New Themes for Analysing Neo- Carbon Society 2050 · 2016-08-30 · New, refined tasks based on...
Transcript of New Themes for Analysing Neo- Carbon Society 2050 · 2016-08-30 · New, refined tasks based on...
New Themes for Analysing Neo-
Carbon Society 2050
Sirkka Heinonen, Juho Ruotsalainen, Marjukka Parkkinen, Joni Karjalainen
Finland Futures Research Centre, University of TurkuWP1 Neo-Carbon Enabling Neo-Growth Society – Transformative Energy Futures 2050
6th Researchers' SeminarNeo-Carbon Energy Project
LUT, Lappeenranta 29th - 30th August 2016
UTU/FFRC:
Sirkka Heinonen (WP Leader)
Joni Karjalainen
Juho Ruotsalainen
Marjukka Parkkinen
Merja Lang
Sakari Nisula
VTT:
Tiina Koljonen
Lassi Similä
Juha Forsström
LUT:
Jarmo Partanen
Samuli Honkapuro
WP1
WP1 creates
the big picture: How could
the neo-carbon energy
system transform society
by 2050?
Probe the societal
ecosystem and social
relations of neo-carbon
powered futures to provide a
societal and business
vision.
Anticipate such futures with
tentative product, service
and social innovations.
New opportunities and
perspectives for citizens,
decision-makers and
businesses.
New, refined tasks based on work so far:
Task 1.1
Neo-carbon energy vision
Task 1.2
Neo-carbon powered social futures 2050
Task 1.3
Neo-carbon energy market & game-changing
actors (VTT & LUT)
Task 1.4
Opportunities for Finnish businesses
emerging through case countries
OUTCOMES
Breyer, C., Heinonen, S. & Ruotsalainen, J. (2016). New consciousness: A societal
and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet Earth.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Article in press.
- To show how a 100% renewable energy system
could be realised
- To show how the development of ICTs, together with
distributed, clean and cheap energy, could lead to
shared consciousnesses and identities by 2050
- To indicate how this ”new consciousness” could aid
in achieving sustainable lifestyles, and stimulate new
economic growth and societal progress
Article
The workshop groups anticipated the futures of
work in peer-to-peer, neo-carbon society of the
future.
The results have been documented and
analysed, and the report will be published
soon.
Futures Clinique II:
The Fuzzy Futures of
Neo-Carbon Work (April 2016)
The results of the futures clinique point to a “post-
work” future of a neo-carbon society, where work
as a separate sphere in society has more or less
withered away.
Automated, neo-carbon powered workplaces
could transform as communities found today
outside the economic sector. As a consequence,
the economic life would be defined and driven
partly by other than economic goals and values –
moral, cultural, aesthetic, and social.
Futures Clinique II:
The Fuzzy Futures of
Neo-Carbon Work (April 2016)
An article ”Ruotsalainen et al. (2016). Peer-to-
peer work in the digital meaning society 2050”has also been written based on the futures
clinique results.
The article is submitted to European Journal of
Futures Research (EJFR).
The futures clinique results
inspired new themes for the Neo-
Carbon Vision
Abundance
Neo-Carbon promises material abundance (cheap, abundant and decentralised energy, and synthetic
materials).
What are the social implications of
abundance?
How will companies transform in such a
future?
Will new forms of immaterial inequality arise?
Artificial intelligence and robotisation
If AIs and robots are embedded everywhere
in our environments, cheap and clean
energy are needed.
If Neo-Carbon enables ubiquitous AIs and
robots, what will the social implications be?
International Symposium
”Clean Disruption for Abundant Futures”
7th-8th June 2016 Kiasma, Helsinki
Two-day Futures Clinique III on the topics of
energy, internet, clean disruption and futures
of communities.
The objective was to address possible futures
and related societal transition towards the
convergence of energy and internet.
29.8.2016
Keynote speakers
José Cordeiro
Clean Disruption
EnerNet and
Energularity
Sirkka Heinonen
What is Disruption?
How to use
futures methods?
Christian Breyer
How to reach 100%
renewable energy
system?
Pasi Vainikka
Ten Worst Ideas
in Energy Future
Markku Wilenius
What is self-
organising work?
International Symposium
”Clean Disruption for Abundant Futures”
7th-8th June 2016 Kiasma, Helsinki
The event was also a Summer School for
doctoral and master’s students of futures
studies and other related disciplines.
