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Newbury Financial Forecast: Users’ Guide and Assumptions
February 2018
Edward J. Collins, Jr. Center for Public Management ___________________________________________________________
McCORMACK GRADUATE SCHOOL OF POLICY AND GLOBAL STUDIES ___________________________________________________________
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Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 1
Revenue Projections ..................................................................................................................................... 3
Property Tax Levy ...................................................................................................................................... 3
State Aid Cherry Sheet .............................................................................................................................. 4
Chapter 70 ............................................................................................................................................. 4
Unrestricted General Government Aid (UGGA) .................................................................................... 4
Veterans Benefits and Exemptions for Veterans and Elderly ............................................................... 5
State Owned Land ................................................................................................................................. 5
Aid to Public Libraries ........................................................................................................................... 5
Local Estimated Receipts .......................................................................................................................... 5
Enterprise Funds ....................................................................................................................................... 5
Ambulance ............................................................................................................................................ 5
Available Funds ......................................................................................................................................... 6
Available Funds for Town Meeting Articles .......................................................................................... 6
Free Cash ................................................................................................................................................... 6
Free Cash for Reserves, Capital and Other Purposes ............................................................................ 6
Expenditure Projections ................................................................................................................................ 7
Municipal Departments ............................................................................................................................ 7
Education .................................................................................................................................................. 7
Triton Regional School District .............................................................................................................. 7
Whittier Regional .................................................................................................................................. 7
Essex Technical ...................................................................................................................................... 7
Debt Service .............................................................................................................................................. 8
Debt Service Non-Exempt ..................................................................................................................... 8
Debt Service Exempt ............................................................................................................................. 8
Employee Benefits .................................................................................................................................... 8
Retirement ............................................................................................................................................ 8
Unemployment ..................................................................................................................................... 8
Health Insurance ................................................................................................................................... 8
Dental and Life Insurance ..................................................................................................................... 8
Medicare ............................................................................................................................................... 8
Property/Liability Insurances .................................................................................................................... 9
Workers Compensation/Property/Liability ........................................................................................... 9
Enterprise Funds ....................................................................................................................................... 9
Other Amounts to be Raised ..................................................................................................................... 9
State and County Assessments ................................................................................................................. 9
Free Cash Articles .................................................................................................................................... 10
Town Hall Lease .................................................................................................................................. 10
Storm Water Management ................................................................................................................. 10
Other Town Meeting Articles .............................................................................................................. 10
Free Cash – Capital Outlay .................................................................................................................. 10
Articles from Other Available Funds ....................................................................................................... 10
Plum Island Debt Service .................................................................................................................... 10
PEG Access .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Miscellaneous Non-Capital Articles .................................................................................................... 11
Process to Update Forecast ........................................................................................................................ 13
Description of Worksheets ................................................................................................................. 13
Steps to Update Current and Future Forecasts .................................................................................. 14
Appendix: FY2019-FY2023 Forecast Spreadsheets ..................................................................................... 17
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INTRODUCTION The object of the Town of Newbury’s financial forecast is to conservatively project revenues and expenditures five years into the future (FY2019-FY2023). The forecast is intended to provide policymakers with the information they need to make informed decisions around the Town’s financial strategies and policies, long-term financial planning, capital planning, and long-term contracts or obligations. This Financial Forecast Model, used in conjunction with the town’s Financial Management Policies and Five Year Capital Improvement Program, create a strong foundation upon which decisions can be made regarding how to best use local resources. Revenue and expenditure forecasting is a powerful financial planning tool that can be used to isolate the impact of particular future events and determine their effects on the Town’s financial picture. The forecasting model is designed using reasonable assumptions about a wide variety of future events. By using these assumptions along with known facts, a comprehensive view of the Town’s fiscal outlook emerges. Though potential exists for any one item in the forecast to be less than accurate, when taken as a whole, a well-built model presents a fair representation of the Town’s future finances. The approach used in the forecast model for the Town of Newbury assumes that current staffing service levels will be maintained in the future years of the forecast. The model also assumes that existing Massachusetts General Laws and regulations will remain unchanged over the forecast period. However, as new information becomes available here forward, the assumptions and estimates used in the current projections will need to be regularly reevaluated by Town officials to determine if they are still appropriate and reasonable. The forecast is structured as a series of Excel worksheets. Revenues are projected in detail in the “Revenue Projections” worksheet and expenditures are projected in detail in an “Expenditure Projections” worksheet. The totals from the detailed revenue and expenditure projections flow into a “Summary” worksheet which reveals projected future operating surpluses or deficits. More detailed sheets are available for more in-depth analysis of issues like new growth (Growth), debt excluded from Proposition 2 ½ limits and all other non-excluded town debt (Existing Debt Schedule) and local receipts (Local Receipts History). An additional worksheet estimates the impact of estimated wage and cost-of-living increases (“COLA”) based upon collective bargaining agreements.
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REVENUE PROJECTIONS
PROPERTY TAX LEVY Annual tax levy growth is constrained by Proposition 2 1/2, the Massachusetts General Law that limits the annual growth in a municipality’s total tax levy to 2.5 percent, plus an allowance for certain new construction and other additions to the tax rolls. The law also allows a city or town to increase taxes beyond this levy limit with voter approval. An Override of this limit by voters becomes a permanent part of the tax levy calculation in future years and is best used for recurring expenses in the regular operating budget. A Debt Exclusion may also be approved by voters to increase the levy limit temporarily to fund capital projects. These projects are financed by borrowing, and the annual debt service is added to the levy limit each year until the project is paid off. The FY2019-FY2023 forecast for Newbury projects new growth to remain stable. “New growth” is “additional tax revenue generated by new construction, renovations and other increases in the property tax base during a calendar year”.1 Over the last 5 years, the Town has averaged approximately $150,000 in new growth tax revenues and this projection assumes the same rate of growth. Certified new growth for FY2018 is $201,542. New growth is reported to the State each year on Form LA-13 which is typically submitted in early fall prior to setting a tax rate. Newbury has approved a number of debt exclusions in the past. As debt is issued, the Town Accountant completes the State DE-1 schedule to calculate the annual debt service that can be raised outside the Proposition 2 /12 limits. Recently, the Town approved a debt exclusion for the new Police Station and Town Hall renovation at a total appropriation of $6.5 million. Debt costs for these projects will be funded by property tax dollars outside the limits of Proposition 2 ½ and are therefore reflected in both the revenue projections and the expenditure projections. The forecast anticipates that the Town will maintain its practice of preparing a balanced budget by utilizing its allowable tax levy limit. Levy limit information is published each year by the Division of Local Services (https://dlsgateway.dor.state.ma.us/gateway/Login) and should be reviewed by Town officials periodically in late summer and early fall as growth is certified.
