New base 479 special 16 november 2014

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NewBase 16 November 2014 - Issue No. 479 Khaled Al Awadi

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Oil Prices keep falling to four-year low & below Brent crude oil fell to a four-year low below $77.70 a barrel on Thursday after Chinese data showed a slowdown in activity last month in the world’s top energy consumer and Saudi Arabia was silent about a possible cut in production.

China’s economy lost momentum in October, with factory growth dipping and investment growth hitting a near 13-year low, reinforcing expectations of a slower increase in fuel demand.

Developing economies had been a major support for oil over the past decade, but demand is now failing to keep up with increasing supply from North American shale production.

Brent crude for December, which expires on Thursday, was down by $1.51 at $78.87 a barrel by 1314 GMT after falling to an intraday low of $78.71, its lowest since September 2010. US light crude was down 40 cents at $76.78 a barrel.

Opec members meet in Vienna on Nov. 27, when they will consider how to respond to a 30 per cent fall in oil prices over the past five months. Some have said they want a cut in output.

But the most powerful Opec member, Saudi Arabia, has refrained from backing a cut, prompting speculation that it is more concerned with keeping market share than supporting prices.

“We do not set the oil price. The market sets the prices,” Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Wednesday. Swiss oil market consultant Olivier Jakob said Saudi Arabia might be willing to let prices fall as low as $75 a barrel before acting to stabilise the market.




New Electricity and water price increase in Abu Dhabi The National + NewBase ABU DHABI // The energy and water price hikes that will come into effect in Abu Dhabi next year should lead to a reduction in consumption and an increase in efficiency, experts said yesterday.

The Regulation and Supervision Bureau announced the tariff increase on Wednesday, in collaboration with Abu Dhabi Distribution Company and Al Ain Distribution Company. It will come into effect on January 1 2015 .

“Overall, it is a really positive development,” said Alice Cowman, chief executive of the Clean Energy Business Council (CEBC). “It is part of a general move towards sustainability. Jesus Gutierrez, co-managing director of

Dubai energy efficiency company Smart4Power, said the initiative would send the appropriate signal to consumers.

“It will help to reduce the Emirates’ carbon footprint and reduce the big burden that subsidies are posing in the Government’s finances,” he said The new tariff system has different rates, depending on consumption, with those consuming more energy and water charged more. Expatriates will face the biggest increases.

The current rate of Dh2.2 per 1,000 litres will more than double to Dh5.95 for expatriates living in flats who consume up to 700 litres a day. A higher, still unannounced tariff will be charged above that threshold Expatriates living in villas will be charged Dh5.95 per 1,000 litres for consumption of up to 5,000 litres per day.

While Emiratis in Abu Dhabi currently get their water free, from January they will be charged Dh1.7 per 1,000 litres if they live in apartments and consume up to 700 litres, with higher consumption charged at Dh1.89 per 1,000 litres.

Emiratis living in villas will be charged the lower tariff for consumption of up to 7,000 litres per day and the higher one for anything above that allocation Electricity prices for expatriates will increase from 15 fils per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to 21 fils per kWh for those with a daily consumption of up to 20kWh, regardless of whether they live in a flat or villa.

Emiratis currently pay 5 fils per kWh and will continue to pay the same if they live in an apartment and use no more than 30kWh, or in a villa and use no more than 400kWh. Those using more will be charged 5.5 fils per kWh.

“Experience from similar initiatives in other parts of the world shows that measures to increase water and electricity prices have had an immediate impact in overall consumption,” he said. “Other initiatives, like campaigns to raise awareness, are very important too, but the end driver is people’s pockets.”

While the full impact of the new rates will not be clear until the charges in the upper end of the tariff are announced, Mr Gutierrez said two factors would lead to a more efficient use of resources.

“Higher utility bills will change consumers’ behaviour, spurring them to make a more rational use of electricity and water: turning off lights, setting AC temperature to 24°C,” he said “It will also




facilitate the introduction of energy-efficiency measures that before were not interesting for consumers since the cost savings were negligible.”

