NEW CANAAN DOWNTOWN MARKET DEMAND STUDY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Prepared for: The Town of New Canaan

Market Demand Study Committee

Prepared by: BFJ Planning, in collaboration

with Urbanomics

Date: December 30, 2011

Acknowledgements

Town Board of Selectmen Jeb Walker, First Selectman

Robert E. Mallozzi Sally T. Hines

Market Demand Study Committee

John Goodwin, Chairman Jarvis Cromwell Tucker Murphy Leslie Razook Kajsa Sheibley

Steve Kleppin, Town Planner, ex officio

BFJ Planning

Frank Fish, FAICP, Principal, Planning Susan Favate, AICP, PP, Associate

Joanna Todaro, Planner

Urbanomics Regina Armstrong, Principal Tina Lund, Senior Associate

Miriam Schiller, Focus Group and Survey Advisor

New Canaan Market Demand Study 12/30/11

New Canaan Market Demand Study 12/30/11

I. INTRODUCTION Downtown New Canaan provides a destination for shopping, dining and entertainment for the Town’s residents and visitors, as well as a center of community government and institutions. The downtown area contains a mix of retail, office, service, community and Town government uses, in roughly 1 million square feet of development in an 80-acre business district. One of the major recommendations of the Town of New Canaan’s Plan of Conservation and Development (2003) for the downtown area was to conduct a detailed study of the Town Center area to address current conditions and issues. The 2007 Downtown New Canaan Strategic Plan that came out of that recommendation further suggested that the Town conduct a detailed market analysis for the downtown area to identify the potential market demand for businesses by type. This recommended study was intended to set a baseline for targeted marketing efforts to retain existing commercial development and generate new, desirable and sustainable economic growth. The information from the study would help to identify the most desirable specific uses and activities for the downtown, and what regulatory changes and business outreach efforts may be needed to promote and attract such uses and activities. In response, the Town of New Canaan commissioned in early 2011 a commercial market study of the downtown area to evaluate the overall market feasibility of future downtown development by assessing the existing supply of commercial uses, quantifying the demand for new uses and evaluating potential market impacts of changes to parking capacity. The study also examines recent and proposed zoning changes by the Planning and Zoning Commission and the potential for increased in-town housing. In addition, the study assesses whether increased in-town housing would affect downtown business. This New Canaan Downtown Market Study embodies four key goals:

Determine how current commercial uses are meeting demand and assess likely impacts of changing conditions.

Evaluate how to best serve New Canaan residents and attract non-resident customers. Assess how downtown New Canaan can compete with other communities and Internet

retailers… While maintaining downtown New Canaan’s unique character and amenities.

To help guide the study, the Town appointed a six-member Market Demand Study Committee that met regularly with the consultant team throughout the planning process, and formulated a set of overarching questions to inform the study:

1. How do we enhance/maximize “Main and Elm”? (see pages 81-87) 2. How do we best utilize the Downtown outside of “Main and Elm”? (see pages 81-87) 3. What strategies should be undertaken by merchants and by the Town for our merchants

to be successful? (see pages 81-87) 4. What businesses do we encourage to enter New Canaan and how? (see pages 45-48,

51-59, 81-82, 89) 5. How does our Downtown thrive in the Internet age? (see pages 84-85) 6. How do we attract consumers from outside New Canaan? (see pages 81-87) 7. What is, and how do we market, the New Canaan brand?(see pages 86-87) 8. Are current rent levels a major challenge, and if yes, how do we address the issue? (see

pages 82-83) 9. How do we incorporate sustainability into our thinking and planning? (see pages 86-87)

New Canaan Market Demand Study 12/30/11

10. Is the growth trend in restaurants a positive or negative? How do we leverage or mitigate the trend? (see pages 37-48, 81-87)

11. What parking initiatives should be undertaken to support revitalization? (see pages 67-70, 83-84)

12. What planning and zoning initiatives should be undertaken to support revitalization? (see pages 70-78, 81-82)

13. Are the recommendations consistent with, and support, our community values (including the Plan of Conservation and Development)? (see pages 81-87)

14. What are the opportunities with, and the role of: potential senior housing downtown, the Metro-North terminus and mixed-use development? (see pages 67-80)

15. What traffic analysis should be performed in light of growth projections and recommendations? (see pages 67-70)

The New Canaan Downtown Market Demand Study reflects quantitative analysis of demographic projections, employment information and other “hard” data, as well as qualitative analysis based on input from a wide range of stakeholders. Community input was gathered through two public workshops; resident and merchant focus groups and intercept surveys; one-on-one interviews with merchants, commercial property owners, and representatives from the senior community and the Planning and Zoning Commission; and an extensive online opinion survey. The final study is divided into five major sections: a supply analysis looking at the current conditions and inventory of commercial uses; a demand analysis evaluating how that inventory is serving both New Canaan as well as a larger market area; a market impacts analysis looking at the potential effect on downtown businesses from several factors; a set of recommendations intended to capture the value of downtown New Canaan while preserving its inherent character and quality of life; and a discussion on implementation measures to ensure that the recommendations are effectively and appropriately realized. The full study is available from the Town Land Use Department. The following pages provide an executive summary of the study’s key findings.

