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RFNC REPORT: 2020 NC HOUSE RACES TO WATCH

NC HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 2020 is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal legislative elections in North Carolina history. Democrats have a clear path to win majorities in both chambers of the legislature after historic pickups last cycle broke Republican supermajorities. With a decennial census and subsequent redistricting coming up, control of the legislature will impact not only the next two years, but also the next decade of North Carolina policy. Competitive races for Governor and a US Senate seat are gaining significant media attention and the state looks to once again be a key presidential battleground. In totality, these races represent a major change from last cycle’s blue moon election with no top of the ticket races.

This report highlights the 27 House and 14 Senate districts most likely to be competitive this cycle. This assessment incorporates candidate fundraising information where available, detailed analysis of new legislative districts (including past Democratic performance and demographic information), and other qualitative data about each candidate. Expect the list to shift as the election approaches and new information becomes available.

These are analyses, not endorsements: these are races that could be competitive in the general election, but this report shouldn't be taken as an indication of support of any one candidate over another.

Below, take a closer look at the 27 House races to watch, 12 of which would be Democratic pickups and 13 of which would be Republican pickups. Democrats need to pick up a net 6 seats to win a majority in the House.

NOTE: Some candidates are not pictured below because, after a reasonable search, we concluded there were no publicly available photos online. Campaign finance information in this report covers the 2019 reporting period from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2019. Candidates missing campaign finance information below had not reported to NCSBE at the time this report was published. We will update this report when new campaign finance data becomes available this spring. Visit our website at realfactsnc.com for regular updates.

COMPETITIVE DISTRICTS Amount Raised Cash on Hand

HOUSE DISTRICT 1Incumbent Ed Goodwin, former state ferry director and Chowan County Commissioner, will have an uphill climb to hold onto his seat in 2020. Democrat Emily Bunch Nicholson will challenge Goodwin. Nicholson

$0 $0

Goodwin$13,787.14 $9,980.40

HOUSE DISTRICT 2Incumbent Republican Larry Yarborough will try to hold onto his seat. Democrat Cindy DePorter, an experienced public servant and clinical social worker, will try to unseat Yarborough. DePorter

$5,650n/a

Yarborough $500

$30,501.26

Republican

Democrat

Open

Goodwin

Russell

Queen

Yarborough

Humphrey

Jones

Davis

John Everitt

Batch

von Haefen

Farmer-Butter�eld

Szoka

Floyd

Graham

Sauls

Hard

ister Ross

Pittman

Clark

Hunt

Lofton

Harris

19

82

74

2

HOUSE DISTRICT 9Republican Perrin Jones, a doctor, was appointed to replace Greg Murphy in September following his election to Congress. He’ll either face Democrat Brian Farkas, a Pitt County native, or Democrat Jake Hochard, an ECU professor.

Farkas $40,423

$36,973.83

Hochard $12,071.04$1,959.97

Jones $132,932.26$121,022.75

HOUSE DISTRICT 12Democrats Lenton Brown, Deonko Brewer, and Virginia Cox-Daugherty are all seeking to unseat one-term Incumbent Republican Chris Humphrey in this redrawn district.

Brown $140

$0

Brewer Humphrey $25,905

$25,814.70

Cox-Daugherty

HOUSE DISTRICT 19This seat, which covers parts of Brunswick and New Hanover counties, is now open following the court mandate. Democrat Marcia Morgan, a retired U.S. Army Colonel, educator, and former Head Start teacher, is seeking election in this district. She will face Democrat James Dawkins in a primary and the winner will face either Republican David Perry who ran for the seat last year as a Libertarian, or Republican Charlie Miller, a sheriff’s deputy and Brunswick County school board member.

Morgan $47,094.25$25,930.02

Dawkins $1,606.30

$313.81

Perry $1,446.65

$198.35

Miller $6,500$6,500

HOUSE DISTRICT 20Incumbent Republican Ted Davis now lives in this redrawn New Hanover county district. He is double-bunked with Republican Holly Grange, who is running for governor and won’t be seeking re-election to the House. Davis must overcome a primary challenge from Republican Justin LaNasa before he can face Democrat Adam Ericson.