1 Massachusetts Department of Revenue, Division of Local Services, Municipal Finance Glossary. (May 2008;
Appendix 6)
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STATE AID CHERRY SHEET Chapter 70 – Chapter 70 education aid is determined each year by the State Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) using a complex formula. The formula entails calculating a foundation budget for each municipality or school district based on the number and characteristics of the pupils (e.g., low income, bilingual or vocational) in the district. The foundation budget represents the minimum level of spending necessary to provide an adequate education in each district. Generally, in communities with sufficient resources, required school spending (aka, “net school spending”) is well above the calculated foundation budget, reflective of historically high education spending. In communities with fewer resources and lower historical spending on education, the formula seeks to maintain required net school spending at a level at least as high as the foundation budget. To determine the relative contributions from municipal revenues versus state Chapter 70 aid necessary to meet required education spending levels, DESE calculates target levels of local (municipal) contribution and target levels of (state) Chapter 70 aid. These calculations are based on the total income of a municipality’s residents and the total property wealth of the municipality. For example, if a community has sufficient income and property wealth to cover 60 percent of the foundation budget, then the State aid target is 40 percent of foundation. Income is measured using State Department of Revenue total income by community from state tax returns and property wealth is measured using equalized property values for each community. Equalized property values are determined by the state every two years and control for differences in local assessing practices. In cases where a municipality has a low ability to pay, less is required from the municipality and state Chapter 70 aid fills the gap between the foundation budget and the required local contribution. Newbury is a member of the Triton Regional School District, which also includes Rowley and Salisbury. Newbury students attend Newbury Elementary School, Triton Regional Middle School and Triton Regional High School. Some students also attend Whittier Regional School and Essex Technical High School. The majority of Chapter 70 aid on behalf of Newbury is sent directly to the regional school districts. As such, this revenue has little impact upon the Town budget and no growth is projected in Chapter 70 funding during the forecast period. Unrestricted General Government Aid (UGGA) –Newbury received $517,371 in this category for FY2018 compared to $497,951 in FY2017 for an increase of $19,420. UGGA is projected to grow at a moderate rate of 3% for this projection. To keep UGGA and the other cherry sheet accounts up to date, Town officials will need to monitor the local aid estimates published by the Division of Local Services at each juncture of the state budget process: http://www.mass.gov/dor/local-officials/municipal-databank-and-local-aid-unit/cherry-sheets/. The first of these estimates will come after the release of the Governor’s FY2019 budget in late January of 2018 followed by the House Ways and Means Committee budget in mid-April, the final House budget in late April, the Senate Ways and Means budget in mid-May, and final Senate budget in late May. The Conference Committee’s budget, which resolves differences in the two legislative versions of the budget, is typically issued in late June. Final cherry sheets reflect any vetoes by the Governor and/or any legislative overrides of these vetoes.
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Veterans Benefits and Exemptions for Veterans and Elderly – These accounts consist of reimbursements for veterans’ benefits and certain local property exemptions for qualified individuals. In FY2018, the Town will receive $70,955 in reimbursements compared to $62,837 in FY2017. This forecast assumes a moderate 5% increase in benefits disbursements and therefore a matching increase in reimbursements. State Owned Land – This item is for a State contribution for land owned by the Commonwealth within the town. In FY2018, the Town will receive $268,077 compared to $268,332 in FY2017. The forecast assumes level funding. Aid to Public Libraries -- This item is a cherry sheet offset and may be spent without an appropriation by the Town’s library. This account has no impact on the forecast since it is also raised on the expenditure side, essentially pulling these revenues out of the general revenue mix for direct use by the library.
LOCAL ESTIMATED RECEIPTS Local estimated receipts are locally generated revenues, other than real and personal property taxes. Examples include motor vehicle excise, investment income, payments in lieu of taxes, penalties and interest on taxes, departmental revenue, fines, and permit fees. Newbury reports on 11 categories of local receipts. The history of budgeted local receipts versus actual receipts is shown on the local receipts worksheet in the Local Receipts History tab. The Town has a practice of conservatively budgeting these items and routinely collects $200,000-$400,000 more than was budgeted. In FY2017, the Town collected $2,060,088 in local receipts versus a FY2017 budget of $1,858,000. Motor vehicle excise revenue ($1,224,921 in FY2017) is the Town’s largest local receipt constituting about 59 percent of the total estimated receipts. Other significant local receipts include license and permits, fees, and fines. The Town has not adopted the State authorized room excise or meals tax, and is among a declining number of communities that have not done so. For forecast purposes, motor vehicle excise is projected to increase 3% per year, fees at 5%, licenses/permits and investment income at 2% and other items to remain stable. This results in a net projection increase of 2.6% per year. Going forward, Town officials should review charges for fees and permits and the pros and cons of adopting the local option taxes.
ENTERPRISE FUNDS Ambulance - The Town utilizes an enterprise fund for its ambulance services. Revenues generated are used to cover direct and indirect costs. As part of the tax rate setting process, the Town Accountant completes a form submitted to the State that details all ambulance revenues and expenditures.
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AVAILABLE FUNDS Available Funds for Town Meeting Articles - This line item represents funds that are dedicated for specific purposes. For FY2018, the $700,106 amount includes $607,106 in special assessment revenues for the Plum Island sewer debt service costs and $93,000 for annual cable operations collected from the PEG cable access fee.
FREE CASH Free Cash for Reserves, Capital and Other Purposes - The Town utilizes free cash to fund a number of town meeting articles. See the description in the Expenditure section and Expenditure Projection worksheet.
