Presentation on Cambodia Railway Master Plan for the 36th ASEAN Railway CEO's Conference
NEW MASTER PLAN OF JABODETABEK RAILWAY
Transcript of NEW MASTER PLAN OF JABODETABEK RAILWAY
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
NEW MASTER PLAN OF JABODETABEK RAILWAY
Akira NEHASHI Tohir KARTABRATA Senior Executive Director Co-Project Manager Japan Railway Technical Service PT. Metro Transportama Consultant 2-17-8, Hongo, Bunkyouku, Tokyo Setiabdi 2 Bldg., Suite503A 113-0033 Japan Jl HR. Rasuna Said Kav. 62 Jakarta 12920 Fax: +81-3-5684-3170 Fax: +62-21-520-1434 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]
Abstract: Indonesian government and the railway sector have long been striving for the development of railways. Since 1960s Japan has long been cooperating and engaged in planning, engineering, advising and training of Indonesian Railways. Jakarta has a population of nearly 8.7 million inhabitants in an area of 661 km2. Jabodetabek area has a total population approaching 21.0 million in an area of 6,580 km2. The former railway master plan of Jabotabek area was established in 1981 aiming railway should take a big role in urban traffic. However, the motorization overwhelmed the poor urban rail and the railway transportation share stayed only 3% of all motorized traffic in the area. The New Railway Master Plan was proposed for the first time after twenty five years. The target year is 2020 and the railway share will be beyond 10% with all the efforts including the total promotion of public transportation use not only with the railway improvement itself. Key Words: Urban Railway, Master Plan, Public Transportation 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background The Government of Indonesia has made up his mind to establish modernized commuter railway system in Jabodetabek area, covering cities and regions of Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang and Bekasi. By utilizing the financial assistance from Japanese French and English government as well as finance of Indonesian government itself, the developments have been conducted by lots of investment focusing on improvement of railway infrastructure as well as strengthening transport fleet such as electrification, double tracking, track elevation, improvement of signaling system, station improvement, introduction of rolling stock (especially electric railcar and diesel railcar) including improvement of depot and workshop, etc. The above mentioned developments were based on the previous improvement program, namely Master Plan which was established in 1981 and elaborated by Master Program established in 1985.
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
However, it now becomes inadequate to develop furthermore improvements of Jabodetabek railway system based on the previous improvement program such as Master Program because of appearance of many surrounding conditions different from the previous ones, and also the necessity to consider a lot of requirements for further development of Jabodetabek railways which could not have been anticipated when the Master Plan or Master Program was formulated. Besides, there are other studies or activities which are currently underway within the Jabodetabek area and the results were not to be ignored. In other words, it is impossible to proceed its development program without considering those results.
The above mentioned three major studies or activities are : - The activity named as “Package B” aiming to formulate and implement various action plans which contain the countermeasures to solve the problems being faced on the Jabotabek railways in the fields of train operation, passenger service and maintenance of electric railcar as well as ground facilities. - The activity initiated by JBIC named as “Sector Study for Railway Sector in Indonesia” aiming to elaborate JBIC’s strategy on financial assistance to the railway sector in Indonesia. - The study named as “SITRAMP” aiming to draw up master plan of integrated transport system in the Jabodetabek area targeting up to 2020 and after 2020 sponsored by JICA.
Considering the above-mentioned changing situations around the Jabodetabek railways, it is strongly requested to arrange more comprehensive implementation program for further development of Jabodetabek railway system being covered up to 2020 at least for drawing up future targeted role and function of Jabodetabek railway system and what should be done to maintain its role and function not only on technical aspect of railway system but also on nonphysical aspect such as management , maintenance, railway business, services, safety etc, aiming to form a comprehensive new master plan of existing railway system in the Jabodetabek area. 1.2 Objective This report aims to introduce a new Master Plan of Jabodetabek railways in future with due consideration on both aspects of not only on physical improvement program of railway system, but also on its management improvement program. The issues comprising: a. Study History and Review b. Ridership Forecast c. Operation and Service Plan d. Maintenance Plan e. Major Projects f. Management Improvement Program g. Economic and Financial Analysis h. Targets of Further Development i. Inter-modal Issue j. New Master Plan.
