Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
-
Upload
german-marshall-fund-of-the-united-states -
Category
Documents
-
view
222 -
download
0
Transcript of Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
1/35
MEDITERRANEAN PAPER SERIES 2013
NATURAL GAS IN CYPRUS
CHOOSING THE RIGHT OPTION
Anastasios Giamouridis
http://www.gmfus.org/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
2/35
2013 Te German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
No part o this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any orm or by any means without permission in writing
rom the German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF). Please direct inquiries to:
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States
1744 R Street, NW
Washington, DC 20009
1 202 683 2650
F 1 202 265 1662
GMF Paper Series
Te GMF Paper Series presents research on a variety o transatlantic topics by sta, ellows, and partners o the German
Marshall Fund o the United States. Te views expressed here are those o the author and do not necessarily represent the
views o GMF. Comments rom readers are welcome; reply to the mailing address above or by e-mail to [email protected].
About GMF
Te German Marshall Fund o the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and
global challenges and opportunities in the spirit o the Marshall Plan. GMF does this by supporting individuals and institu-
tions working in the transatlantic sphere, by convening leaders and members o the policy and business communities,
by contributing research and analysis on transatlantic topics, and by providing exchange opportunities to oster renewedcommitment to the transatlantic relationship. In addition, GMF supports a number o initiatives to strengthen democra-
cies. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-prot organization through a gi rom Germany as a permanent memorial to
Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides o the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in
Washington, DC, GMF has ofces in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade, Ankara, Bucharest, Warsaw, and unis. GMF also has
smaller representations in Bratislava, urin, and Stockholm.
About the Mediterranean Policy Program
Te Mediterranean Policy Program promotes transatlantic analysis and dialogue on issues aecting Southern Europe, North
Arica, the Levant, and the Mediterranean basin. Priority areas include: understanding trends in Mediterranean societies;
exploring opportunities or south-south cooperation and integration; research on key unctional issues aecting Mediter-
ranean security and development; and strengthening the North American policy debate on the region and transatlantic
cooperation on Mediterranean strategy.
GMFs Eastern Mediterranean Energy Project addresses the political and economic implications, risks and opportunities
o the recent energy discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean region. It aims to promote the conditions or the peaceuldevelopment o the new energy opportunities in the Eastern Mediterranean and to promote regional cooperation on energy
issues. See more at: www.gmus.org/programs/climate-energy
Cover photo: An oshore exploration platorm. AndrCGS
http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.gmfus.org/programs/climate-energyhttp://www.gmfus.org/programs/climate-energyhttp://www.gmfus.org/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
3/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus
Choosing the Right Option
Mediterranean Paper Series
September 2013
A G
A G P, / f. H x z, LNG, - w w .Bf j P, wk w Oxf I f E S, Gk P G C (DEPA), & PFC E, U.K. H f C.
T w k k G M F (GMF) S M L CB f x ff j, w C C f x f . T f f x f HwR f Oxf I f E S (OIES) A M f P M C, wk k f. T . M k P M C w w , A Px, K T, O Nj, A Fw. T x G E G D Kzz, w j. T f w x k .
G . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
E Cx . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
F L R: T A G D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
I A C D? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
S L R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Lk E Bf T Hz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Ex O . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
C C w I? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
C. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
4/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesii
Glossary
B B
B B
Bwf E j f f x f
w f , w
f j. I qf fwk,
f wf z x j f
-
, w , j.
Cz S Mz
Dw T k f & EEZ Ex E Z
EFSF E F S F
EIB E I Bk
ESM E S M
EU E U
E&P Ex & P
F- F- w f q f f
wk w f
PSC .
GDP
Gf E j f f w w
f . Ex f
f w -
Brownfield.
IMF I M F
IOC
KRETYK C N H C
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
5/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus iii
Lqf T w -6 C w f z f f :6 q
w LNG k.
LNG qf
M T f & . T f f
qf, , LNG k .
B
Mz Mz, z, f f
( / ), w k f .
N N w w kw
, q w
f
f. S
q (NGL) , , ,
k, w fk . T
f j
f f j
.
N q S
P w P w -
f
w k q. T
f f w f
k.
PSC
T PSC w
f w f w w . I PSC,
E&P k. If f, f w w
PSC.
P P f q f
f w
x
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
6/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United Statesiv
TCF f
T (LNG) E j f qf . L
f (.. ) w ,
f f.
Uz Uz f x, ,
. I k z ff w ff
, w /
x f . I
.
Uz f w
, w f f j f w . T f
w w f
k , f
. C- z .
U T x f .
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
7/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 1
1Economic Context
T x z C f f
f
x z (EEZ).
T z k
f f
fw f . A
f q
w
f f . T
f
f C w xz f f
.
Bw 5 8, R f C
fw j
f , w
J 8. GDP w
f .8 -- f
f f 8.
P f f
, w C
, , f ,
w 9 (-.9 )
T f x f k
Gk ,
w f ,
C .
I M , C F M
Kk Kz , k ,
w f f C
k jk
M (fw
S P J). T
q f E
F S F (EFSF) E
S M (ESM), fw f
C EU
C w w R f C, z - . T Tk R f NC, w z Tk, w f TRNC C.
J , . I , .4 .
