NEAREST 2nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9oct 08 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal...
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Transcript of NEAREST 2nd year Meet ing – Berlim 8 -9oct 08 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Portugal...
NEA
REST 2
nd y
ear
Meet
ing –
Berl
im 8
-9
oct
0
8
WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Modelling of tsunami impact in SW PortugalPortugal
Berlim 8-9 October 2008
NEAREST
FFCUL
Rachid OmiraMaria Ana Baptista
Miguel Miranda
NEA
REST 2
nd y
ear
Meet
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Berl
im 8
-9
oct
0
8WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Modelling of tsunami impact in SW PortugalPortugal
WP7.1 Collation of the new Bathymetric Data (merge data not complete)
WP7.2 Implementation of a Numerical Tsunami Model for SW Portugal
WP7.3 Simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the “Boca do Rio” area
WP7.4 Production of Inundation Maps for Lagos-Sagres
WP7.5 Model Parametrization and Validation
NEA
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Meet
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-9
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COMCOT _ LXAdopted from COMCOT (Cornell University, Liu et al., 1994)
COMCOT code (Cornell University)COMCOT code (Cornell University) Tsunami Simulation Code Based on Tsunami Simulation Code Based on
Shallow Water EquationsShallow Water Equations Leap-frog schemeLeap-frog scheme Nested grid systemNested grid system Moving boundary schemeMoving boundary scheme
WP7.5 Model Parametrization and Validation
CGUL changes: COMCOT – LxCGUL changes: COMCOT – LxSurfer format input / outputSurfer format input / outputOutput Inundation / Flow depthsOutput Inundation / Flow depths
NEA
REST 2
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Meet
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-9
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TRANSFER AREAS
Nested grid systemNested grid system
NEAREST AREAS
WP7.5 Model Parametrization and Validation
NEA
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Meet
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Berl
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-9
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Benchmark testing (collab.with TRANFER project)Benchmark testing (collab.with TRANFER project)#1 – #1 – RUNUP ONTO A PLANE BEACHRUNUP ONTO A PLANE BEACH
WP7.5 Model Parametrization and Validation
NEA
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Meet
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Berl
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-9
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The model earthquake - Lisbon eventThe model earthquake - Lisbon event
WP7.3 Simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the “Boca do Rio” area
Fault Plane Strike / Dip / Rake: 340 / 45 / 90
Fault centre Lat / Lon: 37.0N / 9.75W (SW Lisbon)
L = 210 km, W = 75 km, D = 13.6 m
NEA
REST 2
nd y
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Meet
ing –
Berl
im 8
-9
oct
0
8
WP7.3 Simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the “Boca do Rio” area
NEA
REST 2
nd y
ear
Meet
ing –
Berl
im 8
-9
oct
0
8
Does Inundation correlate well to sedimentological evidence?
WP7.3 Simulation of the 1755 tsunami along Algarve
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Berl
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-9
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WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in Modelling of tsunami impact in CasablancaCasablanca
(Johnston,1996) (Zitellini, 2001, 2003)
(Gutscher, 2002,2006) (Baptista, 1998)
(Omira et al, 2007) to be sub. To Natural Hazards
Modelled Run up correlates well slip (Okal & Synolakis, GJInt., 2004 et al)
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Meet
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Berl
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-9
oct
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WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in Modelling of tsunami impact in CasablancaCasablanca
Vunerability study
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Meet
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Berl
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-9
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8 Casablanca Harbour area building stockCasablanca Harbour area building stock
Building Survey by Rachid April 2007
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Meet
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oct
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WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in Modelling of tsunami impact in CasablancaCasablanca
Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment
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REST 2
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Meet
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-9
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On going…Modelling tsunami impact in the study Areas using WP1 +TRANSFER & ERSTA Zones
WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in test Modelling of tsunami impact in test areasareas
NEA
REST 2
nd y
ear
Meet
ing –
Berl
im 8
-9
oct
0
8
On going…Modelling tsunami impact in the study Areas using WP1 +TRANSFER & ERSTA Zones
WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in test Modelling of tsunami impact in test areasareas
Miranda JM, Baptista MA, Terrinha P, Matias, L. 31st ESC Crete Sept 2008
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Meet
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Berl
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-9
oct
0
8tsts Initial displacements using heterogeneous slip
(SCC (Geist & Domovska ,1999))
INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECT IN INNUNDATION MAPSON GOING
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Meet
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Berl
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-9
oct
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8
Maximum wave elevation +Energy radiation+Travel time
For each scenario
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Computed maximum wave height , energy direction and tsunami travel time for the tsunami scenarios in the Golf of Cadiz
WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in test Modelling of tsunami impact in test areasareas
Red lineFirst arrival to the coast
Less 30 minutes
NEA
REST 2
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Meet
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Berl
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-9
oct
0
8WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in test Modelling of tsunami impact in test areasareas
Priority tsunameter location
Tsunami travel time+Radiation pattern+bottom topography
Warning time 15 min =Arrival Time – Detection time
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Meet
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Berl
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NEXT STEPS
Tune Model for Flow Depth Velocity
WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in test Modelling of tsunami impact in test areasareas
Produce FDVelocity maps
Ouput of TRANSFER: standards for Inundation maps (next week Messina )DoW 27 – Month 29
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-9
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8Next steps
GEOSUB
August 08 survey
Improvement of inundation results with new data
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Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using Numerical Modelling and GIS tools
R. Omira , M. A. Baptista , J. M. Miranda ,C. Catita, E. Toto Subm to Natural Hazards (may 2008, under revision)
REVISION OF THE PORTUGUESE CATALOGUE OF TSUNAMISM. A. Baptista, J. M. Miranda (subm NHESS, accept with minor
revision)
REVISION OF THE MOROCCO TSUNAMI CATALOGUEF. Kaabouben, M. A. Baptista, A. Iben Brahim, A. Toto, A. Elmouraouah
Ready for submission to NHESS ?
publications
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WP1.1 - INGV - Database for paleotsunamis Euro-Mediterranean area (boulders or sediments)
TRANSFER web site
The DB can be visited and updated through the web interface (http://paleotsunami.rm.ingv.it/) and data can be downloaded in a format ready to be included in the TRANSFER GIS DB.
TRANSFER WP1 DATABASE
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Berl
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-9
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WP7 WP7 Modelling of tsunami impact in SW Modelling of tsunami impact in SW PortugalPortugal
Del.n.
Deliverable name
Workpackage
Workpackage n.
Due Date
(project
month)
Actual/
Forecast
delivery
date
Estimated indicative
person months
(all partners involved)
Used indicative
person months (all
partners involved)
Lead contract
or
D24a
D24b
new bathymetri
c mapcruise report
WP71111
1212
5 5 FFCUL
D25
implementation of a
numerical tsunami
model for SW
Portugal
WP7 17 17 12 12 FFCUL
D26
simulation of the 1755 tsunami in the Boca de
Rio area
WP7 29 29 9 9 FFCUL
D27
inundation maps for Lagos-Sagres
WP7 32 32 9 9 FFCUL
D28
validation of the model
WP7 35 35 12 12 FFCUL