Ms Cowman said she expected that villa dwellers, especially expatriates, would probably be the most keen to save because they were facing the highest increases In addition, studies on water usage carried out in the country showed rates in apartments were comparable with the rest of the world, and much lower than those in villas.

Last year a CEBC study revealed that Abu Dhabi had the cheapest water tariffs in the country, and would continue to remain behind Dubai in terms of price, even with the increase As for electricity, Abu Dhabi would still be the cheapest in the country after the increases – three times cheaper than the rates paid by Federal Electricity & Water Authority customers, who pay 40 fils per kWh.

The new tariff structure is explained below. From 1 January 2015,




Mubadala looks at projects which are resilient to lower oil prices + NewBase

Abu Dhabi: Mubadala Petroleum are looking at deploying capital in projects which are resilient to lower oil prices, according to the company’s outgoing Chief Executive Officer Maurizio La Noce.

“We are looking at projects which could be resilient if the prices go down to $70 (Dh257) or even $60. Manora (oil field) in Thailand is a great example. This is a great project even at lower prices. It is phenomenally efficient,” La Noce

told Gulf News on the sidelines of last week’s Abu Dhabi International Petroleum and Exhibition.

Global oil prices have been plunging in the last few months creating jitters in the market. From a peak of $115 (Dh422) a barrel in June, oil price fell to less than $82 on Thursday. Analysts have cited various reasons for the price slide including weak demand, over supply and boom in the production of shale gas in the US.

“There are so many factors that contribute to the direction of oil prices. There are economic reasons as well as political reasons. One of the simplest things to explain is exchange rates.

When the dollar goes strong, oil prices go down as oil prices are pegged to the dollar,” he told Gulf News.

He said there could be other reasons like the disappointing performance of economies in South East Asia, China and India. “On the other side, United States economy is booming and at the same time Europe is little bit in a depressing mode.”

There could be political reasons too like what is happening in Syria, Libya, Palestine-Israel conflict, Iran nuclear talks and Russia-Ukraine conflict. Iran, which is battling sanctions over the nuclear issue with Western countries is to reach an agreement before November 24 but the recent talks in Oman have not yielded any results.

Unconventional production

La Noce said it is unclear how negative or positive these current developments have impacted the oil prices. “There is supply and demand. Demand is not rising and supply is strongly driven by the unconventional production in the United States. In this scenario, what Opec (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is going to do will be important?”

Opec countries are due to meet in Vienna at the end of the month to make a decision whether to cut oil production or not. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have said they will not reduce their output to increase the price.

“In the past Opec used to cut and oil prices went up. Now if they cut, they will lose the market share.” According to La Noce, an oil correction is good for the industry as companies become more efficient and take up projects that can withstand the price plunge.

The oil and gas firm announced this week that the production has begun at Manora oil field in the Northern Gulf of Thailand. Production is expected to reach a peak rate of approximately 15,000




barrels per day when the production wells get completed. The company owns two more oil fields in Thailand.

The company also has the Ruby field in Indonesia, a $350 million net investment. In Manora, the company has 60 per cent share, about $200 million, Nong Yao oil is a $200 million development project of which the company has 70 per cent share. The company has made half a billion dollar capital in the development in the last two years.

Partnerships

Mubadala Petroleum said that Malaysia is going to be biggest investment in South East Asia. The company is working closely with Shell and Petronas on the gas project. The company said that Mexico is too on their radar but plans are in the early stage.

“We are in discussion with dozen or more companies. We partnered with Shell in Malaysia, we partnered with Total in Indonesia, we have discussions with BP and Oxy [Occidental petroleum] is our traditional partner.” La Noce, a 12-year veteran of Mubadala, will pave way for Mussabeh Al Kaabi, who has been appointed as a chief executive officer last month.

The company manages assets and operations spanning 12 countries with a primary geographic focus on the Middle East, Africa, Central and Southeast Asia. Working interest production in 2013 was approximately 387,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.




Big powers block Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline plans Syed Fazl-e-Haider ( The National ) + NewBase

Iran has energy. Its neighbour Pakistan wants energy. Their efforts to work out a deal have for years been stymied by foreign powers, but now they are trying a new approach. Last month, Pakistan proposed an alternative gas import plan from Iran amid the lingering threat of sanctions from the United States against the $7.5 billion Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project.

