New base 752 special 21 december 2015

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 21 December 2015 - Issue No. 752 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE Siberian Surprise: Russian Oil Patch Just Keeps Pumping Bloomberg - Stephen Bierman In the fight for market share among the world’s oil producers this year, Russia wasn’t supposed to be a contender. But the world’s No. 3 producer has been pumping at the fastest pace since the collapse of the Soviet Union, adding to the flood on an already-swamped market and helping push prices to the lowest levels since 2009. Russia’s unexpected oil bounty this year is the result not of a new Kremlin campaign but of dozens of modest productivity improvements across the sprawling sector. Even pressured by plunging prices, as well as U.S. and European Union sanctions that cut access to much foreign financing and technology, Russian companies have managed to squeeze more crude out of some of the country’s oldest fields. They have also brought new projects on line, offsetting steady declines in its core producing region of West Siberia. With a rise of 0.5 percent in the first nine months of 2015, Russia hasn’t boosted production as much as its larger rivals, the U.S. (up 1.3 percent) and Saudi Arabia (up 5.8 percent), according to Citigroup Inc. But having ignored OPEC’s calls earlier this year to join efforts to support prices by pumping less, Russia is keeping up with the cartel.

Transcript of New base 752 special 21 december 2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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NewBase 21 December 2015 - Issue No. 752 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

Siberian Surprise: Russian Oil Patch Just Keeps Pumping Bloomberg - Stephen Bierman

In the fight for market share among the world’s oil producers this year, Russia wasn’t supposed to be a contender. But the world’s No. 3 producer has been pumping at the fastest pace since the collapse of the Soviet Union, adding to the flood on an already-swamped market and helping push prices to the lowest levels since 2009.

Russia’s unexpected oil bounty this year is the result not of a new Kremlin campaign but of dozens of modest productivity improvements across the sprawling sector. Even pressured by plunging prices, as well as U.S. and European Union sanctions that cut access to much foreign financing and technology, Russian companies have managed to squeeze more crude out of some of the country’s oldest fields. They have also brought new projects on line, offsetting steady declines in its core producing region of West Siberia.

With a rise of 0.5 percent in the first nine months of 2015, Russia hasn’t boosted production as much as its larger rivals, the U.S. (up 1.3 percent) and Saudi Arabia (up 5.8 percent), according to Citigroup Inc. But having ignored OPEC’s calls earlier this year to join efforts to support prices by pumping less, Russia is keeping up with the cartel.

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“I know of no one who had predicted that Russian production would rise in 2015, let alone to new record levels,” said Edward Morse, Citigroup’s global head of commodities research. As recently as April, not even the Russian government thought 2015 would break the record. Bashneft’s Boom

But Mikhail Stavskiy said he wasn’t surprised.

A veteran of the oilfields of Siberia who’s now head of upstream at Bashneft PJSC, he said his engineers have managed to find more oil in some of the fields where he worked summers as a student in the early 1980s. Bashneft, with some of the oldest reserves in Russia, has been the biggest single contributor to increased crude output this year, thanks largely to low-cost efforts to squeeze more oil out of regions that have been in production for decades. The results have helped make Bashneft’s shares among the best performers on Russia’s stock market in the last 12 months.

The other big boosts to Russian production this year have come from a few mid-sized new fields like those of Severenergia in the Arctic Yamal region. Co-owners Novatek OJSC and Gazpromneft PJSC invested in the $9.2 billion project back when oil prices were high. With most of the capital already committed, operating costs now are relatively low and output of gas condensate, a light and especially valuable form of crude, is up five-fold this year.

One side effect of falling oil prices -- the 52 percent plunge in the ruble over the last two years -- has helped Russian oil producers, chopping their costs in dollar terms since between 80 and 90 percent of their spending comes in rubles.

“I don’t know what the oil price would have to fall to for things to change dramatically,” Stavskiy said. “We’ve been through $9 a barrel and production continued, so if something like that happens, we know what to do.” Sustainability Doubts To be sure, few in the industry expect Russia to be able to sustain the current performance for more than a few years. Tax hikes and lack of financing have cut deeply into exploration drilling, which is down 21 percent this year, and handicap the larger new projects that are needed to replace the country’s older fields as they run dry.

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“There is, however, only so far such efficiency gains can go and we are probably near the peak of output today,” said Chris Weafer, a partner at consultants Macro Advisory.

