NESDIS ORA NESDIS ORA PRESENTATION TO NWS PARTNERS PRESENTATION TO NWS PARTNERS

WORKSHOPWORKSHOP

PRECIP, FLASH FLOODS & AVIATION DEVELOPMENTSPRECIP, FLASH FLOODS & AVIATION DEVELOPMENTS

Hank DrahosHank Drahos

June 24, 2004June 24, 2004

Hank.Drahos@noaa.govHank.Drahos@noaa.gov

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/index.htmlhttp://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/index.html

Upcoming Improvements to the Upcoming Improvements to the Hydro-Estimator on AWIPSHydro-Estimator on AWIPS

Currently, the version of the H-E that is supplied to Currently, the version of the H-E that is supplied to AWIPS uses GOES-12 (East) data only. AWIPS uses GOES-12 (East) data only. Beginning with an upcoming AWIPS maintenance Beginning with an upcoming AWIPS maintenance release (by the end of FY 2004), GOES-10 (West) release (by the end of FY 2004), GOES-10 (West) data will also be used and will improve coverage data will also be used and will improve coverage and accuracy over the Western US.and accuracy over the Western US.

Related improvements:Related improvements:– Areas of missing data will be discriminated from areas Areas of missing data will be discriminated from areas

of no precipitation (currently both are indicated by zero of no precipitation (currently both are indicated by zero values);values);

– Coverage of the AWIPS product will also be extended Coverage of the AWIPS product will also be extended into Canada.into Canada.

Upcoming Improvements to the Upcoming Improvements to the Hydro-Estimator on AWIPSHydro-Estimator on AWIPS

In response to an NWS request, a version of In response to an NWS request, a version of the H-E for Hawaii is being developed. the H-E for Hawaii is being developed. Operational implementation is anticipated in Operational implementation is anticipated in FY 2006.FY 2006.

The NWS has also requested H-E coverage The NWS has also requested H-E coverage over Puerto Rico. Arrangements are being over Puerto Rico. Arrangements are being made for coverage to be extended to Puerto made for coverage to be extended to Puerto Rico in a future AWIPS build (the H-E is Rico in a future AWIPS build (the H-E is already available for Puerto Rico via the already available for Puerto Rico via the Web).Web).

Upcoming Improvements to the Upcoming Improvements to the Hydro-Estimator on AWIPSHydro-Estimator on AWIPS

A recalibration of the H-E cloud top A recalibration of the H-E cloud top temperature/rainfall rate curve has been temperature/rainfall rate curve has been initiated.initiated.

Incorporating lightning data into H-E and the Incorporating lightning data into H-E and the Hydro-Nowcaster. Hydro-Nowcaster.

Flash flood producing thunderstorm over the Washington DC Metropolitan Region with 5 minute cloud to ground lightning superimposed: June 17, 2004 at 7:00 PM

GOES 12

10.7m IR

Three hour Nowcasts for July 1, 2002, 0600 - 0900 UTC

Hydro - Nowcaster [inches] Stage III

GOES Aviation Products on AWIPSGOES Aviation Products on AWIPS

Current CapabilitiesCurrent Capabilities– Images (Vis, IR, WV)Images (Vis, IR, WV)– Fog (11-4Fog (11-4m)m)– Volcanic Ash (11-Volcanic Ash (11-

1212m; GOES-10 only)m; GOES-10 only)– Sounder productsSounder products

Cloud Top HeightCloud Top Height Lifted IndexLifted Index SoundingsSoundings Microburst Indices Microburst Indices

(Wind Index, MDPI)(Wind Index, MDPI)

Potential UpgradesPotential Upgrades * *– Low Cloud Base **Low Cloud Base **– Aircraft IcingAircraft Icing– Ozone (CAT potential)Ozone (CAT potential)– Global cloud topsGlobal cloud tops– Volcanic ash (GOES-12 Volcanic ash (GOES-12

through 15) **through 15) **– Wet Microburst Wet Microburst

Potential IndexPotential Index

* None on current AWIPS Build schedules** Supported by NWS

GOES Low Cloud Base ProductGOES Low Cloud Base Product Shows where low Shows where low

ceilings & fog are ceilings & fog are likelylikely

Based on GOES IR – Based on GOES IR – surface temperaturesurface temperature

Verification (lower Verification (lower 48)48)– POD ~ 72%POD ~ 72%– FAR ~ 11%FAR ~ 11%

Low clouds may be Low clouds may be obscured by cirrusobscured by cirrusGOES-10 LCB – 27 Aug 2002 / 1300Z

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/fog.html

GOES Aircraft Icing PotentialGOES Aircraft Icing Potential

Shows likely areas of Shows likely areas of supercooled clouds + supercooled clouds + cloud top heightscloud top heights

Uses Imager IR & Uses Imager IR & Visible + Sounder Visible + Sounder

Not able to detect SLD Not able to detect SLD (Supercooled Large (Supercooled Large Drop) icingDrop) icing

Cirrus obscurationCirrus obscurationGOES ‘ICECAP’ Product

http://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/aviation/icg.html

< 6 kft < 12 kft < 18 kft < 24 kft

Full Disk Cloud Top ImageFull Disk Cloud Top Image

Global cloud top Global cloud top coverage coverage

Uses new 13.3 Uses new 13.3 m IR on GOES-m IR on GOES-12+12+

More accurate More accurate cloud top heights cloud top heights for volcanic ash for volcanic ash plumesplumes

U. Of Wisconsin – CIMSShttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/realtime/grtmain.html

GOES Ozone ProductGOES Ozone Product High ozone levels High ozone levels are found in are found in tropopause tropopause “folds” near upper “folds” near upper level frontslevel fronts

Correlate with Correlate with clear air clear air turbulenceturbulence

CIMSS ozone CIMSS ozone product derived product derived from Sounderfrom Sounder

CIMSS Ozone Producthttp://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/realtime/grtmain.html#ozone