New Activities of Emission Modeling¾Solid waste flow ¾Quantity of solid waste generation,...
Transcript of New Activities of Emission Modeling¾Solid waste flow ¾Quantity of solid waste generation,...
New Activities of Emission ModelingNew Activities of Emission ModelingIntegration of Climate Change Policy &Integration of Climate Change Policy &
Solid Waste Treatment PolicySolid Waste Treatment Policy
Toshihiko MASUINational Institute for Environmental Studies
6th AIM International WorkshopNIES
27-28 March, 2001
Object of New Model Analysis
Evaluation of effects of environmental policies for both global environmental problems (climate change, ...) and domestic environmental problems(solid waste, air pollutant, water pollutant, ...) on economic activities and material balance
Past & Present of This Analysis
• 1998 Analysis using dynamic optimization model (EJOR; 15 sectors & 11 wastes)
• 1999Construction of recursive model(IGES; 32 sectors & 18 wastes)
• 2000Preliminary Analysis on Policy(JSCC; 33sectors & 18 wastes)
• 2001⇒Future directions
Introduction of environmental-economic linkage model
end-use moduleeconomic modulematerial balance module
Introduction of recursive economic model and its preliminary results
Introduction of modification of economic model and its analysis
Activities on AIM Workshop
Overview of Economic Model
• Computable General Equilibrium Model• Recursive Dynamics• Pollutant Generation and Treatment
– Pollutant is regarded as “badsbads”
• Environmental Constraints: – CO2 Emissions– Final Disposal of Solid Wastes
• 33 Sectors, 31 Commodities, and 18 Solid Waste
Model Flow (Sorry too Small!)
PTGUTL
House-hold
ACT(V)
production
PK
PL
POH
PP(V,P)
PM(H,V)
PENE(V,”pro”)
PY(U)
PIWM
PMWM
RED(J,P)
pollutantself
management
PA(P)
PX(H)
PXE(EN)PM(H,J)
PENE(J,P)
PZ
PEK(P)
PL
SWS(F)
sewageserviceactivity
PS(F)
PM(H,”sew”)
PENE(“sew”,”pro”)
PP(“sew”,P)
PEK(“sew”)
PL
PK
POH
IWM(W,WMW)
industrialwaste
managementactivity
PX(H)
PM(H,”iwm”)
PENE(“iwm”,”pro”)
PP(“iwm”,P)
PEK(“w_i”)
PL
PK
POH
PZ
PIW(W,WMW)
PXE(EN)
MWM(W,WMW)
municipalwaste
managementactivity
PX(H)
PM(H,”mwm”)
PENE(“mwm”,”pro”)
PP(“mwm”,P)
PEK(“w_m”)
PL
PK
POH
PZ
PMW(W,WMW)
PXE(EN)
IWS(W,WMW)PWIX(W)
MWS(W,WMW)PWMX(W)
IWX(W)
MWX(W)
PWI(W)
PY(U)
PWM(W)
PY(U)
MWG(J)
IWG(J)
PW(J,”w_m”)
PW(J,”w_i”)
EXD(U)
ABR
PEX(U)
PDM(U)
PIM(I)
MRPA(J,P)
self management
PP(J,P)
MRPS(J,F)PP(J,F)
MRPE(J,P)
discharge into env.