In some parts of the Russian oil patch, low prices are already causing pain. At $40 a barrel, “half of our fields could be stopped. Heavy oil, low horizons, mature horizons are all unprofitable at a price of $40-45. We are waiting for better times,” Russneft OJSC Board Chairman Mikhail Gutseriev said in an interview on state television early this month.

Relatively high taxes on oil have actually sheltered the industry from much of the impact of the drop in prices. The government takes nearly on crude exports everything above $30-$40 a barrel, so companies don’t feel much impact until prices fall below that. Stavskiy’s Bashneft also benefited from some special tax breaks for older fields, although he said the savings wasn’t decisive for the company’s investment choices. “We’re up 3 percent since the beginning of the year at our mature fields in Bashkiria, the oldest of which has been in production for 83 years and already produced 1.7 billion tons (12.5 billion barrels) of oil,” Stavskiy said. Soviet Legacy Bashneft and other Russian companies working fields in the Volga River basin -- some of the first to be discovered in Russia early in the last century -- are benefiting from Soviet inefficiency, he said. “In Soviet times, the idea was: whatever we don’t produce will be left for our children.”

As a result, many old fields still have plenty of untouched oil. Bashneft, working with Schlumberger Ltd., set up a high-tech geology center in its headquarters near the fields, allowing engineers to model deposits in real time and drillers to target where the remaining oil is.

That’s allowed Bashneft to increase production at new wells by as much as 20 times compared to past efforts, Stavskiy said. Custom-designed pumps -- made locally and thus not affected by sanctions -- help draw oil out of narrow holes, he added.

Every month, the company ranks potential drilling and other projects by the minimum oil price needed to make them profitable. Only the above-water ones make the grade, a kind of flexibility and discipline typically associated with western companies. More Drilling. Across the industry, companies have boosted production drilling to increase output. While the country’s biggest west Siberian fields are showing declines, smaller new projects have more than offset them this year.

Gainers include Irkutsk Oil Co. in Siberia and Exxon Mobil Corp.-led Sakhalin-1 in the Sea of Okhotsk. In the Arctic, Novatek started production at the Yarudeyskoye oil field this month. The field will “rapidly reach” planned output of about 70,000 barrels a day, the company said early this month.

Though only about 0.7 percent of total Russian oil output, that gain is likely to be enough to keep the record pace going, said Alexander Nazarov, an oil and gas analyst at Gazprombank. “We may finish the year with another high,” he said.

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Saudi Crude Exports Rose in October to Most in Four Months Bloomberg - Bruce Stanley

Saudi Arabia boosted crude exports in October to the highest level in four months, as the world’s biggest oil exporter added barrels to a worldwide supply glut that has contributed to a slump in prices.

Saudi shipments rose to 7.364 million barrels a day in the month from 7.111 million in September, according to the latest figures from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative. The monthly exports were the most since June and 7 percent higher than in October 2014, the data released on Sunday showed. JODI is an industry group supervised by the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum.

Saudi Arabia produced 10.28 million barrels a day in October, up from 10.23 million in September, the JODI figures showed.

Saudi Arabia led OPEC to decide on Dec. 4 to abandon the group’s limits on output amid efforts to squeeze higher-cost producers such as Russia and U.S. shale drillers out of the market. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had set a production target almost without

interruption since 1982, though member countries often ignored and pumped well above it. The oversupply has pushed the price of benchmark Brent crude to almost a seven-year low and triggered the worst slump in the energy industry since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Brent for February settlement dropped 18 cents, or 0.5 percent, on Friday to $36.88 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The crude grade has tumbled 36 percent this year.

Saudi Arabia pumped 10.33 million barrels a day in November, exceeding 10 million barrels in daily output for the ninth consecutive month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Saudis have stuck to their one-year-old view that any output cuts won’t succeed in supporting prices unless big producers outside OPEC, including Russia and Mexico, also participate.

Crude exports fell in October from Iraq and Kuwait, OPEC’s second- and fourth-biggest producers, respectively, according to JODI. Iraq shipped 2.708 million barrels a day, down from 3.052 million barrels a day in September for the country’s fourth consecutive monthly decline, the data showed. Kuwait’s exports dropped to 1.905 million barrels a day in October from 2.008 million in the previous month, JODI said.

Iran, the fifth-biggest supplier in OPEC, exported 1.395 million barrels a day of crude in October, a marginal increase from 1.39 million in September, JODI figures showed.