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
2 STUDY HISTORY & REVIEW 2.1 Series of Studies The history of studies on Jabotabek Railways had already begun far before the study on Jabotabek Railway Master Plan in 1981. A. Studies before the Master Plan in 1981 a. “DKI Jakarta Master Plan 1965-1985” by the Government of DKI Jakarta, March 1967 b. A comprehensive Dutch Plan “Jabotabek Project” c. Jakarta Metropolitan Area Transportation Study (JMATS) d. Rapid Transit Study of Eastern Corridor (RTSEC) e. Jakarta Metropolitan Transportation f. Jabotabek Railway Development Projects (JARDEP) B. The Master Plan in 1981 C. Further studies after 1981 a. Feasibility studies of the projects mentioned in the Master Plan b. Execution of Review of Feasibility, by JARTS, 1985 c. Execution Plan, by JARTS, 1987 d. Integrated Transport System Improvement in Jabotabek Area (ITSI) by JICA, 1990 e. Action Plan for Better Operation of Jabotabek Railways (Package B Project), 2004 f. The Study of Integrated Transportation Master Plan (SITRAMP) by JICA, 2002/2004 2.2 Past Investment and Result The construction of infrastructures and procurement of rolling stocks for Jabotabek Railway were carried out by Jabotabek Railway Projects, which started constructing in 1982. Various kinds of investment had been adopted to improve tracks, stations, electrification, signaling, depots / workshops, procurement of EC/DCs, consulting services etc, which is done stage wise and divided into sub projects. The amount of project investment was about 1,642,327 million rupiah since 1982/1983 up to 1998/1999 (October1998) and 73% of which was OECF/JBIC loan from Japan. It is some difficult to count the past investment in yen or US dollar. However, some conversion shows the total amount is nearly 200,000 million yen up to these years. Jabotabek railway should have a reasonable relationship with the urban development and urban traffic plan. Four goals have been identified by SITRAMP, namely efficiency, equity, environmental betterment and safety/security, all related to transportation and to achieve the four goals for urban transportation system development, (1) Promotion of public transportation use (2) Alleviation of traffic congestion (3) Reduction of air pollutants and traffic noise (4) Reduction of traffic accidents and improvement of security. Based on those goals and policies Further Development of Jabodetabek Railway Project will be worked out.
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
2.3 Strategy based on SITRAMP Policy. The strategy applied for policy of promotion of public transport use, particularly on Jabotabek railway, will be as follows: a. Enhancement of transport capacity: - Improvement of the existing railway track and construction of new MRT lines - Improvement of EC maintenance system by establishment of standardization. - Not too many kinds of EC adopted and more efficient supply of spare parts - To establish spare parts manufacture to prevent the scarcity of spare parts b. Provide easier service for the society - To prepare more extensive public transport network, especially for the lower income people - Improvement of Train operation management to reduce the cost and increase the income - Improvement of interchange station plaza cooperate with local governments and developers - To promote public transport use, the land use in the surrounding area of railway station c. Improvement of railway business management - It is necessary to create accounting system providing appropriate information. - To separate Jabotabek Railway management institution from long/medium distance train - To increase railway transport safety improving signaling system and level crossings - To provide training programs for the train crews 2.4 Facts and Findings a. Various kinds of studies on Jabotabek railway had been made since 1965 (Master Plan of DKI Jakarta 1965-1985) up to 2004 (SITRAMP Phase II) and were adhered to the comprehensive urban development planning in Jabodetabek area. b. Some studies are partly implemented, but mostly are not implemented at all, so no more study will hopefully be necessary in the near future. However, the positive implementation should be considered and coordination between the stakeholders will be indispensable. c. Due to incomplete implementation of the programs, the performance of Jabotabek Railway was not complying with the estimated demand forecast. It was actually not too bad, because the number of passenger have been increasing and some of programmed projects were achieved such as track elevation of Central Line, double tracking of Bogor line and electrification throughout the existing lines, however the condition of railway transportation is far from good. The capacity is definitely short, not only of the number of electric cars but also of the total system itself, including maintenance ability. Even if the number of electric cars may increase, no improvement of maintenance and management will not get Jabotabek Railway anywhere.
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
3. RIDERSHIP FORECAST 3.1 Position of Railway The recent surveys shows the railway demands is increasing gradually, but the number of railway passengers in Jabodetabek is falling down after the peak in year 2001 according to the sales statistics by PT.KAI.