PEV(P) PP(J,P)
MRPW(J,S)PP(J,S)PW(J,S)
PK
PL
PEK(P)
PZ
PCARB
PEV(P)
PDM(U)
INV(U)
PDM(U)
PX(U)
PIM(U)
PINV(U) CAPF PCAP
INFR(IVP) PSI(IVP)
ECPF1(P)
ECPF2(P)
PECP(P)
PGI(U)GI(U)
PDM(U)
PX(U)
PIM(U)
CON(I)
PDM(U)
PX(I)
PIM(I) PC(I)
HOUSE PCONPENEH
COH
PDM(U)
PIM(U)
POHPS(F)
PECH(EN)
IOM(H,J)
PDM(H)
PIM(H) PM(H,J)
PX(H)
EAGG1(EN)
EAGG2(EN)
EAGG3(EN)
PE(EN)PDM(EN)
PIM(EN)
PXE(EN)CEM(EN,J,D)
CEMH(EN)
PEC(EN,J,D)
PECH(EN)PCARB
PCARB
EAH
EAG(J,D)PENE(J,D)
PENEH
GWS
HSS
PWM(W)
PS(F)
PGS
PGW
HWS
GSS
PWM(W)
PS(F)
PDM(“mwm”)
PDM(“sew”)
PDM(“mwm”)
PDM(“sew”)
PDM(U)
PE(EN)
PE(EN)
PE(EN)
PE(EN)
PCAP
PSI(IVP)
PECP(P)
PGI(U)
PTG
PCON
PDM(U)
PIM(U)
PGW
PGS
PE(EN)
Flow of goodssee “commodities” in the model
Activitysee “sectors” in the model
PTGUTL
House-hold
ACT(V)
production
PK
PL
POH
PP(V,P)
PM(H,V)
PENE(V,”pro”)
PY(U)
PIWM
PMWM
RED(J,P)
pollutantself
management
PA(P)
PX(H)
PXE(EN)PM(H,J)
PENE(J,P)
PZ
PEK(P)
PL
SWS(F)
sewageserviceactivity
PS(F)
PM(H,”sew”)
PENE(“sew”,”pro”)
PP(“sew”,P)
PEK(“sew”)
PL
PK
POH
IWM(W,WMW)
industrialwaste
managementactivity
PX(H)
PM(H,”iwm”)
PENE(“iwm”,”pro”)
PP(“iwm”,P)
PEK(“w_i”)
PL
PK
POH
PZ
PIW(W,WMW)
PXE(EN)
MWM(W,WMW)
municipalwaste
managementactivity
PX(H)
PM(H,”mwm”)
PENE(“mwm”,”pro”)
PP(“mwm”,P)
PEK(“w_m”)
PL
PK
POH
PZ
PMW(W,WMW)
PXE(EN)
IWS(W,WMW)PWIX(W)
MWS(W,WMW)PWMX(W)
IWX(W)
MWX(W)
PWI(W)
PY(U)
PWM(W)
PY(U)
MWG(J)
IWG(J)
PW(J,”w_m”)
PW(J,”w_i”)
EXD(U)
ABR
PEX(U)
PDM(U)
PIM(I)
MRPA(J,P)
self management
PP(J,P)
MRPS(J,F)PP(J,F)
MRPE(J,P)
discharge into env.
PEV(P) PP(J,P)
MRPW(J,S)PP(J,S)PW(J,S)
PK
PL
PEK(P)
PZ
PCARB
PEV(P)
PDM(U)
INV(U)
PDM(U)
PX(U)
PIM(U)
PINV(U) CAPF PCAP
INFR(IVP) PSI(IVP)
ECPF1(P)
ECPF2(P)
PECP(P)
PGI(U)GI(U)
PDM(U)
PX(U)
PIM(U)
CON(I)
PDM(U)
PX(I)
PIM(I) PC(I)
HOUSE PCONPENEH
COH
PDM(U)
PIM(U)
POHPS(F)
PECH(EN)
IOM(H,J)
PDM(H)
PIM(H) PM(H,J)
PX(H)
EAGG1(EN)
EAGG2(EN)
EAGG3(EN)
PE(EN)PDM(EN)
PIM(EN)
PXE(EN)CEM(EN,J,D)
CEMH(EN)
PEC(EN,J,D)
PECH(EN)PCARB
PCARB
EAH
EAG(J,D)PENE(J,D)
PENEH
GWS
HSS
PWM(W)
PS(F)
PGS
PGW
HWS
GSS
PWM(W)
PS(F)
PDM(“mwm”)
PDM(“sew”)
PDM(“mwm”)
PDM(“sew”)
PDM(U)
PE(EN)
PE(EN)
PE(EN)
PE(EN)
PCAP
PSI(IVP)
PECP(P)
PGI(U)
PTG
PCON
PDM(U)
PIM(U)
PGW
PGS
PE(EN)
Flow of goodssee “commodities” in the model
Activitysee “sectors” in the model
Household
Production Activities
Including activitiesfor env. preservation
Market
Integration of recycled commodities and
ordinary commodities
Model Overview
capital labor energyinputs for pollution
managementother inter-
mediate inputs
solidwaste
household
investment
final consumption
resource input
environmentalindustry
disposal
recycling
wastetreatment
resource input
finaldisposal
