Navy Global Modeling: Advances and Plans€¦ · 2. NAVGEM Model Development Plans 3. Navy-ESPC and...

Navy Global Modeling: Advances and Plans

Jon Moskaitis and Jim DoyleNaval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA

2020 TCORF / 74th IHC, 26 February 2020

Acknowledgements: Carolyn Reynolds, Ben Ruston, Neil Barton, Matt Janiga, Tim Whitcomb (NRL-MRY)

1. 2019 NAVGEM TC Track Performance2. NAVGEM Model Development Plans3. Navy-ESPC and TC Prediction4. Summary and ConclusionsO

utlin

eDistribution Statement A: Approved for public release: distribution unlimited

Sponsors: ONR, NRL

Thick black line: Best trackBlue lines: NAVGEM 120-h forecastsMagenta dots: NAVGEM initial positions

NAVGEM 5-day track forecasts for Hurricane Dorian as it was threatening Caribbean, Bahamas, and Florida

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Navy Global Modeling: Advances and Plans

Jon Moskaitis and Jim DoyleNaval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA

2020 TCORF / 74th IHC, 26 February 2020

Acknowledgements: Carolyn Reynolds, Ben Ruston, Neil Barton, Matt Janiga, Tim Whitcomb (NRL-MRY)

1. 2019 NAVGEM TC Track Performance2. NAVGEM Model Development Plans3. Navy-ESPC and TC Prediction4. Summary and Conclusions

Distribution Statement A: Approved for public release: distribution unlimited

Sponsors: ONR, NRL

NAVGEM Navy-ESPC Navy Global Environmental Model Stand-alone Atmosphere (fixed SSTs and sea-ice) Prediction of TC track out to 7 days Operational since 2013

Navy Earth System Prediction Capability Fully coupled atmosphere/ocean/sea ice Multi-week prediction of basin-wide TC activity Initial Operational Capability coming late 2020

Out

line

(1) 2019 NAVGEM Track Performance

Eastern Pacific: 01E – 21EAtlantic: 01L – 20L

Sample size Sample size Sample size

NAVGEMGFSUKMET

NAVGEMGFSUKMET

NAVGEMGFSUKMET

Track MAE Track MAE Track MAE

NAVGEM performance in the Atlantic w.r.t. the other global models was the best of any recent year,due in large part to Dorian

Western Pacific: 01W – 30W

NAVGEM had typical struggles in the Eastern Pacific with the characteristically small TCs there

Poorer performance in the Western Pacific w.r.t. 2018 season


NAVGEMGFSUKMET

Dorian (05L) Track MAE Dorian (05L) Track Bias

North

South

EastWest

NAVGEM track MAE was somewhat better than GFS at most lead times, but not as outstanding as UKMET

NAVGEM had very little bias, in particular little westerly bias (not many instances of FL landfall)

North Indian: 01B – 07A Southern Hemisphere: 01S – 27P 2019: All basins

Sample size Sample size Sample size

NAVGEMGFSUKMET

NAVGEMGFSUKMET

NAVGEMGFSUKMET


Track MAE Track MAE Track MAE

NAVGEM performed reasonably well with handful of long-lived North Indian Ocean storms

NAVGEM behind the other models in busy 2019 Southern Hemisphere season and in the overall 2019 sample

WestPac: 01W – 30W

NAVGEMGFSUKMET

NAVGEMGFSUKMET

NAVGEMGFSUKMET

North

South

EastWest

North

South

EastWest

North

South

EastWest

It is typical for NAVGEM to be west of the other models in the Western North Pacific (similar in 2018)

NAVGEM has a substantial north bias in the Eastern North Pacific (similar in 2018)

Southern Hemisphere: 01S – 27P Eastern Pacific: 01E – 21E

NAVGEM also had westerly bias in 2019 Southern Hemisphere TC season


(2) NAVGEM Model Development Plans

Version NAVGEM v1.4.3 NAVGEM v2.0

Status Operational *Ops spring 2020*

Horizontal resolution T425 (31 km) T681 (19 km)

Vertical resolution 60 levels 60 levels

Dynamics 3 time level SL-SI 2 time level SL-SI

Physics updates - Physics-dynamicscoupling

DA updates Hybrid covariance -

NAVGEM v2.0 is nearing operational implementation at FNMOC









NAVGEM v1.4.3NAVGEM v2.0

Retrospective forecast track MAE

Slightly improved TC tracks in NAVGEM v2.0

Sample size










NAVGEM v1.4.3NAVGEM v2.0

Retrospective forecast track MAE

Slightly improved TC tracks in NAVGEM v2.0

Sample size

Modernization of the TC initialization process in NAVGEM and optimization of model physics is necessary to make more progress in TC track prediction. Work is beginning in these directions.


