Nature Magazine 7285 - 2010-03-04

www.nature.com/nature

Vol 464 | Issue no. 7285 | 4 March 2010

Do scientists really need a PhD?Young scientists at a Chinese genomics institute are foregoing conventional postgraduate training for the chance to be part of major scientific initiatives. Is this the way of the future?

T

he approach to extended postgraduate training varies from country to country. The United States and Europe, for example, have long believed that students need to finish a multiyear programme of postgraduate work before they can fully participate in the front rank of research, whether in industry or academia. In Asia, scientific communities instead tend to value directed, practical research. In Japan, for example, industry accounts for a much higher proportion of the scientific budget than in the West, and managers there often say that they prefer university graduates who they can train in-house. As a result, relatively little emphasis is given to academic postgraduate training. Perhaps the most extreme example of this approach is at the BGI in Shenzen, China the genomic-sequencing juggernaut formerly known as the Beijing Genomics Institute (see page 22). Some 500 Chinese university students have already signed up to join the BGI after they graduate this summer. There they will help to piece together DNA data from an expanding set of sequences for microbes, plants and animals. The students will join a cohort of young bioinformaticians who get their data from the most advanced sequencing equipment, process them on what will soon be one of the worlds fastest computers, collaborate with international leaders of their respective fields, publish as first authors in premier international journals, attend conferences and accept interviews. If Natures interviews are anything to go by, these BGI researchers are smart, confident and, for their age, tremendously experienced. Yet few of them seem to have any plans to pursue postgraduate education. Are these budding scientists short-changing themselves by focusing so single-mindedly on one category of technical expertise in the shape of high-throughput genomic sequencing? Would the slower, less tightly focused training provided by Western-style postgraduate study ultimately allow them to become more imaginative and creative in their research? The answer is not clear-cut. Although external collaborators provide the scientific agenda for most BGI projects, the institutes youngsters work closely with them on the design of the projects,

giving scientific input and integrating the scientific needs of their collaborators into the data analysis. Chinas staid hierarchy and the reliance of its education system on learning by rote are often blamed for destroying creativity, so this chance for self-direction and the assumption of responsibility for a project may well help to produce the dynamic leaders of the future. By focusing on one Nonetheless, the burden of proof for this experiment is on the BGI. Can category of technical the organization prepare its student- expertise are the BGIs workers to meet the wide range of skills budding scientists needed by industry and academia? short-changing Will they understand not just the science and technology of their research, themselves? but also ethical aspects such as the need for data integrity, the maintenance of standards and the protection of confidential human-subject information? Will this group be able to train the next generation, given that both the biology and the technology are likely to keep changing dramatically? The BGI has yet to show how successfully it can answer such questions. It is, however, already bringing university professors in from a nearby university to lecture its students. And it is enhancing its in-house expertise by hiring academically trained biologists who can help to design biologically, medically or agriculturally relevant projects. Given the increasing rigidity and length of the Western academic pipeline which now extends so far beyond the PhD that the average age for first-time principal investigators on grants from the US National Institutes of Health is 42 the BGI model may be worth serious consideration. From one perspective, it is just a logical, albeit radical, extension of programmes such as the US National Science Foundations Research Experience for Undergraduates, which have demonstrated that younger students can usefully participate in and contribute to hands-on research. If the BGI can pull it off, it might find itself a model not only for creative approaches to genomics but also for education and training.

The ratings gameInternational university rankings need to be improved and interpreted more wisely.

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rench president Nicolas Sarkozy seems obsessed with the poor showing of his countrys universities in international rankings to the point where he has ordered Frances science and higher-education ministry to set the objective of having two French establishments in the top 20, and 10 in the top 100. Sarkozy is not

alone: the drive to improve university ratings has come to influence policy-making and funding decisions around the world despite the ranking systems well-known shortcomings. There are a number of such systems, of which the most prominent are the one launched in 2003 by the Shanghai Jiao Tong University in a bid to compare Chinese universities with their counterparts elsewhere, and that launched as a commercial publishing exercise in 2004 by the Times Higher Education magazine in London. These rankings are generally based on composite scores that aggregate weighted indicators, such as a universitys research publication output and its reputation. As many critics have pointed out, however, such schemes7

2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

EDITORIALS

NATURE|Vol 464|4 March 2010

tend to focus too much on research, and pay insufficient attention to other key factors, such as other forms of scholarship and how well a university teaches its students to think critically and to innovate. And the schemes tend to over-reward institutions that have large programmes in biomedicine, in which papers have high citation rates, while penalizing those with a focus on engineering or social sciences. Its also questionable whether the university is even the appropriate unit for assessment. An individual department or laboratory is arguably more relevant when it comes to research. Nonetheless, universities that do well in the rankings are too often happy to trumpet that fact, rather than ask critical questions, and thus give rankings an inflated credibility. Policy-makers and journalists also often tend to take the rankings at face value. This encourages a soccer-league mentality of dubious relevance. Fortunately, a new generation of ranking systems has begun to address some of these issues (see page 16). These systems make an effort to be more multidimensional, comparing universities less on single, aggregate numbers, and more on specific aspects such as research, teaching, and regional and industrial engagement. They have also moved towards comparing like institutions with like, instead of lumping together massively funded universities such as Harvard in the same list as smaller institutions that may be excellent in their own

ways. And, perhaps most importantly, they have begun a long-overdue shift from the publication of simple tables to publishing the databases that support the tables, so that users can do online queries to compare organizations by criteria that are relevant to them. Indeed, whatever the rankings problems, they have made apparent the need for databases of solid information on universities as a tool for transparency and accountability. Governments and institutions can help here by improving and expanding the data that are available. They could also help by redoubling their efforts to come up with still better ways to measure the core functions of universities, including their contributions to the economy and society, and by proposing their own rankings as the European Commission is now doing. Universities must also be vigilant in not allowing rankings to excessively affect their policy-making, a risk cited in a 2008 report by the Higher Education Funding Council for England on the impact of rankings (http://go.nature.com/Ssi6Rr). Like them or not, rankings are here to stay. The challenge for academia is to prevent their abuse, explain their limitations and support efforts to provide more holistic views of the university enterprise. As the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently noted (http://go.nature.com/ Lld7d7 ), in a swipe at rankings, higher education cannot be reduced to a handful of criteria which leaves out more than it includes.

The bigger pictureGeneral science meetings are good opportunities for researchers to broaden their horizons.

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he sight of cities lobbying, campaigning and fighting for the privilege of hosting the Olympics is a spectator sport in its own right. But just as entertaining, to those who get to witness it, is the spectacle of cities hustling to host a general scientific assembly. Indeed, the competition to host the Euroscience Open Forum (ESOF) has become especially gratifying in that regard: the politicians actually care. Such assemblies, of which the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) is the prime example, need a clarity of mission. Are the discussions intended to engage citizens? To allow researchers to discuss policy issues with policy-makers? To ensure that the media get a feast of stories to cover? A well-designed general meeting will allow scope for all of the above, but the emphasis of the annual AAAS meeting seems increasingly to centre on bringing together scientists, policy-makers and other stakeholders in science to discuss issues of broad public import that cut across disciplinary boundaries. However, with family days and public lectures, the outreach agenda is still strong. And the 8,000-odd attendees who attended last months event in San Diego, California, represent a substantial audience for science by any measure. The attendance of US journalists has dropped, at least partly because of the increasingly straitened finances of many US media companies. But for researchers wishing to enhance their awareness of the bigger issues and of other disciplines, the meeting is a gift. The biennial ESOF is still but a stripling by comparison, but attracts8

significant numbers nevertheless the third meeting, held in 2008 in Barcelona, Spain, attracted 2,500 participants, and the outreach events of ESOF have reached many more. This years event is to be held in Turin, Italy. The meeting in 2012 will be held in Dublin, Ireland, which fought a noticeably vigorous campaign for that privilege. The programme of ESOF 2010 (the planning and delivery of which has involved Natures staff) has now been published see go.nature.com/sCUK6G. Like the AAAS meeting, it offers the chance for researchers who are usually narrowly focused on their next paper to broaden their horizons. Of course there are opportunities to learn about interesting science for its own sake from the people pursuing it for example in applying genomics to environmental research, in particle physics, in personalized nutrition and other applications of biology, and much more besides. The recurrent theme of science communication and the media unsurprisingly reflects a degree of angst about the state of relations with those outside science. This includes sessions on public myths that scientists need to work against, about the often contentious role of gatekeepers and editors, about the troubled state of the science media more generally and, perhaps more positively but no less challengingly, on engaging the public about innovative agriculture. Science policy can be a turn-off for researchers, but it has a big impact on research in the longer term. Thus the chance to listen to, and engage with, speakers from political assemblies, funding agencies, the European Commission and researchers involved in policy development represents an opportunity on that front too. As with any scientific conference, the outcomes of general meetings can be difficult to pin down. Nature has backed ESOF from the outset, remaining sure that it is an assembly that researchers and others in Europe need. But thats not because they are Europeans. Its because they care about the future of science.


