New Development BROOKLYN Year-End Report€¦ · Development Report. This report focuses...

“Halstead Property Development Marketing is pleased and excited to present our first Year-End New Development Report.

This report focuses exclusively on the NYC new development condominium market, and aims to be the only report of its kind presenting

a comprehensive picture of new development activity.”

STEPHEN KLIEGERMANPRESIDENT HPDM

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED

BROOKLYN

$1,129

AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*

TOTAL INVENTORY SOLD**

$997

1,001

22.5%

MANHATTAN

$2,215AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED

AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*

TOTAL INVENTORY SOLD**

$2,086

3,512

44.5%

New Development Year-End Report

*Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.**Total Inventory Sold includes units that are Contract Signed and Closed.

MANHATTAN BROOKLYN

Summary Points

•DOWNTOWNMANHATTANSAW

THEMOSTNEWDEVELOPMENT

ACTIVITY in 2014 with over 1,150

units Closed or Contract Signed,

and a current average Active Price

per Sq. Ft. of $2,761. (SEE PAGE 3)

•BROOKLYNISCONTINUINGTO

EMERGEASAMAJORMARKET

for new developments. With a total

number of Contract Signed and

Closed units of approximately 220 in

2014, the Brooklyn new development

market is now roughly 10.5% as

large as the Manhattan market by

transaction volume. HPDM expects

that figure to grow in 2015 as

development in Brooklyn continues

to be robust. (SEE PAGE 9)

•52%OFACTIVENEW

DEVELOPMENTLISTINGSIN

MANHATTANAREPRICED

OVER$5Mwith an average Active

Price per Sq. Ft. of $2,757, bolstered

by Billionaire’s Row and a strong

luxury market. New development

price points in Brooklyn are more

approachable, with over 60% of

Active listings priced below $2M.

Active Price per Sq. Ft. in Brooklyn

remains very strong heading into

2015, averaging $1,326. (SEE PAGE 8)

•MEDIANPRICEPERSQ.FT.FOR

ACTIVELISTINGSINMANHATTAN

are 24.4% higher than Contract

Signed listings in 2014, reflecting

continued robust pricing in the new

development market as we move

into 2015.

• EXCLUDINGBILLIONAIRE’SROW,

THENEIGHBORHOODWITH

THELARGESTQUARTER-OVER-

QUARTERAVG.PRICEPERSQ.FT.

INCREASE in Manhattan was Harlem,

which saw a 17.4% Price per Sq. Ft.

increase to $1,095 PSF in Q4 2014,

predominately due to the Adeline

at 23rd West 116th Street.

(SEE PAGE 4)

•TWOBEDROOMSSAWTHEMOST

CONTRACTSIGNEDANDCLOSED

LISTINGSINMANHATTAN with over

740 new development units. One

Bedrooms were the most popular

unit size in Brooklyn with 90 units

either Contract Signed or Closed.

(SEE PAGE 7)

MEDIANPRICEPERSQ.FT.

Active $2,532 $1,227

Contract Signed $2,035 $1,119

Closed $1,742 $957

AVERAGEPRICEPERSQ.FT.

Active $2,757 $1,326

Contract Signed $2,215 $1,129

Closed $2,086 $997

MEDIANPRICE

Active $5,265,000 $1,565,000

Contract Signed $2,937,500 $1,275,000

Closed $2,036,500 $1,250,000

AVERAGEPRICE

Active $8,028,775 $2,045,116

Contract Signed $4,558,519 $1,520,240

Closed $4,286,106 $1,297,561

TOTALINVENTORY(UNITS)

Total 6,328 1,291

Units Available 3,512 1,001

% Closed or Contract Signed

44.5% 22.5%

HPDM | 2014 New Development Year End Report | 1


Introduction

HPDM is pleased and excited to

present our first Year-End New

Development Report. This report

focuses exclusively on the NYC new

development condominium market,

and aims to be the only report of its

kind presenting a comprehensive

picture of new development activity.

New development is unique from

the overall real estate market in that

closings often do not occur until 12

to 18 months after a buyer enters

into contract. To fully understand this

market it is critical to track current

listings, listings in contract, closed

listings, as well as total inventory.

This report analyzes 2014 as a whole

and is also a snapshot of current new

development market conditions.

New development pricing was very

robust in 2014. With an average

Active Price per Sq. Ft. of $2,757

in Manhattan and $1,326 in Brooklyn,

we expect to see a strong pricing

dynamic continue into 2015. However,

we do expect a new trend to emerge

as developers seek to build more

efficient units and serve the currently

undersupplied lower price segments

in the market — specifically the

$1-$4M range.

