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The Energy Outlook to 2030: global trends and what can bend them? Alexander Naumov Cambridge, December 2011
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Transcript of Naumova
The Energy Outlook to 2030: global trends and what can bend them?Alexander NaumovCambridge, December 2011
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 2
Global trends
What can bend the trend?
Outline
© BP 20113
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Historical trends and patterns of development
toe per thousand $2009 PPPForecast
Energy use per unit of GDP
UK
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Historical trends and patterns of development
toe per thousand $2009 PPPForecast
Energy use per unit of GDP
UK
US
Japan
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Historical trends and patterns of development
toe per thousand $2009 PPPForecast
Energy use per unit of GDP
US
Japan
Russia/USSR
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 6
Historical trends and patterns of development
toe per thousand $2009 PPPForecast
Energy use per unit of GDP
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
US
World
China
India
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 7
The long view: Energy consumption and fuel mix
Billion toe
World commercial energy use Contribution to total energy growth
% p.a.
0
1
2
3
4
5
1970-1990
1990-2010
2010-2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
1850-1910
1910-1970
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1870 1910 1950 1990 2030
RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoal
* Includes biofuels
*
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 8
Non-OECD drive energy growth, while fuel shares converge
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
OECD
Non-OECD
Billion toe
* Includes biofuels
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1970 1990 2010 2030
Shares of world primary energy
Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear Renewables*
Primary energy by region
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 9
Policies to constrain carbon emissions gradually tighten
Billion tonnes CO2
by fuelby region
Index (1990=100)
Global CO2 emissions from energy use
Billion tonnes CO2
vs GDP and energy
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2010 2030
Oil
Gas
Coal
0
10
20
30
40
1990 2010 2030
OECD
Non-OECD
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990 2010 2030
GDP
Energy
CO2
© BP 2011
What can bend the trend?
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 11
1. The future path of global economic growth
Primary energy consumption Differences from Base Case, 2030
Billion toe
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2010 2020 2030-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20% GDP
PrimaryEnergy
Oil
Gas
Coal
Non-fossil
Base Case
Low GDP Case
High GDP Case
LowCase
High Case
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 12
2. China’s pathway
Industrialisation
Industry share - % of GDP Toe / person
Energy per capita
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 10 20 30 40 50GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 10 20 30 40 50GDP per capita ($2009PPP, Thousands)
US 1879-2009
Japan 1885-2009
China 1913-2030
China 2009
Japan 1870-2009
US 1820-2009
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 13
3. Stronger policy action on climate change
CO2 emissions from energy use Sources of carbon abatement versus Base Case, 2030
Iraq
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030
Base Case
Policy Case
IEA “450 Scenario” *
Billion tonnes CO2
* a back-cast which illustrates what is required to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 ppm from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2010
20302020
5.4 billion tonnes reduction CCS
Fuel switching
Energy efficiency
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 14
OECD EuropeMtoe US China
4. Energy security
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1990 2010 20301990 2010 20301990 2010 20300%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Oil & gasproduction
Oil & gasconsumption
Net imports as % of consumption (rhs):
1990 – 2030 1990 – 2030 1990 – 2030
GasOil
© BP 2011Energy Outlook 2030 15
A trend is a trend is a trend. But the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course Through some unforeseen forceAnd come to a premature end?
(Alec Cairncross)
Q & A
For more detail see the full outlook on our website: www.bp.com/Energyoutlook2030