Vol 464|4 March 2010

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTSGene guardsGenes Dev. doi:10.1101/gad.1893210 (2010)

Transposons, or jumping genes, move around genomes and can disrupt normal gene function. As a result, many organisms add methyl groups to their transposons to silence them. But how does a cell determine where a transposon ends and a proteincoding gene begins? Eric Selker at the University of Oregon in Eugene and his team tackled this question in the fungus Neurospora crassa. When they disrupted a gene called dmm1, methylation spread beyond transposon borders and into neighbouring genes. The resulting mutants grew more slowly. The DMM1 protein interacts with another protein, DMM2, and dmm2 mutants also had excess methylation. The results suggest that DMM1 and DMM2 act together in a complex that protects genes residing near transposons.NANOTECHNOLOGY

Secret codeCurr. Biol. doi:10.1016/j. cub.2009.12.047 (2010)

Light DNA machineAngew. Chem. Int. Edn doi:10.1002/anie.200907082 (2010)

DNA structures can be created to manipulate other molecules, but controlling their activity has been a challenge. Xingguo Liang, Hiroyuki Asanuma and their colleagues at Nagoya University in Japan have now constructed one such single-molecule DNA nanomachine that cleaves RNA and is controlled by light. This avoids the need to add small DNA or other fuel molecules that would accumulate and interfere with the reactions. The DNAzyme is hairpin-shaped, with two parallel arms connected by a loop at one end, and both arms bind to the RNA. When illuminated with ultraviolet light, the hairpin opens, cleaving the RNA. It could be used to regulate gene expression, the authors suggest.

Some fish are thought to communicate using covert signals: ultraviolet (UV) coloration that is invisible to their predators. The idea is supported by the finding that Ambon damselfish (Pomacentrus amboinensis, pictured, top) canELECTRONICS

differentiate between their own species and the nearidentical lemon damselfish (P. moluccensis, pictured, bottom) using tiny differences in UV facial patterning. Ulrike Siebeck at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia, and her colleagues found that, in general, territorial P. amboinensis attacked members of their own

species more than they did P. moluccensis, but that this correlation broke down when the potential rivals were presented to one another in UV-opaque tubes. The authors went on to show that trained fish could differentiate between species using images of facial patterns (pictured, right) that reflected either UV or visible light.

Caught on filmIEEE Trans. Electron Dev. 57, 571580 (2010)

Radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags are microchips with tiny radio antennas that could replace barcodes on consumer goods if they become cheap enough to mass-produce. Gyoujin Cho of South Koreas Sunchon National University and his colleagues have developed a low-cost process that prints RFID tags onto rolls of plastic film (pictured left). The film passes through three types of printer, which lay down the electrodes, antenna and other necessary electronic components. The key advance is the ability to print a tag that is powerful enough to be quickly activated and read by a standard RFID reader. The team estimates its per-unit production cost to be about US$0.03.BIOLOGY

to survive for 400 million years? The answer may lie in the way that Glomeromycota reproduce, by releasing spores packed with hundreds of nuclei. By contrast, typical eukaryotic cells, including the spores of many other asexual fungi, contain only one nucleus. Teresa Pawlowska of Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, and Jean-Luc Jany, now at the European University of Brittany, Rennes, France, used three-dimensional imaging to watch Glomus etunicatum reproduce on carrot roots. They found that a stream of nuclei pour into the spores from the funguss thread-like vegetative branches. They also observed that some nuclei are eliminated and thus never passed on to spores, suggesting a method the fungus uses to screen out mutated nuclei.ASTROPHYSICS

M. JUNG

Old stars call outAstrophys. J. 711, 517531 (2010)

Stayin aliveAm. Nat. doi:10.1086/650725 (2010)

Sexual reproduction weeds out harmful genetic mutations. How, then, have the asexual soil fungi Glomeromycota managed10 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

Mysterious radio signals could be coming from a large but quiet population in the Milky Way: old, slow-spinning neutron stars. As many as one billion ancient neutron stars the remnants of exploded stars are

U. SIEBECK/ELSEVIER

GENETICS

NATURE|Vol 464|4 March 2010 Vol 464|4 March 2010

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

JOURNAL CLUBRobert Lucas University of Manchester, UK A neuroscientist explores the network of cells in the retina. The brightness of ambient illumination varies by as much as nine orders of magnitude from night to day. Many models of the visual system regard this variation as merely an inconvenience. However, these changes in illumination reset circadian clocks and influence mood, sleep and even migraine headaches. So how does the eye measure illumination over such a wide range? Melanopsin-expressing retinal ganglion cells (mRGCs), a recently discovered subtype of the retinas output cells those that convey signals from the eye to the brain are dedicated to this task. mRGCs have their own photopigment, melanopsin, so can respond to light directly. Nonetheless, they also receive input from the other lightabsorbing cells in the retina the rods and cones. Two papers show that the cells linking rods and cones to mRGCs are unusual. A rule of retinal wiring is that those RGC dendrites or projections that receive ON signals which indicate an increase in illumination occupy one retinal layer, whereas those receiving OFF signals are in another. Using mice, two independent groups show that mRGCs buck this trend by receiving ON signals in the OFF layer: David Berson and his team at Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island, and Stephen Mills and his colleagues at the University of Texas at Houston (O. N. Dumitrescu et al. J. Comp. Neurol. 517, 226244; 2009; H. Hoshi et al. J. Neurosci. 29, 88758883; 2009). These data indicate that the retinal networks that carry rod and cone signals to mRGCs follow their own rules. As artificial lights increasingly replace the Sun as our main source of photons, we are faced with the question of what makes a good light for our physiology. The answer depends on which photoreceptors we want to stimulate and so requires a deeper understanding of these networks.Discuss this paper at http://blogs. nature.com/nature/journalclub11

thought to be scattered around the Galaxy, but only a tiny fraction can be easily detected. Eran Ofek at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena and his colleagues follow up on the recent discovery of weak radiowave emissions, lasting hours to days, of unknown origin. The researchers present infrared observations that rule out other objects such as supernovae, quasars and pulsars as sources. Old neutron stars offer insight into the Milky Ways history and, the authors suggest, would be easier to track down if they did prove to be the radio emitters.CHEMICAL BIOLOGY

WILDLIFE BIOLOGY

Lizard back burdenHerpetologica 65, 363372 (2009)

With added sugarNature Chem. Biol. doi:10.1038/nchembio.314 (2010)

Use it or lose itNature Neurosci. doi:10.1038/nn.2498 (2010)

APPLIED PHYSICS

Sound lasers hum alongPhys. Rev. Lett. 104, 083901 (2010)

Since the advent of lasers, researchers have strived to build an acoustic equivalent devices that can amplify and emit sound waves at a single frequency. Kerry Vahala and his group at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena fired a light laser at two micrometre-scale silica drums. The light raced around the rim of the drums, causing the drum heads to vibrate. Once the system crossed a threshold, one head beat with a pure, amplified tone an effect that the researchers verified by looking at how the laser flickered as it exited the drums. Such devices may prove useful in electronics and ultrasound applications.For a longer story on this research, see go.nature.com/UbvNSB

The making of new memories can interfere with old memories of similar events. However, elevated activity in the brains hippocampus during new memory formation is associated with the retention of older, related memories, according to work by Brice Kuhl, Anthony Wagner and their team at Stanford University in California. During the study, volunteers learned to associate pairs of objects while their brain activity was monitored with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The volunteers then learned to associate a new selection of pairs, some of which featured an object contained in the original pairs. After they left the fMRI scanner, the volunteers did a memory test. Those who remembered the original pairs had exhibited more activity in their hippocampus when forming the new memories than those who did not. 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

C. KNAPP

Researchers and drug developers often use bacteria to churn out proteins in vast numbers, but the microbes are not equipped to create glycoproteins proteins with sugar chains attached of the kind that are useful to mammalian cells. Markus Aebi of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Lai-Xi Wang at the University of Maryland in Baltimore and their colleagues have modified the bacterium Escherichia coli to produce mammalian-style glycoproteins. The microbes carry a set of genes from another bacterium, Campylobacter jejuni, that enable the E. coli to link sugar chains to the nitrogen atoms of certain amino acids in proteins. The authors engineered this pathway to generate the same proteinsugar linkage that mammalian cells do. After extracting the proteins, they added enzymes and synthesized sugars to trim and remodel the attached sugar chain, creating the desired glycoprotein.

