Navigating 5 years of emerging market corporate debt

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Navigating 5 years of emerging market corporate debt Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund May 2016 For professional investors and financial advisers - not for use by retail investors

Transcript of Navigating 5 years of emerging market corporate debt

Page 1: Navigating 5 years of emerging market corporate debt

Navigating 5 years of emerging market corporate debtAberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond FundMay 2016

For professional investors and financial advisers - not for use by retail investors

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A main stream asset class Here we discuss some of the reasons why EM corporates have become a key diversifier for your fixed income portfolio.

EM corporates are a diverse asset class

Strong credit fundamentals

Among major fixed income asset classes, EM corporates have been expanding at a rapid pace since 2009 when compared to other fixed income markets. With size comes diversification, both geographically and sectorally.

Average credit metrics in EM corporates are stronger than their US high yield counterparts.

Despite the perception of higher risk in EM, default rates in the EM corporate universe are lower than developed markets.

Over the past 5 years the JP Morgan Corporate Emerging Market Bond Index has delivered a cumulative return of 24.4% and an annualised return of 4.46%. This compares favourably to other global bond indices.

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4

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1

Low default rates

Performance

Relative size of markets (US$bn)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Commercialmortgage-

backedsecurities

Asset-backed

securities

EM hardcurrency

Sovereigns

US LeveragedLoans

USHigh Yield

EMCorporates

Source: JP Morgan, 31 December 2015. For illustrative purposes only

EM Corporate Leverage & Liquidity

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Jun 15Jun 14Jun 13Jun 12Jun 11Jun 10Jun 09Jun 08Jun 07Global EM HY Net Leverage (x)US HY Net Leverage (x)

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, June 2015.

Default rates

03

6

9

12

15

2016

F

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

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2002

2001

2000

EM US high yield

%

EM avg US high yield avg

Source: JP Morgan, 31 December 2015.

YTM vs. 10 year annualised volatility%

EM Corporates (BBB)

Eurozone IG (A+) Euro Credit (A+) US Treasury (AA+)

US IG Corporates (A)

3 6 9 12 150

2

4

6

8

10

10 year annualised volatility

EM LC Sovereign (BBB+)

US HY (B) Frontier (B+)

Source: JP Morgan, 31 December 2015. For illustrative purposes only.JP Morgan benchmarks used: Euro Credit = Maggie, US Treasury = GBI US, US IG Corporates = JULI, Eurozone IG = EMU IG, EM Corporates = CEMBI BD, EM LC Sovereign = GBI-EM GD, EM Frontier = NEXGEM.Ratings: average S&P rating as at month end December 2015.Past performance is not a guide to future results.

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5.44% annualised returns since launchA

Calendar performance (%)

2016 2015 2014 2013 2012

Fund 3.30 0.80 2.35 (2.05) 19.12

Performance Data: Share Class I2 AccSource: Lipper. Basis: Total return, NAV to NAV, net of annual charges, gross income reinvested.Benchmark is for comparison purpose only. This fund is not managed against a specific benchmark.

Past performance is not a guide to future results.

A Based on gross returns Launch: April, 2011. Source: Lipper, March 2016. B Based on Morningstar category of Emerging Market Corporate Bond Funds for the purpose of performance measurement.

1st quartile for 1, 3 and 5 year performance amongst emerging market corporate bond fundsB

Cumulative performance

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

Mar16

Sep15

Mar15

Sep14

Mar14

Sep13

Mar13

Sep12

Mar12

Sep11

Mar11

Fund Benchmark

%

The Fund = Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund.The Benchmark = JPM Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index, Broad Diversified Index.Source: Aberdeen Asset Management, April 2016.Performance is shown gross of fees and does not reflect investment management fees. Had such fees been deducted, returns would have been lower.The benchmark is included for comparison purposes only as the fund is not managed to a specific benchmark.

Past performance is not a guide to future results.

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Navigating the marketThe Aberdeen Global – Emerging Markets Corporate Bond Fund is celebrating 5 years of strong performance. We rely on two key factors:

ProcessCredit selection is key. Our fundamental analysis uncovers companies that can weather political and macroeconomic headwinds through the cycle.