Ericson $100

$65.06

Davis $36,445.26$30,812.22

LaNasa $500$360

HOUSE DISTRICT 24Incumbent Democrat Jean Farmer-Butterfield faces a primary challenge from Democrat John McNeil and the winner will face Republican Mick Rankin. Farmer-Butterfield

$2,140$2,179.37

McNeil Rankin $328.67

$160

Amount Raised Cash on Hand

3

HOUSE DISTRICT 35Incumbent Democrat Terence Everitt, an attorney, will seek reelection to this Wake county seat. Everitt defeated Republican Chris Malone in a competitive 2018 race and this year Republicans Alma Peters and Fred Von Canon will compete to try to take this seat back for the GOP. A Libertarian candidate has also filed for this seat.

Everitt $57,947.62$22,394.53

Von Canon $140

$0

HOUSE DISTRICT 36Incumbent Democrat Julie von Haefen, former Wake County PTA Council President, will seek another term representing this Wake county district. Von Haefen defeated powerful Republican Nelson Dollar in 2018. Republicans Kim Coley, a small businesswoman, and Gil Pagan, founder and CEO of a sales outsourcing company, will attempt to take this seat back for the GOP. A Libertarian also filed for this seat.

von Haefen $46,982.47$31,506.41

Coley $15,749.60$15,748.30

Pagan $296.17

$100

HOUSE DISTRICT 37Four people want to unseat incumbent Democrat Sydney Batch who is seeking another term in the House after defeating Republican John Adcock in 2018 in a close, highly contested race. Republican Erin Paré, a military spouse and local business owner, Republican Jeff Moore, a conservative blogger and failed Congressional candidate and Anna Powell, a Fuquay-Varina realtor, are vying to challenge Batch. A Libertarian candidate is also seeking this seat.

Batch $102,380.36$83,956.16

Paré $18,281.55$15,529.13

Powell $1,265.01$1,224.71

Moore

HOUSE DISTRICT 40Incumbent Democrat Joe John will seek another term in his Wake House seat. John is a former judge who has been a key voice in fighting against Republican efforts to politicize the courts, one of NC’s biggest emerging issues. Republican Gerard Falzon will try to unseat John.

John $28,860.97$12,777.95

Falzon $140

$0

HOUSE DISTRICT 43Incumbent Democrat Elmer Floyd faces a primary challenge from Democrat Dr. Kimberly Hardy, a social work professor at Fayetteville State University. The winner will face either Republican Clarence Goins or Diane Wheatley in a tough race in this redrawn Cumberland county district.

Floyd $13,684.52$28,117.19

Hardy Goins $1,640$1,500

Wheatley $50,140

$49,972.37

HOUSE DISTRICT 45Incumbent Republican John Szoka, a mortgage lender who has risen through Republican ranks in the House, is seeking another term representing this Cumberland county district. Democrats Frances Vinell Jackson and Keith Byrd are vying to challenge Szoka. Jackson is a Fayetteville native, long-time public servant, and local magistrate.

Jackson $53$50

Szoka $124,151.95$104,885.36

Amount Raised Cash on Hand

4

HOUSE DISTRICT 47Incumbent Democrat Charles Graham will seek another term in this redrawn House district in Robeson county. He faces a strong challenge from Republican Olivia Oxendine, a former member of the NC Board of Education and Robeson County Board of Elections.

Graham $2,000

$2,678.60

Oxendine

HOUSE DISTRICT 51Incumbent Republican John Sauls returned to the House in 2016 after a previous stint from 2003 to 2007 when he joined the coalition of rebel Republicans who voted for Democrat Jim Black for the co-speakership. Black was later indicted for corruption. He’ll seek another term representing Harnett and Lee counties. Democrat Jason Cain, a ten-year Army veteran, public servant and adjunct professor at Wake Tech Community College, will challenge Sauls in this competitive district.

Cain $990$850

Sauls $39,945.14$54,995.98

HOUSE DISTRICT 59Incumbent Republican Jon Hardister, a Guilford county native known for “caving when it counts,” will seek another term representing eastern Guilford county. He faces a primary challenge from Republican Allen Chappell. The winner will face Democrat Nicole Quick.

Quick $24,887.14$19,536.67

Hardister $62,583.37$8,099.82

HOUSE DISTRICT 63Incumbent Republican Steve Ross will seek another term in this redrawn Alamance county district. Ross won by a narrow margin in 2018 and faces Democrat Ricky Hurtado in 2020. Hurtado is a first-generation college graduate and Morehead-Cain Scholar who is now a professor at UNC-Chapel Hill.

