GOES-R Aviation Weather Applications Frederick R. Mosher NWS/NCEP Aviation Weather Center.
NCEP Production Suite Review Aviation Weather Center
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Transcript of NCEP Production Suite Review Aviation Weather Center
NCEP Production Suite Review
Aviation Weather Center
NCEP Production Suite Review
Aviation Weather Center
Jason Levit and Amy Harless
December 7, 2011Kansas City, MO
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center
Jason Levit and Amy Harless
December 7, 2011Kansas City, MO
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Aviation Weather Center
AWC Mission and Vision StatementAWC Mission and Vision Statement
“The Aviation Weather Center delivers consistent, timely, and accurate weather information to the world airspace system. We are a team of highly skilled people dedicated to working with customers and partners to enhance safe and efficient flight.”
“To be the trusted authority and leading innovator for aviation weather information.”
“The Aviation Weather Center delivers consistent, timely, and accurate weather information to the world airspace system. We are a team of highly skilled people dedicated to working with customers and partners to enhance safe and efficient flight.”
“To be the trusted authority and leading innovator for aviation weather information.”
Weather is only a small partWeather is only a small partof the entire NextGen enterpriseof the entire NextGen enterprise
The “Game-Changer”…The “Game-Changer”…
• 8 August 2009• Express Jet Flight 2816
• IAH to MSP, diverted to ROC at 0300• Deplaned at 0600
• Passenger “Bill of Rights”• “Three-Hour” Tarmac Rule in place 29 April
2010• Up to $27,500 per passenger
fine
• Bolstered need for extended
forecasting; no longer
press-to-fail mentality
• 8 August 2009• Express Jet Flight 2816
• IAH to MSP, diverted to ROC at 0300• Deplaned at 0600
• Passenger “Bill of Rights”• “Three-Hour” Tarmac Rule in place 29 April
2010• Up to $27,500 per passenger
fine
• Bolstered need for extended
forecasting; no longer
press-to-fail mentality
Air Traffic ComplexityAir Traffic Complexity
Courtesy Aaron Koblin – http://www.aaronkoblin.com
Air Traffic ComplexityAir Traffic Complexity
Courtesy Aaron Koblin – http://www.aaronkoblin.com
Aviation Weather Center Operations
Aviation Weather Center Operations
CONUSCONUS•2 convective desks2 convective desks•3 area forecast desks3 area forecast desks
InternationalInternational•1 area forecast desk1 area forecast desk•2 global graphics desks2 global graphics desks
WebWeb•Aviation Digital Data Aviation Digital Data ServicesServices•testbed.aviationweathertestbed.aviationweather.gov.gov
Aviation Weather CenterWhat’s New?
Aviation Weather CenterWhat’s New?
Testbed activities: Summer Experiments
• Moving towards “content creation” vs “content management”
Four new positions:
• Two GS-14 “National Aviation Meteorologists” at the Air Traffic Control Command Center – Dec 2011
• NextGEN Support Scientist (CIRA) – Dec 2011
• GOES-R Specialist (CIMSS) – Jan/Feb 2012
Testbed activities: Summer Experiments
• Moving towards “content creation” vs “content management”
Four new positions:
• Two GS-14 “National Aviation Meteorologists” at the Air Traffic Control Command Center – Dec 2011
• NextGEN Support Scientist (CIRA) – Dec 2011
• GOES-R Specialist (CIMSS) – Jan/Feb 2012
Aviation Weather Center2011 Evaluations
Aviation Weather Center2011 Evaluations
Hires Window Upgrade (Feb – Mar 2011)
GFS Upgrade (Mar – Apr 2011)
NAM Upgrade (Jun – Oct 2011)
RUC -> RAP (Rapid Refresh) Upgrade (Present)
General perception:
• Increase in skill with all upgrades
• Great teamwork and collaboration on evalulations
Hires Window Upgrade (Feb – Mar 2011)
GFS Upgrade (Mar – Apr 2011)
NAM Upgrade (Jun – Oct 2011)
RUC -> RAP (Rapid Refresh) Upgrade (Present)
General perception:
• Increase in skill with all upgrades
• Great teamwork and collaboration on evalulations