José Cordeiro from the Singularity University
gave two keynote speaks on the internet of
energy and “energularity”.
The results will be documented
and published as a report
Futures Images of Group Work
at ”Clean Disruption for Abundant
Futures” 7th-8th June 2016Kiasma, Helsinki
The results will be documented and
published as a report
Society On-demand
Ethical Optimization
Storytellers & Plastic
Smiths
Not Sharing My Headache
Meaningful Living
New Entrepreneurial
Lifestyle
Business and Science: Leading the Way to Sustainable Energy
2nd Stakeholder Forum of the Africa-EU Energy Partnership
16-17 May 2016 | Milan, Italy
http://www.iisd.ca/energy/aeep/forum2/
http://www.aeep-forum.org/en/youth/young-scientists-and-entrepreneurs
Submitted paper: Using Deliberative Foresight to envision a Neo-Carbon Energy Innovation Ecosystem – Case Kenya
Evaluating Renewable Energy
Approaches and Business Models
• Idea: It is possible to compare renewable energy approaches (e.g. business models or projects)
• Data: Four cases were selected based on their societal significance
• Objective: To understand what is actually lasting and transformative change? What differences in impacts do innovation, projects or collaborations have and why?
Evaluating Renewable Energy
Approaches and Business Models
(Submitted paper)
2p Excellent (max.) – 1.5p Very good – 1.0p Moderate – 0.5p Poor – 0p Dissatisfactory (min.)
NB. Selected cases fromKenya represent realized approaches (moreinnovative ones may already be on their way)
Case
M-Kopa Solar
in Kenya
http://www.m-kopa.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/MkopaIII_Aug14_278.jpg
6.0 / 8.0 points
Deliberative
foresight
1.5 / 2.0 p
Transformative
potential
2.0 / 2.0 p
Innovation
ecosystem
1.0 / 2.0 p
Sustainability
1.5 / 2.0 p
+ Corporate
foresight
+ Design thinking
+ Testing model
with feedback
+ User needs
+ Affordability
+ Household RE
& decentral. ICT
+ Low-income
groups
+ High impact
+”Green”
business models
linkages
+ Competitions
+ Environm. CO2
+ Social
+ Economic
? Cultural
NEXT STEPS
An article on how changes in energy systems
relate to social and cultural changes –
literature survey
• Link open 21st July
until 8th August
• Millennium Project
and other experts
from case countries
invited
• Ongoing analysis
Expert survey on the Neo-Carbon
Scenarios 2050
• Questions on who are the changemakers
• Which scenarios are probable, preferable
• Sample questions:
• What would need to change in your country for
radical startups to flourish?
• How can society support these DIY engineers?
EXPERT SURVEY AS
INTERNATIONAL QUESTIONNAIRE
• Energising peer-to-peer urban futures – Challenges for urban
governance (Heinonen, Parkkinen, Karjalainen, Ruotsalainen):
abstract for oral presentation and full paper submitted
• Four themes:
1) Economically competitive urban futures
2) Sustainable and resilient urban futures
3) Equitable and inclusive urban societies
4) Digitally supported urban futures
• Topics related to energy: energy sources/demand/management,
energy poverty, energy security, regulation of energy, smart energy …
• 16 keynotes, incl.:• Herbert Girardet: Towards the Regenerative City
• Christoph Reinhart: Urban energy systems – Towards more
sustainable city and neighborhood design
URBAN TRANSITIONS GLOBAL SUMMIT SHANGHAI 5–9.9.2016
• WP1 2nd term:
• Societal vision (Task 1.1)
• Social implications of energy and changemakers (1.2)
• Scenario feedback and case country opportunities (1.4)
• Forthcoming articles:
• Energy futures and social change, energy innovation
ecosystem, peer-to-peer work in a RE world
• Abundance, artificial intelligence (AI) and robotisation as
emerging topics
• International Dissemination – Case Chile• Neo-Carbon Futures Clinique 24 October 2016, Santiago, Chile
• Consejo Foresight Conference 26-27 October 2016, Santiago, Chile
SUMMARY
Take note:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-19/solar-sells-in-chile-for-
cheapest-ever-at-half-the-price-of-coal
THANK YOU!WP 1
Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC team
NEW PUBLICATION
Breyer C, Heinonen S and Ruotsalainen J (2016). New consciousness:
A societal and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the
limits of planet earth, Technological Forecasting and Social Change
(Article in Press)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.029
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251630138X