050
100150200250300350400450500
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Rai
lway
Pas
seng
ers
(000
) per
Day
PT.KAI
Estimated by Survey
PMS Survey in 1996-1998
SITRAMP Phase1 Railway Passenger Survey in 2000
SITRAMP Phase 2 Home Visit Survey in 2002
Fig 1 Daily Railway Passengers in Jabodetabek (source) In the Figure
The difference might be due to some reasons as followings. About 30 thousands passengers who use middle and long distance trains are excluded from the statistics of commuter trains. Some parts of monthly-discount passengers should be multiplied by commuting days. The statistics shows the average including holidays not only weekdays. However, the rest might be due to free riders because the separation looks like starting according to raising tariff. 3.2 Case Assumption Basic road networks and toll roads in the future are the same conditions as SITRAMP project. Future mass transit networks including railway, MRT, monorail and bus way are reflected in the recent plans which come from DKI plans and some assumptions in this master plan, but ordinary bus routes are not planned newly in this simulation although they should be reorganized according urban plan and other mass transit network. About railway one case has the present condition in year 2004 and another case has the improved condition by shorter headway and higher speed according to this master plan. For cases until year 2020 two new railway lines are considered which are the airport connection from the Seokarno-Hatta International airport to Tangerang Line and the MRT connection from Tangerang Line to the North-South MRT Line near Harmoni. For more future the other connections are planned but they have not been simulated. About MRT East-West line and North-South lines are planned in the future. The North-South sections completed until year 2020 are different by case. Two
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
monorail lines have been started construction. At present 3 bus-way routes have been operated and the routes will become 14 before year 2010. LRT from is also planned by DKI, but it is simulated by bus-way network in the traffic assignment.
Fig 2 Future Railway Network Table 1 Typical Cases of Demand Forecast
Railway
Case
Existing Railway
Improvement
Airport
Access
MRT
North-South
MTR
East-West
r10-00 X X X X
r10-02 O X O DA - LB X 2010
r10-03 O O Mgr O DA - LB X
r10-01 O O Mgr O Kota - Ciputat O PG - Kalideres
r10-02 O X O Harmoni - Ciputat X
r10-03 O O Mgr O DA - LB X
r10-04 O O Harmoni O Harmoni - Ciputat X
r10-05 X X O DA – LB X
2020
r10-06 O O Harmoni/Psn O Harmoni - Ciputat O Thb – Tg. P
Angke
Duri
Tangerang
Gambir
Tanahabang
Jatinegara Bekasi
DDT
Nambo
Bogor
Depok
Citayam
Kemayoran
Jakartakota
Tanjungpriok
Kampungbandan
ManggaraiCikarang
Ancol
Soekarno Hatta International
MRT/Bus
MRT/Bus
New loop Line
Airport Railway
New Depot・Work shop
New MRT Work shop・Depot
New Depot New Dept
New MRT Depot
Serpon
ParungpanjangRangkas
bitung
New Kota
Matraman
Pasarsenen
Pondokjati
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
3.3 Forecasted Ridership The typical case is that two monorail lines are operated. MRT is completed until year 2010 and is extended between Harmoni and Ciputat in year 2020. MRT and monorail total passengers by railways increase more highly than only one network. Number of passengers (r20-02) in Jabodetabek will be 2.8 times from year 2004 and the modal share will exceed 10% because more people can easily reach to their destinations. Other cases does not show much difference from the typical case in terms of railway passenger volume.
Table 2 Forecasted Ridership (the typical case) Year Year 2004 Year 2010 Year 2020
Case r10-03
New airport line
MRT (LebakBulus
– Sudirman)
Two Monorail
lines
r20-03
New airport line
MRT (Harmoni
– Ciptat)
Two Monorail
lines
Railway Share
in Inter Zone Trips
in Motorized Trips
in Total PT
3.1%
2.2%
1.2%
9.7%
7.2%
3.5%
10.5%
7.6%
4.0%
Passengers (Total)
Heavy Railway
MRT
Monorail
468,357
(Year2002)
1,747,732
1,034,542
283,860
429,330
2,250,382
1,498,986
380,568
370,828
Table 3 Modal Share of Transportation in Jabodetabek
Year 2002(2004) 2020 Mode passenger/day % passenger/day %
Motorized Total Trip 14,830,303 100.0 19,387,859 100.0 Bus 8,334,289 56.2 8,733,030 45.0 Train 456,752 3.1 2,026,141 10.5 Private Car 2,806,684 18.9 5,590,418 28.8 Motorcycle 2,901,679 19.6 2,555,309 13.2 Others 330,901 2.2 482,961 2.5
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
4. Train Operation and Service Plan 4.1 Present status of Jabotabek Railway The route length is 170.2 km in total, most of which has been electrified and the automatic signaling system introduced. Sixty-seven percent or 115 km has a double track.