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EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS
MUNICIPAL DEPARTMENTS In the forecast, Town departments have been grouped by major categories consistent with Town budget and state expenditure reporting. The department budgets are reported as follows: General Government, Natural Resources, Planning and Zoning, Facilities, Public Safety, Public Works, Community Services, and Schools. Salaries and Wages are impacted by wage settlements for all union and non-union. For projection purposes, the impacts of wage settlements beyond FY2018 have been projected using the COLA worksheet. The forecast utilizes a 3% COLA but this is intended as an example of cost impact moving forward and not a recommendation for any wage settlements. Cost impacts have been included in the Expenditure Projection worksheet within each Salary and Wages line item. The COLA worksheet can be used to quantify the impacts of other wage agreements and step amounts, if desired. Projections for non-labor expenses are generated in the Operating Expense Budget Detail worksheet. This offers a high level of detail so that individual operating expenses can be projected independently from others. Overall, increases range from 0% to 5% depending upon department. However, these can be adjusted as needed.
EDUCATION Triton Regional School District – Newbury is a member of the Triton Regional School District, which also includes Rowley and Salisbury. Newbury students attend Newbury Elementary School, Triton Regional Middle School, and Triton Regional High School. Budget costs are assessed to each member community based upon the number of students. In FY2018, Newbury’s operating budget assessment was $8,616,585 compared to $8,675,353 in FY2017. The forecast projects a 4% increase per year. In addition, the District previously approved a project excluded from the limits of Proposition 2 ½ and Newbury is assessed its share of the debt. In FY2018, Newbury’s share of this debt is $173,083 compared to $117,400 in FY2017. The last year for this debt assessment will be FY2021. Whittier Regional Vocational Technical High School- Some students also attend Whittier Regional. Budget costs are assessed to each community based upon the number of students. In FY2018, Newbury’s operating budget assessment was $434,750 compared to $434,916 in FY2017. The forecast projects a 4% increase per year. In addition, communities are assessed a proportionate share of net debt service for a non-excluded proposition 2 ½ capital project. In FY2018, Newbury’s share of debt is 18,434 compared to $15,092 in FY2017. Essex Technical – Newbury sends some students to the Essex Technical Vocational School. This item reflects its share of the annual budget. In FY2018, Newbury’s operating budget assessment was $131,740 compared to $98,980 in FY2017. The forecast projects a 4% increase per year
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DEBT SERVICE Debt Service Non-Exempt - Debt Service costs in this category are funded within the limits of Proposition 2 ½. The Town currently does not have any debt service costs that are non-exempt. Any future approved non-exempt debt service costs would be projected in this row based upon timing, amount, interest rate, and debt structure as determined by the Town Treasurer with the assistance of the Town’s financial advisor. . Debt Service Exempt - Debt Service costs in this category are funded outside the limits of Proposition 2 ½. FY2022 is the last year for debt payments for existing bonded projects. The forecast includes the projected debt service for the Police Station/Town Hall project that was recently approved at Town Meeting and a general election. This is an estimate that could vary based upon timing, amount borrowed, interest rate, and debt structure as determined by the Town Treasurer with the assistance of the Town’s financial advisor. .
EMPLOYEE BENEFITS Retirement - Town pension costs are projected based on the estimated appropriations issued by the Public Employee Retirement Administration Commission (PERAC) for the Essex County Retirement System. The appropriation letter from PERAC breaks down the assessments to the member towns, school districts, and housing authorities and shows the percentage of the total borne by each entity. The allocation for Newbury is detailed in the Retirement worksheet. The current share of retirement costs for Newbury is 3.54%. The forecast applies this percentage to the future appropriation amounts identified by PERAC as necessary to maintain the pension funding schedule going forward. Though this is the best information available at this time, Town officials should be aware that the Essex County appropriation needs are due to be updated in FY2018 This will likely result in changes to these projected pension costs for Newbury and should be monitored in future years to reflect any revisions in the necessary funding. Unemployment – Unemployment is level funded at $60,000 each year of the forecast, reflecting the fact that the Town has not incurred significant unemployment costs as a result of layoffs in recent years. Health Insurance – The Town receives its health insurance through the Massachusetts Interlocal Insurance Association (MIIA) a health insurance program representing many Massachusetts communities. The forecast is utilizing current estimates from MIIA of an annual 10% increase in rates. This early estimate will be updated over the next few months as MIIA reviews costs and the Town reviews its health insurance program. Dental and Life Insurance – The Town offers a dental program and a small cost shared life insurance plan for employees. A 3% cost increase is projected for dental, and life insurance cost has been level funded. Medicare – The Town must contribute 1.45% of wages to Medicare for employees hired after 1986. In
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the forecast, Medicare has been projected at $175,266 with an increase of 3% per year thereafter. This reflects the impact of negotiated salary and step increases for employees.
PROPERTY/LIABILITY INSURANCES Workers Compensation/Property/Liability- Newbury participates in the MIIA program. Early cost estimates are projected at 3% per year. These projections will be refined as the budget process progresses and the forecast can be updated based upon new information, particularly the completion of new construction projects
ENTERPRISE FUNDS Ambulance services are a self-sufficient operation. All of the direct costs for salaries, wages, and expenses are listed in this category. The share for the indirect costs are budgeted within the various operating budgets and are allocated in the enterprise report submitted to the State on Schedule A-2 Enterprise Funds when the tax rate is set. These costs are offset by ambulance revenues as indirect costs in the revenue detail worksheet.
OTHER AMOUNTS TO BE RAISED The Cherry Sheet Offset in Newbury is for Public Library aid. Library aid is forecast to remain stable. As an offset, however, any change has no impact on the budget as these receipts are earmarked for library spending without appropriation. As such, any growth in this revenue is offset on the expenditure side of the forecast to essentially remove this aid from the city’s general revenues. The annual allowance for abatements and exemptions (Overlay) has been projected to increase by 2.5% per year. In a revaluation year, a community typically has more abatement requests, so a good practice is to increase the overlay to reflect the risk of additional abatements. This model should be updated to reflect the update year.