METHODOLOGY:

• All data is provided by proprietary

Halstead Property Development

Marketing research.

• This report tracks new development

projects only, defined as those new

to the market and currently selling

sponsor units. Buildings that have

fully sold out of sponsor units are

not included, even though they may

have recently been built. Resale

data is not included in this report.

• All Active listings were compiled

as of 12/23/14.

• TotalInventory is defined as all new

development units, both currently

listed as either Active, Contract

Signed, or Closed, as well as those

units not yet released to the market.

AvailableUnits is defined as new

development units that are either

currently listed as Active or those

not yet released to the market.

These numbers include units

released prior to 2014, provided they

are in a project that has not sold out

all sponsor units. This data provides

a comprehensive look at new

development inventory by including

currently unreleased units that are

not yet listed as Active.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

MARKET OVERVIEW ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5

ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7

PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

TOTAL INVENTORY ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

FURTHER INSIGHT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

CONTACT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11


Market Overview

The most new development activity in Manhattan occurred Downtown where over

1,150 units either entered into contract or closed in 2014. Next to Billioinaire’s Row,

the area with the highest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. was the Upper East Side.

ACTIVE,CONTRACTSIGNED,CLOSED—AVG.PRICEPERSQ.FT.

*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint,

Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Redhook, Williamsburg.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

$6,000

BROOKLYN**DOWNTOWNMIDTOWN EASTBILLIONAIRE'S ROW*

MIDTOWN WESTUESUWSHARLEM

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

$2,7

97

1,161

223

153

$3

,64

7

$1,

136

$1,

06

1

$2,2

51

$2,1

17

$1,

80

3

$5

,010

$1,

975

$1,

69

6

$1,

99

6

$2,7

06

$1,

54

3

$1,11

6 $6

90

NUMBER OF UNITS

112114

237162

128

GROUND UP CONVERSIONS TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

$6,000



$2,8

17

$2,7

51

$4

,44

2

$4

,64

7

$1,

326

$1,

129

$9

97

$2,7

61

$2,5

13

$1,

80

4

$2,4

24

$1,

80

3

$5

,38

5

$1,

775

$2,4

25

$1,

776

$1,

43

5

$3

,09

6

$1,

96

5

$1,

156

$1,

04

0

$6

88

ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED


Market Overview by Quarter

CONTRACTSIGNED,CLOSED—AVG.PRICEPERSQ.FT.



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

$6,000



$2,8

47

$2,7

20

$2,8

51 $3

,63

1

$3

,98

4

$5

,39

8

$1,

05

0

$1,

30

2

$1,

131

$1,

108

$2,6

05

$2,3

82

$2,3

08

$2,3

05

$1,

76

2

$1,

726

$1,

85

2

$1,

83

8

$4

,15

5

$1,

812

$1,

917

$1,

714

$1,

674

$1,

775

$1,

74

6

$1,

85

7

$2,6

76

$1,

45

6$1,

09

2

$1,

016

$9

34

$1,

09

5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by quarter.

Excluding Billionaire’s Row, Harlem saw the largest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.

increase from Q3 to Q4 2014.


UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

$6,000

HELL'S KITCHENWEST CHELSEACHELSEAMIDTOWN EASTBILLIONAIRE'S ROW*


NUMBER OF UNITS

0

50

100

150

200

250

$2,7

97

112

141

79 87

114

237

162

66

128

$3

,64

7

$1,

54

3

$2,4

07

$2,5

66

$1,

79

0

$2,0

39

$1,

80

3

$5

,010

$1,

871

$1,

69

6

$1,

99

6

$2,7

06

$1,11

6 $6

90


The Upper West Side saw the most new development activity in the uptown

and midtown areas with 237 units Contract Signed and Closed. Billionaire’s Row

achieved the highest average pricing at over $5,000 per Sq. Ft. for ground-up

development.

*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS

Manhattan Neighborhood Insight

CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED

MANHATTAN—GROUND-UPVS.CONVERSIONS—AVG.PRICEPERSQ.FT.

