New Business Models for the Augmentation of Public Transport Capacity

Amit Bhatt, Director - Integrated Transport, WRI India

INDIAPopulation: 1.2 Billion (2011 Census)

The second-most populated country in the world, population expected to

surpass China in 2030.

India occupies 2.4% of world’s area and supports 16.9% of the world’s

population

1020.00

1040.00

1060.00

1080.00

1100.00

1120.00

1140.00

1160.00

1180.00

1200.00

1220.00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Population in million

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Population Growth

Source: Census 2011

TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIA

Road

• Total Road Length: 48,65, 394 km

• NH: 76,818 km

• SH: 1,64,360

• Rural Roads: 19,38,220 km

• Urban Roads: 4,64,294 km

• Road Length increased 12 times between 1951 to 2012

• Road Length per 1000 sq. km: 1480 km

• Road Length per 1000 Population: 4.03 km

Rail

• 7500 Railway Stations

• 64, 600 km route

• 12000 and 7000 pass & freight trains a day

• 2.8 million tonnes of freight a day

• 25 million pass a day

• 3rd Largest Rail Network in the World

Air

• 132 Airports in India

• 32 International and 154 Domestic Airport

• 27 Proposed Airports

• 20 operational airlines in India

• 407.96 million international passenger traffic handled

• 121.51 million domestic passenger traffic handled in 2011-12

• 1.4 and 0.8 million tonnesof cargo handled in 2011-12

Water

• 12 Major Ports and 200 non-Major Ports

• 917 million tones of Cargo traffic Handled

• 21.5 million passenger traffic handled

• 6 National Waterways of length 4503 km serving 15 states

• 40% of cargo and 98% of passenger traffic handled by non-major ports.

Source: Infrastructure Statistics -2014 , MoSPI

SNAPSHOT OF SHARE OF TRANSPORT BY MODE IN INDIA

Source : CRISL | Railway | Aviation | CIRT

Year2012-13

Passenger KM in Billion

Passenger By Public Transport 5756

Traffic by air 108

Traffic by Railway 740

Traffic by Road 4908

% share of Road Transport 85%

Traffic by Buses 4173

% share of Bus 74%

Traffic by State transport buses 485

% share of STU buses 8%

Traffic by Private operated buses 3688

% share of Private buses 64%

Traffic by air2%

Traffic by Railway13%

Traffic by Road85%

Share of passengers by mode

2/3rd of

which is

Bus Transport

Commute Pattern

HOW INDIA COMMUTES TO WORK: CENSUS 2011

23%

13%

13%3%

3%

11%

3%

1%

30%

Commute Pattern

On foot

Bicycle

Moped/Scooter/MotorCycleCar/Jeep/Van

Tempo/Auto/Taxi

Bus

Train

Water Transport

Source: The Hindu, 2015, Census 2011

Commuting in Mega Cities

Source: The Hindu, 2015, Census 2011

Bus Transport Statistics

ESTIMATED OWNERSHIP PATTERN OF BUSES IN INDIA (2012)

Total Buses around 1.7 million

School & Employee Transport

53%

Public Sector / STU's

9%

Private Sector 38%

BUS TRANSPORTA state-wise comparison Of the population served by each SRTC bus: 2012-13

Over 250 million passengers

uses the government-owned

buses daily

Southern states outclass

northern states in availability of

buses

Bihar operates just one SRTU

bus per 2.5 lakh people.

Karnataka has one of the best

network of SRTU buses available

– one bus every 2700 persons

BUSES PER 1000 POPULATION IN SELECT COUNTRIES

Country Buses per 1000 population

Australia 4

Bangladesh 1

Brazil 4

China 2

France 1

Germany 1

India 1

Japan 2

Malaysia 3

Mexico 3

Russian Federation 0.5

South Africa 6

Thailand 8

UK 3

USA 2

Source: Review of the Performance of State Road Transport Undertakings (Passenger Services) for April, 2013 – March, 2014

India has less than one bus for

every 1000 citizens

India typically has 0.5-1 buses

per 1000 population

Countries like Mexico, Brazil,

China boast of more than 2

buses per 1000 population

This has an effect on waiting

time, number of citizens catered

to and headway

Less connectivity by buses gives

rise to innovative and often

unsafe IPT options

BUSES REQUIRED IN 2021

Population in 2021 1.35 BillionOffice of the Registrar General, India

Urban Population in 2021 530 MillionMoUD

Buses per lakh population in urban areas 60Min of Fin and ADB

Toolkit 2010

Number of buses required in urban areas 318,000Buses per lakh population for intercity travel 40Lee Schipper, 2008

Number of buses for intercity travel 326,800Total number of buses required in 2021 644,800

BUS TRANSPORT –

FROM HERE TO THERE

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY

Source: https://data.gov.in/resources/, MoSPI

Production of buses in

2009-10 is 46,000

Projected production of

buses in 2020 is 80,500

and that in 2030 is

1,13,000

But, India requires

more than 3 lakh

buses in cities alone

Growth in production of buses

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

1200001,13,000

80,500

TAXATION

Source: Calculation by WRI India based on MoRTH Data

Government bus operators are liable for as

many as 13 different taxes on their

assets and operations

Taxes contribute close to 20% of an

STU’s operating cost.In 2015, of all reporting STUs, ten STUs

declared a surplus before taxes, but only three

remained self-sufficient after clearing their

direct tax liabilities.

In 2014-15, BMTC reported a loss of INR 649

million, with a total tax liability of INR 3.096

billion from Motor Vehicle and fuel tax alone.

Benefits of Lowering Taxes for Public Agencies

REGULATION

Contract carriage vs Stage Carriage

Service innovation

Competition

Regulation needs to change

LIMITED FINANCING OF BUS TRANSPORT

Fare Box is main

source of revenue

Source: Bus Karo 2.0 – Case Studies from India, WRI

Non fare box sources

are less than 5%

National financing for

buses under JNNURM

Viability gap, especially

for operations is an issue

TECHNOLOGY HAS FOUND LIMITED IMPACT

Source: Bus Karo 2.0 – Case Studies from India, WRI

Need for deploying a system with

protocol sharing between the bus

manufacturers and system vendors

Setting up fully functional Traffic

Management Centres for coordinating

ITS activities

ITS in City Bus Services

TECHNICAL CAPACITY

There is negligible technical

expertise with SRTU’s across the

country

DTC, BEST does not have a

transport engineer or a planner in

the team

BEST employs non-transport

planners as planners

BMTC has DT Planning and DT

Engineering as a post

Source: Bus Karo 2.0 – Case Studies from India, WRI

About half of the buses sold in India

are manufactured by TATA Motors

Ashok Leyland and TATA Motors

together constitute about 75% of

the market share of buses

Mahindra, SML Isuzu, Volvo-

Eicher, etc constitute the non-public

buses (School, Office, Tour buses)

LIMITED COMPETITION

Tata Motors49%

Ashok Leyland23%

Volvo-Eicher12%

Mahindra6%

SML Isuzu9%

AB Volvo1%

Share of Sale of Buses

Source: Sharpe, 2015

Thank you

abhatt@wri.org