Hurtado $51,669.51$11,671.45

Ross $10,885.87$4,175.98

HOUSE DISTRICT 66Democrat Scott Brewer was appointed to replace Ken Goodman earlier in 2018 following Goodman’s appointment to a statewide commission. Republicans Ben Moss and Joey Davis will face off in a primary before challenging Brewer.

Brewer $7,547.60$6,220.04

Moss $3,140$378.18

Davis $4,749.39$1,914.25

HOUSE DISTRICT 74This seat is open following the retirement of Republican Debra Conrad. Conrad endorsed Lewisville Town Councilman Republican Jeff Zenger. He faces Winston-Salem City Council member Democrat Dan Besse. Besse

$52,623.89$34,888.30

Zenger $525

$383.70

Amount Raised Cash on Hand

5

HOUSE DISTRICT 82Five candidates are seeking this seat left open by 19-year incumbent Linda Johnson’s retirement. Democrats Aimy Steele, a school principal, and William Pilkington, a former health care exec, face off for their party’s nomination. Republicans William Hamby, a former Judge, Parish Moffit, who received Johnson’s endorsement, and Kristin Baker, a child psychologist, will vie for the GOP nomination.

Steele $73,383.60$21,144.03

Pilkington $0$0

Hamby $303.89

$100

Baker $12,029$11,294

Moffitt $3,348.23$2,543.55

HOUSE DISTRICT 83Incumbent Republican Larry Pittman is mostly known for making controversial statements, including comments that mass school shootings are a conspiracy by Socialist Democrats on a post misidentifying the Parkland shooting suspect. Last year he compared President Abraham Lincoln to Hitler. Pittman faces a primary challenge from attorney Jay White. The winner will face Democrat Gail Young.

Young $52,028.23$51,231.52

Pittman $19,929

$13,972.03

White $4,895.20$4,657.47

HOUSE DISTRICT 93Incumbent Democrat Ray Russell, a college professor who runs the popular weather blog “Ray’s Weather” that was named “Business of the Year” by the Boone Chamber in 2016, is seeking another term representing this Ashe and Watauga county district. He faces a primary challenge from Democrat Turner Doolittle, a student at App State. The winner will face Republican Ray Pickett.

Russell $38,732.74$23,106.77

Pickett

HOUSE DISTRICT 98Incumbent Democrat Christy Clark is a small business owner who is an active community leader, serving as the North Carolina Chapter Leader of Moms Demand Action. She’ll face a rematch with Republican John Bradford who lost to Clark in 2018. Clark

$37,809.17$34,356.87

Bradford $66,001.31$72,887.81

HOUSE DISTRICT 103Incumbent Democrat Rachel Hunt, an education advocate, lawyer, and community leader who is the daughter of former four-term Governor Jim Hunt, is seeking reelection to this redrawn Mecklenburg county district. Hunt beat Republican Bill Brawley by fewer than 100 votes in 2018 and faces a rematch with him in 2020.

Hunt $114,408.94$79,440.23

Brawley $11,112.95$14,763.55

Amount Raised Cash on Hand

6

HOUSE DISTRICT 104Incumbent Democrat Brandon Lofton is a local attorney who began his legal career at the Ferguson, Stein, Chambers law firm, the first integrated law firm in North Carolina. Lofton is seeking reelection in this Mecklenburg county district against Republican Don Pomeroy, a Republican fundraiser who most recently supported Dan Bishop’s congressional campaign.

Lofton $37,554.20$45,179.17

Pomeroy $64,838.62$60,056.03

HOUSE DISTRICT 105Economist and Incumbent Democrat Wesley Harris will seek reelection in this Mecklenburg county district. He faces Republican Amy Bynum, an active Mecklenburg County GOP member. Harris

$49,415.00$31,371.89

Bynum $13,655

$8,562.45

HOUSE DISTRICT 119Incumbent Democrat Joe Sam Queen could face a fifth rematch with Republican Mike Clampitt in this mountain district. Queen defeated Clampitt in 2018 after Clampitt defeated Queen in 2016. Clampitt faces a primary challenge from Republican Ron Mau.

Queen $7,533.26$3,845.25

Clampitt $300

$175.52

Mau

Amount Raised Cash on Hand