NCCCS Long Range PlansNCCCS Long Range Plans2007-20122007-2012

Meta-analysisMeta-analysis

LRP BackgroundLRP Background

Advanced Planning Funds ProjectAdvanced Planning Funds Project

$8 million for advanced facilities planning$8 million for advanced facilities planning

Long Range PlansLong Range Plans

Facilities Master PlansFacilities Master Plans

Comprehensive NCCCS Capital Plan RequestComprehensive NCCCS Capital Plan Request

Addresses “Fiscal Resources” Critical IssueAddresses “Fiscal Resources” Critical Issue

54 of 58 colleges submitted LRPs54 of 58 colleges submitted LRPs

$64,000 question$64,000 question

Is the LRP going to become Is the LRP going to become another NCCCS requirement?another NCCCS requirement?

Why a Meta-analysis?Why a Meta-analysis?

What is the utility?What is the utility? Identify & anticipate key institutional trendsIdentify & anticipate key institutional trends Used as rationale for NCCCS budget requestUsed as rationale for NCCCS budget request Reveals relationshipsReveals relationships Raises questionsRaises questions Suggests future researchSuggests future research

Trends analyzedTrends analyzed Population TrendsPopulation Trends Enrollment TrendsEnrollment Trends Fastest Growing/Highest Demand ProgramsFastest Growing/Highest Demand Programs

Population TrendsPopulation Trends

CC Benefits ReportsCC Benefits Reports

All 58 collegesAll 58 colleges

2007-20132007-2013

Eighteen 5-year age groupsEighteen 5-year age groups

Top five fastest growing age groupsTop five fastest growing age groups

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58

Projected TOTAL POPULATION Increases 2007-13

Southeastern CC

Haywood CC

Coastal Carolina CC Mitchell CC

Actual Total Population Increases 2001-06: 8.12%

Median: 7.5%

Minimum: -3% Maximum: 100%

Top 5 Fastest SegmentsTop 5 Fastest Segments

Identified top 5 from each collegeIdentified top 5 from each college

Assigned values of 1-5Assigned values of 1-5

1=First Fastest Growing Age Segment1=First Fastest Growing Age Segment

5=Fifth Fastest Growing Age Segment5=Fifth Fastest Growing Age Segment

Averaged rankings across all colleges & Averaged rankings across all colleges & segmentssegments

N=58N=58

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20 to24 yrs

60 to64 yrs

65 to69 yrs

55 to59 yrs

Under5 yrs

# of Colleges rankingGroup among top 5

Composite Rankingacross all Colleges

4844

52

40

30

2.2 2.3 2.5 3.3 3.5

Fastest Growing Age Groups 2007-13

Top 5 Fastest Growing Age Top 5 Fastest Growing Age SegmentsSegments

1.1. 20-24 yrs20-24 yrs48 colleges 2.2 composite score48 colleges 2.2 composite score

2.2. 60-64 yrs60-64 yrs44 colleges 2.3 composite score44 colleges 2.3 composite score

3.3. 65-69 yrs65-69 yrs52 colleges 2.5 composite score52 colleges 2.5 composite score

4.4. 55-59 yrs55-59 yrs40 colleges 3.3 composite score40 colleges 3.3 composite score

5.5. Under 5 yrsUnder 5 yrs30 colleges 3.5 composite score30 colleges 3.5 composite score

Implications?Implications?

Continued NC population growthContinued NC population growth

Opposite ends of the age spectrumOpposite ends of the age spectrum

Challenges?Challenges? Different generationsDifferent generations Different types of community demandsDifferent types of community demands Diverse educational needsDiverse educational needs

Enrollment TrendsEnrollment Trends

LRP Projection MethodsLRP Projection Methods Method 1: 5-yr average percent share of System FTEMethod 1: 5-yr average percent share of System FTE Method 2: 5-yr average plus growth factorMethod 2: 5-yr average plus growth factor Method 3: headcount conversion factorMethod 3: headcount conversion factor Locally developed model including assumptionsLocally developed model including assumptions

Five colleges used locally developed model; Five colleges used locally developed model; Remainder split between Methods 1 & 2Remainder split between Methods 1 & 2

N = 58 collegesN = 58 colleges

Five-year period: 2007-12Five-year period: 2007-12

Submitted for review to colleges Submitted for review to colleges

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Years

FTE

Curriculum FTE Con Ed FTE Basic Skills FTE Total FTE

21%

24%

26%

-4%

Actual FTE Enrollment Increases 2001-06

Projected FTE Enrollment Increases 2007-12

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Minimum Median Maximum

Curriculum Con Ed Basic Skills Total FTE

18%

17%

10%

15%

4% 57%

61%-11%

100%1%

57%3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57

TOTAL Projected FTE Enrollment Increases 2007-12

Median: 18% South Piedmont CCWayne CC

Randolph CC

Lenoir CC

Minimum: 4% Maximum: 57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57

Projected CURRICULUM FTE Enrollment Increases 2007-12

Davidson County CC

Wilson CC

Stanly CCJames Sprunt CC

Median: 17%

Minimum: 3% Maximum: 57%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57

Projected CON ED FTE Enrollment Increases 2007-12

South Piedmont CCHaywood CC

Coastal Carolina CC

Durham Tech CC

Median: 15%

Minimum: 1% Maximum: 100%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57

Projected BASIC SKILLS FTE Enrollment Increases 2007-12

Wilson CCJames Sprunt CC

Tri-County CC

Beaufort County CC

Median: 10%

Minimum: -11% Maximum: 61%

Implications?Implications?