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GE Oil & Gas wins PDO compressor supply deals Oman Observer

By Business Reporter — MUSCAT: Dec 20: GE Oil & Gas has won two contracts from Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) for the supply, testing, installation and commissioning of a fleet of electric motor driven centrifugal compressors to be deployed across PDO’s Saih Nihayda

Depletion Compression Phase II, Kawther Depletion Compression Phase II, Yibal Khuff Depletion, Burhaan West and Fahud Gaslift Compression projects. The contract also covers the aftermarket services for these new compressors as well as the existing GE compressor fleet. The contracts were signed at the recent Business Opportunities Forum held under the auspices of His Highness Sayyid Haitham bin Tareq al Said, and organised by the Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry to promote the efforts and programmes of the private sector in the field of In-Country Value creation. In addition, GE Oil & Gas also signed an agreement with PDO to extend training and development support for Omani nationals over the next 10 years, underlining its

commitment to localisation and the development of human capital in Oman. PDO Managing Director Raoul Restucci said: “We are making significant investments in strengthening our infrastructure that will enhance our productivity and help create new jobs for Omani nationals. In addition, we are focusing on strengthening local supply chain and maintenance capabilities that support Omani talent development. The contracts with GE Oil & Gas, a long-term partner of PDO, will add significant value to the national economy.” Rami Qasem, President & CEO, GE Oil & Gas Middle East, North Africa and Turkey, said: “Oman is one of the strategic growth hubs for GE Oil & Gas in the Middle East where we have achieved over 90 per cent Omanisation. The new contracts build on our commitment to deliver cutting edge technology, support localised innovation and promote talent development in Oman — a key element of how GE does business in the region.” As Oman focuses on projects to enhance oil and gas production, GE Oil & Gas is investing in its partnership with PDO by offering advanced technology and local services capability in-country. GE Oil & Gas has also rolled out dedicated training programmes for Omani nationals at the Florence Oil & Gas University, a proof-point of ongoing support of Omanisation and human capital development. GE has also acquired land in Nizwa to develop a workshop for local repairs and services to strengthen its local capabilities.

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Qatar: RasGas awards Chiyoda Almana long-term EPCm services contract Gulf times

Chiyoda Almana Engineering LLC (Chiyoda Almana), a leading engineering and construction contractor in Qatar, has been awarded the long-term engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCm) services contract by RasGas.

Chiyoda Almana will provide EPCm services required for projects that support the operations of RasGas onshore and offshore facilities. The five-year contract will cover small to medium-sized projects for a total of seven liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants and three large-sized gas

processing plants, helium plants and other facilities operated by RasGas at Ras Laffan.

At the contract signing ceremony, RasGas chief executive officer Hamad Mubarak al-Muhannadi said, “With the signing of this new five-year term contract, we hope to ensure continued efficiency in completing ongoing projects, maintaining the highest safety standards and drawing on the benefits of Chiyoda Almana’s familiarity with our operating assets

and brownfield execution capability developed during the previous EPCm contract.

“As a world-class supplier of energy, RasGas is committed to deliver the best results in operational excellence. This commitment to quality has also been reflected in selecting the most capable contractors and establishing pre-eminent partnerships, which have made a significant contribution towards adding values to our work culture by fulfilling cost and performance targets,” he added.

Mamoru Nakano, operation director (Gas & LNG Project Operations 1) and senior vice-president, Chiyoda Corporation, said: “Chiyoda Almana has a strong business relationship with RasGas, and we are so honoured to be awarded the RasGas long term EPCm services contract, which will definitely strengthen these business ties.

“We are looking forward to complete the newly awarded contract in the same manner as for previously completed long term EPCm contract and with the priority in terms of safety performance, quality of our personnel and our record of reliable delivery.”

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Afghanstan: President Discusses TAPI Project With Tribal Leaders TOLO news + NewBase ( images )

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Sunday talked about the importance of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) to a gathering of tribal elders, reported TOLOnews. While addressing the

gathering Ghani said, “The country supports regional and international projects so as to ensure positive change. More positive changes will arrive in the months ahead."

The much delayed TAPI gas pipeline project was formally inaugurated last Sunday, December 13, 2015. The ground breaking ceremony, which was held in Mary in the southeastern part of Turkmenistan, was attended by Afghan President Ashraf Ghani along with Turkmenistan President

Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Indian Vice President Muhammad Hamid Ansari.

He said that besides TAPI being of enormous economic importance, the project is also a step forward to change Afghanistan into an economic hub in the region, TOLOnews reported.

Experts believe that for the project to be successful, security of the pipeline would be very important, especially in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Islamabad has already indicated that it is willing to talk to Taliban about the project.

