NATURAL RESOURCE OPTIMIZATION FOR INTERNATIONAL RENEWABLE TRANSITION BY 2040 Naomi Arnold

Amanda Lurie

ESD. 124

12/8/2014

AGENDA �  Question to Investigate

�  Background (Papers and Models)

�  Methodology �  Projecting Future Demand

�  Projecting Future Supply

�  Determining Future GDP

�  Determining Energy Costs

� Analysis

� Results � Conclusions � Next Steps

QUESTION TO INVESTIGATE

Which countries can be first to transition to renewables based on natural resource supply and cost

consideration as a percentage of GDP?

BACKGROUND: PAPERS �  Regional investigation of renewable

resources and various methodologies �  Korea (Park, N. B., S. J. Yun, and E. C. Jeon)

�  Germany (Scholz, R., et al.)

�  North Africa (Hawila, D., et al.)

�  Global-based supply and demand analysis �  Jacobson, M. Z., et al. "Providing All Global

Energy with Wind, Water, and Solar Power”

�  Cabal, H., et al. "Review of the World and European Renewable Energy Resource Potentials"

�  Cochran, J., et al. "Meta-Analysis of High Penetration Renewable Energy Scenarios”

BACKGROUND: MODELS

Aboumahboub, T, et al. (2010). “Optimizing world-wide utilization of renewable energy sources in the power sector”

Biberacher M, et al.“GIS based model to optimize the utilization of renewable energy carriers and related energy flows.”

Haller, M., et al. "Decarbonization Scenarios for the EU and Mena Power System: Considering Spatial Distribution and Short Term Dynamics of Renewable Generation."

PROJECTING FUTURE DEMAND

Data Challenge •  Lack of data projecting energy

consumption in 2040 per country

•  Usually aggregated per region

Solution •  Extrapolated EIA Primary Energy

consumption per country from 2011

•  Applied IEO2013 growth rates •  Includes all sectors and fuels

PROJECTING FUTURE SUPPLY � Options to calculate supply

�  Geographic Potential

�  Technical Potential

�  Economic Potential

�  Theoretical Potential

Open EI Database

NREL Solar Resources

Solar

Open EI Database

NREL Wind Potential

Wind

EPRI 1978 Geothermal

Energy Prospects

Geothermal

World Atlas Hydropower

and Dams Potential

Hydropower

DETERMINING FUTURE GDP

IIASA Greenhouse Gas Initiative database � Projected 2040 GDP per country � Most conservative scenario selected

� A2r baseline: High GHG emissions, low GDP projections

DETERMINING ENERGY COSTS Open EI Transparent Cost Database � Projected 2040 levelized energy cost per technology � Averaged offshore/onshore wind and CSP/PV solar

ANALYSIS

The minimum of the country’s projected demand and renewable capacity were calculated

This minimum was decreased by a fixed percentage (50%) and considered “allocated”

The remaining balance of unsatisfied demand calculated

Process repeats for the next renewable resource

� Excel model matched country’s demand and supply data

� Allocated renewable resources to fulfill demand

RESULTS: MOST EXPENSIVE RENEWABLE TRANSITION COSTS BY COUNTRY

China 28%

United States 16%

India 6%

Russia 5%

Japan 3%

Brazil 2%

Iran 2%

Saudi Arabia

2%

Germany 2%

Canada 2%

Korea, South 2%

France 1%

United Kingdom

1%

Indonesia 1%

South Africa 1%

Ukraine 1%

Mexico 1%

Italy 1%

Thailand 1%

Australia 1%

United Arab Emirates 1%

Spain 1%

Singapore 1%

Egypt 1%

Venezuela 1%

Argentina 1%

Malaysia 1%

All other countries 15%

RESULTS: WORLD HEAT MAP OF RENEWABLE TRANSITION FEASIBILITY � Percent of GDP required to complete a transition to 100%

renewable resources by 2040 � Majority of countries in the world (139 out of 181) cost

greater than 10% of their GDP to transition

RESULTS: THE BEST AND THE WORST Lowest % GDP Highest % GDP

Smaller, developing countries in Africa and Asia

Small projected demand

Various countries in Middle East and Eurasia

Prevalence of oil-rich nations

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 1.  Ample renewable natural resources exist and can

meet world demand in 2040 2.  Cost is the largest factor in renewable transition

Sensitivity analysis highlights importance of reducing costs

� Learning/experience curves can play major role

CONCLUSION

� High feasibility countries are in developing areas � Low feasibility countries depend on oil economies

Top energy consuming countries have the most expensive transitions

� China will account for the largest proportion �  Needs to balance its growing economy with its

environmental impact on the rest of the globe

NEXT STEPS

1.  Network flow optimization: trade or sell energy to neighboring countries and meet grid capacity constraints over time

2.  Examine energy demand on a by-sector basis: electricity, transportation, etc.

3.  Expand cost accounting with more in depth learning curves and sensitivity analysis

4.  Differentiate levelized costs based on country