Negotiating climate change

- Issues and options -

Christine ZumkellerBonn – Cambridge, February 2008

Time to act

Ban-Ki Moon, Secretary-General of the UN:2007 turning point: climate change rose to the top of the international agenda

● Stern Review● UN, IPCC, GA, „Bali“

2008: time to take concerted action

“Protecting the climate system for present and future generations, integrated with social and economic development“

Time to act

Action needed at many levels: local to global

Many different actors: Public, private, civil society

Many roles, many ingredientsSetting goals

Planning for and achieving targets

Mobilizing resources

Enhanced awareness

Implementing cooperatively

Your role ?!

Negotiating climate change

Knowing the context and links: climate change and sustainable development

Sizing the problem: $ 500 bn per year, cost of inaction much exceeds the cost of action

Willingness to move

Using building blocks

Scoping the issues

Being bold and creative about options

Agreeing on solutions

Issues and optionsThe Bali Action Plan

Using building blocks: Convention and its Kyoto Protocol – dual track

Scoping the issues: the four componentsMitigation

● Commitments or actions (legally binding and/or other?) for industrialised countries

● Action for developing countries “supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building”

Adaptation

Technology development &transfer

Investment and Finance, Incentives

Issues and optionsunder the Kyoto Protocol (KP)

Targets for “Annex I” Parties – 2008-2012 to be followed by targets for „subsequent commitment periods“ (Art.3.9) – legally binding

Accountability and accounting rules

Compliance with cost-effectiveness

Market created – price signal emerging

“Cooperative”/ “flexible” mechanismsJoint implementation (JI) among Annex I

Emissions trading (ET) among Annex I

Clean development mechanism (CDM): cooperation “Annex I” and “non-Annex I”

Results

920 registered CDM projects1.16 billion CERs expected frm existing registered projects to the end of 2012

(assumption: no extension of crediting periods)

To date: > 2,900 projects (including registered projects)> 2.6 billion CERs expected to the end of 2012

In pipeline:

Map and statistics accessible at http://cdm.unfccc.int/

Status: 8 February 2008

Results

CDM the largest CO2 offset system in the world

920 registered projects to dateapprox. additional 2000 projects in pipeline49 countries115,382,000 CERs issued (certified emission

reductions)2.6 billion CERs expected to end of 2012 32% unilateral projects

Status: 8 February 2008

Results (project trends)

Chart from UNEP RISOE

CDM projects that entered pipeline in 2006 expected to result in USD 25 billion in capital investment

(almost double the USD 14 billion in total investment leveraged through GEF in the climate change area since it started)

CDM renewable energy and energy efficiency projects registered in 2006 expected to result inUSD 5.7 billion in capital investment

(about triple the ODA support for energy policy and renewable energy projects in the same countries. Almost as much as private investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency (USD 6.5 billion in 2006) in the same countries)

Investment, financial flows

Condensed from the report of the CDM Executive Board to the COP/MOP 2007 <http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cmp3/eng/03p01.pdf>, page 4.

Issues and optionsuntil 2009

Agreeing on process and timetables: 2008-2009, start with work programme, 30 March-4 April 2008, little more than 12 months left for blueprint

Working towards agreement on:Targets for second commitment period for Annex I

Determination of comparability of efforts

Incentives for action of developing countries, mechanism for reducing deforestation, size of CDM

Equity in burden-sharing (who pays, for what, when)

Dynamic political environment

Your role

15-year window of opportunity for decisive action to avoid temperature increase beyond 2 degrees Celsius/concentration level above 550 ppm (375 now) by 2050

The Challenge: Water Security

Figure 1.4

Your role... Cost of inaction

... Cost of action – think of opportunities

Your roleBuilding trust

Recognition of mutual interest

Cooperation

Your roleFinding the right mix

Finding the balance

Your roleYou are privileged to be imaginative, courageous and non-parochial in

thinking

behaviour

communicating

Cultivating comprehensive knowledge, compassion, good judgement and balance

Assuming enlightened leadership

Business-as-usual won't do

Time to act. Thank you.