New Canaan Downtown Market Demand Study

Executive Summary

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Project Purpose

Determine how current commercial uses are meeting demand and assess likely impacts of changing conditions.

Evaluate how to best serve New Canaan residents and attract non-resident customers.

Assess how downtown New Canaan can compete with other communities and Internet retailers...

…While maintaining downtown New Canaan’s unique character and amenities.

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Answering the “Big Questions”

How do we enhance and/or revitalize Main and Elm?

How do we best utilize the downtown area outside of Main and Elm?

What strategies should merchants and the Town use to increase success?

What businesses should we encourage to enter New Canaan and how?

How does our Downtown thrive in the Internet age?

How do we attract consumers from outside New Canaan?

What is, and how do we market, the “New Canaan” brand?

Are current rent levels a challenge, and if so, how do we address the issue?

Is the growth trend in restaurants positive or negative?

What parking initiatives should be undertaken to support revitalization?

Project Overview

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Resident & Merchant Focus Groups/Interviews: Key Issues

Key issues identified:

Residents

Town’s image/shopping aesthetic

Walkability & safety

Parking

Child/Teen-friendliness

Convenience shopping

Special events/downtown activities

Key issues identified:

Merchants

Retail vacancies

Parking

Balance of restaurants

Balance of chains vs. “mom & pops”

Rent levels

Special events/downtown activities

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Landlord Interviews

Key takeaways:

More supportive of chain stores (preferably regional chains)

More likely to see vacancies as reflective of larger economy or unique situation

Neutral on restaurants

Looking for more parking, possibly tiered or structured

Zoning and signage regulations need to be clear and consistent

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Senior Perspective

Senior Health Care & Housing Report

Staying Put New Canaan Interview: Key takeaways

Seniors are aware and proud of downtown New Canaan, but don’t shop there heavily

Major impediments to seniors’ shopping in downtown New Canaan: tight budgets, parking concerns

Seniors willing to drive to surrounding towns for deals, selection (especially grocery stores)

High senior interest in cultural destinations and restaurants

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Supply Analysis

Largest downtown use non-medical office (32%)

Retail use also significant (22%) but little of this is convenience retail

Overall vacancy rate 4% (7.5% for retail), down from 5% overall (13% for retail) in August

Vacancy concentration remains Main St./East Ave.

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Demand Analysis

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Gaps AnalysisKey takeaways:

Suggested uses for downtownGrocery/specialty food storesDesigner clothing and accessoriesRestaurantsHealth/personal careFlorists/other miscellaneousSports/youth-oriented

Other potential downtown activityOfficesHospitality, entertainment, culturalPersonal and community services

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New Canaan Retail/Restaurant

Sales

$185,815,489

Additional New Canaan Resident Retail/Restaurant

Expenditures

$417,965,926

New Canaan Retail Sales vs. Resident Spending Elsewhere

Gaps Analysis: Key Comparables

Further detailed analysis of Darien and Westport demographic comparables:

New Canaan is seeing more spending leakage than comps…

…But Westport and Darien contain key commercial corridors of Route 1, I-95.

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Online Survey

473 New Canaan residents (7% response rate)

54 respondents from surrounding towns

The objectives of the Consumer Demand Survey were to validate and quantify what was heard in focus group discussions and to explore the potential for new shops and facilities for our business area.

New Canaan Households

New Canaan Respondents

Householder 18 to 24 years: 0.6% 0.7%

Householder 25 to 34 years: 5.3% 3.3%

Householder 35 to 44 years: 20.5% 20.0%

Householder 45 to 54 years: 32.1% 36.4%

Householder 55 to 64 years: 16.8% 21.9%

Householder 65 to 74 years: 11.0% 10.4%

Householder 75 years and over: 13.7% 7.4%

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Key Survey Findings

Downtown’s greatest strength is its ambiance: very pleasant, friendly atmosphere, can find a place to relax/have a meal or meet friends