Data Acquired (GEMPAK)Data Acquired (GEMPAK)
• GFS, 1° x 1°, 3 hrly to F48, soundings
• NAM, 90 km and 64 km, 3 hrly to F48, soundings
• WRM-NMM high res window, hrly to F48
• NSSL WRF-NMM, thinned, 3 hrly to F48
• RUC, 40 km, hrly to F18, soundings
• SREF, hrly to 39, 3 hrly to 87
• SFCOA, hrly (via SPC)
• UKMET, 1.25° x 1.25°, 6 hrly to F48
• GFS, 1° x 1°, 3 hrly to F48, soundings
• NAM, 90 km and 64 km, 3 hrly to F48, soundings
• WRM-NMM high res window, hrly to F48
• NSSL WRF-NMM, thinned, 3 hrly to F48
• RUC, 40 km, hrly to F18, soundings
• SREF, hrly to 39, 3 hrly to 87
• SFCOA, hrly (via SPC)
• UKMET, 1.25° x 1.25°, 6 hrly to F48
Aviation Weather CenterExample NWP ApplicationsAviation Weather CenterExample NWP Applications
1 Hour Calibrated SREF CCFP Conditions
FCST: F012 Valid: Wed 20111012/2100UTC
Forecaster Issued CCFP
FCST: F006 Valid: Wed 20111012/2100UTC
Aviation Weather CenterExample NWP Applications
Aviation Weather CenterExample NWP Applications
All Flights > 25 kft Impact of Thunderstorms: > 25 kft
Combine composite aircraft position data with SREF probabilistic weather information
Aviation Weather Testbed
Aviation Weather Testbed
Test and Evaluate existing and emerging datasets
• High Resolution Guidance• 2011 Summer Experiment
• Operational Bridging
• Traffic Impact
• Convective Initiation
• Ensembles• Calibration
• Traffic Impact
• ECFP Enhancement
Test and Evaluate existing and emerging datasets
• High Resolution Guidance• 2011 Summer Experiment
• Operational Bridging
• Traffic Impact
• Convective Initiation
• Ensembles• Calibration
• Traffic Impact
• ECFP Enhancement
Testbed Activities: 2011 AWT Summer
Experiment
Testbed Activities: 2011 AWT Summer
Experiment
2011 Aviation Weather Testbed Summer Experiment
2011 Aviation Weather Testbed Summer Experiment
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Data Set Source Status Comments12-member 4km WRF-
ARW EnsembleDoD/AFWA Active 18Z start, 36-hour
forecast, data starts at 00Z
Derivied Traffic Impact Potential
NCAR Active Derivied from AFWA Ensemble
3km HRRR GSD Active Hourly
Short-Range Ensemble EMC Active Every six hours
Convective NearCast - Satellite
GOES-R/CIMSS Active Fifteen minute updates
Convective Initiation - Satellite
GOES-R/CIMMS Active Fifteen minute updates
Convective Probability MDL Active NextGen Capability Evaluation
CoSPA MIT/LL Active CCFP first-guess polygons
NAEFS EMC Active - AFWA Every six hours
Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
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Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
High Resolution Rapid Refresh
• Comp. Reflectivity
• Top 25 Jet Routes
High Resolution Rapid Refresh
• Comp. Reflectivity
• Top 25 Jet Routes
AFWA EnsembleAFWA Ensemble
Probability of Echo Tops >= 25 kft with Top 25 Jet Probability of Echo Tops >= 25 kft with Top 25 Jet Routes Routes
Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment
Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment
•Probability of airspace capacity reductions in East-West and North-South direction by 25% and 50% at flight levels 20, 30, 40 kft
•Based on CoSPA gridded data and AFWA Ensemble
•Probability of airspace capacity reductions in East-West and North-South direction by 25% and 50% at flight levels 20, 30, 40 kft
•Based on CoSPA gridded data and AFWA Ensemble
NCAR Airspace Capacity Reduction
Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment
Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer ExperimentLAMP Convective
Probability
Probability of convection definedas the occurrenceof reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZand/or one or more cloud-to-groundlightning strike
within a 20 grid box and a 2 hour time period.
LAMP Convective Probability
Probability of convection definedas the occurrenceof reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZand/or one or more cloud-to-groundlightning strike
within a 20 grid box and a 2 hour time period.
Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer Experiment
Aviation Weather Testbed
2011 Summer ExperimentGOES-R Nearcast
Product
• Short-term Lagrangian trajectory model
• Incorporates retrieved parameters from GOES sounder data
• 1-9 hour projections of GOES moisture and temperature retrievals
• RUC background model
• Hourly timestamps
• Provides information on upper-level dryness, low-level moisture gradients, and total thermodynamic energy
GOES-R Nearcast Product
• Short-term Lagrangian trajectory model
• Incorporates retrieved parameters from GOES sounder data
• 1-9 hour projections of GOES moisture and temperature retrievals
• RUC background model
• Hourly timestamps
• Provides information on upper-level dryness, low-level moisture gradients, and total thermodynamic energy
Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment
Aviation Weather Testbed2011 Summer Experiment• Aviation Weather Impact Graphics• Aviation Weather Impact Graphics
Highlight important weather features for air traffic management for 18z and 00z for Golden Triangle
Highlight areas of 30% and 60% probability of exceeding comp. reflectivity ≥ 40 dBZ and echo tops ≥ 37 kft from 18Z to 00Z for the Golden Triangle
Aviation Weather TestbedDecision Support: Traffic Flow Management
Aviation Weather TestbedDecision Support: Traffic Flow Management
• Support National Airspace Traffic Flow Management• Mitigate the impacts of weather phenomenon including
convection, icing, turbulence, and volcanic ash
• “3-hour” Tarmac Rule• Congressional interest in flight delays raised due to 2007
performance, NextGen WX supported to mitigate future delays
• Support Operational Bridging Activities• Filling the gap between strategic planning and tactical
planning (2 hours) by implementing a suite of forecasting and communication tools
• Merging the understanding of atmospheric conditions and impact on the National Air Space (NAS) with innovative forecasting techniques and communication tools
• Support National Airspace Traffic Flow Management• Mitigate the impacts of weather phenomenon including
convection, icing, turbulence, and volcanic ash
• “3-hour” Tarmac Rule• Congressional interest in flight delays raised due to 2007
performance, NextGen WX supported to mitigate future delays
• Support Operational Bridging Activities• Filling the gap between strategic planning and tactical
planning (2 hours) by implementing a suite of forecasting and communication tools
• Merging the understanding of atmospheric conditions and impact on the National Air Space (NAS) with innovative forecasting techniques and communication tools
Operational Bridging Operational Bridging
Operational BridgingOperational Bridging
• Reconcile multiple sources of weather to evolve the CCFP concept: maintain collaboration
• Demonstrate NextGen weather concepts
• Human Over The Loop of automation-driven forecasts
• Single Authoritative Source
• Focus on evolving forecast from strategic to tactical time frames
• Aviation application of Decision Support Services
• Reconcile multiple sources of weather to evolve the CCFP concept: maintain collaboration
• Demonstrate NextGen weather concepts
• Human Over The Loop of automation-driven forecasts
• Single Authoritative Source
• Focus on evolving forecast from strategic to tactical time frames
• Aviation application of Decision Support Services
Winter Weather DashboardWinter Weather Dashboard
Requests/Suggestions/Wish ListRequests/Suggestions/Wish List
• Increased demand for high-resolution models
• Microphysics upgrades• CI products (application of GOES-R derived
products)• Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity
• Mine for aviation impact, aviation-related variables• Ceiling, visibility, turbulence, wind shear, convection• History variables, interrogate model at each time-step
• HRRR-E• Details provided for SREF upgrade• Frequent HRRR outages
• Increased demand for high-resolution models
• Microphysics upgrades• CI products (application of GOES-R derived
products)• Storm Scale Ensemble of Opportunity
• Mine for aviation impact, aviation-related variables• Ceiling, visibility, turbulence, wind shear, convection• History variables, interrogate model at each time-step
• HRRR-E• Details provided for SREF upgrade• Frequent HRRR outages
High Resolution Model NeedsHigh Resolution Model Needs
• Convective porosity, morphology, mode
• Convective initiation
• Hourly max variables, max change
• Reforecasts for calibration
• Ensembles: post processed statistics
• Radar data initialization/diabatic adjustment
• Increased bandwidth
• Faster load in NMAP2/AWIPS2
• Convective porosity, morphology, mode
• Convective initiation
• Hourly max variables, max change
• Reforecasts for calibration
• Ensembles: post processed statistics
• Radar data initialization/diabatic adjustment
• Increased bandwidth
• Faster load in NMAP2/AWIPS2
Thank you!Thank you!
Great team effort:
• Model evaluations (collaboration with SPC/HPC)
• Response to requests
• 24x7 support of dataflow
• Model upgrades
Great team effort:
• Model evaluations (collaboration with SPC/HPC)
• Response to requests
• 24x7 support of dataflow
• Model upgrades