Natural Gas Market National Overvie · Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight @...

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight @ FERC.gov

Natural Gas Market National Overview

Natural Gas Market Overview of 20

January 2009


Total U.S. Working Gas in Storage

Natural Gas Market Overview: National Storage

2003

2008-09

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Volu

me

(BC

F)

5-year range 2006 2007 2008

Stocks were 56 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,821 Bcf on 12/26/2008.

Source: Derived from EIA data. Updated January 9, 2009

of 20

January 2009


Regional Totals of Working Gas in Storage

Natural Gas Market Overview: Regional Storage

2004Source: Derived from EIA data.

2008-09

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Apr MayJu

ne July

AugSep

tOct Nov Dec Ja

nFeb Mar

Volu

me

(BC

F)

5-year range 2006 2007 2008

2008-09

0100200300400500

AprMayJu

ne July

AugSep

tOct Nov Dec Ja

nFeb Mar

Stocks were 26 Bcf abovethe 5-year average of 374 Bcf on 12/26/2008.

2008-09

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

AprMayJu

ne July

AugSep

tOct NovDecJa

nFeb Mar

Stocks were 49 Bcf abovethe 5-year average of 839 Bcf on 12/26/2008.

Stocks were 19 Bcf belowthe 5-year average of 1,608 Bcf on 12/26/2008.

Producing Region

Western Consuming Region

Eastern Consuming Region

Updated January 9, 2009

Producing

EastWest

of 20

January 2009


Henry Hub Natural Gas Daily Spot Prices 2001-2008

Natural Gas Market Overview: Henry Hub Spot Prices

2001Source: Derived from Platts data.

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

Jan-0

1Ju

l-01

Jan-0

2Ju

l-02

Jan-0

3Ju

l-03

Jan-0

4Ju

l-04

Jan-0

5Ju

l-05

Jan-0

6Ju

l-06

Jan-0

7Ju

l-07

Jan-0

8Ju

l-08

Pric

e ($

/MM

Btu)


of 20

January 2009


Henry Hub Natural Gas Daily Spot Prices 2007, 2008 and 2003-2007 Year Range

Natural Gas Market Overview: 5 Year Range of Henry Hub Spot Prices

2085Source: Derived from Platts data.

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2003 - 2007 Range 2005 Hurricanes2007 2008

30-Day Rolling Average Prices

$0$4$8

$12$16$20

Jan-0

3Ju

l-03

Jan-0

4Ju

l-04

Jan-0

5Ju

l-05

Jan-0

6Ju

l-06

Jan-0

7Ju

l-07

Jan-0

8Ju

l-08

Pric

e ($

/MM

Btu)


of 20

January 2009


Columbia

Waha Hub

AlgonquinCitygate

AECO Hub

Malin

Dawn

Tetco M-1

Pricing PointBlack – current priceGreen – increase/previous yearRed – decrease/previous yearBasis

ChicagoCitygate

TranscoZ6-NY

NorthernVentura

Katy Hub

Henry Hub

El PasoPermian

PanhandleTex-Okla

El PasoSan Juan

SoCal Border

PG&ECitygate

Kern RiverOpal

NW Sumas

Tennessee Zone 0

Niagara

$8.180.77

$8.461.09

0.291.15

1.26

$7.320.36

$7.200.23

$7.120.28

$6.490.48

$6.830.28

$6.200.31

$6.070.30

$5.700.22

$6.940.20

$6.610.25

$6.590.21

$6.620.31

$6.090.20

$6.890.42

$6.480.37

$4.07(1.32)

$6.410.32

$7.060.27

$6.340.36

0.111.53

1.130.78

2.42

2.34

0.21

0.41

0.35

0.21

0.74

0.07

0.26

0.22

0.13

0.19

0.29

0.01

0.02

0.48

Average Spot Gas Prices, 2007

Natural Gas Market Overview: Spot Gas Prices

Source: Platts. 2181Updated September 17, 2008

of 20

January 2009


U.S. Natural Gas Demand Shares by Sector in 2007

Natural Gas Market Overview: Demand By Sector

2002Source: Derived from EIA data.