Fig 3 Present Railway Network of Jabotabek 4.2 Improvement Plan The existing Jabotabek Railway has different lines connected with its East-West Loop Line at different junctions, such as, Tangerang Line at Duri, Serpong Line at Tanahabang, Central/Bogor Lines at Manggarai and Bekasi Line at Jatinegara. Loop Line does not provide a circle operation. However, trains on radial lines run directly to Kota station via West or East
AngkeAngke
TangerangBatuceper
Pesing
RawabuayaKali d
eres
Poris
BojongindahDuri
Tanahabang
Mampang
Dukuhatas(Sudirman)
Karet
Palmerah
Rawabuntu
Sudimara
Pondokranji
Kebayoran
Manggarai
Gambir
Gondangdia
Juanda
Sawahbesar
Manggabesar
Cikini
Tebet
Pasarminggu
PasarminggubaruDurenkalibata
Cawang
Univ. Pancasila
Lentengagung
Tanjungbarat
Univ. Indonesia
Citayam
Depok
Bo
TangerangBatuceper
Pesing
RawabuayaKali d
eres
Poris
BojongindahDuri
Tanahabang
Mampang
Dukuhatas(Sudirman)
Karet
Palmerah
Rawabuntu
Sudimara
Pondokranji
Kebayoran
Manggarai
Gambir
Gondangdia
Juanda
Sawahbesar
Manggabesar
Cikini
Tebet
Pasarminggu
PasarminggubaruDurenkalibata
Cawang
Univ. Pancasila
Lentengagung
Tanjungbarat
Univ. Indonesia
Citayam
Depok
BojonggedeCilebut
Bogor
Gunungputri
NamboCibinong
Cakung
Jatinega
ra
Klende
r
BekasiKran
ji
Buaran
Klenderbaru
Rawabeb
ek
Pondokjati
Gangsentiong
Kramat
Pasarsenen
Kemayoran
Bukitduri
Cipinang
Kampungbandan
TanjungpriokAncol
Jakartagudang
Pondokrajeg
Rajawali
Blai Yasa
Manggarai
Jayakarta
Jakartakota
Serpong
PondokcinaDepokbaru
Cen
tral L
ine
Easte
rn L
ine
Tanjungpriok Line
Wes
tern
Lin
e
Serp
ong
Line
Tangerang LineBo
gor L
ine
Bekasi Line
Nambo Line
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
Line. The disturbance of one train operation sometimes affects other lines. As Central/Bogor, Bukasi and West Lines intersect with each other at grade at Manggarai station. After the completion of the Manggarai station improvement, racket operation (semi-loop operation) will be implemented between Bekasi and Loop Line in order to improve the convenience of East and West Lines. Turn-back operation will start for the Serpong Line at Tanahabang and for Tangerang Line at Duri in order to simplify the train operation services and it will greatly contribute to the stable operation of Jabotabek Railway. MRT South-North Line is now under preparation. MRT East-West Line is also planned, where the bus way system is now in operation in the dedicated bus lane.
4.3 Transport Plan for 2012 ( Bekasi Line double tracked.) At present, the intercity train services have four terminal stations, Gambir, Pasarsenen, Tanahabang, and Jakarta Kota. Intercity trains share the same tracks with commuter trains, and the operation routes are complicated. These contribute adversely to daily train operation. When the quadruple-tracking work is completed, Manggarai station will become a long-distance passenger terminal, and commuter train service will be operated independently from intercity trains to secure the stable daily transport.
Table 4 Transport Plan when quadruple tracking is complete
Line Section Year No. of
trains Head Way
(min) Capacity Passenger
Volume Congestion rate
(%) 2001 13 9.2 8,448 22,240 263Bekasi Jatinegara
-Bekasi 2012 24 5.0 22340 48,428 2172001 18 6.7 15,224 51,744 340
Bogor Manggarai -Depok 2012 28 4.3 28,000 67,207 240
2001 7 17.1 6,800 14,089 207Serpong Tanahabang -Kebayoran 2012 14 8.5 15,680 28,509 182
2001 2 60 800 2275 284Tangerang Duri -Tangerang 2012 7 17.1 7840 14,273 182
Note: Eight-car train sets are assumed for all lines in 2012. Table 5 Number of train cars required (Updated)
Line 2001 2012 (Upon operation start of DDT) Bekashi/Loop 25 of 8-car train sets 200 cars Bogor/Central 42 of 8-car train sets 336
Serpong 17 of 8-car train sets 136 Tangerang 4 of 8-car train sets 32
Tanjungpriuk 2 of 8-car train sets 16
Operation
in use total 232 720 Extra 48 ― Total 280 720
Note: a. Extra cars are not included. 110 extra cars will be required for 15% of cars in use. b. Serpong Line assums to be electrified up to Rangkasbitung station.