The new plan involves conversion of natural gas into liquefied natural gas (LNG) and use of Oman’s LNG terminal to import gas from Iran. Pakistan’s oil minister, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, met Iranian authorities in Tehran late last month and offered an LNG import plan that would ultimately shelve the IP gas pipeline project.

Under the new plan, Iran would convert natural gas into LNG then export it to Pakistan by using the terminal facility of Oman, which has already signed a deal with Iran for the purchase of about $60bn worth of natural gas over the next 25 years.

An LNG terminal has also been proposed to be set up at Gwadar port in south-western Balochistan province bordering Iran, and an LNG pipeline from Gwadar would be laid to Nawabshah town in southern Sindh province. The Gwadar-Nawabshah pipeline would also be extended by 71 kilometres towards the Iranian border for transportation of gas under the IP pipeline project, provided the US sanctions against Iran are lifted.

The much-delayed IP gas pipeline project has virtually died after Pakistan failed to commission it by the scheduled time period owing to threats of possible sanctions by the US. Under the IP




contract, Pakistan is bound to pay a penalty if it fails to complete the construction of its portion of the pipeline by December 31. Iran has already completed the section of pipeline on its territory.

Formal inauguration of the IP pipeline project by Islamabad and Tehran last year raised eyebrows in Washington and the US state department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland told reporters at the time: “We have also been working on alternative projects. We’ve heard this pipeline announced 10 to 15 times before. If this [IP pipeline] project goes forward we have serious concerns that sanctions will be triggered.”

The alternative project that the US favours for Pakistan is the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (Tapi) gas pipeline. Although Islamabad believes that the alternative LNG pipeline is a separate project having no links with the IP pipeline, the US wants Pakistan to abandon the IP project and go ahead with the Tapi pipeline.

The IP pipeline is strongly opposed by the US, while it is supported by Russia and China. Similarly, the US-backed Tapi pipeline is opposed by Russia. India had to withdraw from the Iran pipeline project in 2009 under US pressure. The international financial institutions have been reluctant to sanction funds for Pakistan for the IP project because of sanctions on Iran. The US did not exempt the IP project from the sanctions despite Iran’s nuclear deal with western nations in Geneva last year.

What seems behind the virtual demise of the strategic IP pipeline? It was geopolitics and corporate interests that ultimately halted this project. Turkmenistan’s Daulatabad fields are estimated to have gas reserves of 159 trillion cubic feet. The US energy giant Unocal has been active to lead efforts to corner the Caspian

wealth through a safer and shorter route from Central Asia to the world markets. Hence, the US always supported the Tapi pipeline traversing Afghan territory. But the volatile security situation in war-torn Afghanistan has so far ensured the failure of the project.

On the other hand, Russia opposed the construction of the Tapi pipeline because it wants Turkmenistan’s gas to be firmly under its control. Turkmenistan currently ships the bulk of its gas exports to Ukraine via a pipeline controlled by the Russian gas giant Gazprom. Moscow, however, fully backed the construction of the IP pipeline to meet the energy needs of south and west Asia.

The IP pipeline could prove an energy lifeline for Pakistan because it would initially transfer 30 million cubic metres of gas per day. The country currently faces an energy emergency. There are prolonged electricity blackouts from eight to 14 hours in urban and rural areas of the country. The acute gas shortage has not only made the lives of 180 million people miserable in winter, but it has also adversely affected the industrial output. The country faces a daily shortage of about 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas.




Islamabad has actually offered the alternative LNG pipeline plan to avert the penalty of $3 million per day under the IP contract. The Pakistani government has already approved construction of 700km Gwadar-Nawabshah pipeline to transport LNG. An LNG terminal at Gwadar port would have the capacity to handle up to 1 billion cubic feet per day of the fuel. Chinese, Japanese and Russian companies have shown interest in building the LNG terminal and LNG pipeline from Nawabshah to Gwadar that would cost $3bn. The pipeline would also facilitate the IP pipeline project if international sanctions on Tehran are lifted.

