Business SummaryNewcrest Mining Limited (NCM) is a gold producer with its portfolio located inAustralia, the Pacific region, Asia and Africa. Newcrest has interests in sixproduction provinces in four countries and a portfolio of brown and greenfieldexploration projects. Group Mineral Resources are estimated at 140Moz Au,20Mt Cu and 130Moz Ag, and reserves are 75Moz Au, 11Mt Cu and 74MozAg.

Latest ResearchAlert: Gosowong to go

Indonesia exit — As expected, NCM has agreed to divest its 75% stake inthe noncore Gosowong mine in Indonesia following a strategic review. Webelieve the deal is a positive, allowing NCM to upgrade its portfolio andsimplify the geographies in which it operates.

For more information see research 3 Feb 2020.

GICS - Materials

Newcrest Mining Limited

ASX Code: NCM Price: $28.99 12 Mth Target Price: $31.30 Rating: Neutral

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Snapshot

DateMarket Cap.Shares on issue12 Month High12 Month Low

9 February 2020$22,289m768.8m$38.87$23.53

RatingRating12 Mth Target Price

Capital GainGross Yield

Implied Total Return

Neutral$31.308.4%1.2%9.6%

Investment FundamentalsFYE 30 Jun 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F

Profit $m 784.0 1,193.0 1,259.0 1,651.0Profit (norm)* $m 784.0 1,193.0 1,259.0 1,651.0

EPS* ¢ 102.0 155.0 164.0 214.0EPS Growth % 32.5 52.0 5.8 30.5P/E* x 28.3 18.6 17.6 13.5P/E Relative % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DPS ¢ 31.0 22.0 34.0 46.0Yield % 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.6Franking % 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0* Adjusted for goodwill and unusual itemsSource: Based on Citi estimates

Share Price Chart

Total Return on $10,000 Investment

Profit & Loss ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Sales Revenue 4,344 4,437 4,520 4,819 5,336Total Revenue ex. Int. 4,425 4,476 4,520 5,043 5,397EBITDA 1,673 1,740 1,845 1,978 2,381Depreciation & Amort. -693 -940 -896 -1,070 -1,064Goodwill Amortisation -- -- -- -- --EBIT 980 800 949 908 1,318Net Interest -189 -198 -172 -154 -134Profit Before Tax 791 602 777 754 1,184Income Tax -252 -163 -235 -160 -388Outside Equity Int. -14 -4 -14 -9 4Profit after Tax 525 435 528 584 800Significant Items after Tax 21 12 -127 -311 --Reported Profit after Tax 546 447 400 273 800Preferred Dividends -- -- -- -- --

Cash Flow ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Receipts from Customers 4,319 4,487 4,562 -- --Funds from Operations 1,787 1,892 2,107 -- --Net Operating Cashflow 1,589 1,671 1,907 1,940 2,120Capex -610 -333 -715 -607 -439Acquisitions & Investments -- -- -82 -372 -40Sale of Invest. & Subsid. 111 -- -35 65 --Net Investing Cashflow -503 -575 -946 -1,127 -974Proceeds from Issues -- -- -- -- --Dividends Paid -24 -43 -144 -175 -187Net Financing Cashflow -986 -1,291 -390 -189 -224Net Increase Cash 100 -195 571 624 923Cash at Beginning 141 267 69 666 1,359Exchange Rate Adjust. 17 -- -- -- --Cash at End 258 71 640 1,289 2,281

Ratios and Substantial Shareholders2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Profitability RatiosEBITDA Margin % 38.51 39.21 40.81 41.04 44.63EBIT Margin % 22.56 18.03 21.00 18.84 24.69Net Profit Margin % 12.09 9.80 11.68 12.13 14.99Return on Equity % 5.89 4.59 5.45 5.84 7.41Return on Assets % 4.32 3.84 4.35 4.53 5.48

Debt/Safety RatiosNet Debt/Equity % 41.52 29.59 19.90 13.94 5.18Interest Cover x 5.19 4.04 5.53 5.89 9.83

Top 5 Substantial ShareholdersBlackRock Group 12.3%Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd 7.8%The Vanguard Group,Inc 5.0%

Balance Sheet ($M)2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A

Cash & Equivalent 258 71 640 1,289 2,281Receivables 206 180 114 104 192Inventories 806 734 723 750 821Other Current Assets 114 96 147 119 101Current Assets 1,384 1,081 1,624 2,262 3,397Prop. Plant & Equipment 10,849 11,444 11,037 10,537 10,645Intangibles 79 59 46 57 47Other Non-Current Assets 114 96 147 119 101Non-Current Assets 13,984 13,989 13,435 13,270 13,482Total Assets 15,368 15,070 15,059 15,532 16,879Interest Bearing Debt 4,019 2,909 2,588 2,697 2,845Other Liabilities 2,290 2,573 2,676 2,740 3,153Total Liabilities 6,309 5,482 5,264 5,436 5,997Net Assets 9,059 9,588 9,795 10,096 10,881Share Capital 13,584 15,710 15,155 15,771 16,599Reserves 153 -374 -69 -262 -607Retained Earnings -4,819 -5,854 -5,400 -5,503 -5,202Outside Equity Int. 141 106 109 91 91Total Shareholders Equity 9,059 9,588 9,795 10,096 10,881

Current Analyst Recommendations *

* Source: Morningstar. This chart shows the spread of recommendations from thosebroker analyst's in Australia with research coverage of this stock.

Principals & DirectorsPrincipals

Company Secretary Mrs Claire HannonMs Francesca Lee

Directors

Mr Sandeep Biswas(Chief Executive Officer,Managing Director)Mr Philip Stanley Aiken(Non-Executive Director)Mr Peter William Tomsett(Non-Executive Director)Mr Peter Algernon Franc Hay(Non-Executive Director,Non-ExecutiveChairman)Ms Vickki Anne McFadden(Non-Executive Director)Mr Gerard Bond(Chief Financial Officer,Finance Director,ExecutiveDirector)Dr Roger John Higgins(Non-Executive Director)Dr Xiaoling Liu(Non-Executive Director)

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Newcrest Mining Limited

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