Nearly 200 kilometers of the pipeline will pass through the territory of Turkmenistan, 735 kilometers through Afghanistan, 800 kilometers through

Pakistan and will reach Fazilka in India. The pipeline will export up to 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India over 30 years.

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US:Removal of US crude export ban to secure new investments for shale Gulf News - Alexander Cornwell, Staff Reporter

United States shale oil is likely to find new appetite from investors now that the government is set to lift a four-decade ban on oil exports.

Shale producers have increasingly come under pressure this year as low oil prices turned their once highly profitable but capital intensive operations into loss-making ventures. The number of operational rigs in the US have fallen and interest in investment in the shale oil industry, which has a higher operational cost than traditional oil drilling operations, dropped.

But on December 16, congressional leaders in the US agreed to lift the ban, which dates back to the 1970s, in a step that will to give the industry opportunities for new, long-term investment.

“Lifting the ban removes a significant threat to shale oil company investment down the road, by allowing production companies to sell their crude at competitive prices,” Bob McNally, a former energy adviser to the George W. Bush administration, told Gulf News.

Shwan Zulal, an associate fellow at Kings College in London and director of Carduchi Consulting, told Gulf News it is “great news” for shale producers.

Viability

US shale boomed over the past seven and half years, largely in the Midwest state of North Dakota, until oil prices fell to below $60 (Dh220) a barrel in January this year from a high of $115 a barrel in June 2014.

The oil price crash raised questions over the viability of US shale, which helped the US to become the world’s third largest producer after Russia and Saudi Arabia.

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In January 2015, North Dakota Congressman Kevin Cramer, who favours lifting the ban, told Gulf News the longer oil stayed low, the more likely the ban will be lifted.

“We are not going to be the price taker anymore, we’re going to be the price maker,” he said at the time.

Lifting the prohibition on exports “will stop a big differential opening up between US and international prices,” Robin Mills, head of research at Manaar Energy in Dubai, told Gulf News.

“Longer term it will help support US shale production if global prices recover somewhat.”

US crude West Texas Intermediate and global benchmark Brent crude are trading at near parity and on Friday US crude traded at $34.55 a barrel on Friday, while Brent traded at $36.88 a barrel.

Saudi strategy

On December 15, the International Monetary Fund Middle East Director Massood Ahmad said the fund sees oil slowly climbing over the next five years to $60 a barrel in 2020.

Lifting the ban is not going to have a “big impact” on prices, Mills said, and so will mean little for Saudi Arabia’s strategy of pursuing market share over high prices. Asian markets, buyers of Middle East oil, are also unlikely to start buying US crude given the near parity with Brent and high transport costs to ship from the US.

For the shale producers, buyers are most likely to be “European, Caribbean and South American; simple refiners optimised to run light crude,” McNally said.

Exports to Mexico and Canada, which were permitted under the ban, are also likely to increase by some degree.

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NewBase 21 December - 2015 Khaled Al Awadi

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Brent crude at 2008 low as market rout heads into Christmas Reuters + Newbase

Brent crude prices fell on Monday to their lowest since 2008 on renewed worries over a global oil glut, with production around the world remaining at or near record highs and new supplies looming from Iran and the United States.

Brent futures fell as low as $36.32 per barrel in overnight trading around 0000 GMT, the weakest since 2008, before edging back to $36.49 per barrel by 0203 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 20 cents at $34.53 per barrel and close to last Friday's 2015 lows. Both benchmarks are down more than two-thirds since mid-2014 when the rout began.

Analysts said a strong dollar following last week's U.S. interest rate hike, which makes oil consumption more expensive for countries using different currencies, as well as a renewed increase in U.S. oil rig counts were weighing on crude prices.

Oil price special

coverage

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"The U.S. oil rig count bounced back this week, up by 17 (to 541), putting an end to four consecutive weekly declines," Goldman Sachs said.

"The increase in rig count even in a low crude oil price environment suggests shale producers are committed to maintaining production levels. The resilient production data reflect rising U.S. crude stockpiles, which have surged to 491 million barrels, the most for this time of year since 1930," ANZ bank said.

The U.S. glut adds to global oversupply as the main producers, including Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), pump hundreds of thousands of crude every day in excess of demand.

Russian production has surpassed 10 million barrels per day (bpd), its highest since the collapse of the Soviet Union while OPEC output also remains near record levels above 31.5 million bpd.

Adding to the existing glut is that new oil is likely to become available soon, with Iran hoping to ramp up sales in early 2016 once sanctions against Tehran are lifted.