In addition to Depok depot which is under construction, further depots will be required to house more than 800 rolling stock cars that are required under the 2012 plan. The number of cars assigned to one depot for inspection must be determined taking into consideration the
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
operation of trains, types of cars to be assigned and other factors. The number of cars in use (excluding extra cars) of Jabodetabek Railway in 2020 is assumed as 1,126. The figure may increase more after 2020 and when accounting for extra cars. It is estimated that, in addition to Depok depot that will start operation in 2007, one depot that performs up to function monthly/annual inspection work for Bekasi Line and another depot for daily checkup and car washing for Serpong Line will be required in 2012. 4.4 Jabodetabek Transport Upgrading Plan for 2020 The Jabodetabek transport upgrading plan for 2020 is premised on the assumption that the following new railway lines have been completed by 2020. - MRT South-North Line, from Lebak Blus to Monas - MRT East-West Line, from Grogol to Monas/Gambir - Airport Line, from Kalideres to Air terminal In developing a transport plan for peak hours, the frequency of train operation was calculated based on the section traffic volume by line determined from the OD chart for 2020.
Table 6 Estimated passenger and transport capacity during peak hour in 2020
Line Formation Trains/h Capacity Passenger Congestion Rate (%)
Central /Bogor 10 cars 15(Ex.4, Lo.11) 21,000 26,194 125
Bekasi 12 15(Ex.3.,Lo.14) 25,200 50,941 202
Serpong 10 12(Ex.3,Lo.9) 16,800 25,199 150
Tangerang 6 16 15,072 27,420 182
Table 7 Number of Rolling Stock in 2020
No. of train sets No. of cars Division Line In use Extra Total In use Extra Total Central/Bogor Lines 10×38 10×5 10×43 380 50 430Bekasi, Loop Lines 12×43 12×5 12×48 516 60 576Serpong Line 10×23 10×3 10×26 230 30 260
516 610
60 80
576690
Jabotabek Railway
Total
12×4310×61
12×510×8
12×4810×68
1126 140 1266South-North Line 6×23 6×3 6×26 138 18 156
East-West, Tangerang Airport Lines 6×21 6×3 6×24
126
18 144
Airport Line (Limited Ex. trains) 6×8 6×1 6×9
48
6 54
MRT Airport Line,
Tangerang Line
Total (Commuter)
6×44(Limited Ex.)
6×8
6×6 6×1
6×50
6×9
264
48
36
6
300
54
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
5. MAINTENSNCE PLAN The suggestion and recommendation on infrastructure maintenance for tracks and electrical facilities as well as on maintenance of rolling stock are proposed. To modernize track maintenance work it is required not only to introduce maintenance equipment but also to establish a maintenance organization and structure to fully utilize the functions of the equipment. For signaling/telecommunication and electrical system the establishment of company for maintenance with license system, improvement of technical education program, enhancement activities for ability, personal interchange between the administrative and field organizations and deregulation are required. For rolling stock maintenance depots and workshops are required. The points of improvement on maintenance system are systematic regulation/rules, systematic maintenance industry/outsourcing, an introduction on advanced technology and assistance from the state government. 6. MAJOR PROJECTS 6.1 Systematic Diagram of Main Project Major projects for the master plan consist of the projects that have been studied and recommended in the previous surveys, the projects that are currently being studied in Indonesia, and the projects that are newly recommended for this time.
Main Project in JABOTABEK toward 2020
Modernization(OCC/Maintenance)
Track AdditionNew Line
Upgrading Facility Electrification
Depot & WorkshopRolling Stock
Output
Customer NeedTraffic DemandTraffic Volume
Speed-upHeadway
EfficiencyFailure Recovery
Punctuality
Input
External DGR DKI
Improvement of ServiceIncreasing Traffic Capacity
Improvement of Safety Integrated Operations Effective Maintenance
Connection with other OCC
Existing System (PT.KAI)
Direct operation with MRT
External (Management Segregation)
Fig 4 Systematic Diagram
6.2 Project Implementation Program The main items of evaluation are Degree of influence on a future base, Necessity for an entire public transportation network, Convenience for passengers, Concern about the operation plan, Effect on an increased demand, Construction costs and workability, Improvement of safety, Effect on punctual operation, Social restriction such as land availability, and others.
