Natural Gas in the German Residential & Commercial Market
description
Transcript of Natural Gas in the German Residential & Commercial Market
Natural Gas in the GermanResidential & Commercial Market
Gas Industry mCHP WorkshopParis, 29 – 30 May 2008
Stephan Ramesohl (Dr.-Ing.)E.ON Ruhrgas AG
2
Key Questions
What is the current situation?
How does the framework change?
Which are the consequences from using natural gas in
the residential & commercial market?
Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?
Which opportunities does mCHP offer?
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0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
1979 1985 1990 1995 2000 2006
Gas Electricity District heat
Heat Pum p Others Oilapartment
s
Source: state officies of statistics inclusing federal states from 1991
New Buildings – Overall Downward Trend With Declining
Market Share
2006: 140,000 homes
w/natural gas
Forecast for 2030: -50%;
of which 50% w/natural gas
2030
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Loss in Market Shares as a Result of Upcoming Competition
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1/05 2/05 3/05 4/05 1/06 2/06 3/06 4/06 1/07 2/07 3/07
Nat gas Electric heat pumps Wood pellet boilers Fuel oil Others
Mark
et
sh
are
s s
pace h
eati
ng
/hot
wate
r ab
solu
te
Source: E.ON Ruhrgas
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High energy requirements of existing homes in the long
term
But: Existing Homes Remaining Core Market with High Energy Requirements
Share of homes [%]
Heat
dem
an
d
6
11,1 Mio (62,8 %)
Wohngebäude mit 1
Wohnung
(11,1 Mio Wohnungen)3,5 Mio (20,0 %)
Wohngebäude mit 2
Wohnungen
(7,1 Mio Wohnungen)
3,1 Mio (17,2 %)
Wohngebäude mit 3 oder
mehr Wohnungen
(20,7 Mio Wohnungen)
Existing Residential Buildings in Germany
31 Dec 2006, Federal Office of Statistics
Total residential buildings: 17.7 millionTotal apartments: 39.0 million
Large potential for technologies involving renewable energies
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The Gas Customer‘s Voice: Rising Demand for Renewable Energies in Existing Homes
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Natural gas users increasinglyshifting their focus torenewable energies
58 %
60 %
78 %
58 %
60 %
61 %
64 %
59 %
87 %
Source: E.ON Ruhrgas
Risk of losingapprox. 5.7 bn m³/a
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Key Questions
What is the current situation?
How does the framework change?
Which are the consequences from using natural gas in
the residential & commercial market?
Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?
Which opportunities does mCHP offer?
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50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
En
erg
iep
reis
en
twic
klu
ng
fü
r H
au
sh
alt
sku
nd
en
in
%
bez.
au
f 1991
Driver 1: Uncertain Trend in Energy Prices
Natural gas
Extra-light
fuel oil
Electricity
?
?
Source: Federal Ministry of Economics
Dynamic developmentin particular for gas/oil
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(10) EnEV (11) Betriebskosten Mietwohnungen (12) CO2-Gebäude- Sanierungsprg. (13) Energetische Modernisierung v. soz. Infrastruktur (14) EEWärmeG (15) Energetische Sanierung v. Bundesgebäuden
(6) Einführung moderner Energie- management- systeme (14) EEWärmeG
(1) KWK (2) Ausbau EE-Strom (3) CO2-arme KW-Technologien
(18) Umstellung Kfz-St. auf CO2-Basis
Driver 2: Energy and Climate Policy (Meseberg Package):
power: 14%R & C: 46%
(7) Förderprogramme für Klimaschutz und Energieeffizienz …(9) Einspeiseregelung für Biogas in Erdgasnetze (25) Energieforschung und Innovation
Industry: 25%
others: 15%
Affecting allsectors
Sector-specific
Share 2006 [%]
14 out of 29 measures relevant to natural gas, residential and
commercial (R & C) premium markets strongly affected
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Most Important Consequences of Meseberg Package in Residential & Commercial Market (Date: Jan 2008)
Amended EnEV* (new buildings) 2009 (and possibly 2012)More stringent limit values for primaryenergy requirements -30% each
2009: knock-out criterion for gas condensing boiler2012: knock-out criterion for gas condensing boiler + solar
Renewable Energies Heat Act (currently only new buildings)
Compliance options Solar (4% collector area/m2 useful area) Gas condensing boiler
+ solar Electric heat pump (>50%, min 3.3/4.0) Problematic for some EHPs. Gas heat pump (>50%, COPmin 1.2) OK, achievable with
gas heat pump Bio oil (>50%, in condensing appliance)
. Biomethane (>50%, only CHP) Discrimination against
biomethane µCHP Possibly incentive for µCHP . (Mandatory) connection to group/district heat Discrimination against
gas (w/renewable energies/CHP) .