CO2
environmentalinvestment
intermediatemanagement
polic
y
polic
y
polic
y
polic
y
polic
y
polic
y
productionactivity
marketpo
licy
Economic Sectors & CommoditiesID contents ID contents
AGR agriculture, forestry and fisheries WTR collection, purification and distribution of waterMIN mining SAL wholesale and retail tradeFOD manufacture of food FIN finance and insuranceTEX manufacture of textile mill products EST real estate
TRS transportation and communicationsSRV services
CHM manufacture of chemical and allied products GOV government serviceNPS non-profit institution services
SEW sewage serviceFMT manufacture of fabricated metal products MWM municipal waste treatment serviceMCH manufacture of general machinery IWM industrial waste treatment service
COL coal mining and manufacture of coal productsOIL crude oil production and manufacture of petroleum
TRE manufacture of transportation equipment GAS natural gas production and manufacture of gasTHE* thermal power generationHYD* hydro power generation
OTH miscellaneous manufacturing industries NUC* nuclear power generationCNS construction ELE** electricity
*: only sector, and **: only commodity.
NMM manufacture of ceramic, stone, and clayproducts EMC manufacture of equipment for environmental
preservation
PLP manufacture of lumber, wood products,pulp, paper and paper products
BMT manufacture of iron, steel, non-ferrousmetals and products
ELM manufacture of electrical machinery,equipment and supplies
PRI manufacture of precision instruments andmachinery
Treated Solid WastesContents
ASH ashSLD sludgeWOL slush, waste oilWAC waste acidWAL waste alkaliWPL * waste plasticsWPP * waste paperWWD * waste woodWTX * waste fiber and textileWAP * animal and plants wastesWRB * waste rubberSCM * metal trash, scrap metalWGC * waste glassSLG slagWCT construction and demolition wasteDST dust, sootEXC animal excrementCRC animal carcass
ID
*: category of municipal waste.
Modification since Last Year
• Base Year: 1990 ⇒ 1995– Revision of Database
• Time Step: 5 years ⇒ 1 year• Efficiency Improvement:
Exogenous ⇒ Change by New Capital Formation• Taxation: Not Expressed ⇒ Expressed• Capital Stock: Whole Sector ⇒ Individual Sector• Material Balance: Inconsistent ⇒ Consistent• English Manual: Nothing ⇒ Ver. 0 (almost finished)
Simulation and Parameters Modification
Database in 1995
Input-Output TableEnergy BalanceTable Waste Generation
Table
・・・
Calculation in 1995
Parameters
Calculation in 1996
Revision of parameters based on calculated new capital stock share
Revision of parameters based on calculated new capital stock share
Calculation in 1997 ...