STATE AND COUNTY ASSESSMENTS All State assessments included in the forecast are based on the Cherry Sheet estimates published by the Division of Local Services for the FY2018 budget. The most significant of the State assessments in Newbury are the mosquito control assessment and the Massachusetts Bay Transit Authority (MBTA). The mosquito control assessment has been projected to increase by 2.5% per year and the MBTA assessment is also forecast to grow 2.5% per year, consistent with the limitations on the overall annual growth of these assessments. All other assessments are projected to remain constant.
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Similar to the cherry sheet state aid accounts on the revenue side, Town officials should continue to monitor the state budget process for FY2019 and follow the release of local aid estimates until the State budget process concludes with the issuance of final FY2019 Cherry Sheets.
RESERVES ARTICLES General Stabilization Fund- Newbury has established a General Stabilization Fund and annually appropriates funds to it from the tax levy. The Town’s financial management policy is to maintain a balance of 3%-5% of its annual budget for the purpose of extraordinary or unforeseen expenditures. This 5 year forecast maintain the same $250,000 funding level as FY2018. OPEB Fund- Other Post-Employment Benefits (mainly retiree health insurance) is a significant future cost for municipalities in Massachusetts and across the U.S. Unlike Massachusetts retirement law, there is no requirement to put money aside for these future costs that are being incurred as employee work. State law does provide a mechanism for municipalities to set aside funds voluntarily in a special fund to accumulate money to pay for these future costs. Newbury has established such a fund and in FY2018, appropriated $50,000 from the tax levy. This forecast projects an increase in that funding level to $100,000 per year, which is consistent with its recent financial management policy.
FREE CASH ARTICLES Town Hall Lease – This line is for the temporary lease of town hall space. The projected amount will be adjusted once a new lease is entered into. Storm Water Management - This line is for costs associated with implementing the town’s expanding program for storm water management. Other Town Meeting Articles – Typically, town meeting will appropriate funds to cover items such as unpaid bills, over-expenditures, etc. from free cash. The town’s policy is to not use free cash to fund the current operating budget. Free Cash – Capital Outlay- This item represents the amount of money appropriated from free cash to fund capital outlay. The town’s financial management policy establishes a base of $300,000, increasing by the rate of budget growth. The forecast assumes a projected 5% increase per year.
ARTICLES FROM OTHER AVAILABLE FUNDS Plum Island Debt Service -- Newbury has a special fund to collect betterment assessments from certain taxpayers for the debt service for the sanitary sewer project.
PEG Access – Newbury’s public access television services are funded by fees collected from cable subscribers by cable companies.
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Miscellaneous Non-Capital Articles - Periodically, there are other Town Meeting articles that are funded from funds that may be available for appropriation or transfer. .
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PROCESS TO UPDATE FORECAST Description of Worksheets The Newbury Revenue/Expenditure Forecast file has a number of worksheets. The following describes the worksheets.
o Summary o Revenue Projections o Growth o Local Receipts History o Cherry Sheet History o Expenditure Projections o Operating Expense Budget Detail o COLA o Capital Investment o Existing Debt Schedule o Retirement
Summary – This worksheet links to the Revenue Projections and Expenditure Projections worksheets to provide a quick overview of the five year plan. Revenue Projections – This worksheet is used to list the details of the various revenue categories and the assumptions that are used in the projections. The Final Recap column will require manual data entry each year to input the final Tax Recap data. Future year projections are calculated utilizing the straight-line percentage change column on the far right. If a revenue is not projected to grow linearly, the revenue expectations should be input manually into the forecast. Growth – This worksheet is a summary of the new growth taxes that the Town can raise within the limits of Proposition 2 ½ for the fiscal year. Once the final growth amount is calculated by the Assessors, the Selectmen set the tax rate, and the tax recap is approved by the State, the final amounts will need to be added to the worksheet. When updating the forecast each year, the Finance Team should discuss any changes in the growth projections. Local Receipts History –This worksheet is used to detail the history of the Town’s local receipts budget to actual comparison. It is useful in budget planning purposes to analyze and maintain the policy of conservation revenue forecasting in order to close the fiscal year with stable or increasing fund balance. This tab should be kept updated when each fiscal year’s actual revenues are finalized. Cherry Sheet History –This worksheet is used to detail the history of State Aid and Assessments to the Town. It is useful in budget planning purposes to monitor trends in these revenue and expense categories. Expenditure Projections – This worksheet lists the details of the various departments and other expenses categories that are in the Town budget warrant article. It also lists all the financial
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appropriation warrant articles for Town Meeting. Finally, it lists other expenditure categories that do not require Town Meeting approval but must be included in the tax rate setting process. The Salaries and Wages line for each function is automatically updated when the user enters information into the COLA worksheet. The Other Expenses line for each function is automatically updated when the user enters information into the Operating Expense Budget detail worksheet. Operating Expense Budget Detail – This worksheet lists the budget expense line items that are utilized in the preparation of the town’s Annual Budget Appropriations for Town Meeting. It links to the Expenditure Projections worksheet by function summary. The user can also enter manually or use the cost increase straight-line factor for the other cost items listed. COLA and Wages – This worksheet provides the user with multiple “what if” scenarios on COLA and step increases. Factors entered into the COLA and/or step cells automatically update the function/department Salaries and Wages line in the Expenditure Projections detail. Capital Investment– The capital worksheet brings together the revenues and expenditures included in the Town’s 5 year financial forecast and recommended CIP. The worksheet details the current debt service, a projection of debt service for projects that town meeting has authorized, a column for any projected debt service as proposed in the 5 year CIP, capital outlay that is included in departmental budgets and capital outlay that is voted from free cash as individual warrant articles. The worksheet compares the projected revenue budget for the 5 year forecast to the projected capital investment and calculates the Town’s annual capital investment as a percent of net revenues. The Town’s FY2018 capital investment as a percent of net revenue is 4%. With the projected debt for the police station/town hall project beginning in FY2019, the investment increases to 5.7%. This projection is subject to change based upon the final debt issue timing and structure. Going forward, the Town’s non-debt capital investment is based upon the Town’s financial management policy of increasing pay as you go capital outlay at the same rate as growth in the operating budget. Larger projects are typically funded by debt exclusion votes. This tab can be used on an iterative basis to identify the amount of capital investment needed to reach the Town’s target for capital as a percent of prior year revenues. Debt Schedule – This worksheet details the Town’s existing and anticipated future debt service by fiscal year. This worksheet must be updated whenever the Town issues permanent debt. The Town Treasurer and the Financial Advisor play an invaluable tool in maintaining this data. The data in this spreadsheet is used to enter for the excluded debt service in the Revenue Projections tab as each year exempt debt is funded by an increase to the tax levy. It is also used in the Expenditure Projections to report existing debt service by exempt and non-exempt. Retirement – This worksheet lists the current PERAC retirement appropriation for Essex County and Newbury’s share. The funding schedule is updated by an actuary hired by the County every 3 years and approved by PERAC which will allow Newbury to update the forecast. Steps to Update Current and Future Forecasts The process for updating the forecasting spreadsheet to reflect the current year and the 5 projection years must be done systematically and with care. Generally, the updating of the Revenue and Expenditure spreadsheets should occur 1) after the end of the current fiscal year after the Town’s budget for next year has been adopted by Town Meeting and final cherry sheets are issued, 2) during
