New York’s Solar Outlook: A Path to 50x30?

Intersolar & EES Summit East, 4/4/18Melissa Kemp, NYSEIA Policy Co-Chair

NY Clean Energy Standard

• The CES requires that 50% of all electricity consumed in New York by 2030 is from clean and renewable energy sources.

• Created when Governor Cuomo directed the State Department of Public Service to design and enact such a standard in December 2015, replacing the existing voluntary RPS goal.

• The CES is consistent with the State Energy Plan (SEP), converting the first goal of the SEP into an enforceable requirement.

Expected NY Consumption• Use the 2015 New York State Energy Plan consumption

forecast for 2030, which is 185,384,000 MWhs/year1

• It is based on the NYISO Gold Book through 2022, and then used the 2013 New York State Energy Plan IPM modeling for 2022-2030

• The modeling includes reasonable assumptions such as:– Increased efficiency likely to be attainable, specifically

17,013,000 MWhs reduction in electrical sector2 (as compared to 11,339,000 MWhs achieved in 1999-2012 historically across all sectors3)

• Demand is expected to increase due to electrification of buildings and vehicles

1 NY State Energy Plan 2015, Volume 2 Tables 10B and 20A; 2 NY State Energy Plan 2015, Volume 2, Table 20A; 3 NY State Energy Plan 2015, Volume 2, Table 19

Existing RenewablesExisting MWh MWac

Hydro35,401,2344 5,658

Solar1,687,888 1,105

Offshore Wind- -

Onshore Wind3,940,180 1,827

Total41,029,302 8,590

4 Of this total hydro, 8,500,000 MWhs are existing imports from Canada Existing totals by technology were obtained from the NY SIR Inventory Information; & NYISO Existing Generating Facilities (wholesale)

New Renewables NeededNew MWh MWac

New Hydro 10,311,766 1,648

New Solar19,452,438 12,735

New Offshore Wind17,954,175 4,775

New Onshore Wind3,943,820 1,801

Total 51,662,199 20,959

Based on the recent draft analysis “Renewable penetration rates required to achieve New York’s CES Goal”, Dr. Brice Smith and Sameer Hairan, SUNY Cortland. The conservative assumptions of the analysis are detailed below.

Analysis Assumptions Regarding Total MW Needed

• Keeps all existing renewables selling in New York• Aggressively more than doubles existing NY imports of hydro

from Canada by adding 9,450,000 MWhs/year to add to hydro baseline, (which would bring NY’s imports to half of Hydro Quebec’s current exports)

• On-shore wind continues to grows at 10 year average despite much slower recent growth

• Assumes aggressive offshore wind development of doubling Governor Cuomo’s announced 2400 MWac goal to 4800 MWac.

• Remaining needs would need to be met by utility-scale and distributed solar

Needed Deployment Rates• If we backend all deployment as much as possible under the

assumption that renewable technologies may be cheaper than today to deploy per MW over next 12 years, we would need the following amounts per year:

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2018-19 2020-23 2024-27 2028-30

Resulting Minimum Needed MWac/Year

Onshore Wind Solar Offshore Wind

Needed Deployment Rates (Cont)

Minimum Needed Deployment Rates (Mwac/Year)

Onshore Wind Solar Offshore Wind Total

2018-19 140 250 0 390

2020-23 140 500 275 915

2024-27 140 1000 400 1540

2028-30 140 2000 700 2840

Needed Rates vs Expected Development

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032

Minimum Needed MWhs/Year of Additional Renewable Energy Vs Current Regulatory and Market Signals To Date in NY

Needed MWHs/Year Expected MWhs/Year

Needed Rates vs Expected Development (Cont)

• Despite a strong initial CES procurement, this shows NY at best barely keeping up in needed deployment through 2024, and that’s unrealistically assuming that all procured large-scale solar and wind gets built and also that there is no disruption to the wholesale market from a misimplemented NYISO carbon pricing program

• More likely, with the former accounted for, NY will be slightly behind in deployment by 2024, and will then have to have shifted from 2022 onwards to much greater procurement rates – from 2,000,000 MWhs/year to 3,500,000 MWhs/year to 6,000,000 MWhs/year, around 40-50% of which from 2020 on will need to be from solar

Conclusions• New York should increase large scale procurement rates

planned through 2021 to insulate against project attrition and to make the later procurement rates more attainable

• New York should confirm the adequacy and accuracy of current market and contract revenues for large scale projects, and not add market uncertainty

• New York should develop proper valuation of solar in the distribution level tariff to allow that market segment to grow and contribute to the deployment needs and also bring additional community and distribution grid benefits

Thanks and Questions?

Special thanks to Dr. Brice Smith, Sameer Hairan, and team @ SUNY Cortland!

Melissa KempNYSEIA Policy Co-ChairPolicy Director, Northeast – Cypress Creek Renewablesmelissa.kemp@ccrenew.com