Given China’s growing stakes in Gwadar, it is expected to be

the strongest contender in the LNG terminal and the Nawabshah-Gwadar pipeline projects, both of immense geopolitical importance. But will the proposed LNG pipeline meet the same fate of the IP pipeline?

The IP versus Tapi fight among the big powers ultimately forced Pakistan, India and Iran to abandon the pipeline project. The IP pipeline episode debunks the hard geopolitical reality that whatever Pakistan’s interests or plans for energy security, things will move according to the big powers’ interests. Like the IP pipeline, the proposed LNG pipeline project may also become a casualty of geopolitics.




Qatar to be world’s largest exporter of helium The Peninsula + NeewBase Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), is on track to become the world’s leading exporter of industrial gas (helium) pushing US to the second position as exporter of the noble gas.

With the inauguration of Helium 2 plant in Ras Laffan (in December 2013), which is the largest production facility in the world, with a capacity of 1.3bn standard cubic feet per year, the rate is nearly double Helium 1’s yearly production, which is about 700m standard cubic feet per year, according to ‘The Report Qatar 2014’, the latest annual publication by Oxford Business Group (OBG).

Interestingly, Qatar’s helium expansion has come at a time when the demand for the product has grown faster than supply, putting pressure on the global market. The state is well positioned to capitalise on the export of helium, especially when the price as well as demand for the ‘noble gas’ is expected to remain tight due to various global factors, including the policy in the US – the world’s largest helium producer. Industrial helium is critical for feedstock in a variety of scientific and high-tech industries. The product now has a wide range of applications such as to manufacturing of computer chips, superconductors, LCD screens, fibre optic cables, medical lasers such as magnetic resonance imagery (MRI) and other due to its unique chemical properties. In addition, helium is also needed for rocket-engine testing, arc welding, air-to-air missile guidance, and other civilian and military uses. As a result of strong demand and inadequate supply, the prices of grade-A gaseous helium have nearly quadrupled over the last 10 years to $6.13 per cubic metre (pcm) from $1.62 pcm in 2003. The prices rose over 35 percent in the past three years alone, according to data from the US Geological Survey. “Indications are that the mismatch between supply and demand in recent years is not the result of any sort of shortage. Global consumption is around 180m cu metres per year but global supply is 50bn cu metres,” said the OBG report quoting the US Geological Survey. The report anticipated that the policy in the US, which controls about 30 percent of the world’s helium supplies, could be altering the market. The US government’s Federal Helium Reserve, located in Texas, was set to close in late 2013 due to a sunset provision set in 1996. The helium industry responded by raising prices in anticipation of tighter supplies. However, lawmakers in the US judged that the private sector was not yet ready to shoulder current demand, and decided to keep the reserve afloat with an October 2013 law. The US




Congress’s decision to maintain the helium programme may help hold prices down in the short term, but other trends point to rising demand and decreasing supply in the long term. As a result of market volatility, several firms are taking measures to conserve the gas by diversifying suppliers and reducing the amount used. “In any case, Qatar’s increase in production seems fortuitous. The state’s entry into the market will allow it to extract a valuable export – industrial helium – from its natural gas resources. With demand on the rise and the world’s largest exporter beginning to reduce supply, Helium 2’s returns on investment could be strong,” said the OBG report.

The product has rising prospects from countries with vibrant electronics and IT industries. Japan, a major helium importer, sourced 98 percent of their helium from the US in the first three quarters of 2012. Given the high demand for the product, Japan, in January 2013, inked an agreement with Russian energy giant Gazprom to develop a helium production project in the eastern Siberia.