Scen
ario
s *Efficiency of new capital*Change of preference*Environmental constraints*…
Production Structure of CGE Model
goods & service m
activity
intermediategoods 1
energy
productioncapital
laborpollution 1
value added
intermediategoods n
composed intermediategoods & service
…
input for pollutionmanagement
pollution p…
goods & service 1 …
σ=0σ=1
σ=0
σ=0
σ=0
electricity
fossil fuel 1
fossil fuel CO2 emission(environmental
resource)
fossil fuel e…
composedfossil fuel
σ=0
σ=0
σ=0produced recycledσ=0
σ:elasticity of substitution
environmentalcapital
laborenergyintermediategoods
σ=0
selfmanagement
contractmanagement
discharge(environmental
resource)
σ=∞
Share of energy inputs depends on the diffusion of capital stock
Necessary Datasetsfor Model Development
Input-output tableEnvironmental industries are disaggregated for detailed analysis.
Energy balance tablePollutant generation, emission & reductionSolid waste flow
Quantity of solid waste generation, management, disposal, and recycle
Input for pollutant managementIncluding not only environmental investment but also energy, labor, and other inputs for pollutant management.
Make matrix This matrix should be prepared when joint products*1 are modeled.
*1 joint products: technologically inseparable products ex. town gas and coke
Necessary Data (1) –Input-output Table
Intermediate Demand Final Demand
Goo
ds A
Goo
ds B
Goo
ds Z
Con
sum
ptio
nEx
pend
iture
Fixe
d C
apita
lFo
rmat
ion
Expo
rt
Impo
rt
Out
put
Goods A
Goods B
Goods ZInte
rmed
iate
Inpu
t
Wage
Val
ue A
dded Operating
SurplusIndirect Tax
- SubsidyDepreciation
Output
XAB
XBB
XZB
WB
SB
TB
DB
YB
XBA XBZ CB FCB EXB IMB YB
…
…
…
:
Intermediate input of Goods B to
produce Good Z
YB=ΣiXiB+WB+SB+TB+DB
YB=ΣoXBo+CB+FCB+EXB-IMB
Environmental equipment, sewage, waste management
service and so on are disaggregated for detailed
analysis.
Fixe
d C
apita
lFo
rmat
ion
for E
nviro
nmen
tPr
eser
vatio
n
EnvironmentalInvestment
Necessary Data (2) –Energy balance table
Energy Type
Ener
gy 1
Ener
gy 2
Ener
gy e
Indigenous Production
Imports
Prim
ary
Ener
gy
Petroleum Refineries
Tran
sfer
Electricity
:
…
:
Tota
l
Sector A
Fina
lC
onsu
mpt
ion
Sector B
:
Residential (Household)
Sector classification is the same as that
in IO table.
Energy balance table is used for estimation of
energy related pollutant generation such CO2, SOx.
Energy type is at least classified into energy
goods in IO table.
Sect
or A
Necessary Data (3) –Pollutant generation, reduction & emission
Industrial Sector
Sect
or B
Sect
or Z
Hou
seho
ld
Generation
Self Reduction
Emission
Pollu
tant
a
GBa
SRBa
EBa
SRAa SRZa SRHa
Contract Reduction
…
…
CRBa
GZa GHa…
CRZa CRHa…
EZa EHa…
GAa
CRAa
EAa
Generation
Self Reduction
Emission
Pollu
tant
p
GBp
SRBp
EBp
SRAp SRZp SRHp
Contract Reduction
…
CRBp
GZp GHp…
CRZp CRHp…
EZp EHp…
GAp
CRAp
EAp
Tota
l
SRTOTa
GTOTa
CRTOTa
ETOTa
SRTOTp
GTOTp
CRTOTp
ETOTp
… … … ……… …
GTOTp=ΣiGip+GHp
Gip=SRip+CRip+Eip
Treated pollutants depend on the analysis.
To the environment
Sector classification is the same as that
in IO table.
Gen
erat
ion
Necessary Data (4) –Solid waste flow
Dire
ct R
euse
Inte
rmed
iate
Man
agem
ent
Tota
l Reu
se
Solid Waste a
Solid Waste b
Solid Waste s
Solid
Was
te DRbWGb WMb TRb
:
Tota
lFi
nal D
ispo
sal
TDb
WGs=DRs+DDs++WMs
Treated solid wastes depend on the analysis.
