New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain areas: climate-related development and challenges for...
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![Page 1: New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain areas: climate-related development and challenges for sustainable use in the Swiss Alps [Christian Huggel]](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060204/559f61bf1a28ab74528b4807/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Extreme climatic events in the Andes:
impacts and adaptation
C. Huggel
L. Angulo, P. Calanca, C. Jurt, M. Rohrer, G. Romero
N. Salzmann, E. Silvestre
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January 2010 rainfall, flood and debris flow
disasters in Cusco
Repeated short-medium duration, local-
regional events
Types of extreme events
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Sudden, local events:
Flash flood in Taray, Cusco Region, March 2010
Predes
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Long-duration, regional events:
Cold waves in the high Andes
Predes
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Glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF), Laguna
513, Carhuaz, Cordillera Blanca
Thousands of people have been killed in
such events in Peru in the past
Sudden, local-to-regional events
based on cumulative climate change related
developments in the cryosphere:
G. Kaser
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C. Portocarrero 11 April 2010
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• Andes-wide: DESINVENTAR: 1970 to present
• Nation-wide: SINPAD (INDECI)
Trends in extreme events?
- documentation of extremes
Alle_Ereignisse_distritos_cu_71-80
Nr_Emergencias
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1 - 5
6 - 10
11 - 15
16 - 20
21 - 25
26 - 30
>30
Disasters 1971-1980 Cusco, on
the level of Distritos
A. Raissig
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• Andes-wide: DESINVENTAR: 1970 to present
• Nation-wide: SINPAD (INDECI)
=> Consistency of documentation is critical
Disaster inventory data
Alle_Ereignisse_distritos_cu_01-08
Nr_Emergencias
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1 - 5
6 - 10
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>30
Disasters 2001-2008 Cusco, on
the level of Distritos
A. Raissig
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Heavy precipitation and floods
in Cusco, January 2010
• Daily max. precip: 46 mm
• Monthly accumulated rainfall: 255 mm
• In 45 years only 3 occurrences with
daily rain >45 mm
>23,000 people
affected,
>4,500 houses
destroyed
Trends in extreme events?
- climate data
![Page 10: New lakes in deglaciating high-mountain areas: climate-related development and challenges for sustainable use in the Swiss Alps [Christian Huggel]](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060204/559f61bf1a28ab74528b4807/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Trends in extreme rainfall events?
The 30 largest rainfall event in Cusco for 1965-2010
Deriving trends in extreme events is tricky and complex (detection)
Establish relation with climate change even more complex (attribution)
Feb rainfall distribution, Cusco, 1971-2009
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Climate indices vs impacts felt by local people
IPCC AR4, WG I
?
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Climate change impact effects
Climate
Climate change
Temperature
increase
Humidity
change
Rainfall intensity
change
Biophysical
vulnerability (e.g. vegetation,
terrain, etc)
Physical
impacts
Impacts felt by local
people
Socio-economic
vulnerability (e.g. poverty,
livelihood
conditions)
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Example in the high Andes
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Local community of Phinaya
• at ~5000 m asl
• ~200 families
• mostly Alpaca and Vicuña farming
• highly exposed to climatic variability and extremes
Perceptions of climate change and extreme events by local people:
• cold spells have always occurred and people were prepared for them in May,
June, July, but now they occur in any moment
• less constant, predictable weather patterns than earlier
• more rain than snow
• hotter and more intense radiation (mountains are ‘less white’)
• their systems to ‘read’ the weather is today more difficult to apply
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Adapt to what?
Implications for adaptation
Understand vulnerabilities and risks !
Künzler
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Forms of adaptation
• autonomous adaptation
• planned adaptation
• anticipatory / proactive adaptation (IPCC)
=> a continuous iterative process!
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Example of adaptation to extreme events
Early warning system for landslide and floods in
the Cordillera Central of Colombia
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Knowledge on
existing risks
Monitoring and
warning service
Communication
CREPAD Ibagué
Sensor de nivel del río
Preparedness
and response
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Technical component
Social component
Institutional component
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Conclusions for adaptation
• Extreme events and related disasters are a complex combination of natural
and social/political/economic factors
• The consideration of the different levels of impacts and vulnerabilities is
critical for a thorough analysis
• Due to this and further problems of documentation, trends of extreme
events in the Andes are difficult to derive but nevertheless some tendencies
are probably detectable
• Due to the uncertainties involved, adaptation must be robust and effective
on different social and institutional levels
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Thanks for your attention!
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2005 2006 2007 2008
helada_ap_05
NR__EMERGE
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• La distribución de heladas en cuatro diferentes años
• Los años 2007 y 2008 muestran heladas pronunciados
A. Raissig
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sequia_ap_04
NR_EMERGEN
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2004 2005 2006 2007
sequia_ap_05
NR_EMERGEN
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• La distribución de sequías en cuatro diferentes años
• El año 2005 muestra una sequía pronunciado
A. Raissig