US pledges $3b to Green Climate Fund

Agencies + NewBase US president Barack Obama has formally announced a $3 billion contribution to an international fund to help poor countries cope with the effects of climate change. He outlined his pledge to the

UN Green Climate Fund while speaking to university students in Brisbane ahead of the official opening of the G20 Leaders’ Summit. “Today, I’m announcing that the United States will take another important step,” he said. “We will contribute $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund to help developing nations deal with climate change.” Obama’s speech made reference to Queensland’s Great Barrier Reef, which the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) has warned could be at risk if more is not done to reduce carbon emissions. “I have not had time to go to the Great Barrier Reef and I want to come back,” Obama said. “I want my daughters to be able to come back and I want them to be able to bring their daughters or sons to visit. And I want there 50 years from now.” The US contribution to the climate fund doubles what other countries had previously pledged ahead of a Nov. 20 deadline. Obama told the audience that every nation has a responsibility to act on climate change, including Australia. “The United States and Australia have a lot in common and one of the things we have in common is we produce a lot of carbon,” he said. “Historically we have not been the most energy efficient of nations, which means we’ve got to step up.” Speaking at an earlier news conference in Brisbane, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he hoped other G20 leaders would contribute to the fund. “The transition towards a low-carbon, climate-resilient future is accelerating,” he told reporters. “I urge other leaders and major economies, especially at the G20, to come forward with contributions that will sustain this momentum.”




US:Keystone XL pipeline passes one US legislative hurdle AFP + NewBase The US House of Representatives on Friday approved construction of the controversial Keystone XL pipeline to bring oil from Canada, but the measure could still find itself blocked in the Senate.

The project, which would bring oil from tar sands in Alberta province to US refineries, passed the Republican-controlled House by 252 votes to 161, with 31 Democrats supporting the measure. Keystone’s progress is closely monitored in Canada, where government officials and builder TransCanada have said the project would provide an economic boon. It is the ninth time the House has passed pro-Keystone legislation, but the pipeline faces resistance in the Senate, where Democrats will retain a majority until the new Congress in January.

And US President Barack Obama strongly signalled on Friday that he will veto the legislation if it reaches his desk. “Understand what this project is: It is providing the ability of Canada to pump their oil, send it through our land, down to the Gulf, where it will be sold everywhere else,” Obama said in Myanmar.

“If my Republican friends really want to focus on what’s good for the American people in terms of job creation and lower energy costs, we should be engaging in a conversation about what are we doing to produce even more homegrown energy.”

Obama said he wanted the ongoing evaluation process to run its course, and noted that a court case about the pipeline’s route was ongoing in Nebraska. “I don’t think we should short-circuit that process,” Obama said.

Republicans argue that Keystone will create 40,000 temporary construction jobs and they stress the high safety standards of the project and its benefits for the US economy. “It is a win-win-win situation for America,” House Republican Ed Whitfield said during floor debate. Critics warn of the pipeline’s environmental impact, arguing that tar-sand bitumen is some of the world’s dirtiest oil. House Democrat Steve Cohen noted that a 2010 tar sands oil spill in Michigan cost $1.2bn and years of clean-up. “That is where the permanent jobs are going to be created, in cleaning up the spillage, and that is not the kind of jobs the American people want,” Cohen said.

The State Department, which has authority over Keystone because of its international link, released a review in January finding that the project’s carbon emissions would not be significant.




Oil Price Drop Special Coverage

New global energy body eyed to stabilize supplies AFP + Saudi Gazette + NewBase

An overhaul of the global energy market could be a surprise outcome of the G20 summit with plans for a new agency to protect against oil and gas supplies being used as foreign policy tools, a report said Saturday. Energy security is a vital issue for many countries, and the long-term stability of oil markets is seen as crucial to ensure the reforms necessary to meet the G20’s aim of lifting its combined economic growth by at least two percent over the next five years.

The Australian newspaper said that central to ensuring open markets was the creation of a new global institution, giving a greater voice to rising economies and addressing energy security fears. It said this weekend’s Brisbane summit would not establish the new agency, but was aiming to agree the principles that it would adopt. If approved, it would lay down principles of governance for all participants in energy markets and sit above both the OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA). There was no immediate comment from the Australian government or other G20 delegations. Saudi Crown Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz said on Saturday the Kingdom would continue to