Additional efficiency (-15% vs. EnEV*) .
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Key Questions
What is the current situation?
How does the framework change?
Which are the consequences from using natural gas in
the residential & commercial market?
Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?
Which opportunities does mCHP offer?
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Consequences Gas condensing technology alone no option in future for new
buildings
Take proactive steps to secure position of natural gas in new buildings as a trend market
Goal: Defend nationwide gas supplies – object to extreme political stance (no natural gas in new buildings from 2020)
Establish new technology options
Existing buildings continue to be mass market with (so far) relatively free choice of technology
Condensing boilers to be developed further as the basic technology with a focus on existing homes(costs , condensing boiler/solar, biomethane)
Sales lost as a result of improved efficiencies/renewable energies to be compensated for by substitution of fuel oilFocus: customers with service connection as target group
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Key Questions
What is the current situation?
How does the framework change?
Which are the consequences from using natural gas in
the residential & commercial market?
Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?
Which opportunities does mCHP offer?
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Bio-methane
Strategic Answer, Part 1:Expand Technology Portfolio - Combine Natural Gas and Renewable Energies
Highly efficientcondensing heatingsystems (existing)
Gas heat pumpto use ambient heat
Naturalgas
Solar & gascondensing boiler
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Strategic Answer, Part 2:Expand Technology Portfolio - Combine Heat and Power
hocheffizienteBrennwertheizungen
(Bestand)
Umweltwärme durchGaswärmepumpe
Solarthermie &Gas-Brennwertkessel
(Micro) CHP
Bio-methane
Naturalgas
Highly efficientcondensing heatingsystems (existing)
Gas heat pumpto use ambient heat
Solar & gascondensing boiler
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Key Questions
What is the current situation?
How does the framework change?
Which are the consequences from using natural gas in
the residential & commercial market?
Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?
Which opportunities does mCHP offer?
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Natural Gas-Based CHP to Curb CO2 EmissionsExisting single-family home as an example (annual heat + power balance)
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
district heat
coal
gas condensing
power mix D
gas condensing
power with combined-cycle
packaged CHP(group heat)
micro CHP micro CHP(optimised)
CO
2 em
issi
on
s in
t/a
e = 40% e = 32% e = 38%
boiler boiler
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Opportunity: mCHP to Increase Gas Sales
BW
Grid electricity
Gas µKWK
- 2,900 kWh
EFH EFH
+ 5,000 kWh+ 25%
Gas: 21,000 kWh
Electricity: 4,400 kWh
Supplies
Gas: 26,000 kWh
Electricity: 1.500 kWh
Supplies
BW
Grid electricity
Gas µKWK+ 28,000 kWh+ 40%
MFH MFHGas: 69,000 kWh
Electricity: 42,000 kWh
Gas: 97,000 kWh
Electricity: 20,000 kWh
Supplies Supplies
- 22,000 kWh
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0,00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,91,01,11,21,31,41,51,61,71,8
60 70 80 90 100 110
Gesamtwirkungsgrad [%]
Str
om
ken
nza
hl [
-]
Brennstoffzellen
Stirling
Gasmotoren + weiter
100% Deckung
60% Deckung
Requirements for mCHP under Renewable Energies Heat Act Stirling concepts on the edge?
Threshold value:15% primary energy savingscompared to grid electricity and condensing boiler
EWärmeG(BaWü)
EEWärmeG(Bund)
total efficiency [%]
ele
ctr
. p
ow
er
rati
o [
-]
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There is a future for natural gas in the domestic sector –but not this one …
DIE ZEIT, 11 Oct 2007
No solar panel,no wall insulation –
let‘s go …. !