NCR Real Estate Report H2 2016 Presentation
-
Upload
knight-frank-india -
Category
Real Estate
-
view
23 -
download
3
Transcript of NCR Real Estate Report H2 2016 Presentation
H1 2016, a recap
- A recovery predictedINDIA
REAL ESTATEJULY – DECEMBER 2016
NCR
NCR REAL ESTATE
The story so far
NCR RESIDENTIAL MARKET ON A CONTINUOUS DOWNWARD SLIDE
New launches dry further in 2016
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
172
,571
110
,751
100
,259
99,
407
79,
577
63,
458
26,
734
Chart Title
No
of u
nits
85% drop from the peak
58% drop from 2015
Yearly trend of new launches
Buyers in a wait and watch mode; Sales dip further
Yearly trend of sales
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
117
,559
93,
986
79,
178
74,
966
48,
630
48,
800
40,
005
Chart Title
No
of u
nits
66% drop from the peak
18% drop from 2015
Prices in NCR have corrected to 2013 levels
7% drop in prices YoY in H2 2016Half-yearly trend of weighted average price
H1
2010
H2
2010
H1
2011
H2
2011
H1
2012
H2
2012
H1
2013
H2
2013
H1
2014
H2
2014
H1
2015
H2
2015
H1
2016
H2
2016
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2,760 2,780 2,999
3,370
3,720
3,970 4,195
4,330 4,400 4,444 4,511 4,578
4,346 4,250
Wei
ghte
d av
erag
e pr
ice
INR
Prices have come down to 2013 levels
The cookie crumbles further - H2 pulls down sales & launches in 2016
Dip in launches and sales by 73% and 29% YoY respectively in H2 2016
Half-yearly trend of sales, launches and weighted price movements
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 -
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
42,
542
57,
717
62,
418
36,
989
34,
577
45,
000
29,
458
34,
000
17,
462
9,2
73
34,
199
44,
979
45,
276
29,
690
28,
000
20,
630
25,
000
23,
800
23,
092
16,
913
Launches Sales
No.
of u
nits
-73%
-29%
All micro-markets in the same boatMicro-market share of new launches
Delhi Faridabad Ghaziabad Greater Noida Gurugram Noida -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
208
2,0
06
6,0
80
46,
392
19,
776
18,
149
- 1
,353
9,2
04
5,0
51
14,
051
13,
416
- 1
,983
11,
122
25,
565
13,
093
5,9
54
13 613
6,0
57
19,
847
6,4
61
3,9
99
95
344
7,7
90
18,
401
12,
002
6,3
68
71
260
5,8
86
13,
903
9,0
68
4,8
11
649
- 1,1
39
2,5
44
1,1
59
3,7
82
H2 2010 H2 2011 H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015 H2 2016
No.
of u
nits
Buyers still uncertain across all micro-marketsMicro-market share of sales
Delhi Faridabad Ghaziabad Greater Noida Gurugram Noida -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
158
2,1
75 6
,152
24,
618
11,
336
19,
658
109
1,4
49
7,7
19
6,0
47
11,
755
13,
353
63 1
,643
8,3
75
13,
733
11,
485
9,6
81
67 703
6,1
70
13,
840
5,1
26
3,7
83
59 382
4,1
79
8,9
86
3,9
44
3,0
80
65 463
4,8
82
10,
518
4,4
51
3,4
21
50
298
3,8
88 6,7
70
2,8
97
3,0
10
H2 2010 H2 2011 H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015 H2 2016
No.
of u
nits
QTS stagnated since 2015 - 4.2 years to offload the unsold inventory
NCR market health – Quarters to sell and unsold inventory
Jun-1
4
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-1
5
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-1
6
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Unsold inventory stands at 192,758 units in 2016
Impact ofDemonetisation
NCR hit hard – Sales volume dropped by 53% YoY in Q4 2016;
new launches fell by a massive 73%
Quarterly trend of new launches and sales
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 2,000
6,000
10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
30,000
18,771
15,806
27,000
18,000 18,070
11,388
20,400
13,600 10,477
6,985 5,564
3,709
15,680
12,320 10,417 10,213
15,000
10,000 9,520
14,280
9,237
13,855
10,148
6,765
Launches Sales
No
of u
nits
Demonetisation impact in Q4
Average # units sold in Q4 2014 & Q4 2015 12,247
# Units sold in Q4 2016 6,765
45% fall in sales
Notional REVENUE LOSS to real estate industry
INR 3,700 cr
State government notional LOSS ON STAMP DUTY
INR 260 cr
Key takeaways
Endemic issuesInventory pileup l Infrastructure delays l Delayed projects completions
Developers rush to complete projects before RERA kicks in
Demonetization brings residential market to a standstill
Uncertainty likely to continue for the next quarter
Reduction in home loan interest rates, RERA, GST and ‘possible’ tax benefits in the upcoming budget likely to bring in a ‘feel good factor’
among buyers
Office market
PROJECT DELAYS HAMPER NEW COMPLETIONS
Delay in project completions dry up supply in 2016
Yearly trend of new completions and transactions
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
9.9
6.3
9.6
7.08.1
11.5
4.6
6.9 7.26.4 6.6
7.6 7.4 7.3
New completions Transactions
mn
sq ft
New completions are at an all time low in H2 2016, demand holds steady
Half yearly trend of new completions and transactions
H2 2010 H2 2011 H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015 H2 20160.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
5.56.3 6.0
3.54.1
6.0
1.8
3.5 3.3 3.0 3.24.1
3.7 3.8
New completions Transactions
mn
sq ft
70% YoY drop
Pressure on rentals; Vacancy at an all time low since 2012
Weighted average price rentals
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 201650
55
60
65
70
75
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
21.0%
22.0%
53 5352
53
5658
62
64
70
73
20.3%
21.9%
21.3%20.9%
20.6%
20.0%
20.7%
21.5%
20.6%
18.9%
Price Vacancy (RHS)
INR
/sq
ft / m
onth
Vaca
ncy
(RH
S)
Gurugram holds the largest share in H2 2016 transactions
Market share of transactions
CBD - Delhi Faridabad Gurgaon Noida SBD - Delhi Greater Noida0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2% 1%
56%
23%
10% 8%1% 0%
63%
23%
11%
0%
H2 2015 H2 2016
% s
hare
3.6 mn sq ft 3.8 mn sq ft
IT/ITES which experienced a setback in H1 2016, regains its position
Share of sectoral split of transactions
BFSI * IT/ITeS Manufacturing Other services sector
5%
30%
22%
43%
13%17%
29%
41%
8%
28% 28%
36%
H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016
74% increase in transacted space
3.7 mn sq ft 3.5 mn sq ft 3.8 mn sq ft
Key takeaways
Transaction holds steady in H2 2016
Vacancy at all time low with key locations such as DLF Cybercity and Golf Course Road
in single digit
Upward pressure on rentals
Download the complete report from the link below:bit.ly/IREH216-SS