bolster stability in the region and maintain its oil policy, Al Arabiya New Channel reported. The emergence of energy as a central G20 platform comes with oil prices diving well below the $80-per-barrel mark, with global prices collapsing by some 30 percent since June.Russian President Vladimir Putin, who reportedly supports the idea of a new institution, admitted volatile energy prices were a major concern. “We’re considering all the scenarios, including the so-called catastrophic fall of prices for energy resources, which is quite possible, and we admit it,” he said in an interview with the TASS agency ahead of the G20 when asked about global imbalances. Putin said Russia, a key major oil and gas producer, was well-placed to deal with such issues but expressed concern about how emerging economies would cope. “Our reserves are big enough and they allow us to be sure that we will meet our social commitments and keep all the budgetary processes and the entire economy within a certain framework,” he said. “And what about those who don’t have these reserves? “It will be hard for them in a situation like that, but I’d like to say once again that I expect us to have a joint discussion and seek a joint solution on how to change things for the better and eliminate these imbalances.” The IEA this week forecast that prices would keep sliding well into 2015, held down by weak demand and increased shale production, amid “deep structural changes” transforming the industry. China, after voraciously consuming energy for years, is now possibly entering a less oil-intensive stage of growth, while technological innovations have unlocked shale resources in North America. In a report to the G20 industrial powers ahead of Brisbane, the International Monetary Fund said the “recent appreciable fall in oil prices, if sustained, will boost growth”. But the lower prices are hurting some crude exporters, including Venezuela, Iran and G20 member Russia. The latter two are also struggling with the impact of Western sanctions. The front-page splash in The Australian said although last-minute wrangling over the wording on energy in the G20 communique was still taking place, it was understood that OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, as well as Putin, supported the agreement. Putin, who is under intense pressure at the G20 over the Ukraine crisis, has previously used gas exports as a weapon to pressure neighbors. More than half of the Russian gas shipped to Europe, where it accounts for 15 percent of the total, passes through Ukraine. The Australian said the G20 agreement was expected to include commitments on security of energy supply, which would preclude embargoes of any sort, and transparency of pricing. Limits on the use of energy subsidies and commitments to energy efficiency were also likely to form part of the agreement, it said.




IEA sees downward pressure on oil prices Reuterds+ Oman Observer

The oil market has entered a new era with lower Chinese economic growth and booming US shale output, making a return soon to high prices unlikely, the West’s energy watchdog said on Friday. The International Energy Agency, which typically refrains from predicting oil prices, said in its monthly report that prices could fall further in 2015 after declining to their lowest levels since 2010 below $80 per barrel.

“While there has been some speculation that the high cost of unconventional oil production might set a new equilibrium for Brent prices in the $80 to $90 range, supply/demand balances suggest that the price rout has yet to run its course,” the IEA said.

Barring any new supply disruption, “downward price pressures could build further in the first half of 2015”, it said. Oil prices have fallen 30 per cent since peaking in June, pressured by a strong US dollar and rising US light, tight oil output while largely ignoring the impact of Libyan supply disruptions. Benchmark Brent crude oil was up 50 cents at $77.99 a barrel by 0910 GMT on Friday, having dropped from above $115 in June.

“Pressure on Opec to reduce production is building, but at the time of writing there appeared to be no clear consensus on a formal supply cut ahead of its meeting in Vienna later this month,” said the IEA, which represent industrialised nations.

For 2015, the IEA left its forecast of global oil demand growth unchanged at 1.13 million from a five-year annual low of 680,000 bpd in 2014, saying the macroeconomic backdrop was expected to improve.

While China, the top source of incremental oil demand in recent years, has entered a less oil intensive stage of development, years of high prices have helped new technology release oil resources in North America and elsewhere.

“It is increasingly clear that we have begun a new chapter in the history of the oil markets,” the IEA said .Total global oil deliveries edged up in October and were 2.7 million bpd higher than the year before as higher Opec production added to non-Opec supply growth of 1.8 million bpd. Opec output eased by 150,000 bpd in October to 30.60 million bpd, remaining well above the group’s official 30 million bpd supply target for a sixth month running.




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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant

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Mobile : +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

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NewBase 16 November 2014 K. Al Awadi

New base 479 special 16 november 2014

Economy & Finance

Transcript of New base 479 special 16 november 2014