To the environment(Final disposal site)
Dire
ctFi
nal D
ispo
sal
DDb
Waste Management
Red
uctio
n
Reu
se
Fina
lD
ispo
sal
MZb MDbMRb
DRsWGs WMs TRb TDbDDs MZs MDsMRs
WMs=WMs+MRs+MDs+
TRs=DRs+MRs
TRs=DRs+MRs
To the market(Recycled goods)
From industry &household
Necessary Data (5) –Input for pollutant managementSectors
Sect
or A
Prod
uctio
n
Tota
l
Goods A
Goods B
Goods ZInte
rmed
iate
Inpu
t
Wage
Val
ue A
dded Operating
SurplusIndirect Tax
- SubsidyDepreciation
Output
XAB
XBB
XZB
WB
SB
TB
DB
YB
XBA
…
…
…
:
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
Sector B
:
…
Pollu
tant
a
Sect
or Z
XBZ
Pollu
tant
p
XABY
XBBY
XZBY
WBY
SBY
TBY
DBY
YBY
:
XABa
XBBa
XZBa
WBa
SBa
TBa
DBa
YBa
:
XABp
XBBp
XZBp
WBp
SBp
TBp
DBp
YBp
:
Xio=ΣpXiop+XioY
Output of pollutant sub sectoris equal to the quantity
of self reduced pollutant
YBp=ΣiXiBp+WBp+SBp+TBp+DBp
Each sector is disaggregated into sub sectors such as
production and pollutant self management.
Necessary Data (6) –Make matrix
Commodities
Com
mod
ity A
Com
mod
ity B
Com
mod
ity Z
Sector A
Sector B
Sector Z
Sect
ors
Total output
YAB
YBB
YZB
YB
YBA YBZ
…
…
…
:
Tota
l out
put
QB
Quantity of commodity Zproduced by Sector B.
QB=ΣcYBc
YB=ΣaYaB
YB, total output of commodity B,is equal to the total of IO table.
By using IO table (commodities x commodity) and make matrix, U Matrix (matrix on commodity input by kind of economic activity) is calculated based on the commodity technology, which assumes that each commodity has its typical input structure, regardless of which industry is the producer.
Simulations
1. Evaluation of Environmental PoliciesRecycled paper, low emissions vehicle, and environmental investment for waste management
2. Evaluation of Production Activity ChangeIncrease of reused material input share
3. End-use Model for Waste ManagementSewage sludge treatment
Environmental constraintsCO2 constraint: Kyoto Target (CO2 emissions in 2010/1990 ⇒ 6 % reduction)Final disposal site: Government Target (Quantity of final disposal in 2010/1996 ⇒
50% reduction)
Simulation Results 1(1)
1. Evaluation of Environmental PoliciesA) Enhancement of demand of recycled paper
and low emissions vehicleB) Enhancement of environmental investment to
solid waste management
Background: Operation of several law for enhancement of demand of recycled commodities
Simulation Results 1(2)
GDP Changes from No Policy Case
-1000
100200300400500600700800
2005 2010Year
billio
n ye
n at
199
0 pr
ice A)-1 Recycled paper
A)-2 Low emission vehicleA)-3 Paper + vehicleB) Env. investment
Simulation Results 1(3)
Change of CO2 emissions costs from No Policy Case
-21-18-15-12-9-6-303
2005 2010Year
%
A)-1 Recycled paperA)-2 Low emission vehicleA)-3 Paper + vehicleB) Env. investment
Simulation Results 1(4)
Change of final disposal costs from No Policy Case
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2005 2010Year
%
A)-1 Recycled paperA)-2 Low emission vehicleA)-3 Paper + vehicleB) Env. investment
Simulation Results 2(1)
2. Evaluation of Production Activity ChangeA) Expansion of share of recycled material inputB) Increase of waste collection cost C) Introduction of waste power generation