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budget preparation for the upcoming fiscal year and 3) just prior to town meeting. When the user is ready to prepare the next 5 Year Forecast, The current forecast file should be saved with a new name reflecting the forecast period. For example, the new file could be named Newbury Draft FY2020 to FY2024 Forecast. A blank template file is provided to the town for this next cycle, the FY2020 to FY2024. This blank template file should be saved for future use also. After the base year and column headings have been updated, the user is now ready to prepare the next five year forecasts working with the appropriate individual worksheets. COLA worksheet- Enter the detail current year wage budget in current year detail column. In the yellow cells, enter the percent increase for COLA and step if applicable. Operating Expense worksheet – Enter the non-salaries and wages line items from the town meeting Article 4 approved budget. In the yellow cells, enter the percent change or, if necessary, refer to supplemental worksheets for debt, and retirement. Expenditure Projection worksheet – Many of the rows and cells in this worksheet will be populated from the previous 2 worksheets. In some instances, the user will enter values for certain items. Those yellow cells in this worksheet allow the user to enter percent increases for these line items, or if preferred, over-write formula and enter value manually. This is fine as long as the user remembers to replace the formulas later if they want to determine the projections based on percent change in other years. Revenue Projection worksheet – The first step to update the revenue projection is to establish the property tax levy and tax levy limit data from information for the current final fiscal year tax recap. The user should refer carefully to the levy limit form prepared by the Division of Local Services. For the projections years, debt exclusions amounts should be reconciled with its reciprocal amount in the expenditure detail and debt service schedules. New growth projections can be entered manually for each year of the forecast. State Aid and Estimated Local Receipts should be updated to reflect the final tax recap amounts for the current year. The yellow cells can be used to project percent increase for all of these rows. Finally, the last 3 categories of Enterprise Funds, Available Funds and Free Cash are populated from data in the expenditure detail worksheet. Summary worksheet – This worksheet summarizes the data from the expenditure and revenue worksheets. The rows will be automatically populated and, as a proof, the user should compare the totals. Finally, there are a number of worksheets in the projection model file that must be updated each year. Data in these worksheets is used for both source and planning purposes.
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APPENDIX: FY2019-FY2023 FORECAST SPREADSHEETS
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TOW
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16,0
36,1
06
17,0
34,3
17
17,5
68,1
91
17,7
45,5
56
18,1
46,3
04
18,6
59,3
40
Sta
te A
id881,4
32
898,8
21
916,7
70
935,2
96
954,4
19
974,1
59
Local R
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ts1,8
50,0
00
1,8
98,4
60
1,9
48,4
44
2,0
00,0
04
2,0
53,1
94
2,1
08,0
68
Am
bula
nce E
nte
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240,0
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247,9
11
256,0
96
264,5
63
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R C
ENT
INC
/DEC
FR
OM
PR
IOR
YEA
R-1
4.0%
0.0%
-3.0
%-1
1.0%
9.0%
TOW
N O
F N
EWB
UR
YST
ATE
CH
ERR
Y SH
EET
HIS
TOR
Y
Ne
wb
ury
FY
20
19
-23
Fin
an
cia
l F
ore
ca
st
(Dra
ft f
or
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2-1
-18
TOW
N O
F N
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VE Y
EAR
EXP
END
ITU
RE
PRO
JEC
TIO
NEx
pend
iture
Pro
ject
ions
F
Y2
01
8F
Y2
01
9F
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02
0F
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02
1F
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02
2F
Y2
02
3P
roje
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nF
ina
l R
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dP
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dP
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dP
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en
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otes
GEN
ERA
L G
OVE
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TS
ala
rie
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ge
s6
71
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56
91
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77
11
,92
27
33
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07
55
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7see c
ola
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Oth
er
Exp
en
se
s5
84
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05
95
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36
06
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06
18
,76
16
30
,92
66
43
,45
72
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
TOTA
L 1,
255,
405
1,28
6,67
01,
318,
872
1,35
2,04
11,
386,
205
1,42
1,39
3N
ATU
RA
L R
ESO
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Sa
larie
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ge
s5
6,5
28
58
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45
9,9
71
61
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06
3,6
23
65
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ola
tab
Oth
er
Exp
en
se
s6
7,5
00
69
,00
07
0,5
45
72
,13
67
3,7
75
75
,46
42
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
TOTA
L 12
4,02
812
7,22
413
0,51
613
3,90
613
7,39
814
0,99
5PL
AN
NIN
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nd Z
ON
ING
Sa
larie
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Wa
ge
s8
1,8
21
84
,27
68
6,8
04
89
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89
2,0
90
94
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3see c
ola
tab
Oth
er
Exp
en
se
s1
8,9
44
19
,51
22
0,0
98
20
,70
12
1,3
22
21
,96
13
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
TOTA
L 10
0,76
510
3,78
810
6,90
211
0,10
911
3,41
211
6,81
4FA
CIL
ITIE
SS
ala
rie
s &
Wa
ge
s0
00
00
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ola
tab
Oth
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Exp
en
se
s2
24
,25
02
35
,45
02
47
,21
02
59
,55
82
72
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32
86
,13
75
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
TOTA
L 22
4,25
023
5,45
024
7,21
025
9,55
827
2,52
328
6,13
7PU
BLI
C S
AFE
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ala
rie
s &
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ge
s2
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7,8
57
2,2
53
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32
,32
1,0
97
2,3
90
,73
02
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2,4
52
2,5
36
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6see c
ola
tab
Oth
er
Exp
en
se
s5
16
,67
75
28
,53
45
40
,74
85
53
,32
75
66
,28
45
79
,63
02
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
Fire
Ca
pita
l O
utla
y2
28
,00
02
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,84
02
41
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52
49
,14
22
56
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62
64
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43
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see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
Po
lice
Ca
pita
l O
utla
y3
9,0
00
40
,17
04
1,3
75
42
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64
3,8
95
45
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23
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see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
TOTA
L 2,
971,
534
3,05
7,03
73,
145,
105
3,23
5,81
63,
329,
247
3,42
5,48
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BLI
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Sa
larie
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s5
12
,37
75
27
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85
43
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15
59
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85
76
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55
93
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Oth
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Exp
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se
s7
00
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07
15
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07
30
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07
46
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47
62
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47
79
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72
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see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
Pu
blic
Wo
rks C
ap
ita
l O
utla
y4
4,7
51
46
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44
7,4
76
48
,90
15
0,3
68
51
,87
93
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
TOTA
L 1,
257,
128
1,28
8,84
21,
321,
507
1,35
5,15
21,
389,
807
1,42
5,50
1C
OM
MU
NIT
Y SE
RVI
CES
Sa
larie
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Wa
ge
s3
42
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43
52
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53
62
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33
73
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93
84
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13
96
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Oth
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Exp
en
se
s2
21
,43
72
25
,75
52
30
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32
34
,78
42
39
,50
22
44
,36
22
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
TOTA
L 56
3,46
157
8,04
059
3,05
660
8,52
362
4,45
364
0,86
2SC
HO
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Trito
n R
eg
ion
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pe
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8,9
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9,6
98
9,6
92
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61
0,0
80
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61
0,4
83
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34
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
Trito
n R
eg
ion
al D
eb
t S
erv
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Assm
t/E
xe
m1
73
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73
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31
73
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73
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Wh
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pe
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Wh
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18
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8,4
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8,4
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8,4
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0.0
%
Esse
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ech
Op
era
tin
g A
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t1
31
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01
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01
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01
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01
54
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71