MANHATTAN—ACTIVE,CONTRACTSIGNED,CLOSED—AVG.PRICEPERSQ.FT.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

$6,000

HELL'S KITCHENWEST CHELSEACHELSEAMIDTOWN EASTBILLIONAIRE'S ROW*


$1,15

6

$1,

04

0

$6

88

$2,4

25

$1,

776

$1,

43

5

$3

,09

6

$2,8

17

$2,7

51

$1,

871

$1,

89

9

$5

,38

5

$4

,44

2

$4

,64

7

$2,4

24

$2,2

97

$2,0

04

$1,

775

$1,

80

3

$2,0

18

$1,

70

2

$2,1

11

$2,5

97$3

,36

1



Manhattan Neighborhood InsightDOWNTOWN

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

$6,000

FINANCIAL DISTRICTLESEAST VILLAGEWEST VILLAGETRIBECANOHOSOHOGREENWICH VILLAGEFLATIRONGRAMERCY PARK

NUMBER OF UNITS

0

50

100

150

200

250

$2,6

78

207

153

88

4

177

10498

23

46

10

$2,7

20

$1,

80

3

$2,1

99

$1,

225

$1,

613

$3

,417

$2,7

00

$2,5

06

$,1

83

2

$5

,010

$2,1

73

$2,3

37

$2,8

70

$2,4

33

$1,

88

1


CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED

MANHATTAN—GROUND-UPVS.CONVERSIONS—AVG.PRICEPERSQ.FT.

MANHATTAN—ACTIVE,CONTRACTSIGNED,CLOSED—AVG.PRICEPERSQ.FT.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

$6,000

FINANCIAL DISTRICTLESEAST VILLAGEWEST VILLAGETRIBECANOHOSOHOGREENWICH VILLAGEFLATIRONGRAMERCY PARK

$2,4

15

$1,

80

3

$1,

94

5

$3

,14

8

$2,6

88

$2,7

93 $3

,69

0

$2,6

78

$2,5

34

$1,

78

7$2,8

84

$3

,35

8

$2,7

20

$3

,124

$2,9

30

$3

,10

1

$2,2

53

$2,6

00

$1,

48

8 $2,5

85

$2,5

48

$2,3

25

$1,

24

5

$1,

80

3

$1,

613

$1,

83

0


In Downtown Manhattan, new development activity was centered in TriBeCa,

the West Village, and FiDi. The highest Contract Signed pricing was achieved

in the West Village with an Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. of $3,101 in 2014.


Analysis by Unit TypeMANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN

MANHATTAN—MEDIANPRICEPERUNITTYPE

BROOKLYN—MEDIANPRICEPERUNITTYPE

MANHATTAN—TOTALUNITSBYBEDROOM

BROOKLYN—TOTALUNITSBYBEDROOM

0

$5M

$10M

$15M

$20M

5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO0

200

400

600

800

1,000

$79

0k

$1.

33

M

$1.

49

M

$1.

18M

$2.7

1M

$3

.49

M

$2.2

9M

$5

.63

M

$7.1

0M

$4

.88

M $8

.80

M

$9

.69

M

$9

.56

M

$11

.95

M

$16

.55

M

$17

.50

M

$8

00

k

NUMBER OF UNITS

677

126

905

636

267

84

ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS

$8

00

k$

45

6k $9

46

k

$8

55

k

$79

5k

124104

$6

02k

0

$500k

$1M

$1.5M

$2M

$2.5M

$3M

$3.5M

$4M

4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

NUMBER OF UNITS

ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS

17

2369

$1.

55

M

$1.

38

M

$1.

18M

$2.6

4M

$2.5

2M

$1.3

5M

$3

.50

M

$3

.63

M

$2.5

0M

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO

21 5

8

47

89

34

3

24

5

158 18

7

86 32

48

5

29

9

133

31

21

26

2

150

48


0

20

40

60

80

100

4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO

8 9

34

86

4

33

28

13

64

24

97

17

1


Two Bedroom units were the most prevalent unit type in Manhattan, while

One Bedrooms were most prevalent in Brooklyn. This reflects efficient building

in Brooklyn as well as the recent trend of larger unit types in the luxury segment

of the Manhattan market.


Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN

$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+

52%

8.4

%

8.7

%

7.5%10

.5%

12.9

%

$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+

22.3

%

3.4

%

4.3

%

16.2

%

29

.1%

31.6

%

20

.1%

$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+

30

%

7.6

% 11.0

%

10.9

%

17.2

%

23

.3%

$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+

22.3

%

0.5

%

1.0

%

7.7

%

39

.7%

39

.2%

11.9

%

$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+

22.3

%

4.9

%

8.8

%

20

.6%

14.3

%

29

.2%

$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+22.3

%0

.0%

0.0

%

0.0

% 6.9

%

69

.0%

24

.1%

39

.2%

Active new development listings in Manhattan priced above $5M comprise 52%

of all Active listings. While Brooklyn pricing is more approachable, there is a shift

to higher price points that can be seen in the progression from Closed, Contract

Signed, to Active listings. We expect this dynamic to continue in Brooklyn as

more units come to market in 2015 priced above $2M, and as units in contract

begin closing.