Studies have reported deleterious effects of radio transmitters attached by researchers to various animals in the wild. Charles Knapp of the San Diego Zoo in California and Juan Abarca of the National University in Heredia, Costa Rica, reveal that the arbitrary weight limit used for transmitters on lizards of 510% of body mass may be too high. They attached transmitters of between 2.5% and 15% of body mass to green iguana hatchlings (Iguana iguana; pictured below) in Costa Rica. Although these did not impede the animals running speed, transmitters weighing 10% and 15% of the iguanas body mass did lower climbing speeds. The animals with the 10%-of-mass transmitters also gained less weight over a month. The authors suggest limiting monitoring equipment for these creatures to 7.5% of body mass.

NEUROSCIENCE


NEWS BRIEFINGTemperature check: The UK Met Office has asked the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to create a new data set of global land-surface air temperatures. By reanalysing existing temperature measurements from meteorological stations, the robust and transparent data set would provide daily or perhaps even more frequent figures. At present, only monthly averages are offered by the three existing global data sets (maintained by the Met Office, NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the US National Climatic Data Center). A WMO spokesman says that the concept will require three years of work and several million euros. Artificial neutrinos: A neutrino beam fired across the width of Japan has found its target. On 25 February, physicists with the T2K (Tokai-to-Kamioka) multinational collaboration said the Super-Kamiokande detector in Hida, Japan, had spotted a neutrino generated at the Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex some 295 kilometres away. The T2K is looking at how neutrinos almost mass-less fundamental particles oscillate between different types, or flavours, as they travel.N. YOUNG/ACE/CRC

RESEARCH

GIANT ICEBREAKER CHIPS ANTARCTICAA giant 78-kilometre-long iceberg has calved off from East Antarcticas Mertz Glacier after being rammed by an even larger iceberg. The 97-kilometre-long assailant itself broke off from the continents Ross Ice Shelf in 1987. Pre-existing fractures in the Mertz Glaciers tongue had left the northern extremity dangling like a loose tooth before it detached some time between 10 and 13 February. A joint FrenchAustralian research group began studying the glacier in 2007, during the International Polar Year. These European Space Agency satellite images showing the glacier before (left) and after the iceberg broke free were released on 26 February.

The principles were called for after the sacking of drugs adviser David Nutt. See go.nature.com/ gUh9AX for more. Climate-panel review: The United Nations (UN) will ask a group of scientists to independently investigate the work of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, following criticism of the bodys fourth assessment report. The unexpected action was called for by ministers at a UN Environment Programme forum in Bali, Indonesia, on 26 February. Full details of the review, and its scope, are expected by 5 March. Research meets regulation: An initiative between two US agencies aims to strengthen links between biomedical research and regulatory science. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced their collaboration

on 24 February. The latest science needs to be integrated into methods used to evaluate drugs and medical devices, the agencies said. The partnership is led by a joint NIHFDA leadership council, and will start with a grants programme for work in regulatory science, funded with US$6.75 million over three years.

POLICYUK science advice: British scientists seem to have won key concessions from the UK government over a draft set of principles outlining how it treats independent science advice. A specific reference to the academic freedom of advisers is likely to be inserted into the principles, and a controversial clause suggesting that science advisers and ministers should work to reach a shared position will be removed. Science minister Paul Drayson told a Parliamentary science and technology committee hearing about the changes on 24 February.12

SOUND BITESWe are sorrythat alerts lasted extremely long and caused inconvenience.

Yasuo Sekita, an official at Japans Meteorological Agency, apologizes for over-zealous tsunami forecasts after the 27 February Chile earthquake. For more on tsunami responses, see page 14. Source: The Wall Street Journal

Indian budget: Space exploration and clean energy received boosts in Indias 201011 budget plans, announced on 26 February. Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee proposed a levy of 50 rupees (US$1.1) a tonne on domestic and imported coal to pay for a national cleanenergy research fund. He also increased the renewable-energy ministrys project-spending power by 61% to $220 million; the space department received a total budget increase of 39%, to $1.25 billion, and the science and technology ministry saw its budget raised 25% to $1.05 billion. Companies were also



NEWS BRIEFING

permitted larger tax deductions on investment in research and development.

NUMBER CRUNCH

BUSINESSGM clearance: On 2 March the European Commission authorized commercial cultivation of a genetically modified (GM) potato, called Amflora, in Europe. It is the first time the commission has cleared a GM crop for cultivation in 12 years. German chemicals company BASF, which developed the potato as a way to yield higher-quality starch, says that it plans to start commercial cultivation this year. The commission also allowed three GM maize (corn) varieties made by biotech giant Monsanto in St Louis, Missouri, to be sold but not grown in Europe. Pharma consolidation: German chemical and drug-maker Merck KGaA of Darmstadt will buy Millipore, the US manufacturer of life-science laboratory supplies, in a transaction valued at US$7.2 billion including debts. Millipore shareholders must still approve the deal, which was announced on 28 February. Asian cancer alliance: Three pharmaceutical powerhouses will create a publicly available genomic database of two cancers common in Asia. On 23 February, Eli Lilly, Merck and Pfizer launched the Asian Cancer Research Group a not-for-profit company that aims to analyse 2,000 tissue samples collected from Asian patients with lung and stomach cancer.

134 m hectares 90%

J. SULLIVAN/GETTY IMAGES

The area planted with genetically modified crops worldwide in 2009, a 7% rise from 2008.

California. The cells are being tested by companies including Google, Wal-Mart and Coca Cola. Blooms co-founder and chief executive, K. R. Sridhar (pictured with California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger) a former NASA researcher revealed few technical details at the launch, which generated huge publicity.

THE WEEK AHEAD37 MARCH The European Space Agencys Mars Express probe makes its two closest approaches to Marss largest moon, Phobos. go.nature.com/wjEfAS

Proportion of the 14 million biotechcrop planters who were resource-poor farmers in developing countries.Source: International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications, 23 February

56 MARCH The fifth annual MIT Energy Conference (organized by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) takes place in Boston, Massachusetts. go.nature.com/ZqUH44

PEOPLEPatent election: Benot Battistelli has been elected president of the European Patent Office (EPO) after four acrimonious rounds of voting among its 36 member states. Currently head of Frances national intellectual property office, Battistelli takes over from Britains Alison Brimelow in July for a five-year term. His major challenges include tackling tensions over devolving work from the EPO to national offices; dealing with challenges to patents on biological entities such as stem cells that appeal to the EPOs ambiguous morality clause; and collaborating on a single European patent to confer continent-wide protection. Unethical conduct: The prestigious Karolinska Institute near Stockholm has dismissed biochemist Karl Tryggvason from the post of dean of research

1012 MARCH The European office of the World Health Organization holds its Fifth Ministerial Conference on Environment and Health in Parma, Italy. It promises to set the European agenda on emerging environmental health challenges, particularly those affecting children. go.nature.com/rLoXCZ

The firms have not stated how much they will invest in the venture. Fuel-cell glamour: Bloom Energy, a private start-up company based in Sunnyvale, California, unveiled its proprietary solid-oxide fuel cell in a glitzy event on 24 February at eBays headquarters in San Jose,

for exerting undue influence over the allocation of funds to scientists. In a 2 March statement the institute said that Tryggvason had e-mailed an independent evaluation committee to advocate for particular professors to receive funds. I take such unethical conduct very, very seriously, said Harriet WallbergHenriksson, the institutes president. Additional action might be necessary pending further investigation, the institute added.SOURCE: BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE

BUSINESS WATCHLower prices for crystalline-silicon solar cells are threatening the commercial viability of companies that make thin-film photovoltaic cells. Thin-film cells, micrometres or nanometres thick and made of materials such as cadmium telluride, are supposed to be cheaper although less efficient than conventional silicon units. But, in 2009, prices of crystalline silicon modules plummeted by 50% from their 2008 peak, converging on those offered by the leading thin-film supplier First Solar, based in Tempe, Arizona (see chart). The global photovoltaic module market flipped from under-supply to over-supply before any thin-film players, except First Solar, managed to get to scale manufacturing, says Jenny Chase, a solar-energy analyst at consultants Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF). She expects the price of crystalline silicon modules to dip below US$1.50 per watt this year. First Solar, whose chairman sold more than 40% of his holding in the company last week, should cope despite the lower silicon price, says Chase, because of its established sales channels and lower costs than competitors. But only a handful of the 285 companies known by Bloomberg NEF to be working on thin-film photovoltaic technology will be able to establish the high-volume manufacturing needed to push down costs and compete with cheap crystalline-silicon modules, says Chase. 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved 4.5 Average photovoltaic module selling price, US$ per watt 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0

THIN-FILM SOLAR CELLS UNDER PRESSURECheap crystalline-silicon solar panels threaten to undercut the thin-lm market.