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L 9,
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1,91
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Tab
Bo
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30
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03
0,0
00
30
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03
0,0
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30
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03
0,0
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see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
BA
N
40
,00
04
0,0
00
40
,00
04
0,0
00
40
,00
04
0,0
00
see o
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ting e
xpense d
eta
il
Est
Po
lice
Sta
tio
n/T
ow
n H
all
03
97
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03
97
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53
97
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53
97
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04
02
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0see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
TOTA
L 58
4,10
595
5,50
793
9,98
855
4,22
555
0,85
047
2,25
0
New
bury
FY
2019-2
3 F
inancia
l F
ore
cast (D
raft for
revie
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2-1
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TOW
N O
F N
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EXP
END
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PRO
JEC
TIO
NEx
pend
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ions
F
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01
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01
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02
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02
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02
3P
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EMPL
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Esse
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t6
01
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06
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46
93
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07
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28
00
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58
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Essex C
ounty
syste
m s
chedule
Un
em
plo
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en
t 1
0,0
00
10
,00
01
0,0
00
10
,00
01
0,0
00
10
,00
00
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
He
alth
In
su
ran
ce
85
6,3
40
94
1,9
74
1,0
36
,17
11
,13
9,7
89
1,2
53
,76
71
,37
9,1
44
10
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
De
nta
l3
7,9
83
39
,12
24
0,2
96
41
,50
54
2,7
50
44
,03
33
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
Life
1,5
00
1,5
00
1,5
00
1,5
00
1,5
00
1,5
00
0.0
%see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
Me
dic
are
50
,00
05
1,5
00
53
,04
55
4,6
36
56
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55
7,9
64
3.0
%see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
TOTA
L 1,
557,
263
1,69
0,06
01,
834,
842
1,99
2,67
22,
164,
758
2,34
4,01
5PR
OPE
RTY
/LIA
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ITY
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RA
NC
ESP
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50
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01
54
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51
59
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51
64
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51
69
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81
74
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83
.0%
see o
pera
ting e
xpense d
eta
il
TOTA
L 15
0,17
015
4,67
515
9,31
516
4,09
516
9,01
817
4,08
8EN
TER
PRIS
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ND
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mb
ula
nce
Sa
lary
an
d W
ag
es
15
1,0
00
15
5,5
30
16
0,1
96
16
5,0
02
16
9,9
52
17
5,0
50
3.0
%
Am
bu
lan
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Oth
er
Exp
en
se
s5
3,4
32
55
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55
6,6
86
58
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76
0,1
38
61
,94
23
.0%
TOTA
L20
4,43
221
0,56
521
6,88
222
3,38
823
0,09
023
6,99
3O
THER
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NTS
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ISED
Ch
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8,1
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%
Ta
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itle
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ve
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05
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15
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92
21
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82
26
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22
32
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42
.5%
TOTA
L21
3,71
821
8,85
722
4,12
422
9,52
323
5,05
724
0,72
9ST
ATE
and
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TY A
SSES
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ea
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He
alth
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91
41
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74
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5,8
79
77
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9,7
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Air P
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42
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42
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3,6
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TA
36
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7,6
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Re
gio
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l T
ran
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8,8
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9,0
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9,3
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9,5
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9,7
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10
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TOTA
L12
6,68
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9,76
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2,93
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6,18
613
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3R
ESER
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Sta
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n F
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50
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02
50
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02
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02
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02
50
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OP
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Fu
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50
,00
01
00
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01
00
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01
00
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01
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OP
EB
min
imum
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g p
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y
TOTA
L30
0,00
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0,00
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ll L
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Actu
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77
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CIP
Pay A
s Y
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TOTA
L91
1,49
550
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9,25
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RTI
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OM
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07
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97
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74
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Tab
Fro
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tab
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tio
n F
un
d f
or
Ca
pita
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isc A
rtic
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PE
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93
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3,0
00
93
,00
09
3,0
00
93
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3,0
00
offset by C
able
fees
TOTA
L70
0,10
669
3,17
669
0,62
766
7,46
666
4,16
853
5,70
4TO
TAL
EXPE
ND
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RES
20
,619
,139
21,3
23,5
7422
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22,4
63,1
3823
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,135
23,7
71,6
27
New
bury
FY
2019-2
3 F
inancia
l F
ore
cast (D
raft for
revie
w)
2-1
-18
TOW
N O
F N
EWB
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Y A
RTI
CLE
4 O
PER
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BU
DG
ET D
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RO
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NF
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01
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GEN
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L G
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RN
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T58
4,35
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5,48
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od
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3,2
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3,2
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3,2
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Pro
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s1
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01
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01
06
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ax t
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Ad
min
& F
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nce
47
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5,4
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Fin
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m
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00
5,0
00