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
Table 8 Implementation Program
2006 -2010
2011 -2015
2016 -2020
2021 &after
1. Modernization 717 282 236 43 156
2. Tracks Addition 1,098 290 367 0 441
3. New Line Construction 9,454 797 1,568 618 6,471
4. Improvement & New Station 466 94 201 47 124
5. Improvement of LevelCrossing 173 12 16 145 0
6. Elctrification 40 20 20 0 0
7. Depot and Workshop 550 350 200 0 0
8. Rolling Stock 1,770 500 620 650 0
Total 14,268 2,345 3,228 1,503 7,192
Cost(MUS$)Project Name
SCHEDULE of INVESTMENT
Investment Cost & Schedule for Railway Project
7. MANAGEMENT IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM JABOTABEK Railway Commuter Spin-Off Format will be a main issue of the management improvement program. Taking into account the opportunities and risks of all the models, the establishment of JABODETABEK Railway Commuter Corporation as a DKI Jakarta government-owned company (BUMD) is recommended. Currently four ownership models are under consideration for the proposed spin-off of Jabotabek division from PT.KA.
Spin Off Scheme Alternatives on JABOTABEK Railway
PT.KAI
JabotabekCommuter Railway Sister
Company (BUMN) Jabotabek
Commuter Railway Regional Company (BUMD)
JabotabekCommuter
Railway Daughter Company
JabotabekCommuter
Railway Private
Company (BUMS)
DKI Jakarta
Government
JabotabekRailway Division
Management Improvement
Fig 5 Management Improvement program
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
Table 9 Jabotabek Railway Spin-off Formats
DDBBDDAABBPrivate
Company
AAAAAABBAARegionalCompany
CCDDCCDDDDDaughterCompany
BBCCBBCCCCSister
Company
ImplementationCooperationLocal Gov.
Inter-modalConsideration
Commercially-Oriented
Commuter- Oriented
AlternativeAlternative
Comparison of features of four Spin-off alternatives
8. ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL ANALYSIS EIRR is a littele over 10%, which is not high enough but not low at all. Actually, if CO2 emission is assumed more realistic figures of 150% and 200%, it will rise to 10.64% and 11.11% respectively. The later cases are more realistic because it is difficult even for new cars to keep CO2 emission level under the regulated ceiling of CARB in 2016.
Table 10 Economic Analysis
11.11%52,567200%Case 3
10.64%50,767150% Case 2
10.17%48,967100%Base Case
EIRRTotal Cash FlowBillion Rps
CO2 Emissionof CARB
Sensitivity Analysis of EIRR
FIRR shows minus 1.20% in the base case, because the tariff is assumed unchanged. However, if the higher tariff is adopted for the better service, FIRR will be changed better to 1.19% by annual raise of 3%, 2.17% by 4% and 3.24% by 5%.
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
Table 11 Financial Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis of FIRR
3.24%57,9475 % ( Case 4 )
2.17%48,9984 % ( Case 3 )
1.19%41,424 3 % ( Case 2 )
-1.20%24,959 0% (Base Case)
FIRRTotal Cash FlowBillion
Rps
Annual Raise of Tariff
9. INTERMODAL ISSUE It is essential to select appropriate types of systems according to the transport distance and volume and to combine measures together. Coordination with other transport modes and development plans are quite necessary with inter-governmental cooperation in line with environmental assessment.
10. NEW MASTER PLAN 10.1 Targets of Further Development In order to measure the further development the indexes will be introduced to represent the condition of Jabodetabek Railways in the future. Basic items should be the data which are clear to see and easy to obtain.
