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Peak oil by 2020Smith 09 Lewis L Smith, The author has been an advisor on energy to various governors of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico[USA]. Former director of what is now Puerto Ricos's Energy Affairs Administration. With extensive experience with energy-policy

formulation and the economics of energy-project evaluation, he is a "Middle East watcher" since 1961, 2009, PEAK OIL - COMING

SOON BUT WHEN? http://www.economicswebinstitute.org/essays/peakoil01.htm

Under the circumstances and in the writer's professional judgment, the best we can say is the following: There is a 90% chance thaworld crude-oil production will reach an all-time peak by or before 2020. There is at least a 60% chance that the subsequent decline

will be steep rather than shallow, whether or not a plateau follows the peak. A steep decline is expected to bring on a worldwide

depression and, possibly, regional wars over sources of energy. Needless to say, if you are a long-term or strategic planner, 2020 is

"just around the corner" with climate change waiting for us. Unfortunately many of the decision makers who still occupy important

positions in business and government are either "ostriches", "friends of petroleum" or "all of the above" and don't take any of the

above very seriously.

Peak oil coming before 2040Foster 8(John Bellamy,Research devoted to critical inquiries into theory and history, focusing primarily on the economic, politicaand ecological contradictions of capitalism and imperialism, but also encompassing the wider realm of social theory as a whole.

Teaching encourages in-depth, critical exploration of history and ideology, equipping students to learn to learn on their own.Peak Oil

and energy Imperialism.http://www.cym.ie/documents/peak_oil.pdf)

In February 2007 the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a seventy-five-page report on Crude Oil pointedly

subtitled: Uncertainty about FutureOil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak andDecline in OilProduction. It argued that almost all studies had shown that a world oil peak would occur sometime before 2040 and that U.S. federal

agencies had not yet begun to address the issue of the national preparedness necessary to face this impending emergency. For the

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http://www.cym.ie/documents/peak_oil.pdfhttp://www.cym.ie/documents/peak_oil.pdfhttp://www.cym.ie/documents/peak_oil.pdf

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GAO the threat of a major oil shortfall was worsened by the political risks primarily associated with four countries, accounting for

almost one-third of world (conventional) reserves: Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela. The fact that Venezuela contained almost 90

per cent of the worlds proven extra-heavy oil reserves made it all the more noteworthy that it constituted a significant political risk

from Washingtons standpoint

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