5,0
00
5,0
00
5,0
00
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00
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Re
se
rve
Fu
nd
15
0,0
00
15
0,0
00
15
0,0
00
15
0,0
00
15
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00
15
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00
0%
Asse
sso
rs
41
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2,5
39
43
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5,1
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46
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44
7,8
78
3%
Au
di t
30
,00
03
0,9
00
31
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73
2,7
82
33
,76
53
4,7
78
3%
Le
ga
l8
0,0
00
82
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08
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72
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,41
89
0,0
41
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23
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ers
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ne
l B
oa
rd5
00
50
05
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00
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46
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51
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58
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Po
sta
ge
19
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01
9,5
70
20
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72
0,7
62
21
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52
2,0
26
3%
Ge
ne
ral C
od
e6
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06
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06
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06
,00
06
,00
00
%T
ow
n C
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6
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07
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47
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47
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17
,65
37
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33
%T
ow
n R
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rds
10
,00
01
0,0
00
10
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01
0,0
00
10
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01
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00
0%
To
wn
Ele
ctio
ns
13
,50
01
3,5
00
13
,50
01
3,5
00
13
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01
3,5
00
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NA
TUR
AL
RES
OU
RC
E S67
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72,1
3673
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64%
cha
nge
from
prio
r yea
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0%2.
0%2.
0%2.
0%S
torm
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ter
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na
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me
nt
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00
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00
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Be
ave
r m
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t5
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ach
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na
ge
me
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Tre
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5
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00
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PLA
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and
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61%
cha
nge
from
prio
r yea
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0%3.
0%3.
0%3.
0%P
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try
9,7
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1,1
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3%
FAC
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IES
224,
250
235,
450
247,
210
259,
558
272,
523
286,
137
% c
hang
e fr
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rior y
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5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Utilit
ies
10
5,0
00
11
0,2
50
11
5,7
63
12
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51
12
7,6
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13
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5%
Re
pa
irs,M
ain
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mp
rove
me
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90
,00
09
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00
99
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51
04
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09
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61
14
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55
%P
rop
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y r
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ted
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rvic
es
29
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50
31
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35
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03
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To
wn
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po
rts
25
02
50
25
02
50
25
02
50
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PRO
PER
TY/L
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KER
S C
OM
P 15
0,17
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4,67
515
9,31
516
4,09
516
9,01
817
4,08
8%
cha
nge
from
prio
r yea
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0%3.
0%3.
0%3.
0%3.
0%P
rop
ert
y1
50
,17
01
54
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51
59
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51
64
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51
69
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81
74
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83
%L
iab
ilit y
00
00
00
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Wo
rke
rs C
om
p0
00
00
03
%
Ne
wb
ury
FY
20
19
-23
Fin
an
cia
l F
ore
ca
st
(Dra
ft f
or
revie
w)
2-1
-18
8
TOW
N O
F N
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Y A
RTI
CLE
4 O
PER
ATI
NG
BU
DG
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RO
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01
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01
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02
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02
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02
2F
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02
3Pr
oj P
erce
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CLE
4 N
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otes
PUB
LIC
SA
FETY
516,
677
528,
534
540,
748
553,
327
566,
284
579,
630
% c
hang
e fr
om p
rior y
ear
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Po
lice
1
74
,90
01
80
,14
71
85
,55
11
91
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81
96
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12
02
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73
%E
me
rge
ncy M
an
ag
em
en
t1
0,0
00
10
,30
01
0,6
09
10
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71
1,2
55
11
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33
%F
ire
le
ase
pa
ym
en
ts8
0,0
00
80
,00
08
0,0
00
80
,00
08
0,0
00
80
,00
00
%F
ire
1
64
,84
71
69
,79
21
74
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61
80
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31
85
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71
91
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33
%F
ire
in
su
ran
ce
pre
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m2
5,0
00
25
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02
6,5
23
27
,31
82
8,1
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23
%In
sp
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hic
le a
llow
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ce
8,4
00
8,4
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8,4
00
8,4
00
8,4
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00
0%
Insp
ecto
r e
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se
20
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02
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21
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82
2,4
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23
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32
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Se
ale
r o
f W
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hts
2,5
00
2,5
00
2,5
00
2,5
00
2,5
00
2,5
00
0%
An
ima
l C
on
tro
l3
,50
03
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03
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03
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03
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03
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00
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ree
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sse
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en
t7
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07
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yd
ran
t se
rvic
e2
0,0
00
20
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02
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00
20
,00
02
0,0
00
20
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00
%
CA
PITA
L O
UTL
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311,
751
321,
104
330,
737
340,
659
350,
878
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405
% c
hang
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rior y
ear
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
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Po
lice
Ca
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l O
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9,0
00
40
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04
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ire
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28
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PW
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15
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93
%
PUB
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WO
RK
S70
0,00
071
5,00
073
0,45
074
6,36
476
2,75
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9,63
7%
cha
nge
from
prio
r yea
r2.
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0%2.
0%2.
0%2.