Crystalline-silicon cells from China Thin-lm, supplied by First Solar 2006 2007 2008 2009

13


NEWS

Model response to Chile quake?Experts debate how much emergency-response planners should rely on tsunami forecasts.Moments after a magnitude-8.8 earthquake rocked Chile this weekend, a tsunami began to sweep across the Pacific Ocean at hundreds of kilometres per hour. And within 2 hours, scientists had determined that coastal communities beyond Chile probably had little to fear. Yet around the Pacific, from Hawaii to Japan, authorities ordered extensive evacuations. To some tsunami experts the response was no more than prudent. Others think that it was a costly overreaction. The warning system worked well in terms of trustworthiness of forecast, but its implementation had large loopholes, says Costas Synolakis, a tsunami expert at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles. Events in Chile, where the earthquake has claimed more than 700 lives, showed the value of a timely tsunami warning. Despite the enormity of the quake the fifth-strongest since 1900 the Chilean Navy, responsible for tsunami warnings, failed to issue an immediate alert. Within 34 minutes, destructive waves had hit the coastal city of Valparaso, sweeping away buildings and people. The number of casualties there is unknown but the Chilean minister of defence, Francisco Vidal, says that without warnings issued by local authorities and harbour officials acting on their own, many more lives would have been lost. Tsunami forecasters were already trying to work out what would happen next. Burak Uslu, a tsunami modeller with the Pacific Marine and Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) in Seattle, Washington, used a mathematical model called Method of Splitting Tsunami, developed with Synolakis and Vasily Titov of the PMEL, to forecast when waves would arrive, how high they would be and how much dry land would be flooded. It was the first time that the model had been applied to a big tsunami in the Pacific. About 2 hours after the quake, the tsunami passed the first of the Pacifics network of monitoring buoys, which recorded a wave onequarter of the height of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. When Uslu used the buoy data to refine the models predictions (see Catching a wave), he found that most of the tsunami energy would pass between Tahiti and Hawaii and continue on to Japan, and that Hawaiian beaches could be flooded up to a height of 1.2 metres. Around the same time, however, the US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) in Ewa Beach, Hawaii,R. CANDIA/AP/PRESS ASSOCIATION IMAGES

Waves caused by a magnitude-8.8 earthquake flattened coastal regions in Chile.

Unmanned planes take wing for scienceLater this month a remote-controlled aircraft is scheduled to take off from the Mojave Desert in California and veer west over the Pacific Ocean. The Global Hawk, a slim-winged, highflying jet, was designed for military reconnaissance and tested in both Iraq and Afghanistan. But this time the plane will fly for science. Guided by pilots at NASAs Dryden Research Center, north of Los Angeles, the plane will measure concentrations of ozone, aerosols and various trace gases along a 15,000-kilometre loop around Hawaii. At the same time, atmospheric scientists hope that the drones flight will usher in an era of unmanned scientific aircraft that14

can probe parts of the sky normally inaccessible to manned planes. During the past two decades, several teams have developed and tested remote-controlled science planes, and NASA already flies the smaller Predator B also of military origin over western US wildfires. Drones never caught on as serious research tools, in part because they could carry so little compared with manned planes. But the Global Hawk is larger and much more capable than its predecessors, lifting a payload of around 900 kilograms to a height of nearly 20,000 metres and covering a distance of some 20,000 kilometres. That combination cant even

be approached with any other aircraft, says David Fahey, a principal investigator with the drone project at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Boulder, Colorado. Scientists dont really know how to use a platform like this, because weve never had one. You kind of have to let your imagination be unbridled for a bit, and then you rein it back in. In particular, the Global Hawk will give scientists the ability to stay in the stratosphere for hours, collecting samples in this key region where ozone is being destroyed. The manned ER-2 can tap the lower stratosphere, but it cant fly as far

as the Global Hawk or remain up for as long, says Paul Newman, the scientist at NASAs Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, who is leading this months mission with Fahey. Whenever you use these planes it always seems as if the thing that you really want to sample is about 1,000 miles farther than you can go. Flying instruments on the Global Hawk isnt cheap or easy. NASA charges the same price US$3,500 per hour to use the Global Hawk as for various manned aircraft. And although staying in the air for long periods offers many advantages, Fahey says that the team has had to figure out the logistics of rotating



NEWS

WHY CHILE FARED BETTER THAN HAITI Quake origins help explain levels of destruction. go.nature.com/OOF7R6

CATCHING A WAVE2 hours 14 hours 22 hours

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS

The tsunami swept along the coast of Chile and out into the Pacic Ocean.

Hawaii was on full alert as the tsunami approached its islands.

Japan had evacuated hundreds of thousands of people from Pacic coastal areas before the tsunami arrived.

issued an ocean-wide tsunami warning. Synolakis contends that the PTWC was divided on how to respond to the forecasts after all, a tsunami triggered by the largest-ever recorded earthquake, which struck Chile in 1960, had killed 61 people in Hilo, Hawaii. But this is denied by Charles McCreery, director of the PTWC: I heard no dissent in our office. The PTWC decided that tsunami alerts should be kept in place despite the forecasts of relatively little impact outside Chile. Many thousands of people were evacuated from beaches and low-lying land in Hawaii and parts of Japan, and Californian beach-goers and communities were held on standby. We were not going to gamble with peoples lives, says McCreery. He maintains that Hawaii had a good chance of sustaining damage and points out that the Marquesas Islands in the south Pacific were hit by waves that were 4 metres from crest to trough. In time, the models predictions would be

vindicated by events around the Pacific. When the waves arrived in Hawaii, they were little higher than the normal surf, whereas coastal communities in northern Japan, 17,000 kilometres from the earthquake zone, faced modest flooding the worst impact outside Chile. Scientists think that this weeks tsunami was milder than the Indian Ocean event because the fault that slipped lay beneath a relatively shallow part of the ocean, and therefore displaced a smaller volume of water. The geometry of the fault and the way it ruptured probably also helped to limit the severity of the tsunami. Had the ground ruptured a bit further north, Hawaii would had been severely hit, says Synolakis. McCreery admits that the PTWC took a conservative approach to what the model was telling them. Well be looking at this very hard over the next few months, and longer, to see what improvements can be made, he says. As confidence grows in the model, experts may

be more prepared to cancel tsunami warnings earlier, he adds. Although serial false alarms can make people complacent about the threat of a tsunami, McCreery says that occasional evacuations can actually increase peoples confidence that the system is working. Jrn Lauterjung, a tsunami expert at the German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam who oversees the GermanIndonesian tsunami early-warning system, agrees that the PTWC made the right decision. If an earthquake of similar magnitude strikes the Indian Ocean region, he says, authorities should take the same action. But Synolakis argues that the increasing reliability of tsunami forecasts allows emergency planners to order evacuation only when necessary. The authorities in charge need to listen to science, says Synolakis. Every ounce of extra prevention is counterproductive as it reduces the overall credibility of the system. Quirin Schiermeier

crews of scientists to monitor equipment during a 30-hour flight. Chris Naftel, who manages the programme for NASA, saw the potential of the military reconnaissance drones in 2005, when the Air Force was decommissioning seven Global Hawk prototypes. Naftel secured two of the prototypes in 2007 and a third last year for free. The agency signed an agreement with the planes producer, Northrop Grumman in Los Angeles, to help convert the aircraft, install new communications equipment, train employees and build an operations centre. During the summer, a team of NASA scientists will deploy the Global Hawk to monitor Atlantic storms, hoping to peer inside them as some develop from tropical

Nose for science: the Global Hawk will gather data during 30-hour flights.

disturbances into hurricanes. Multiple teams are developing other research missions, and NASA is now working on a mobile communications centre that will give the aircraft truly global coverage. With Global Hawk about to start its science runs, support is growing

for unmanned research planes. A report from the US National Research Council last month called unmanned vehicles an extremely exciting complement to NASAs current aerial fleet. And NOAA is pondering whether to develop its own fleet of science drones.

