New Zealand in 2058
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New Zealand in 2058
sustainablefuture.info
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Jerome C. Glenn – Director, The Millennium Project and co-author of the
State of the Future, 2008
Joseph Coates,Professional Futurist,New York
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An avatar is a computer user's representation of himself/herself or alter ego.
Virtual reality (VR) is a technology which allows a user to interact with a computer-simulated environment, be it a real or imagined one.
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Strategic Knowledge
Data
Information
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Futures Studies
Probable futures: forecasting and sometimes prediction
Possible futures: scenarios, risks (Explorative)
Preferred futures: strategies and agendas for change, propelled by innovation and leadership (Visionary)
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Steps Towards Scenarios
1. Define project parameters, trends, driving forces, assumptions
2. Explore uncertainties and rank3. Build scenario worlds, write stories,
test4. Use consider implications, review,
communicate
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The Future of Mankind?
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The Maths – Why we count• 97 billion have lived• 90 have died• We are part of the 7 billion alive• 3 billion currently live on $2 or less• We are part of the 4 billion• Less than half are financially and
physically independent • So we in the room are representative of
about 2 billion that have time and $ to make a difference
• So 2 billion into 97 – we are the 2%
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2008
10 billion years
0 4.45b 5.55b
Be like the habilis - the archetypal jack-of-all-trades, inquisitive scavengers prepared to try almost anything to survive. Be tough, active, gregarious and noisy, always on the move and always alert to the possibility of a …meal.
Don't be like the boisei – whose behaviour was specialised for survival in only one niche, they didn't make it. They live within a strict social structure and are led by a dominant male whose strength and power holds the group together.
The boisei's specialisation has locked them into one way of living, and when their niche no longer exists, neither can they. But the habilis can adapt to a changing world - their generalist trait lives on in us.
Two million years ago, evolution tells us…
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Neanderthals Homo sapiensIn the South - have developed a mind capable of imagination - a creature capable of understanding and anticipating possibilities, with the gift of abstract thought.
In the North - have physical power but did not survive
2008
10 billion years
0 4.45b 5.55b
About 100,000 years ago …evolution tells us
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Wild Card 1
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200810 billion
years
2058
Big Big BangBang
2008 - 2058
50 YearsProject 2058
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Futures Studies
Probable futures: forecasting and sometimes prediction
Possible futures: scenarios, risks (Explorative)
Preferred futures: strategies and agendas for change, propelled by innovation and leadership (Visionary)
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Report 14 State of New Zealand’s Future
Report 15 Scenarios: Exploring New Zealand’s long-term future
NEW ZEALAND’S NATIONAL ASSETS
Report 7 The State Sector: Reviewing the landscape (2009)
Report 8 The State of Publicly Funded Science (2009)
Report 9 The State of Infrastructure (2009)
Report 10 The State of Natural Resources (2009)
Report 11 The Essence of New Zealand’s Identity (2009)
Report 12 Towards a Tikanga-Kaupapa Perspective on Sustainability (2009)
Report 16 A National Sustainable Development Strategy forNew Zealand
Report 13 A SWOT Analysis: New Zealand’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (2009)
Report 6 History of Past Future Thinkers (2009)
Report 1 A National Sustainable Development Strategy: How New
Zealand measures up against international commitments (August
2007)
A NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
STRATEGY
NEW ZEALAND’S GOVERNMENT
Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies: Reviewing
the landscape 1990-2007 (August 2007)
Report 3 Supporting Local Government: Existing initiatives for
sustainable development (March 2008)
Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development: Developing an optimal framework for New Zealand (October
2008)
Report 5 The Common Elements of a National Sustainable Development
Strategy: Learning from international experience
(October 2008)
Par
t 2:
Sce
nar
ios
Par
t 1:
Res
earc
h
Par
t 3:
Str
ateg
y
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1
3
2030 2058
Scenarios
Possible
Probable
Possible
2008
2
4
Fifty Years Into The Future
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1. Climate
2. Demography
3. Ecosystems
4. Energy Production
5. Food & Water
6. Values & Beliefs
7. Justice & Freedom
1. Management of Ecosystems & Resources
2. Infrastructure
3. Security & Terrorism
4. Technology
5. Governance & Institutions
6. Economic Risks
7. Information & Ideas
Wild Cards
Change Agents Response to Change Agents
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Wild Card 2
Terrorism & War
• Crime
• War
• Nuclear War
Wild Card 3
Health & Safety
• Antibiotic R.
• Pandemic
• Food
• Water
Wild Card 1
Technology
• Info
• Nano
• Bio
Given the - increase in population- increase in per capita consumption- climate change &- the existence of wildcards
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2008
20582008
In 2008, 3 billion make $2 or less per day. In 2058, it may be 6 billion.
The developed countries and China grow old – while Africa remains young.
2008
2058
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80% of all scientists are alive today
Things are looking up…
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Going Up
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Going underneath
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Going
underwater
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…Leaving
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Man & Machine?Man is expected to create a machine with the equivalent of a
human brain by 2029…
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Crime is now global• $1 trillion pa Illicit Trade
• 150 unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials in the last 4 years
• 20,000 active nuclear weapons
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Our generation is likely to have a life expectancy of 92 – 100 years of age.
Our children, if we fail to manage their weight gain, will have 80 year old bodies in 50 year old skin.
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Watch for Weak Signals
Responses for Powerful counties– Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress
mentality or– Serious engagement with all the problems of the
planet
Responses for Small counties– Ignore– Adapt (monitor closely what is happening)– Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc)– Build alliances (state of Australia, Pacific
Alliance?)– Try to shape (lead by example)
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Te Rauparaha (1760s-1849 )
For fifty years he was the most feared fighting chief and at one stage controlled about ¼ of NZ.
He was celebrated for his courage, cleverness, resourcefulness and skill in diplomacy – making him one of the greatest contemporary leaders in the traditional Maori style.
He was also considered to be the creator of the famous haka:
Ka mate! Ka mate!
NZ
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Julius Vogel (1835-1899)
Immigration and Works Scheme 1870A development plan designed to revive the economy and provide the pre-conditions of economic growth, included roads in the North, railways in the South …“do more to put an end to hostilities and to confirm peaceful relations, than an army of ten thousand men’…
“We considered it very desirable, in a young country, that wealth should not be in the hands of a few capitalists…[who]…would leave the country, and enjoy elsewhere the wealth so accumulated.”
NZ
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Is this a good deal in
1908?1958?2008? 2058?
NZ
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Livestock
NZ
Total number of livestock per country per person as at 30 June 2007
(Includes all cattle, sheep, and pigs)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
NewZealand
Australia Ireland Brazil* UK France China** USA India*
Total number per person
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Impacts (Who pays for pollution, loss of diversity, loss of options)
Quantity(Value Add)
Quality(Assurance)
WaterAir
Soil
Agriculture NZ
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ScenarioMatrix
…the World does
manageits opportunities
and threats
…the Worlddoes not manage
its opportunities and threats
New Zealanddoes
manage its strengths and
weaknesses and..
New Zealand does not manage
its strengths and weaknesses
and…
Our Findings
Fail
FailFail
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Why do you think scientists and engineers were able to devise the
atomic bomb in only four years and put a man on the moon in only eight
years?
What factors were necessary for these accomplishments?
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New Zealandneeds a
‘National Strategy’to optimise our future,to align our industry,
to reinforce our national brand and
to be an example of what is possible
- not because we have to, but because we want what it can
deliver
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