Version NAVGEM v1.4.3 NAVGEM v2.0 NAVGEM v2.1

Status Operational *Ops spring 2020* Late 2020

Horizontal resolution T425 (31 km) T681 (19 km) T681 (19 km)

Vertical resolution 60 levels 60 levels 60 levels

Dynamics 3 time level SL-SI 2 time level SL-SI 2 time level SL-SI


-

DA updates Hybrid covariance - SL TLM/adjoint, new obs

Testing of NAVGEM v2.1 is underway, no TC prediction results yet NAVGEM v2.0 is nearing operational implementation at FNMOC


Version NAVGEM v1.4.3 NAVGEM v2.0 NAVGEM v2.1 NAVGEM v3.0

Status Operational *Ops spring 2020* Late 2020 2021

Horizontal resolution T425 (31 km) T681 (19 km) T681 (19 km) T681 (19km)

Vertical resolution 60 levels 60 levels 60 levels 80 or 100 levels

Dynamics 3 time level SL-SI 2 time level SL-SI 2 time level SL-SI 2 time level SL-SI


- Updated physics


-


Vertical resolution and model physics improvements are targeted for NAVGEM v3.0


Version NAVGEM v1.4.3 NAVGEM v2.0 NAVGEM v2.1 NAVGEM v3.0

Status Operational *Ops spring 2020* Late 2020 2021

Horizontal resolution T425 (31 km) T681 (19 km) T681 (19 km) T681 (19km)

Vertical resolution 60 levels 60 levels 60 levels 80 or 100 levels

Dynamics 3 time level SL-SI 2 time level SL-SI 2 time level SL-SI 2 time level SL-SI


- Updated physics


-


Vertical resolution and model physics improvements are targeted for NAVGEM v3.0

Improvements to NAVGEM TC initialization will be transitioned as soon as possible,even between the scheduled transitions shown here


(3) Navy-ESPC and TC Prediction

Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy-ESPC) Global Coupled System

• Developed to meet Navy needs for global earth system forecasts on timescales from days to months

• Features very high resolution ocean model appropriate for simulating TC / ocean interaction

• Navy ESPC team: NRL Monterey CA, NRL Stennis MS, NRL DC, NOAA ESMF


Navy-ESPC Operational Capability (IOC)

ForecastTime Range,Frequency

AtmosphereNAVGEM

OceanHYCOM

IceCICE

WavesWW3

Deterministicshort term

0-16 days, Daily T681L60 (19 km) 60 levels

1/25°(4.5 km) 41 layers

1/25°(4.5 km)

1/8°(14 km)

Probabilisticlong term

0-45 days16 members

once per week

T359L60(37 km)60 levels

1/12°(9 km)

41 layers

1/12°(9 km)

1/4°(28 km) Operational: Second half 2020

Operational: TBD

• Table shows Initial Operational Capability (IOC) configurations

• Final Operational Capability: FY23 (seasonal forecasts, interactive ocean surface waves)

• Will not replace stand-alone atmosphere system (NAVGEM) due to latency issues

• Stand-alone NAVGEM: 7 min/forecast day on 256 cores

• Navy ESPC: 1 hour/forecast day on 3000 cores


Extended-Range TC Prediction Application: Guidance for JTWC Two-week TC Formation

Forecasts valid for week 2

Based on subjective assessment of multiple criteria in a decision matrix. Model TC Formation MJO Climatology


Extended-Range TC Prediction Application: Approach

Task B) Develop statistical modeling system to produce TC forecasts from large-scale Navy ESPC environment forecasts

Task A) More accurately represent the sub-grid cloud processes in Navy ESPC key to simulating TC formation

Task C) Merge TC forecasts from Navy ESPC and the statistical modeling system and evaluate

Sub-Grid Cloud

ProcessesAtmosphere

Navy ESPCStatistical Models

Extended-RangeTC Predictions

Statistical Modeling System

TC Passage Probability

Low Med High

P.I. Matt Janiga


Extended-Range TC Prediction Application: Initial Results

Anom

aly

Cor

rela

tion

Time Lag (Days)

Bia

s

(left) Anomaly correlation and (right) bias of tropical cyclone days over the West Pacific from Navy ESPC JJASON 2009-2015 forecasts. Courtesy of Phillippe Papin.

~3.5 TC Days / Weekare observed

(4) Summary and Conclusions

The 2019 real-time track forecast statistics show NAVGEM performance lagging thatof other global models, consistent with other recent years

NAVGEM v2.0 (19 km) is planned to be operational for the 2019 NH TC season, offering some slight improvement in track MAE over the current 31 km model

Work is starting to develop, demonstrate, and transition an updated methodology for initialization of TCs in NAVGEM

Navy-ESPC is a new tool coming to operations to provide guidance for TC predictionat multi-week lead times

Extras

NAVGEM TC Synthetics

Plot courtesy Rebecca Stone (NRL)

Synthetic winds assimilatedbetween 1000 and 400 mb

Ongoing experiments- No synthetic observations at all- Increase observation error variance- Reduce influence of storm translational speed on

synthetic wind observations- Only assimilate terrain pressure at center point and

winds between 1000 and 850 mb at inner 4 points

Navy Global Modeling: Advances and Plans€¦ · 2. NAVGEM Model Development Plans 3. Navy-ESPC and...

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