Median projections are modestMedian projections are modestPredictionsPredictions Greater increase than past 5 year periodGreater increase than past 5 year period Greater increase in Con EdGreater increase in Con Ed

QuestionsQuestions Basic Skills?Basic Skills?

Intervening factorsIntervening factors Increasing energy costsIncreasing energy costs Increasing unemploymentIncreasing unemployment

Fastest Growing, Highest Demand Fastest Growing, Highest Demand ProgramsPrograms

Qualitative data analysisQualitative data analysis

By college developed a list of the By college developed a list of the programs mentioned in Key Implications programs mentioned in Key Implications sections of each LRPsections of each LRP

Fastest growing or highest demandFastest growing or highest demand

Developed & then categorized programs Developed & then categorized programs by a program schemaby a program schema

N=50N=50

0 10 20 30 40 50

Health-related

Occupational Trades

College Transfer

HS to CollegeTransition

ABE/GED

First Responders

Teacher Education

Service-provision

ESL

Business

Entrprenuership

CIS & Tech Training

Environmental

Distance Learning

Manufacturing

Biotech ProgramsPrograms mentioned most often in LRP Key Implications Sections

10%

14%

14%

16%

18%

20%

24%

28%

34%

36%

36%

36%

40%

48%

68%

88%

5

7

7

8

9

10

12

14

17

18

18

18

20

24

34

44

Top five program categoriesTop five program categories

Health-related (88%)Health-related (88%)

Occupational Trades: construction, Occupational Trades: construction, transportation, auto mechanics, real estate transportation, auto mechanics, real estate (68%)(68%)

College transfer (48%)College transfer (48%)

High school to college transition (40%)High school to college transition (40%)

ABE/GED (36%)ABE/GED (36%)

First responders: BLET, EMT, Fire (36%)First responders: BLET, EMT, Fire (36%)

Teacher education (36%)Teacher education (36%)

Implications?Implications?

Cost of health programsCost of health programs

Continuing importance of “technical” Continuing importance of “technical” programsprograms

Evidence of education’s importance in the Evidence of education’s importance in the Knowledge EconomyKnowledge Economy

Basic Skills FTE projection vs. anticipated Basic Skills FTE projection vs. anticipated growth of ABE/GED programminggrowth of ABE/GED programming

Questions?Questions?

System UpdateSystem Update

Organizational changesOrganizational changes

Strategic EmphasesStrategic Emphases

Organizational ChangesOrganizational Changes

Strategic Planning in President’s OfficeStrategic Planning in President’s Office

Research & Reports in the Exec VP OfficeResearch & Reports in the Exec VP Office

Data Warehouse remains under Dr. Data Warehouse remains under Dr. Williams but is splitWilliams but is split Direct technical questions to Rick NewsomeDirect technical questions to Rick Newsome Data needs to Terri ShelwoodData needs to Terri Shelwood

Strategic EmphasesStrategic Emphases

1.1. Foster “system simplification” and Foster “system simplification” and facilitate colleges to be nimble, facilitate colleges to be nimble, effective, efficient, and accountable.effective, efficient, and accountable.

2.2. Enhance completion rates and Enhance completion rates and bridges between programs.bridges between programs.

3.3. Foster opportunities and clearer Foster opportunities and clearer pathways for low-income students.pathways for low-income students.

4.4. Expand health care programs.Expand health care programs.

Strategic EmphasesStrategic Emphases

5.5. Reenergize technical education.Reenergize technical education.6.6. Develop stronger training Develop stronger training

infrastructure and focused infrastructure and focused partnerships to enhance economic partnerships to enhance economic development.development.

7.7. Support drop-out prevention and Support drop-out prevention and increase outreach, awareness and increase outreach, awareness and college-readiness of middle and high college-readiness of middle and high school students.school students.

Strategic EmphasesStrategic Emphases

8.8. Enhance 2+2 partnerships through Enhance 2+2 partnerships through distance education and provide focus distance education and provide focus to strategic workforce areas of to strategic workforce areas of teachers, nurses, and engineers.teachers, nurses, and engineers.

9.9. Focus on utility of technology to Focus on utility of technology to enhance student learning and enhance student learning and customer service and promote customer service and promote economies of scale with educational economies of scale with educational partners.partners.

Strategic EmphasesStrategic Emphases

10.10. Foster community college champions Foster community college champions and increase CC awareness.and increase CC awareness.