David Parrish, a colleague of Faheys at NOAA who conducts intensive atmospheric research campaigns with a converted passenger aircraft, the P3, emphasizes that manned missions are unlikely to end any time soon. His team loads a P3 with so much instrumentation that the plane, which is designed to hold 8090 passengers, can seat just five or six scientists. Its very difficult to develop instruments with the needed precision and accuracy, yet small enough to fly on these unmanned platforms, Parrish says. He adds, however, that the atmosphere is so big and so complex that there is certainly room for both types of aircraft. Jeff Tollefson15


T. LANDIS/NASA PHOTO

NOAA CENTER FOR TSUNAMI RESEARCH

AP


SPECIAL REPORT

University rankings smarten upSystems for ranking the worlds higher-education and research institutions are about to become more sophisticated, says Declan Butler.Every autumn, politicians, university administrators, funding offices and countless students wait impatiently for the World University Rankings produced by Britains Times Higher Education (THE) magazine. A position in the upper echelons of the THE ranking can influence policy-makers higher-education investments, determine which institutions attract the best researchers or students, and prompt universities to try to boost their ratings. But academics and universities have long criticized what they describe as the outsized influence of the THE and other university rankings, saying that their methodology and data are problematic (see Nature 447, 514515; 2007). Many universities see wild swings in their rankings from year to year, for example, which cannot reflect real changes in quality; and many French universities ratings suffer because their researchers publications often list affiliations with national research agencies as well as the university itself, diluting the benefit for the university. Now, universities and other stakeholders are developing their own rankings to tackle these shortcomings. Rankings have outgrown the expectations of those who started them, says Kazimierz Bilanow, managing director of the IREG Observatory on Academic Rankings and Excellence, a Warsaw-based ranking qualityassurance body created in October 2009. What were often exercises intended to boost newspaper circulation have come to have enormous influence on policy-making and funding of institutions and governments. Several approaches to university rankings now being developed are switching the emphasis away from crude league tables and towards more nuanced assessments that could provide better guidance for policy-makers, funding bodies, researchers and students alike. They promise to rank universities on a much wider range of criteria, and assess more intangible qualities, such as educational excellence. And the THE ranking list is trying to remake itself in the face of the criticism. One complaint is that the THEs rankings rely heavily on reputational surveys, which involve polling academics about which universities they think are the best in a given field. Some argue that these assessments often use too few academics, who may not be well informed about all the universities they are16

being asked to judge, and that there is a bias towards English-speaking countries. In November 2009, the THE announced that the data for its rankings would no longer be supplied by QS, a London-based higher-education media company. We are very much aware that national policy and multimillion-pound decisions are influenced by these rankings, said THE editor Ann Mroz at the time. We are also acutely aware of the criticisms made of the methodology. Therefore, we feel we have a duty to improve how we compile them.

League-table turnaboutThe THE will in future draw its ranking data from the Global Institutional Profiles Project, which was launched by data provider Thomson Reuters in January. The project aims to create a comprehensive database on thousands of the worlds universities, including details of research funding, numbers of researchers and PhDs awarded, and measures of educational performance. The company will also use its internal citation and publication data to generate multiple indicators of institutions research performance, and will build in auditing procedures to guard against misinformation provided by universities. Thomson Reuters plans to continue reputational surveys, but aims to have at least 25,000 reviewers, compared with the 4,000 used by QS for the THE 2009 rankings. It has partnered with UK pollster Ipsos MORI to try to ensure the survey is representative. We are not doing this randomly, but putting a lot of thought

behind it, says Simon Pratt, project manager for institutional research at Thomson Reuters. We want a more balanced view across all subject areas. The THE will continue to rank all universities in the form of a league table, which critics say offers a false precision that exaggerates differences between institutions. But the new rankings will be more nuanced and detailed, according to Pratt, including data that enable institutions to compare themselves on various indicators with peers having similar institutional profiles. Comparing like with like is the cornerstone of a European Commission effort to create a global database of universities the Multidimensional Global ranking of Universities (U-Multirank). A pilot project involving 150 universities will be launched in the coming months by a group of German, Dutch, Belgian and French research centres that specialize in research and education metrics, known as the Consortium for Higher Education and Research Performance Assessment. U-Multirank hopes to focus its comparisons on institutions that have similar activities and missions. Existing league tables lump together all types of universities, but comparing a large multidisciplinary university with a regional university focused on teaching, for example, makes little sense, says Frans van Vught, one of U-Multiranks project leaders and former president and rector of the University of Twente in Enschede, the Netherlands. To identify universities with similar profiles, the project will draw on a sister European

Top marks?University ranking systems have been criticized for giving too much weight to research output, or relying too heavily on a small pool of expert opinions. Shanghai Jiao Tong University Academic Ranking of World Universities 2009 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Harvard University Stanford University University of California, Berkeley University of Cambridge Massachusetts Institute of Technology California Institute of Technology Columbia University Princeton University University of Chicago University of Oxford Times Higher EducationQS World University Rankings 2009 1 Harvard University 2 University of Cambridge 3 Yale University 4 University College London 5 Imperial College London = University of Oxford 7 University of Chicago 8 Princeton University 9 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 10 California Institute of Technology



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by contrast, is largely organized nationally and reflects different cultures and traditions. Its a much tougher problem, says Pratt. University dropout rates in France, for example, cannot be compared directly with those in other countries because all students who pass the baccalaurat automatically acquire a place at a French university. Selection takes place at the end of the first undergraduate year, and not immediately after leaving high school, pushing up the dropout rate. Similarly, the length and content of degrees often vary greatly between countries.

Measuring ideasThats a gap in assessment that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is trying to fill. Last month, it launched a US$12.5-million pilot project, the Assessment of Higher Education Learning Outcomes (AHELO), to develop new metrics for assessing teaching and learning outcomes. The project, which does not intend to produce rankings, will try to measure complex aspects of university life such as the ability of students to think critically and come up with original ideas across different cultures and languages. Although few details are yet available, it says it intends to launch a pilot involving 200 students in a dozen or so universities in six countries, including the United States and Japan. We will be watching the development of the AHELO exercise very closely, says Ben Sowter, QSs head of research. QS intends to continue developing its university ranking despite losing its link to the THE. We will continue improving the methodology and response levels to the surveys, says Sowter, adding that he welcomes the new competition. Other experts say that having more rankings will be beneficial, as it will reduce the undue influence of any one ranking. And now it is the rankings turn to be assessed. The European University Association, which represents more than 800 universities, plans to publish annual reviews of all international rankings, assessing their methodologies and scrutinizing why institutions rise or fall in the rankings. The effort will be loosely modelled on an existing overview of ranking systems produced by the Swiss State Secretariat for Education and Research and the Rectors Conference of the Swiss Universities. The reviews should help users to decide on which ranking data can best answer key questions about universities performance. Any ranking exercise, however sophisticated, is being irresponsible if it projects itself as the right answer to a question, whereas the only right answer is in the hands of the person asking it, says Sowter. 17

Improved university rankings may help students, researchers and policy-makers to make better choices.

Union project, U-Map, in which van Vught is also involved. U-Map is building a classification of universities based on their level of research activity, the types of degrees and student programmes offered, as well as the extent of other important roles such as their regional and industrial engagement and international orientation. U-Multirank will develop indicators of performance on each of these aspects. After completion of the pilots, the two projects will seek philanthropic funding to become operational services, says van Vught. U-Multirank also hopes to overcome one of the major criticisms of many existing ranking systems: that they focus excessively on research output, neglecting the many other crucial roles that universities have, not least teaching. Indeed, the Academic Ranking of World Universities, compiled by Shanghai Jiao Tong University in China and generally known as the Shanghai index, focuses exclusively on research output and citation impact, including variables such as numbers of Nobel prizewinners and publications in Nature and Science.

Rankings that use citation counts do not usually take into account the widely different citation rates among disciplines. This biases rankings in favour of biomedical research institutions, penalizing those that publish mainly in the social sciences or in other fields with lower citation rates. By contrast, both the Thomson Reuters and U-Multirank initiatives will use a variety of normalized bibliometric indicators that take this, and other pitfalls, into account. In place of league tables, U-Multirank will give an overall grade of institutional performance on each of the various indicators it considers, allowing students, scientists and policy-makers to access and combine the indicators most relevant to them, so making their own la carte rankings. They will be able to look at the data through their own spectacles, says van Vught. But as everyone in the field acknowledges, educational aspects of universities are particularly difficult to compare. Research is an international activity, and reasonable indicators exist for comparing institutions. Education, 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

S. JARRATT/CORBIS

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Vol NATURE|Vol 464|4 March 2010

THE SEQUENCE FACTORYThe bold ambitions of one institute could make China the world leader in genome sequencing. David Cyranoski asks if its science will survive the industrial ramp-up.