1 2 5 1 0 5 0 1 0 0 K m
2 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
Traf
fic d
ensi
ty
Bicycle Private car
Mass tra nsit
Personal transit
Person km/day/one way
On
foot
Trav
elat
or
Bus
Monora il
HSST
Urban rai lways (MRT PT.KAI)
Fig 6 Appropriate System of Urban Transportation
Bus and Bus Way
Taxi, Ojek, Bajai, Motorcycle, Car
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
10.2 New Master Plan Major projects are classified into three groups, namely Normalization of Safety/Security, Strengthening of Capacity/Network and Convenience/Inter-modal. The guideline to select the higher priority will be classified into three ranks, namely Basic, Optional and Future Consideration. 10.3 Results and Recommendation a. Future Railway Network includes Jabotabek Railway, MRT and Mopnorail. Freight and ling distance transport should be considered properly. b. Ridership forecast based on SITRAMP shows 10% railway share in inter-zone motorized trips in 2020. Its realization owes to TDM, the normalization of operation and maintenance and other inter-modal issues. c. Operation plan is recommended as semi-loop operation and through operation between Jabotabek Railway and MRT. Infrastructure and depots/workshops should be provided timely for the revenue service. d. Maintenance plan should be executed as normalization project until 2012. e. Management improvement begins with basic matters as much as possible. Spin-off must be considered urgently. f. Economic/financial analysis will pay for investment reducing considerable road traffic and reasonable increase in tariff and PSO will affect the break even point. g. Leys to inter-modal issues should be applied in Jabodetabek area. h. Target indexes, project grouping and construction schedule are provided to implement NEW Master Plan.
Target Index of Package C(Draft) Item Index Unit 2000 2005 2020(Target)
1. Safety Fatalities and the wounded persons/train km 38.2
(150)25.4
(100)
0
2. Security Squatted right of way km 8.4 (100)
0
3. Punctuality Average delay time min/train 7.7(140)
5.5 (100)
0
4. Capacity Non-operated electric cars non/total % 29
(100)29
(100)
0
5. Network Train-kilometer operated
km/day
11,113(81)
13,723 (100)
50,000 (364)
6. Convenience Passengers at transferable stations
Jak St. PseSt. persons/day Thb St
31,241(113)
27.651 (100)
100,000 (362)
7. Passenger Total railway passengers
persons/day
324,384(117)
276,628 (100)
1,500,000 (542)
8. Revenue Total amount of JABOTABEK Rail
billion Rp/day
0.244(48)
0.511 (100)
3.79 (742)
. (Note) The figure in parentheses shows the index when 2005 year is assumed to be 100
Table 12
Proceedings of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.6, 2007
Unit : milion US$
342・MRT S-N Line (Ciputat - Lebak Bulus - Harmoni)
1,340・Airport Access (Kds - Airport)
530
160・MRT E-W Line A (Grg - Gmr, Tng - Grg, Depot/Workshop)
1,120・Tpg Container Terminal
60
・Electrification & Modernization
40・DDT Bekasi Line (Mri - Bks - Ckr, Depot)
470
120・DT & Electrification Serpong Line (Thb - Prp - Rk, Depot)
170
・Mono-rail (Blue/Green Line)
700
・EC for Heavy Rail
1,320
・EC for MRT
350
662
5,470
590
・Track Elevation-East Line(New Kota - Pok)
150・MRT S - N Line (Harmoni - New Kota)
160・New Kota St.
453
・Grade Separation (5) & Automatic Warning
37・MRT E-W Line A (Gmr - Pulogadung)
510・Improvement (Sudirman, Tanahabang)
40
・MRT E -W Line B (Thb - Tpk)
1,000
・DDT (Bks - Ckr)
110
187
1,780
493
・Electrification (Cta - Nmo)
0・MRT E-W Line C (Balaraja - Tangerang)
1,020・Outer Loop Line (Tpg -Srp)
700
・Short-cut (Tangerang Line - Thb)
40・MRT E-W Line C (Bekasi - Tangerang)
1,500
・Short-cut (Eastern - Mri, Serpong - Krt)
255・MRT S - N Line (New Kota - Ancol)
160
・MRT E - W Line A (Pulogdung - Cikarang)
510
・DDT (Thb - Mri)
150
295
3,340
700
1,144
10,590
1,783
・Station Square (25 Stations)
Capacity/Network
Intermodal
September 15, 2006
FutureConsideration
Total
Total
Total
Nomalization
Strengthning
Convenience
Safety/Security
Package C Projects Grouping for 2020 (Draft)
①②
③
Total
Total
Total
OptionalPriority
Total
Total
Total
Basic Priority
・Safty Devices (Signaling, Overbridge, Platform)
・New Workshop & Depot (Dp)
Sub-total
Sub-total
Sub-total
Grand Total
13,517
Tabl
e 13