Residential22%

Commercial14%

Industrial31%

Vehicle Fuel0%

Power Generation33%

Updated December 5, 2008

of 20

January 2009


Regional Natural Gas Production for 2008

Natural Gas Market Overview: Production By Region

2182Source: Derived from Bentek data.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14Ja

n-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8Ap

r-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Aug-

08Se

p-08

Oct-

08No

v-08

Dec-

08

Vol

ume

(Bcf

)

Mid-ContinentGulfWestAppalachia


of 20

January 2009


OCS Daily Shut-in andCumulative Lost Natural Gas Production- Gustav/Ike

Natural Gas Market Overview: Hurricane Shut-Ins

2184Source: Derived from Minerals Management Service data.

OCS Daily Shut-in and Cumulative Lost Natural Gas Production- Gustav/Ike

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

28-A

ug

4-Se

p

11-S

ep

18-S

ep

25-S

ep

2-O

ct

9-O

ct

16-O

ct

23-O

ct

30-O

ct

6-No

v

13-N

ov

20-N

ov

27-N

ov

4-De

c

11-D

ec

Daily

shu

t-in

Bcf

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Cum

ulat

ive

lost

pro

duct

ion

Bcf

Daily Federal Waters Offshore Production

Lost Production

Daily Shut-in Production


of 20

January 2009


U.S. and Canadian Natural Gas Drilling Rig Countand Daily Spot Prices

Natural Gas Market Overview: Drilling Rig Count

2007Source: Derived from Platts and Baker Hughes data.

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Pric

e ($

/MM

Btu)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Num

ber of Rigs

Henry Hub Average Weekly PriceU.S. Rigs Drilling for Natural GasCanadian Rigs Drilling for Natural Gas


of 20

January 2009


Oil, Coal and Natural Gas Daily Spot Prices

Source: Derived from ICE and Bloomberg data.Note: Coal prices are quoted in $/ton. Conversion factors to $/MMBtu are based on contract specifications of 12,000 btus/pound for Central Appalachian coal and 8800 btus/pound for Powder River Basin coal.

Natural Gas Market Overview: Oil, Coal and Natural Gas Prices

2160

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

Jan-

07Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

n-07

Jul-0

7Au

g-07

Sep-

07O

ct-0

7No

v-07

Dec-

07Ja

n-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8Ap

r-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Aug-

08Se

p-08

Oct

-08

Nov-

08De

c-08

Transco Z6 NYNatural Gas

NY No. 2 Fuel Oil

NY No. 6 0.3% Fuel Oil

Pric

e ($

/MM

Btu

)

$0$3$6$9

$12$15$18$21$24$27 WTI Crude Oil

Henry Hub Natural Gas

Central App Coal

Powder River Coal

Pric

e ($

/MM

Btu

)

Belvieu Non-LDH Propane


of 20

January 2009


Monthly Gas Imports at Existing U.S. LNG Facilities

Source: Derived from DOE Office of Fossil Energy data.

Natural Gas Overview: Monthly LNG Imports

2168

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-

06M

ar-0

6M

ay-0

6Ju

l-06

Sep-

06No

v-06

Jan-

07M

ar-0

7M

ay-0

7Ju

l-07

Sep-

07No

v-07

Jan-

08M

ar-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

l-08

Sep-

08No

v-08

Volu

me

(BC

F)

Northeast Gateway Energy BridgeFreeport, TXSabine Pass, LAGulf Gateway/ExcelerateLake Charles, LACove Point, MDElba Island, GAEverett, MA


of 20

January 2009


Daily Gas Sendout from Existing LNG Facilities

Source: Derived from Bentek data. Excludes Everett LNG delivered via truck and consumed by the Mystic plant as well as Freeport LNG which flows via intrastate pipelines.

Natural Gas Market Overview: Daily Gas Sendout

2161

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500Ja

n-07

Feb-

07M

ar-0

7Ap

r-07

May

-07

Jun-

07Ju

l-07

Aug-

07Se

p-07

Oct

-07

Nov-

07De

c-07

Jan-

08Fe

b-08

Mar

-08

Apr-0

8M

ay-0

8Ju

n-08

Jul-0

8Au

g-08

Sep-

08O

ct-0

8No

v-08

Dec-

08

Northeast Gateway/Excelerate

Sabine Pass

Gulf Gateway/Excelerate

Lake Charles

Cove Point

Elba Island

Everett

Dai

ly L

NG

Sen

dout

(MM

cf/d

)


of 20

January 2009


Natural Gas Overview: World LNG Prices

2169

World LNG Estimated January 2009 Landed Prices

Source: Waterborne Energy, Inc. Data in $US/MMBtu.