0%D
PW
19
0,0
00
19
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20
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20
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22
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3%
Ro
ad
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pro
ve
me
nt
25
0,0
00
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00
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27
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28
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28
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19
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Sn
ow
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ce
20
0,0
00
20
0,0
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20
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00
20
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20
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0%
Str
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0,0
00
61
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%
CO
MM
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ITY
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1,43
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5,75
523
0,20
323
4,78
423
9,50
224
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cha
nge
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prio
r yea
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0%H
ea
lth
66
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cil
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4
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25
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s B
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45
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Lib
rary
7
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ay C
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%
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374,
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rito
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pe
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31
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%
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wb
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20
19
-23
Fin
an
cia
l F
ore
ca
st
(Dra
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2-1
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9
TOW
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EXIS
TIN
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Bo
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co
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30
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De
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De
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fin
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EMPL
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E B
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ITS
1,55
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Esse
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nt
Assm
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01
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ea
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85
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tal
37
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Life
1,5
00
1,5
00
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00
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00
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00
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00
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Me
dic
are
50
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TOTA
L N
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ages
from
Abo
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TAL
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heet
3,85
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TOTA
L A
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CLE
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18,7
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% c
hang
e fr
om p
rior y
ear
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
Ne
wb
ury
FY
20
19
-23
Fin
an
cia
l F
ore
ca
st
(Dra
ft f
or
revie
w)
2-1
-18
10
TOW
N O
F N
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Y PR
OJE
CTE
D IM
PAC
T O
F W
AG
E IN
CR
EASE
SFY
2019
FY20
20FY
2021
FY20
22FY
2023
103.0
0%
103.0
0%
10
3.0
0%
10
3.0
0%
10
3.0
0%
100.0
0%
100.0
0%
10
0.0
0%
10
0.0
0%
10
0.0
0%
FY20
16FY
2017
FY20
18FY
2019
FY20
20FY
2021
FY20
22FY
2023
Bud
get
Bud
get
Bud
get
Proj
ecte
dPr
ojec
ted
Proj
ecte
dPr
ojec
ted
Proj
ecte
dG
EN
ER
AL
GO
VE
RN
ME
NT
57
3,6
91
63
3,4
53
67
1,0
55
69
1,1
87
71
1,9
22
73
3,2
80
75
5,2
78
77
7,9
37
NA
TU
RA
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AN
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44
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49
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ITY
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3,5
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inan
cial
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ct11
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011
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Cha
nge
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3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
CO
LA F
acto
rSt
ep In
crea
se F
acto
r
New
bury
FY
2019-2
3 F
inancia
l F
ore
cast (D
raft for
revie
w)
2-1
-18
per c
ent i
ncN
ewbu
ryFi
scal
Yea
rfr
om p
rior y
ear
Retir
emen
t Sha
re2018
601,4
00
2019
7.4
1%
645,9
64
2020
7.4
1%
693,8
30
2021
7.4
1%
745,2
42
2022
7.4
1%
800,4
65
2023
6.3
6%
851,3
74
2024
4.0
0%
885,4
29
2025
4.0
0%
920,8
47
2026
4.0
0%
957,6
80
2027
4.0
0%
995,9
88
2028
4.0
0%
1,0
35,8
27
2029
4.0
0%
1,0
77,2
60
2030
4.0
0%
1,1
20,3
51
2031
4.0
0%
1,1
65,1
65
2032
4.0
0%
1,2
11,7
71
2033
4.0
0%
1,2
60,2
42
2034
4.0
0%
1,3
10,6
52
2035
3.8
9%
1,3
61,6
36
2036
-80.2
4%
269,0
59
TOW
N O
F N
EWB
UR
Y R
ETIR
EMEN
T FU
ND
ING
SC
HED
ULE
Ja
nu
ary
20
17
Ap
pro
ve
d P
ER
AC
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nd
ing
Sch
ed
ule
New
bury
FY
2019-2
3 F
inancia
l F
ore
cast (D
raft for
revie
w)
2-1
-18
TOW
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F N
EWB
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Y FI
VE Y
EAR
FO
REC
AST
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R C
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TAL
INVE
STM
ENT
Exis
ting
Estim
ated
FY20
19-F
Y202
3 CI
PCa
pita
lCa
pita
lTo
tal
Capi
tal I
nv$
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geFI
SCAL
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ral F
und
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or/U
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ued
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osed
Deb
tO
pera
ting
Budg
etAr
ticle
sGR
AND
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CAST
EDas
% o
ffr
omYE
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bt S
ervi
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ervi
ce(e
stim
ated
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y as
You
Go
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Cas
hTO
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Reve
nue
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st B
udge
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ior Y
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01
85
14
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50
03
11
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18
02
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48
25
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62
0,6
19
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94
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20
19
48
8,0
07
39
7,5
00
TB
D3
21
,07
44
62
,00
01
,20
6,5
81
21
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4,6
86
5.7
%3
80
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52
02
04
72
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33
97
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5T
BD
33
0,7
36
47
7,0
00
1,2
00
,72
42
1,9
12
,12
75
.5%
-5,8
57
20
21
86
,40
03
97
,82
5T
BD
34
0,6
59
49
2,7
50
82
4,8
84
22
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3.7
%-3
75
,84
02
02
28
3,2
00
39
7,6
50
TB
D3
50
,87
95
09
,28
88
31
,72
92
2,6
85
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53
.7%
6,8
45
20
23
04
02
,25
0T
BD
36
1,4
05
52
6,6
52
76
3,6
55
23
,18
6,3
11
3.3
%-6
8,0
74
Excl
uded
ABOUT THE CENTER
The Edward J. Collins, Jr. Center for Public Management in the McCormack
Graduate School of Policy and Global Studies at the University of Massachusetts
Boston was established in 2008 to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of all
levels of government. The Center is funded by the Commonwealth and through
fees charged for its services.
Edward J. Collins, Jr. Center for Public Management
John W. McCormack Graduate School of Policy and Global Studies
University of Massachusetts Boston
100 Morrissey Blvd.
Boston, MA 02125
(617) 287-4824 (t)
(617) 287-5566 (f)
http://www.umb.edu/cpm