Seasonal Outlook&

NWS Resources

Latah LEPCJanuary 14, 2013

Andy Brown

‘Neutral’ Conditions are around average SSTs

El Niño vs La Niña

Niño Indices: Historical Evolution

Niño Indices: Recent Evolution

• Transition from La Nina to El Nino early last summer

• Weak El Nino to Neutral conditions persisting the last several months

• Neutral conditions are present across the eastern equatorial Pacific

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) about 0.4 degree above average

• SSTs are showing a moderating or slowing trend right now

Tropical Pacific Status

Consensus ENSO Forecast

Bottom Line…

• Instead, Neutral to very weak El Nino conditions expected

El Nino watch has been…

ENSO & Spokane Snowfall

Seasonal Snowfall

• 35.2” as of February 12• Average approximately another 10” mid February through April• 3 out of the last 4 years measured at least 12” in March and April

Full Season Temperature Outlooks

Feb/Mar/Apr

Mar/Apr/May

Full Season Precipitation Outlooks

Feb/Mar/Apr

Mar/Apr/May

8-14 Day Outlook (Feb 21-27)

Temperature

Precipitation

NWS Resources:Insuring Decision Makers Know

How to Get the Information They Need

NWS Spokane Webpage:

Point and Click Forecast Map

HazardousWeatherOutlook

A more general description of potential weather hazards

(Especially Days 2-7)

Winter Weather Advisory

Detailed HighlightWhatWhenWhereImpacts

Used to convey rapidly evolving hazards

Heavy snow bands Dense fog Thunderstorms

Short Term Forecast (NOW Cast)

weather.gov/spokane

Interactive map highlighting exactly where the hazards/impacts are expected

Resources:Detailed Hazards

Weather StoryWeather Story

Event driven

Highlight the expected impacts

All hazards (severe weather, flooding,

pattern changes, etc)

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National Weather Service Spokane

@NWSSpokane

NWS Spokane

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