75 4 3.7 683850 31

February - 9200.00 66350 344 347.85 348.1 359225 -0.41 8601825 3.1 3.2 3.1 3954225 3.12

February - 9250.00 0 331 458.95 385 425 0 137175 2.15 2.25 2.25 165850 5

February - 9300.00 15900 443.25 450.45 446.9 45400 2.31 2001950 1.6 1.7 1.45 2894450 -0.85

February - 9350.00 0 239.85 558.95 470 500 0 42775 1.4 1.6 1.4 40575 9.96

February - 9400.00 4700 541.5 550.25 549.8 54925 0.27 479225 1.25 1.35 1.25 1119000 -1.36

February - 9450.00 0 331.9 743.1 0 0 0 100 0.85 1.7 0.75 8825 -1.12

February - 9500.00 89750 643.55 647.9 645.1 384425 -8.31 343300 1 1.05 1.05 1239425 -6.39

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DISCLAIMER STATEMENT

This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this document is solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. The intent of this document is not in recommender nature. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Neither the Firm nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Copyright in this document vests exclusively with CNI Research Ltd.

Name of Editor: Minit jhaveri

Publisher: Mr. Kishor Ostwal 120, Gokul Arcade, Sahar Road, Vile Parle (East), Mumbai-400057 Tel No: 022-28220323/28383889, Fax No: +91-22-28242220 E-Mail at: chamatcar@chamatcar.com

Printer: Owner: Place of Publication KOKILA GRAPHICS CNI Research Ltd A-120, Gokul Arcade, 1st Floor, opp Garware House, Printing Press Address: Sahar Road, Vile Parle (E) Gala No-12, Gr. Floor, Mumbai- 400057 Bliss Compound, Nivetia Road, Malad (East), Mumbai-400 097