I

n 2006, Li Yingrui left Peking University for the BGI, Chinas premier genome-sequencing institute. Now, freckled and fresh-faced at 23 years old, he baulks at the way a senior BGI colleague characterized his college career saying Li was wasting time playing video games and sleeping during class. I didnt sleep in lectures, Li says. I just didnt go. He runs a team of 130 bioinformaticians, most no older than himself. His love of games has served him well when deciphering the flood of data spilling out of the BGIs sequencers every day. But science is more satisfying than video games, he says. Theres more passion. The people at the BGI which stopped officially using the name Beijing Genomics Institute in 2007 after moving its headquarters to Shenzhen brim with passion, and an ambition so naked that it unsettles some. In the past few years the institute has leapt to the forefront of genome sequencing with a bevy of papers in The BGIs sequencing room, where thousands of projects will contribute to building a genomic tree of life. top-tier journals. Some recent achievements include the genomes of the cucumber1, the of expensive equipment. In January, the BGI decide whether the BGI is a business or a nongiant panda2, the first complete sequence of an announced the purchase of 128 of the worlds profit research institute. Genome scientists ancient human3 and, in this issue of Nature4, newest, fastest sequencers, the HiSeq 2000 from around the world are watching to see how it the genomes of more than 1,000 species of gut Illumina, each of which can produce 25 billion will strike a balance. Edison Liu, director of the bacteria, compiled from 577 billion base pairs base pairs of sequence in a day. When all are Genome Institute of Singapore and head of the of sequence data. running at full tilt, the BGI could theoretically Human Genome Organization warns: If they The mission, BGI staff say with an almost sequence more than 10,000 human genomes are just a sequence-for-money operation, they rehearsed uniformity, is to prove that genom- in a year. This puts it on track to surpass the will not be remembered. ics matters to ordinary people. The whole entire sequencing output of the United States, institute feels this huge responsibility, says says David Wheeler, director of the Molecular Getting far from the emperor Wang Jun, executive director of the BGI and Biology Computational Resource at Baylor Col- China was late to the genomics frenzy of the a professor at the University lege of Medicine in Houston, 1990s that led to the sequencing of the human of Copenhagen. The stratTexas. It is clear there is a genome. The fact that the country didnt miss In Shenzhen, the egy is to sequence well, new map of the genomics out altogether is thanks largely to the BGIs pretty much anything that world, he says. determined, charismatic and sometimes abramountains are high and the BGI or its expanding The charge that the BGI sive leader Yang Huanming (Henry). As the the emperor is far away. has reduced science to brute human genome project was nearing complelist of collaborators wants to sequence. It has launched mechanization does little tion, Yang and a small group of sequencing projects to tackle 10,000 microbial genomes to ruffle feathers in Shenzhen. Wang himself advocates tried to get China involved. They and those of 1,000 plants and animals as part quips that the BGI brings little intellectual found support from the Chinese Academy of an effort to create a genomic tree of life cov- capital into projects: We are the muscle, we of Sciences (CAS), which secured a building ering the major evolutionary branches. Impor- have no brain. But such comments belie a and a start-up fund of 1 million renminbi tant species, such as rice, will be sequenced quiet confidence, in everyone from the BGIs (US$150,000). Wang announced the establish100 times over, and for humans there seems seasoned management to its youngest recruits, ment of the BGI on 9 September 1999, at nine no limit to the number the institute would like that they can make an impact not just to the seconds past the ninth minute of the ninth sequenced. balance of sequencing power but also in biol- hour. Few moments portend more longevity in To fulfil that mission, the BGI is transform- ogy, medicine and agriculture. This will be a Chinese numerology, says Wang. That Noveming itself into a genomics factory, producing challenge given the significant loans taken out ber, the government issued a grant of 3 million cheap, high-quality sequence with an army of to expand capacity. Torn between scientific and renminbi, of which the BGI got the lions share, young bioinformaticians and a growing arsenal financial goals, even its founder cant seem to to support the sequencing of 1% of the human22 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

D. CYRANOSKI

Vol 464|4 March 2010 NATURE|Vol 464|4 March 2010

NEWS FEATURE

genome. China was the only developing nation the BGI wont say how much they paid for involved in the international project, and it fin- the new sequencers, but the list price is about ished its 30 million bases in less than a year. 3.4 million renminbi each. The purchase, Like those at other major sequencing cen- which was announced on the same day the tres at the time, Yang acquired a taste for big model launched, raised hackles among comgenome projects. While completing a some- peting genomics centres. They accuse Illumina what underfunded scan of the swine genome of making a secretive deal with the BGI while for Danish agencies in 2000, Yang says he only granting others access to older models. decided to do something more significant. Illumina denies such allegations, and says it The BGI launched a project to sequence the has a trade-in programme for those who want rice genome in 2001, using a grant of 60 mil- to upgrade. lion renminbi from the Hanzhou municiOf the machines, 100 will be installed in a pal government to buy 36 state-of-the-art new Hong Kong lab to facilitate international sequencers. The BGI published the genome collaborations. But staff in Hong Kong cost of the indica variety of rice in Science in 2002 more than the BGI is used to paying, and (ref. 5), months before an international consor- will be kept to a minimum (4050 researchers). Reagents cost about 1 billion renminbi tium published that of the japonica variety. The BGI moved on to sequence the chicken6 per year, and electricity for computers and and silkworm7 genomes. In 2003, it sequenced cooling systems consumes another 9 million the corona virus8 that caused severe acute renminbi. Yang emphasizes that the loan will respiratory syndrome (SARS) and released a be paid back. But as the commodification of diagnostic kit that impressed Chinese Presi- sequencing continues to push prices down, dent Hu Jintao. The BGIs reward was to be how the BGI will do this is an open question. made part of the CAS, an honour that came A BGI monopoly in providing sequencing with extra funding, but the academy turned services is far from assured. Aside from existout to have stipulations that didnt fit the BGI. ing academic competitors, private ones using CAS institutes are not supposed to have more newer technology are starting up. Complete than 150 scientists; the BGI had twice that and Genomics, based in Mountain View, Caliwas looking to expand. Yang had to make some fornia, which specializes in human genomes, of his workforce official CAS staff and make expects to sequence 5,000 human genomes in special arrangements for oth2010, starting in April. It has already logged more than 500 ers, stretching the CAS budget It is clear there is to the extreme. No one was orders. happy, he says. The BGIs solvency depends a new map of the The move to Shenzhen proin part on scientists elsewhere genomics world. vided a release valve, luring paying to have microbe, plant the BGI in 2006 with 10 miland human genomes sequenced lion renminbi in start-up fees and 20 million and resequenced faster and better than they renminbi in annual grants. The city is a driving could themselves. But like many sequencing force in southern Chinas factory of the world, centres, the BGI is looking to be more than a with many of its 12 million people producing service provider. Maynard Olson, a genomics the cheap clothing and electronics that helped researcher at the University of Washington in to usher in Chinas economic miracle. Seattle who trained Wang and has close ties The BGI is at home in Shenzhen. Yang wants to the BGI, says it needs to be. Outsourcing to sequence genomes at twice the speed and only works well when there is some scientific half the price of anyone else. And he was eager relationship between the parties. There are too to slip away from some of the oversight in many trade-offs during both the laboratory Beijing. Although he doesnt like talking about procedures and the low-level data analysis to those with whom hes clashed, Yang likes to say commodify sequence data entirely. that in Shenzhen, the mountains are high and Yang says he hopes that collaborators will pay the emperor is far away. half of the estimated costs of the genomes they want sequenced and then publish jointly, but for The BGI gets big interesting projects he will cover 70% or even all With this breathing room, the BGI has grown of the cost if the collaborators lack funding. to employ 1,500 people nationwide, more than For Eske Willerslev at the University of two-thirds of them in Shenzhen, and this is Copenhagen, it made sense. He collaborated expected to jump to 3,500 by the end of the with the BGI on the genome of a 4,000-year-old year. With the investment in new sequenc- frozen Greenlander dubbed Inuk. Although his ers, provided by a 10-billion-renminbi loan lab had the capacity to sequence up to about 50 from the China Development Bank, the BGIs billion bases in a week, he went for the BGIs capacity will grow, but so will costs. Staff at technical expertise. I have a lot of respect 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

MASS PRODUCTIONOver the past decade, the BGI has gone from sequencing millions of base pairs (Mbp) to billions (Gbp) in ever shorter amounts of time. Below are some of the institutes previous achievements.

RICE GENOME RICE GENOME 466 MbpC Coverage: ~6x Sequenced: April 2000 October 2001

SILKWORM GENOME SILKWORM GENOME

480 MbpCoverage: ~6x Sequenced: June 2003 September 2003

FIRST ASIAN GENOME FIRST ASIAN GENOME 3 GbpCoverage: 36x Sequenced: January 2007 October 2007

CUCUMBER GENOME CUCUMBER GENOME 240 MbpC 72 Coverage: ~72x Sequenced: January 2007 April 2009

PANDA GENOME PANDA GENOME 3 GbpCoverage: ~73x Sequenced: March 2008 October 2008

ICEMAN GENOME ICEMAN GENOME

3 GbpCoverage: ~20x 20 Sequenced: May 2009 December 2009

23

N. K GODTFREDSEN/WEN J./EBERHART WALLY, PHOTOLIBRARY.COM/D. CYRANOSKI/A. BRADSHAW, EPA, CORBIS/STUDIO 8

NEWS FEATURE


for people like the folks at the BGI that really can run second-generation sequencing platforms to their perfection, he says. The ancient human genome was sequenced in two and a half months for roughly $500,000, split evenly between Willerslevs funders and the BGI. Willerslev says the BGI was integral not just to the sequencing but to the science. The whole project was started because of an important scientific question agreed on by both Wang Jun and myself, he says.