Iran will export most of its enriched uranium to Russia in coming days as it rushes to implement a nuclear deal and secure relief from international sanctions, Tehran's nuclear chief was quoted as saying over the weekend.

This comes only days after the U.S. voted to lift a 40-year-old ban on crude exports which could see some of its excess production dumped on the global market.

On the demand side, there are also bearish factors as most of the northern hemisphere is experiencing an unusually mild start to the winter due in part to the El Nino weather phenomenon, denting heating oil demand.

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Boom-bust cycle jerks reins out of Opec’s hands The National + Robin Mills

From a low of US$9.10 per barrel in late 1998, oil prices escalated almost unrelentingly to $144 in July 2008, crashed below $34 in December in the financial crisis, rebounded to $128 in March 2012 on Middle East geopolitical turmoil and have now slumped again to around $36.

During this period, Opec was allegedly managing the market. If this is stability, what would instability look like?

A provocative new paper by Robert McNally of Columbia University argues that Opec’s market management role did not end with the recent rise of US shale oil. He concludes that the producers’ organisation has not effectively stabilised prices since 2004, except for a brief period during the financial crisis.

The thesis draws together strands that have become increasingly clear. Saudi Arabia does not have enough spare capacity to cap rising prices, in the event of disruption or unexpected demand growth. And it has no intention of cutting its own production unilaterally (or with some limited assistance from GCC allies), ceding market share to geopolitical rivals or non-Opec competitors.

It is not possible for prices to be high and stable, except during temporary periods when disruptions are coincidentally matched by new supply, as in 2012 to the middle of last year. High oil prices attract too much competition – within Opec, outside Opec and from efforts to reduce oil dependency and improve efficiency. Saudi proclamations in September last year that “the high cost of producing shale oil … means the price of oil will not go to less than $90” now appear wildly optimistic.

It is possible for prices to be low and stable, as during the post-war period up to 1970, when US regulators managed their domestic market and the international oil companies’ “Seven Sisters” restrained low-cost output in the Middle East.

Prices were again low and fairly stable from 1986 to 1998, when vast Opec spare capacity prevented any rally. Equilibrium was always vulnerable to any race by a low-cost producer for market share, but sanctions and mismanagement in Iraq and Iran meant that only Venezuela tried this strategy – with ruinous economic and political consequences.

Mr McNally now thinks we are back in the pre-war era of “boom and bust”, with wild oscillations in price. That is possible, and over the next few years, we could sketch out three illustrative scenarios.

In the first, the market will take a couple of years to digest the current swelling inventories and the return of Iran. After that, the halt in investments in long lead-time, high-cost areas such as oil sands and deepwater (and the Arctic, although its importance is exaggerated), the travails of Iraq and the financial damage inflicted on shale oil companies would constrain output, and prices would reascend towards the uplands of $100 per barrel.

In the second case, a rise in prices would quickly revive the shale oil companies, leading to another surge in North American production. Volatility would remain, but the cycles would be compressed, on the order of a year or less, perhaps superimposed on the industry’s traditional decadal rhythm. Prices would fluctuate around the cost of the marginal shale producer – $65 per barrel or so.

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NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 21 Dec.. 2015

What Just Happened in Solar Is a Bigger Deal Than Oil Exports: $73 billion in new iBloomberg - Tom Randall

The clean-energy boom is about to be transformed. In a surprise move, U.S. lawmakers agreed to extend tax credits for solar and wind for another five years. This will give an unprecedented boost to the industry and change the course of deployment in the U.S.

The extension will add an extra 20 gigawatts of solar power—more than every panel ever installed in the U.S. prior to 2015, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). The U.S. was already one of the world's biggest clean-energy investors. This deal is like adding another America of solar power into the mix.

The wind credit will contribute another 19 gigawatts over five years. Combined, the extensions will spur more than $73 billion of investment and supply enough electricity to power 8 million U.S. homes, according to BNEF.

"This is massive," said Ethan Zindler, head of U.S. policy analysis at BNEF. In the short term, the deal will speed up the shift from fossil fuels more than the global climate deal struck this month in Paris and more than Barack Obama's Clean Power Plan that regulates coal plants, Zindler said.

Data Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

This is exactly the sort of bridge the industry needed. The costs of installing wind and solar power have dropped precipitously—by more than 90 percent since the original tax credits took effect—but in most places coal and natural gas are still cheaper than unsubsidized renewables. By the time the new tax credit expires, solar and wind will be the cheapest forms of new electricity in many states across the U.S.