Background: – Targets of material reuse by government and business
organization – Uncertainty of recycling activities –collection cost, additional
cost, …
Simulation Results 2(2)
Change of Waste Treatment
0.0E+00
5.0E+07
1.0E+08
1.5E+08
2.0E+08
2.5E+08
3.0E+08
3.5E+08
4.0E+08
4.5E+08
Gener
atio
n in
199
5Re
use
in 1
995
Gener
atio
n in
201
0 (n
o co
nstra
ints
)
Reus
e of
in 2
010
(no
cons
train
ts)
Gener
atio
n in
201
0 (n
o po
licy)
Reus
e of
in 2
010
(no
polic
y)
Gener
atio
n of
A) i
n 20
10
Reus
e of
A) i
n 20
10
Gener
atio
n of
B) i
n 20
10
Reus
e of
B) i
n 20
10
ton
CRC
EXC
DST
WCT
SLG
WGC
SCM
WRB
WAP
WTX
WWD
WPP
WPL
WAL
WAC
WOL
SLD
ASH
0.0E+00
1.0E+07
2.0E+07
3.0E+07
4.0E+07
5.0E+07
6.0E+07
7.0E+07
Gener
atio
n in
199
5Re
use
in 1
995
Gener
atio
n in
201
0 (n
o co
nstra
ints
)
Reus
e of
in 2
010
(no
cons
train
ts)
Gener
atio
n in
201
0 (n
o po
licy)
Reus
e of
in 2
010
(no
polic
y)
Gener
atio
n of
A) i
n 20
10
Reus
e of
A) i
n 20
10
Gener
atio
n of
B) i
n 20
10
Reus
e of
B) i
n 20
10
ton
WGC
SCM
WRB
WAP
WTX
WWD
WPP
WPL
Municipal waste Industrial waste
Simulation Results 2(3)
GDP Change
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
GD
P c
hange
tri. yen
at
199
5 p
rice
GDP Loss from env. Const. Scenario A) Scenario B)
Simulation Results 2(4)
GDP Change in each sector (2010/1995)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
AGR
MIN
FOD
TEX
PLP
CHMNM
MBM
TFM
TM
CH ELM
TRE
PRI
OTH CNSW
TR SAL
FIN
EST
TRS
SRV
GOVNP
SEM
CSE
WM
WM
IWM
COL
OILGAS TH
EHY
DNU
CGDP
No constraints No policy scenariio A) scenariio B)
Simulation Results 2(5)
Marginal cost of CO2 and final disposal
CO2
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
1995 2000 2005 2010Year
Yen a
t 1995 p
rice /
tC
No policy
scenario A)
scenario B)
scenario C)
Final Disposal
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Yen a
t 1995 p
rice /
ton
No policy
scenario A)
scenario B)
scenario C)
Simulation Results 3(1)
End-use model construction– Sewage sludge* treatment from 1997 to 2026– 26 technologies for treatment– Minimization of total treatment cost
subject to upper limit of quantity of final disposal and material recycling demand
* Volume of sludge is 36 % of final disposal.
Background: Parameter modification by technology change
Simulation Results 3(2)
Change of technology share
dehydrated cakecompostdrying
incinerationfusioncarbonization
In 1997 In 2026Fixed technologyand low recycledmaterial demand
In 2026Introduction of advanced
technology andenhancement of recycled
material demand
Future Directions• Separation of some sectors
– Recycled paper, electric furnaces of crude steel, ...• Separation of intermediate treatment of solid wastes
– Incineration for reduction / other treatments for recycling• Apply this model to AIM collaboration countries
– Modification of model for wide use– Application to India with Dr. Rana
• Apply to Material Balance Analysis– Steel, paper, wood, carbon, ...
• Integration with Bottom-up Model– AIM end-use model / energy efficiency– Waste treatment technology model / solid waste treatment