For science or serviceProving its science goes beyond brute-force sequencing could be a challenge. The BGIs Luo Ruibang, also a student at the South China University of Technology in Guangzhou, New faces of genomics: from left, Wang Jun, BGI executive director, Luo Ruibang and Li Yingrui. turned 21 while at his last scientific meeting. He says hes had trouble convincing other sci- For example, sequences of 40 silkworm strains, would like to expand this number into the thouentists that, lacking doctoral training, he can published last October, uncovered some 300 sands. Although according to Yang, it would be do top-notch science. A lot of the foreigners genes showing the history of breeding and charging at cost to cover computational wonder if Im really capable, he says. Luo and domestication10. Sequencing was recently com- expenses and maintenance, not for the data. Li were co-first authors on a paper9 describing pleted on the Tibetan antelope, whose ability to Wheeler says that the BGI will need conthe discovery of large DNA segments in the gallop at more than 4,500 metres above sea level stant innovation to keep up, and that means Asian and African genomes that are absent in might offer clues to adapting to high altitudes. maintaining its high rate of collaboration. The the Caucasian genome. Ge Ri-Li, a specialist in high-altitude medicine United States has three large national centres Li and his bosses are confident that this youth at Qinghai University in Xining plans to study that can test a broader range of technology, he brigade can piece together and verify sequences. antelope genes related to energy transport. says. They constantly challenge one another It is a new field, says Wang. There is not much Next he will sequence the genomes of Tibetan to improve. They work cooperatively in large experience anyway. But interpreting data and Chinese people, who suffer far less mountain national sequencing projects, and critique one designing experiments are two sickness than the majority Han another to improve production and analytical different things, and BGI staff Chinese. We want to know methods. Single institutions that bank on a Its the Chinese admit a dearth of knowledge in why, says Ge. The final goal is single technology may lose their edge when solution to the latter. We dont know much to make humans more capable the technology goes out of date. about biology, Li says. Liu says of adapting to high altitudes. Yang recognizes the unpredictability of developing the BGI needs to overcome its Research alone is not going technological advances. Asked why he didnt stronger science. biological blindspot, but he is to pay back the 10-billion ren- stagger his investment in sequencers to take supportive of its mission. They minbi bank loan. The BGI advantage of new technology as it appears, he are primarily sequencers, but smart ones with makes some income from collaborations, which says hell just replace what he has when the big guns, he says. account for 40% of the sequencing workload. time comes. He admits, however, that if that The panda genome was, in part, a way to Outsourced sequencing services for universi- time comes too soon, he will be out of luck. show off those guns. As few biologists work ties, breeding companies or pharmaceutical There are plenty of risks, but I admire that, on the animal, its genome is unlikely to lead companies bring in higher margins and account says Olson. By aggressively seeking collaborato basic or applied breakthroughs. But it gave for another 55% of the workload (the final 5% is tions and new technologies, the BGIs ambithe BGI a chance to show the power of what the BGIs own projects). In 2009, the BGI pulled tious approach will no doubt continue to turn many call next-generation sequencing, which in 300 million renminbi in revenue. That is not heads. The bottom line is that the BGI is doing produces shorter individual DNA reads 100 enough, says BGI marketing director Hongsh- something exciting. It is a Chinese solution to base pairs or less, compared with the 1,000 eng Liang. In 2010, Liang hopes to pull in 1.2 the challenge of developing stronger science. base-pair fragments with previous technology billion renminbi. Time will tell how well it works. but at unprecedented speed. This increases New income could come from proprietary David Cyranoski is Natures Asia Pacific the sequencing output thousands of times, rights to agricultural applications. The BGI, correspondent. but for an unfamiliar genome, its difficult to which owns more than 200 patents, has been S. assemble the finished product, says Wang. attempting to do genomics-based breeding with 1. Huang,al. et al. Nature Genet. 41, 12751281 (2009). 2. Li, R. et Nature 463, 311317 (2010). Some thought we wouldnt be able to do it. foxtail millet in Hebei and has other agricultural 3. Rasmussen, M. et al. Nature 463, 757762 (2010). There was also public interest and local gov- projects in Laos. More cash could come from 4. Qin, J. et al. Nature 464, 5965 (2010). 5. Yu, J. et al. Science 296, 7992 (2002). ernment support because Jing Jing, the panda expansion of services overseas. Within three 6. Hillier, L. W. et al. Nature 432, 695716 (2004). whose genome was sequenced, was the model years, the institute plans to open offices in 7. Xia, Q. et al. Science 306, 19371940 (2004). for Beijings 2008 Olympic mascot. And pan- Copenhagen and San Francisco. The BGI may 8. Qin, E. et al. Chinese Science Bulletin 48, 941948 (2003). et al. Nature Biotechnol. 28, 5763 (2010). das are cute, says Wang. also charge for access to its Yanhuang database, 9. Li, R.Q. et al. Science 326, 433436 (2009). 10. Xia, The BGI is also powering more biologically a project launched in 2008 to sequence the relevant projects coordinated by collaborators. genomes of 100 Chinese; BGI scientists say they See Editorial, page 7.24 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

G. ZHANG/D. CYRANOSKI

NEWS FEATURE


Radiation detectors are plagued by false alarms.

Borderline detectionGeorgias borders are guarded by some of the best radiation detectors available so why are nuclear smugglers still slipping through? Sharon Weinberger reports.

T

he radiation alarm started wailing and flashing its red strobe light on an otherwise ordinary day last August as a car tried to pass through the Sadakhlo border crossing. The alarm itself wasnt unusual. This remote outpost linking the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Armenia scans hundreds of cars, buses and trucks every day, and the radiation monitors, housed in their distinctive white casings, are regularly triggered by the natural radioactivity in ceramic tiles, quarry stones even bananas. But the levels of radiation in this car, and on its Armenian driver, were so high that the checkpoint police were compelled to call in the Georgian governments special nuclear investigators in the capital city of Tbilisi, about two hours drive away. Once there, the specialists determined that the car was heavily contaminated with caesium-137, a radioisotope often used for cancer therapy and food irradiation and often cited as an ideal source for a radiological dispersal device, better known as a dirty bomb. But they couldnt find any caesium-137, or proof that the driver was deliberately transporting anything dangerous. So the officials found themselves at an impasse: what should they do? Such conundrums are also not unusual in this part of the world. From a technological perspective, the Sadakhlo crossing is about as advanced as it gets a showcase for international efforts to stop the illegal trafficking of nuclear materials. The Georgian patrol police who staff the station can check passports against26

a centralized database, capture video recordings detectors were an earlier model than the ones of every person crossing the border and rely now in place. But on 26 June 2003, the boron the radiation monitors to watch for telltale der guards closed in on an Armenian citizen -rays and neutrons. Sadakhlo is just one of the named Garik Dadayan, who was found to be many such modern border crossing facilities carrying 170 grams of highly enriched urathat can be found in Georgia and much of the nium (HEU). Although this is far too little for rest of eastern Europe, as well as in an increas- a nuclear weapon that would require more ing number of ports worldwide. The hardware than 10 kilograms the case did confirm the is provided through a US anti-proliferation pro- existence of a black market in fissile materials. gramme known as the Second Line of Defense It also, according to US officials, validated the the first line being the global effort to secure use of the detectors. nuclear materials at their source. Run by the US Others are not so sure. Border policemen Department of Energys National said the detector worked; other Nuclear Security Administration, police officers say [the uranium] You will be able to was not detected, says Alexanthe programmes long-term goal is to protect more than 650 sites dre Kukhianidze, who directs catch the Richard in 32 countries. And US Presithe Caucasus Office of the TranReids, but not the dent Barack Obama, who has snational Crime and Corruption Mohamed Attas. made non-proliferation a corCenter in Tbilisi. nerstone of his foreign policy, But one thing is clear: techsubmitted a 2011 budget request that would nological solutions such as radiation monitors continue this focus, doubling the annual fund- are far from a panacea for nuclear smuggling. ing for Second Line of Defense to more than And Georgia is an excellent case study for why half a billion dollars by 2015. that is. Given the scale of that effort, as well as funding from the European Union for training, it Security crackdown is sobering to realize how porous the defence Smuggling and bribery were once a way of life is. The radiation monitors have had some suc- in Georgia, which lies on a key transit route cess at intercepting radiological sources, as between Russia and Turkey. And this was in the August incident at Sadakhlo. But they especially true in the post-Soviet era, when the have had just one claimed success at intercept- chaotic regime of former Georgian President ing fissionable material suitable for use in a Eduard Shevardnadze left the police chroninuclear weapon again, at Sadakhlo. At the cally underfunded and susceptible to bribery. time, the crossing wasnt as high-tech and the But after Shevardnadze was ousted in the Rose 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

N. HODGE


NEWS FEATURE

Georgias ports and border crossings contain some of the worlds most advanced nuclear detectors.