2014PRICEPOINTMANHATTAN — ACTIVE

2014PRICEPOINTBROOKLYN — ACTIVE

MANHATTAN — CONTRACT SIGNED

BROOKLYN — CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN — CLOSED

MANHATTAN — CLOSED


Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN

Currently, the largest amount of total inventory is concentrated in Downtown

Manhattan, specifically FiDi. In Brooklyn the highest total inventory is found in

Downtown Brooklyn and Williamsburg. The graphs below present total inventory

by neighborhood along with the corresponding percentage of units sold.

Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed

as either Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet

MANHATTANTOTALINVENTORY

BROOKLYNTOTALINVENTORY

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

FINANCIAL DISTRICT

LESEAST VILLAGE

WEST VILLAGE

TRIBECANOHOSOHOGREEN. VILLAGE

FLATIRONGRAM. PARK

HELL'S KITCHEN

WEST CHELSEA

CHELSEAMIDTOWN EAST

BN. ROW*

MIDTOWN WEST

UESUWSHARLEM0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100%

65

2

79.3%

51.3%

75%67.7%

73.2%

96.7%

28.6% 28%

62.6% 63.5%

168

174

20

56

4

39

6

92

14

1,0

85

29

113

474

1264

39

56

5

30

9

225

195

186

PERCENTAGE SOLD

29.7%

61.3%

42.1%

57.2%46.2%

23.6%

36.6%

58.9%

65.5%

TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

WILLIAMSBURGPARK SLOPEPROSPECT HEIGHTSGREENPOINTDUMBODOWNTOWN BROOKLYN

BOERUM HILL/COBBLE HILL

CROWN HEIGHTSCLINTON HILLCARROLL GARDENS

BROOKLYN HEIGHTS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100%

378

65

9

23

6

124

7

122

32

9

36

128

PERCENTAGE SOLD

TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD

6.6%

37.5%33.3%

14.8% 13%

36.3%

85.7%

10.8%

33.3%

15.3%

released to the market. Available Units is defined as new development units

that are either currently listed as Active or those not yet released to the market.

These numbers include units released prior to 2014, provided they are in a project

that has not sold out all sponsor units. This data provides a comprehensive look

at new development inventory by including unreleased units.

*Billionaire's Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS


Further Insight

Downtown Manhattan saw the most new development activity by volume in 2014. Lower median unit sizes in Brooklyn reflect the recent trend of large units in

the Manhattan luxury market and more efficient building in Brooklyn.

Typical market seasonality can be seen with fewer new development contracts

signed in the spring months than during fall and winter.

NEWDEVELOPMENTLISTINGSBYNEIGHBORHOOD MEDIANSIZE(SQ.FT.)BYUNITTYPE

CONTRACTSIGNEDBYMONTH

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

BKLYN**UPPER MANHATTAN

DOWNTOWNBN ROW*

MIDTOWN WEST

MIDTOWN EAST

UWSUES

62

32 55

36

38

324

36

117

42

20

0

112 15

3

66

65

4

131 19

4

120

37 62

50

7

51

29


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO

521

53

0

80

0 1,4

11 2,2

76

.5

3,3

10

4,3

11

78

3 1,15

3 1,6

67 2

,48

9

3,4

78

MANHATTAN BROOKLYN



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

DECEMBERNOVEMBER OCTOBERSEPTEMBERAUGUSTJULYJUNEMAYAPRILMARCHFEBRUARYJANUARY

150

63

75

74

88

152

101

2 5

124

22

152

58

151

33

128

36

100

1226

MANHATTAN BROOKLYN

MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN

Contact

445 Park Avenue, 12th Floor | New York, NY 10022

HPDMNY.com

212 521 5757

LAUNCHINGTHISQUARTER

51 Jay Street

DUMBO

51JaySt.com

15 Hubert Street

TriBeCa

15Hubert.com

Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Chief Market and Planning Analyst and Lisa Rae Castrigno, Director of Research.

The information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM’s prior consent.

For questions or comments regarding this report please contact [email protected]

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