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The tax credits, valued at about $25 billion over five years, will drive $38 billion of investment in solar and $35 billion in wind through 2021, according to BNEF. The scale of the new projects will help push costs down further and will stimulate new investment that lasts beyond the extension of the credits.

Few people in the industry expected a five-year extension. Stocks soared. SolarCity, the biggest rooftop installer, surged 34 percent yesterday. SunEdison, the largest renewable-energy developer, climbed 25 percent, and panelmaker SunPower increased 14 percent.

Congress is expected to vote by the end of this week on the tax credits as part of a broader budget deal that also lifts the 40-year-old ban on U.S. oil exports. Oil producers have lobbied for years to lift the ban, but it isn't likely to significantly affect either consumption of oil or deployment of renewables. Leaders from both parties reached an agreement on the bill late Tuesday.

The 30 percent solar tax credit was set to expire next year and will now extend through 2019 before tapering to 10 percent in 2022. The wind credit had expired at the end of 2014, and the extension will be retroactively applied from the start of 2015 through 2019, declining in value each year.

Wind power has had an especially tumultuous relationship with U.S. lawmakers, who have kept the industry's credits alive through a disruptive ping-pong game of short-term extensions every year or two. "You open manufacturing plants and then you close them. And then you open them and you close them," BNEF's Zindler said. "It's economically inefficient. This will give them a good five-year line of sight on what the market will look like, and that's really important."

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Innovation seen key to resilience for energy industry next year The energy industry in GCC and elsewhere must commit to innovation in order to successfully navigate a period of significant change and uncertainty in 2016, according to Booz Allen Hamilton.

Amid falling oil prices and new models of distributed power, oil producers and utilities need to adapt and react to market changes to secure the viability of their businesses as the market tightens.

The study, conducted in collaboration with IDC, also highlights the importance of cyber security to the energy industry, noting that it expects up to 75% of industry players to have a full risk-based cybersecurity strategy in place by 2019.

Booz Allen Hamilton says that organisations will need to identify and manage threats well before they have direct operational effects.

The hydrocarbon industry is a critical one in the GCC

(Gulf Cooperation Council), a region that accounts for nearly 40% of the world’s oil production.

According to the International Monetary Fund estimates, the market downturn will result in a $287bn loss in oil exports or around 21% of the combined GDP for GCC suppliers, in 2015.

“The global oil industry is entering a critical period as it adjusts to the reality of sustained low oil prices and no foreseeable return to a $100 dollar barrel of oil,” said Dr Walid Fayad, executive vice president, Booz Allen Hamilton MENA. “As a region dependent on revenues from oil, this new reality demands a response from GCC producers and exporters to create more resilient businesses able to withstand the market volatility and continue to deliver on major domestic social and infrastructure projects.”

Beyond driving down the net cost of oil production, the adoption and integration of technology can also disrupt energy across the value chain, positively impacting utilities and power generators in the region.

“Electricity demand growth of more than 8% a year presents the GCC with an energy security challenge that threatens the continued economic development of the region,” said Dr Adham Sleiman, vice-president, Booz Allen Hamilton MENA. “Technology will be critical to installing and connecting the grid capacity the region requires whilst making the electricity system smarter, more efficient and more secure.”

The report highlights five key trends for 2016. They are listed below.

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Cybersecurity spending is set to rise, as threats will need to be identified and managed well before they have a direct operational effect, replacing the traditional compliance-oriented approach to cybersecurity.

There will be a spike in energy demand and associated infrastructure, mainly driven by emerging economies. Innovation will rise correspondingly to meet the unique needs of these markets. The International Energy Agency reports that emerging economies will account for more than 90% of net energy demand growth by 2035.

Customer demand for information, service and control will drive digital transformation to touch every aspect of the industry (e.g. information sharing, outage notification, bill payment, sale of energy products and services, in connected-homes).

IDC Energy Insights reports that by 2018, 70% of utilities will have launched major digital transformation initiatives.

Advanced analytics will be deployed to drive down overhead costs. The increasing use of Big Data will create an industry where leadership decisions are more and more data-driven. In 2016, a majority of CIOs will push innovation funding to minimise operational costs.

Companies will automate more and more manual processes to reduce effort, streamline functions, and improve results. The demand for next generation IT skills is rising faster than the talent pool in most companies, meaning that the industry will see more training and recruiting over the year.

In 2016, 70% of utilities companies will look externally to source talent for advanced analytics, cognitive systems, cloud and cybersecurity.

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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &

regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

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