Revolution of November 2003, the government that replaced him instituted sweeping reforms, strengthened Georgias already close ties to the West, and expanded its cooperation with Western nuclear security efforts. Today, Georgia is widely considered a model citizen in the nonproliferation world. Certainly the officials there swear by their radiation detectors. Trying to track down nonweapons-grade radiological materials without them would be like operating without hands or legs, says Alexander Okitashvili, deputy director of the Georgian patrol police, who watches videos of the borders in real time from his desk in Tbilisi. And both US and Georgian officials agree that radiological materials are by far the biggest nuclear smuggling threat, accounting for 321 of the 336 confirmed cases of illicit nuclear trafficking reported to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna between January 1993 and December 2008. Only 15 involved weapons-grade HEU or plutonium. Still, the monitors have many pitfalls. Their propensity for false alarms is one. And another, paradoxically, is that the potentially deadliest materials fissile HEU and plutonium are not strongly radioactive. One obvious upgrade was to add the ability to detect neutrons produced by the spontaneous fission reactions that occur in any bomb-grade material. The original devices, which were installed by the US State Department in Georgia and other parts of the world during the 1990s, could detect only -rays. The upgraded portal monitors were installed last year and can now be found at every border crossing, port and airport in Georgia. Another refinement, currently being pursued by physicists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Washington, is to equip the detectors with energy windowing algorithms that would give an approximate measure of the energy of the rays. Each element has a unique -ray spectrum, so this would help the detectors to distinguish between real threats and naturally occurring radioactive materials. Researchers also are trying to improve neutron detection by looking at how neutrons are emitted by materials exposed to cosmic rays.

However, none of these technological efforts gets at the much more serious, non-technical problems with relying on the detectors, such as the fact that they are installed only at official checkpoints. Georgia hasnt installed detectors at crossings into the Russian-backed breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (see map), because to do so would be a tacit recognition of the regions independence. Nor can Georgia control what passes across the borders between Russia and these regions, which have long been regarded as smuggling havens. Given those realities, critics charge that detectors are effective only against nuclear smugglers who are too stupid or lazy to go around the checkpoints, or too incompetent to shield the material they take through. You will be able to catch the Richard Reids,Abkhazia R U S S I A

BLACK SEA

South Ossetia

GEO RGIATURKEY

Tblisi

Sadakhlo ARMENIA

but not the Mohamed Attas, says nuclear physicist Thomas Cochran of the Natural Resources Defense Council in New York, comparing the shoe bomber with the lead hijacker in the 11 September 2001 attacks.

Ambitious amateursBut there are plenty of rank amateurs in this game, says Archil Pavlenishvili, Georgias chief nuclear investigator. A law-enforcement official with a chemical-engineering degree, Pavlenishvili heads a small government team created in 2004 to investigate nuclear incidents. He says that would-be smugglers are forever trying to scam one another by hawking red mercury, a fictional substance supposedly used for nuclear weapons. In 2006, we had a case when a Turkish citizen tried to smuggle real caesium-137, he says. He placed the caesium inside red liquid and tried to sell it as red mercury; it has very strong radiation. 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

But for every bumbler there are unknown numbers of smart operatives whom the radiation detectors never see, says Pavlenishvili, who says that his team captures two to three smuggling rings every year. For them, he says, the answer is solid, low-tech police work. In 2005, for example, a tip from an informant led him and his team to mount a sting operation. They caught Oleg Khintsagov, a Russian citizen, in a suburb of Tbilisi trying to sell 100 grams of HEU to a man he believed was a Turkish go-between, but who was in fact a Georgian operative. When arrested, Khintsagov claimed that the blue-grey substance was printer powder. In fact it was military weapons-grade uranium enriched to 89% of the fissile isotope, uranium-235. Even more worrisome for nuclear security specialists is another unknown, especially when it comes to radiological smuggling. Theres a market and something is driving that market, said a US law enforcement official involved in the issue, who agreed to speak only on background. We need to know why people are so interested in obtaining the material. All the detectors in the world wont answer that question. Nor will captured smugglers, as a rule, who typically deal with intermediates, and may not even know the final customer. Dadayan, for example, provided little useful information, and was soon turned over to Armenian authorities. And Khintsagov is still in a Georgian prison, refusing to talk. Not even the Armenian citizen caught last August yielded any definitive answers. The driver told an unbelievable story, says Pavlenishvili. He worked in a radio station, and said maybe because he was dealing with specific electronic equipment, his car and clothes were contaminated. Its not true, of course. But unable to find the source in the car, says Pavlenishvili, we had no legal possibility to arrest him. Instead, the driver was simply let go. Sharon Weinberger is a freelance reporter in Washington, DC. Her trip to Georgia was funded by the International Reporting Project in Washington DC.27

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N. HODGE

COLUMN


Curing climate backlashEffective action on climate requires better politics, not better science, explains Daniel Sarewitz.

A

volatile mix of science and politics has ignited a backlash against climate science in the United States and United Kingdom. The exposure of e-mails from the University of East Anglias Climatic Research Unit (CRU) in Norwich, UK, last November, and the subsequent discovery of errors and distortions in the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), may have little bearing on the overall weight of scientific evidence about anthropogenic climate change. But they have triggered a media and blogging frenzy, re-energized political opposition to action on climate change and put climate scientists on the defensive (see Nature 463, 730732; 2010). The problem? Science has been called on to do something beyond its purview: not just improve peoples understanding of the world, but compel people to act in a particular way. For nearly twenty years, researchers, policy-makers and activists have claimed that climate science requires a global policy agenda of top-down, United-Nations-sponsored international agreements; targets and timetables for emissions reductions; and the creation of carbon markets. But this agenda was guaranteed to be politically divisive because it entails short-term political and economic costs in return for benefits that are long term and highly uncertain.

more pliable and permissive than deeply held beliefs about how the world should work. Scientific understanding of the complex, coupled oceanatmospheresociety system is always incomplete, and gives the competing sides plenty of support for their pre-existing political preferences as well as plenty to hide behind in claiming that those preferences are supported by science. Science can decisively support policy only after fundamental political differences have been resolved.

Good enough scienceThe crucial point here is that no amount of reform of the IPCC, or rooting out of bad science or of scientists behaving badly will begin to correct the flaws in the dominant approach to climate policy. Rehabilitation of climate policy is a matter not of getting the science right, but of getting the politics right. How might this happen? There is no magic formula, but a few general principles seem apparent. A successful climate policy regime will match short-term costs with the real potential of short-term gains. These gains can come from reducing vulnerabilities to climate impacts, and increasing security and wealth generation from energy-technology innovation. Both paths call on the government to do things that most people see as appropriate: to provide public goods and promote innovation. Both paths also allow climate change to be understood not as impending doom that requires deep sacrifice to ensure survival, but as an opportunity to continually improve society. Real-world examples, pursued independently of global or national climate-policy frameworks, range from New York Citys climate-adaptation planning efforts to Chinas aggressive pursuit of advanced energy technologies and markets. With the public legitimacy of climate science under assault, political progress in the United States may now depend on the willingness of thoughtful conservatives to chart a better way forward. But liberals and moderates must meanwhile abandon the claim that the science supports only their way of doing things. Imaginative politicians thus have a huge opportunity to demonstrate leadership. Given the poisoned political climate here, it is hard to be optimistic that they will be courageous enough to seize the day. If they are, however, one thing is certain: the imperfect science we already have will turn out to be plenty good enough to support action. Daniel Sarewitz, co-director of the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at Arizona State University, is based in Washington DC. e-mail: [email protected] go.nature.com/ILx8PC for more columns.

The sceptical conservativeIn the United States, conservatives typically distrust international governance regimes and the United Nations in particular; they hate government programmes that demand major wealth transfers; and they are deeply sceptical of the governments ability to modify societal behaviour to achieve desired aims. The use of climate science to justify a policy regime characterized by these very attributes fuels a deep suspicion of the science. A key opposition strategy has thus been to portray deviation from scientific certainty and highly idealized notions of the scientific method as evidence against climate change. In the wake of the CRU e-mails and IPCC errors, conservative political commentator Michael Barone wrote: Some decades hence, I suspect, people

Nature Magazine 7285 - 2010-03-04

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