73% of residents have visited the downtown 20 times or more in the past 6 months

Downtown’s weakness: lack of variety in goods as well as price points

43% have been downtown 20 times or more in the past 6 months to go shopping (supermarket trips excluded)

Demand strongest for:Retail:

Supermarket/greengrocerWomen’s apparel and shoesKitchenware

OtherTheater/entertainment facility

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Market Impacts Analysis: Parking

Tiered parking at Locust Street lot Parking structure at Lumberyard lot

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Market Impacts Analysis: Recently Adopted/Potential Zoning Changes

Retail B zone: (increased building heights, FARs, flexibility to promote mixed use)

Minimal potential increase in downtown residential population

Prior proposals for Business A,B,C zones

Little likely effect on downtown residential population, some potential impact from more in-town employment

Incentive Housing Overlay Zone (IHOZ)

Most sites discussed not in downtown core

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Market Impacts Analysis: Senior Housing and Metro-North Terminus

Senior Housing

Town report recommends 100 independent senior housing units needed. Evaluating several locations within the downtown vicinity.

Overall positive impact on businesses if downtown senior housing is pursued.

Metro-North Terminus

Potential to capitalize on New Canaan’s rail terminus through joint marketing efforts.

Revisit earlier (2010) marketing effort with MTA “One-Day Getaways” program.

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Market Impacts Analysis: Summary

Potential Actions:

Increased parking capacity

Zoning changes

Senior housing

Capture of Metro-North terminus potential

Key Takeaway:

Each action alone would have minimal impact on downtown businesses, but together could have a more substantial effect.

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Major Regional Findings: Summary

New Canaan’s place in the region will remain unchanged.

Stamford to remain regional driver of job growth.

Town will not draw significantly more customers from other towns, nor should it lose any market share.

Opportunities to capture approximately 10% of current leakage through focus on key growth uses (e.g. grocery, apparel).

Overall growth in population will be stable (about 500 people between 2010-2020).

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Major Downtown Findings

Fairly good balance between real estate supply and demand.

Greatly expanded downtown not needed (compatible with Plan of Conservation & Development and a sustainable downtown)

Overall character of downtown is an attraction and should be maintained.

Parking should be expanded with at-grade and single-tiered parking at Locust Avenue, potential expansion of commuter parking at the Lumberyard, improved parking management strategies.

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Preliminary Recommendations: Town ActionsSuggested downtown uses:

Grocery and specialty food storesDesigner clothing/accessoriesYouth-oriented/sports storesRestaurants/InnMedical OfficesCultural Use/cinema at downtown theater

Potential zoning changes

5,000 sf cap on stores in downtown core to support small-scale, local businesses (up to current limit of 7,500 sf would still be allowable by special permit)Allow hotels/inns by special permit in downtownClarify definitions of some uses (e.g. grocery stores) to promote them as appropriate

Other

Explore potential to convert New Canaan Playhouse into film center (e.g. Jacob Burns Film Center in Pleasantville, NY)

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Preliminary Recommendations: ParkingParking

Increase capacity at Locust Avenue via construction of tiered parking structure for shoppers

Increase capacity at Lumberyard lot through construction of commuter parking garage

Improve parking management system (metering on Elm Street, better wayfinding/signage)

Increase attractiveness of municipal parking lots/structures for seniors and other motor-impaired visitors

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Preliminary Recommendations: Technology & Special Events

Encourage merchants to make full use of existing technology:

Attractive and functional websites

Social media (Facebook, Groupon, Living Social, Restaurant.com)

iPhone QR code scan tags

More downtown special events:

Involve charitable organizations, in-home artisans to cross-promote, drive trafficHold more regular downtown events, e.g. retail “late nights,” creation of temporary or seasonal entertainment spaces (ice rink, carousel)

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Preliminary Recommendations: Marketing Opportunities

Create package deals to co-market New Canaan attractions, market seasonally through Metro-North, Western Connecticut Visitors Bureau, etc.:

Glass House

Silvermine Arts Center

Waveny Park

New Canaan Nature Center

New Canaan Historical Society

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Preliminary Recommendations: Streetscape & Quality-of-Life Improvements

Capitalize on New Canaan’s charm and sense of place:

Create dumpster regulations to allow shared dumpsters in centralized off-street sites

Continue to maintain, improve sidewalks, benches, other street furniture

Explore creation of new public areas (pocket parks, seating areas)

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Implementation

Institutional entity should be created for carrying out recommendations.

Stress marketing (including co-marketing with other in-town assets), business attraction, events and financial support to supplement Chamber and Town efforts.

Possible venue:

Public-private Economic Development Commission (EDC) model staffed by consultant funded through Town appropriation/matching Chamber grant

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