Natural Gas: U.S. Markets in a Global Context · 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035...
Transcript of Natural Gas: U.S. Markets in a Global Context · 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035...
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets in a Global Context
2010 Energy ConferenceU.S. Energy Information Administration
Johns Hopkins University - SAISp y
April 7, 2010 - Washington, DC
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010Richard Newell, March 2, 2010 1Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 1
April 7, 2010 Washington, DC
Discussion Outline
• Setting the context
• Demand/supply outlook for 3 regions– United StatesUnited States– OECD Europe– China
• Evolution of the global gas market – Expected trade flows– Pricing and contract issues– Key uncertainties
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 2
Natural gas is expected to provide about 23% of the world’s energy needs
250 History Projections
world energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
200Liquids (including biofuels)
36%
32%
28%
100
150Natural gas
Coal27%
23%
Share of World
50
100Renewables(excluding biofuels)
23%
8%
11%
6%
Total
01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Nuclear6%
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 3
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2009
The largest gas markets are not located in the same regions as most of the world’s gas reserves
N OECD E /E iOECD Europe
North America 2,170
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
161 548
Reserves Consumption
319752
North America ,754
Reserves ConsumptionMiddle East
p
Reserves Consumption
Central and South America
Asia and Oceania2,658 345
Reserves Consumption
267 165Reserves Consumption 495 117
Africa 539 593
Reserves Consumption
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 4
Reserves ConsumptionUnits are trillion cubic feet
Locations of U.S. shale gas plays
U.S. shale gas plays
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 5
United States gas consumption
25 ProjectionsHistory
U.S. natural gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet
20
25
Electric power
15Industrial
5
10
Commercial
Other*
0
5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Residential
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 6
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
*- natural gas used for transport, pipelines, and lease and plant fuel
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2010
United States natural gas imports
30
trillion cubic feetProjectionsHistory
25
30 jy
6%
20
Consumption
Net imports
6%
13%
Other*
15
Domestic supply
Residential10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 7
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2010
OECD Europe natural gas consumption
25
OECD Europe natural gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet
20
25
Electric power
15
I d t i l
5
10
Commercial
Industrial
0
5
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Residential
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 8
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2009
OECD Europe natural gas imports
25
trillion cubic feetProjectionsHistory
20
25 jy
C ti
15Net imports
45%
Consumption 57%
5
10Domestic supply
Residential
0
5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 9
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2009
China natural gas consumption
8
China natural gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet
6
8
4 Electric Power
2Industrial
02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CommercialResidential
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2009
China natural gas imports
10
trillion cubic feetProjectionsHistory
8
10 jy
6Net imports
37%
2
4
0
2
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Consumption
Domestic supply
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 11
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2009
Outlook for global LNG trade
LNG trade expectations as of 2005-2006:National Petroleum Council’s “Hard Truth’s” study
2000 2030
4.8 trillion cubic feet per yearper year
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 12Source: National Petroleum Council, 2007
Increasing gas liquefaction capacityliquefaction capacitytrillion cubic feet
20
14
16
18
20
8
10
12
0
2
4
6
02006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
OECD Europe United States Non-OECD Asia Africa
Russia MiddleEast NonOECDAmericas Australia/NewZealand
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 13Source: EIA Estimates
Russia Middle East Non-OECD Americas Australia/New Zealand
Over the past 5 years, EIA has significantly lowered its projection of LNG imports into the U.S.
8History Projections
U.S. net LNG importstrillion cubic feet
6
8y
AEO2005
4
6
2
4
0
AEO2010
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 14
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlooks
Oil prices could remain well above U.S. gas prices if shale gas production continues to grow
5 ProjectionsHistory
ratio of oil prices to natural gas priceson a thermal equivalent basis
4
5 ProjectionsHistory
3
1
2
01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Natural Gas: U.S. Markets is a Global Context, April 7, 2010 15Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2010