We research around 1,000 companies in over 70 countries including:

$91.2 bn $34.8 bn $27.9 bn $4.9 bn

Hutchison Whampoa, a Fortune 500 telecom and ports operator

CNOOC Ltd, China’s largest producer of

offshore oil and gasD

Grupo Globo, the largest media companyin

Latin AmericaEGazprom, the world’s largest gas reserveC

$596 mm

$605 mm

$1.1 bn$1.2 bn

GT Bank, one of the largest banks in Nigeria

Cementos Progreso, owns 83% of the cement

market in GuatemalaF

MHP, the market leader in the Ukrainian poultry market

Banglalink, the second largest telecom company

in BangladeshG

• Global leaders in their respective fields

• National champions

Figures are revenues for financial year 2015 in US dollars.

C Source: Gazprom webiste, April 2016. D Source: CNOOC Ltd website, April 2016. E Source: Grupo Globo website, January 2016. F Source: FitchRatings, September 2015. G Source: EMC, April 2016.

PeopleThe emerging market (EM) corporate debt universe has diversified exponentially in geography and sector over the past 5 years. To keep up with the expanding size of the asset class we have:

• 15 dedicated EM corporate debt professionals in London, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Thailand; and

• More than 80 dedicated emerging market professionals around the world.

Budapest

Singapore

London

São Paulo

Kuala Lumpur

Jakarta

Bangkok

Hong Kong

Sydney

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Research tripsWe undertake on-the-ground proprietary research to assess the underlying creditworthiness of the companies in which we invest. We always meet the management of the companies we invest in and keep in regular contact, which helps us build good long term relationships and gives us access to the company even in times of stress. Meeting management and making site visits also gives us a better idea of the drivers of the business and helps us understand their corporate culture. Some of the research trips we have done recently include the below destinations.

Peru – Lima

Russia – MoscowBrazil – Rio de Janeiro Turkey – Istanbul

India – Delhi

Chile – Santiago

Nigeria – Lagos

Indonesia – Jakarta

Thailand – Bangkok

Bangladesh – Dhaka

Hungary – Budapest China – Shanghai

Malaysia – Kuala Lumpur

Argentina – Buenos Aires

Azerbaijan - Baku

China – Shenzhen

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Important information For professional investors and financial advisers - not for use by retail investors Please consider the risks

• The value of shares and the income from them can go down as well as up and your clients may get back less than the amount invested.

• Investing globally can bring additional returns and diversify risk. However, currency exchange rate fluctuations may have a positive or negative impact on the value of your investment.

• Bonds are affected by changes in interest rates, inflation and any decline in creditworthiness of the bond issuer. Bonds that produce a higher level of income usually also carry greater risk as such bond issuers may not be able to pay the bond income as promised or could fail to repay the capital amount used to purchase the bond.

• Emerging markets or less developed countries may face more political, economic or structural challenges than developed countries. This may mean your money is at greater risk.

• This Fund can use derivatives in order to meet its investment objectives. This may result in gains or losses that are greater than the original amount invested.

Contact usFor more information please visit aberdeen-asset.com

Other important informationAberdeen Global is a Luxembourg-domiciled UCITS fund, incorporated as a Société Anonyme and organized as a Société d’Invetissement á Capital Variable (a “SICAV”). The information contained in this marketing document is intended to be of general interest only and should not be considered as an offer, or solicitation, to deal in the shares of any securities or financial instruments. Aberdeen Global has been authorized for public sale in certain jurisdictions and private placement exemptions may be available in others. It is not intended for distribution or use by any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication or use would be prohibited. Aberdeen Global is not registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, nor the United States Investment Company Act of 1940 and therefore may not directly or indirectly be offered or sold in the United States of America or any of its states, territories, possessions, or other areas subject to its jurisdiction or to or for the benefit of a United States Person. For the definition of United States Person, see the current Aberdeen Global prospectus.

No information, opinions or data in this document constitute investment, legal, tax or other advice and are not to be relied upon in making an investment or other decision. Subscriptions for shares in the Fund may only be made on the basis of the latest Prospectus and relevant Key Investor Information Document (KIID). These can be obtained free of charge from Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited, 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen, AB10 1YG, Scotland and are also available on aberdeen-asset.com.

Issued by Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited. Registered in Scotland No.108419. Registered Office: 10 Queen’s Terrace, Aberdeen, AB10 1YG. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. Aberdeen Asset Managers Limited reserves the right to make changes and corrections to any information in this document at any time, without notice.