Navigating 5 years of emerging market corporate debt
Transcript of Navigating 5 years of emerging market corporate debt
Navigating 5 years of emerging market corporate debtAberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond FundMay 2016
For professional investors and financial advisers - not for use by retail investors
2 Navigating 5 years in emerging market corporate debt
A main stream asset class Here we discuss some of the reasons why EM corporates have become a key diversifier for your fixed income portfolio.
EM corporates are a diverse asset class
Strong credit fundamentals
Among major fixed income asset classes, EM corporates have been expanding at a rapid pace since 2009 when compared to other fixed income markets. With size comes diversification, both geographically and sectorally.
Average credit metrics in EM corporates are stronger than their US high yield counterparts.
Despite the perception of higher risk in EM, default rates in the EM corporate universe are lower than developed markets.
Over the past 5 years the JP Morgan Corporate Emerging Market Bond Index has delivered a cumulative return of 24.4% and an annualised return of 4.46%. This compares favourably to other global bond indices.
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Low default rates
Performance
Relative size of markets (US$bn)
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500
1000
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Commercialmortgage-
backedsecurities
Asset-backed
securities
EM hardcurrency
Sovereigns
US LeveragedLoans
USHigh Yield
EMCorporates
Source: JP Morgan, 31 December 2015. For illustrative purposes only
EM Corporate Leverage & Liquidity
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Jun 15Jun 14Jun 13Jun 12Jun 11Jun 10Jun 09Jun 08Jun 07Global EM HY Net Leverage (x)US HY Net Leverage (x)
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, June 2015.
Default rates
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6
9
12
15
2016
F
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
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EM US high yield
%
EM avg US high yield avg
Source: JP Morgan, 31 December 2015.
YTM vs. 10 year annualised volatility%
EM Corporates (BBB)
Eurozone IG (A+) Euro Credit (A+) US Treasury (AA+)
US IG Corporates (A)
3 6 9 12 150
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4
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8
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10 year annualised volatility
EM LC Sovereign (BBB+)
US HY (B) Frontier (B+)
Source: JP Morgan, 31 December 2015. For illustrative purposes only.JP Morgan benchmarks used: Euro Credit = Maggie, US Treasury = GBI US, US IG Corporates = JULI, Eurozone IG = EMU IG, EM Corporates = CEMBI BD, EM LC Sovereign = GBI-EM GD, EM Frontier = NEXGEM.Ratings: average S&P rating as at month end December 2015.Past performance is not a guide to future results.
Navigating 5 years in emerging market corporate debt 3
5.44% annualised returns since launchA
Calendar performance (%)
2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Fund 3.30 0.80 2.35 (2.05) 19.12
Performance Data: Share Class I2 AccSource: Lipper. Basis: Total return, NAV to NAV, net of annual charges, gross income reinvested.Benchmark is for comparison purpose only. This fund is not managed against a specific benchmark.
Past performance is not a guide to future results.
A Based on gross returns Launch: April, 2011. Source: Lipper, March 2016. B Based on Morningstar category of Emerging Market Corporate Bond Funds for the purpose of performance measurement.
1st quartile for 1, 3 and 5 year performance amongst emerging market corporate bond fundsB
Cumulative performance
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Sep15
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Fund Benchmark
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The Fund = Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund.The Benchmark = JPM Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index, Broad Diversified Index.Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, April 2016.Performance is shown gross of fees and does not reflect investment management fees. Had such fees been deducted, returns would have been lower.The benchmark is included for comparison purposes only as the fund is not managed to a specific benchmark.
Past performance is not a guide to future results.
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Navigating the marketThe Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund is celebrating 5 years of strong performance. We rely on two key factors:
ProcessCredit selection is key. Our fundamental analysis uncovers companies that can weather political and macroeconomic headwinds through the cycle.
We research around 1,000 companies in over 70 countries including:
$91.2 bn $34.8 bn $27.9 bn $4.9 bn
Hutchison Whampoa, a Fortune 500 telecom and ports operator
CNOOC Ltd, China’s largest producer of
offshore oil and gasD
Grupo Globo, the largest media companyin
Latin AmericaEGazprom, the world’s largest gas reserveC
$596 mm
$605 mm
$1.1 bn$1.2 bn
GT Bank, one of the largest banks in Nigeria
Cementos Progreso, owns 83% of the cement
market in GuatemalaF
MHP, the market leader in the Ukrainian poultry market
Banglalink, the second largest telecom company
in BangladeshG
• Global leaders in their respective fields
• National champions
Figures are revenues for financial year 2015 in US dollars.
C Source: Gazprom webiste, April 2016. D Source: CNOOC Ltd website, April 2016. E Source: Grupo Globo website, January 2016. F Source: FitchRatings, September 2015. G Source: EMC, April 2016.
PeopleThe emerging market (EM) corporate debt universe has diversified exponentially in geography and sector over the past 5 years. To keep up with the expanding size of the asset class we have:
• 15 dedicated EM corporate debt professionals in London, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Thailand; and
• More than 80 dedicated emerging market professionals around the world.
Budapest
Singapore
London
São Paulo
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Bangkok
Hong Kong
Sydney
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Research tripsWe undertake on-the-ground proprietary research to assess the underlying creditworthiness of the companies in which we invest. We always meet the management of the companies we invest in and keep in regular contact, which helps us build good long term relationships and gives us access to the company even in times of stress. Meeting management and making site visits also gives us a better idea of the drivers of the business and helps us understand their corporate culture. Some of the research trips we have done recently include the below destinations.
Peru – Lima
Russia – MoscowBrazil – Rio de Janeiro Turkey – Istanbul
India – Delhi
Chile – Santiago
Nigeria – Lagos
Indonesia – Jakarta
Thailand – Bangkok
Bangladesh – Dhaka
Hungary – Budapest China – Shanghai
Malaysia – Kuala Lumpur
Argentina – Buenos Aires
Azerbaijan - Baku
China – Shenzhen
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Important information For professional investors and financial advisers - not for use by retail investors Please consider the risks
• The value of shares and the income from them can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested.
• Investing globally can bring additional returns and diversify risk. However, currency exchange rate fluctuations may have a positive or negative impact on the value of your investment.
• Bonds are affected by changes in interest rates, inflation and any decline in creditworthiness of the bond issuer. Bonds that produce a higher level of income usually also carry greater risk as such bond issuers may not be able to pay the bond income as promised or could fail to repay the capital amount used to purchase the bond.
• Emerging markets or less developed countries may face more political, economic or structural challenges than developed countries. This may mean your money is at greater risk.
• This Fund can use derivatives in order to meet its investment objectives. This may result in gains or losses that are greater than the original amount invested.
Contact usFor more information please visit aberdeen-asset.com
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