Cove Point$6.12

India$9.00

UK$7.50

Spain$8.90

Belgium$7.40

Japan$9.00

Korea$9.00

Lake Charles$5.23

Altamira$6.02

The U.S. Waterborne LNG Report, Nov. 25, 2008


of 20

January 2009


Atlantic Basin European and US Spot Natural Gas Prices

Source: Derived from Bloomberg and ICE data.

Natural Gas Market Overview: European & US Gas Prices

2162

$0

$3

$6

$9

$12

$15

$18

$21

$24

$27

Jan-0

7Feb

-07Mar-

07Apr-

07May

-07Ju

n-07

Jul-0

7Aug

-07Sep

-07Oct-

07Nov

-07Dec

-07Ja

n-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-0

8Ju

l-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

TTF Spot (Netherlands)Henry Hub Spot UK NBP Spot (Britain)Algonquin Spot

Pric

e ($

/MM

Btu

)


of 20

January 2009


Henry Hub and AECO Prompt-Month Futures Prices

Source: Derived from ICE data.

Natural Gas Market Overview: Henry Hub & AECO Futures Prices

2172

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16Ja

n-07

Feb-

07M

ar-0

7Ap

r-07

May

-07

Jun-

07Ju

l-07

Aug-

07Se

p-07

Oct-

07No

v-07

Dec-

07Ja

n-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8Ap

r-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Ju

l-08

Aug-

08Se

p-08

Oct-

08No

v-08

Dec-

08Ja

n-09

AECOHenry Hub

Pro

mpt

Mon

th P

rices

(US

D$/

MM

Btu

)


of 20

January 2009


U.S. Natural Gas Supply and ConsumptionJanuary-November 2008

Source: Derived from EIA/STEO data.

Natural Gas Market Overview: U.S. Supply and Consumption

2163Updated January 9, 2009

US Natural Gas Supply

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2008

Ave

rage

Dai

ly V

olum

e (B

cf/d

)

US Natural Gas Demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2008

Ave

rage

Dai

ly V

olum

e (B

cf/d

)

Electric Power

Other

Net Dry GasProduction

Net PipelineImports

Total Change in Demand 0.4%Total Change in Supply -0.1%

5.6%

-12.5%

-53.4%

-3.4%

4.0%

Commercial 2.8%

LNG Imports

Industrial 0.1%

Residential 3.2%

of 20

January 2009


Canadian and LNG Natural Gas Imports

Source: EIA Natural Gas Monthly

Natural Gas Market Overview: Natural Gas Imports

2180

US LNG Imports

020406080

100120

Jan-

06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Sep-

06

Nov-

06

Jan-

07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7

Sep-

07

Nov-

07

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-

08

Vol

ume

(Bcf

)

US Natural Gas Imports From Canada

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-

06

Mar

-06

May

-06

Jul-0

6

Sep-

06

Nov-

06

Jan-

07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7

Sep-

07

Nov-

07

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-

08

Vol

ume

(Bcf

)


of 20

January 2009


Total U.S. Natural Gas Demand (All Sectors)

Natural Gas Market Overview: Total US Gas Demand

20009Source: Derived from Bentek Energy data.

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Volu

me

(Bcf

d)

3 Year Range 2008


of 20

January 2009


Estimated Recoverable NG For Select Shale Basins (TCF)

Natural Gas Market Overview: Estimated Recoverable US Shale Gas

20010Source: Derived From American Clean Skies Foundation

20082006

13 20Antrim

34 262Marcellus

34 251Haynesville

34 53

SouthwestWyoming

26 42Fayetteville

12 17Woodford

62 97Barnett

Legend742215

Total US

Updated November 18, 2008

of 20

January 2009

Natural Gas Market National Overvie · Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight @...

Documents

Transcript of Natural Gas Market National Overvie · Federal Energy Regulatory Commission • Market Oversight @...