B M , C w f w
f f z x.
A k, f f
, N A, w
,
f E U
(EU) I M F (IMF).
T EU IMF C w -
f , j .
T q f f k
EU 8. T
w ff
x. T C , f,
f
(..
,) f C f
k C. T, w
wk
,
k
.
A k,
C
. C f,
, z
x , f
w . O
k k,
f ff f
f j f
.
F M L, Cyprus bailout and Israel-Turkey dtente present new opportunities, 5 M , www.f.; R, Factbox: outlines of Cypruss bailout bythe euro zone, 6 M , www...
http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.reuters.com/http://www.reuters.com/http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.gmfus.org/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
8/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States2
F, w , w f f
x w
w f x
f C f
w . T
w
f f .
E , w
E, w w, f .
A f w q
f f
. B E
w
x .
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
9/35
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
10/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States4
Commercial Viability
H ,
A,
f . I,
f
() (z)
x w .
P x
f f j
.
E f f
, f ,
f, f
k
.
F - f
, f j.
Resource Base in Aphrodite/Block 12
T 5-8 f f
f A f
f f. T w f
w C fw w
f LNG . T
f 6 f
w jf f LNG
x f w f 5
(). B
f x f
k .6 Cf f
w f (.. 5 6 f )
6 A w f qf- . I z f E Af, D L f OxfI f E S 8- f f 8 ( ) LNG f. T f w. F x, S 9 f Tz w qf f w. M DL, East Africa gas potential for export, Oxf If E S, M , www.xf..
k, wz f f,
w . I
, 6 f q
z w
LNG .
T f D
f w
Bk f f -5 f.7
Hw,
f
f .
Cf f f 5-8 f
A / f
Bk
A w w
C x f (.. ff z
) f x
f w f f
f wf ,
f.8
Production Costs and Gas Quality at Aphrodite
Sf q
A f
. I, A ff
f 8 k f C
w f ,7
. I f x
7 O KRETYK w Bk A ff , f x C E, CEO, E M Nw F f L (- A ), Cypruss offshore exploration: the
current status and way forward; E P, 8 .. , 4 J ,www..; S L, : , M , www...
8 I qf fwk, f wf z x j f - , w , j.
3Is Aphrodite a Commercial Discovery
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.energypress.gr/http://www.sigmalive.com/http://www.sigmalive.com/http://www.energypress.gr/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
11/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 5
. P
w US$ B
T U () C I.
Hw, k w
w
w , w
$.75 f
q .9
Oil and Liquids Credits
N w
, ..
q
w
f .
S (f
f )
N G Lq
(NGL) ,
, ,
k. T
fk
.
T
f
9 F x, - f w $ f C ( w $) f Mzq. I ,L f $ ( ) f Mzq w G M P $6.4 f f - , T. M, f EM - M w I E C f fN j T f. T $5.75 . S D L, East Africa
gas potential for export, Oxf I f E S,M , www.xf.; N E,Analystconference, 6 D , www..; A G, The offshore discovery in the Republic ofCyprus: monetization prospects and challenges, Oxf If E S, J , www.xf..
Figure 1 Basic parameters determining the commercial viability of agas project
Figure 2 Basic breakdown of the revenue of a natural gas project
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.nobleenergyinc.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.nobleenergyinc.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
12/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States6
Figure 3 Basic breakdown of the cost basis of a natural gas project
f j. T x f
w
f.
Important Milestones for Aphrodites
Development
N E , w
J , w f
f
A. D x
q x . A
w w
f f ,
w f
. Hw, f
f f .
If f EIA, Glossary: natural gas liquids, 9 J , www..; Gz, Glossary: gas condensate
fields, 9 J , www.zf..
C Nw A, Noble Energy starts A-2 appraisaldrilling in Block 12, 7 J , www...; C M,Noble firms up drilling date, A , www.-..
T A
f
( w
k f
ff ).
S, f f
Bk ,
A, wq .
C
C w
f A
f LNG
f
F E E
D (FEED) f f 5,
fz f
f f
5, f EP, C (EPC)
f 5. T F I D
(FID) x 6, w
f f
.
M f f f CE, KRETYK CEO, E M NwF f w k A -, L, Cypruss offshore exploration: the current status and way
forward.
http://www.eia.gov/http://www.gazprominfo.com/http://www.cna.org.cy/http://www.cyprus-mail.com/http://www.cyprus-mail.com/http://www.cyprus-mail.com/http://www.cyprus-mail.com/http://www.cna.org.cy/http://www.gazprominfo.com/http://www.eia.gov/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
13/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 7
4Second Licensing Round
New Licenses Under Cypruss Second Round
Cf f C
w f
. Uk f , w
f IOC, ,
, LNG ,
f
f k .
L w w f f ff k
f w ff (f w )
f q f . Off k , ,
9 w w Ij ENI w LNG ,
K KOGAS; Bk w
w F j T.
A f Bk 9 T,
Nk Gz Bk f R,
w f , f f
ENI-KOGAS . B
( ) , k 9
f ff k
C, w w
q f A.4
S k ff
w w, ff f
( f ENI-KOGAS f
ff k 5 6). T f
S U O, Players warm response to Cyprus license
round, 7 M , www.. ; SkW, 15 , M , www.kw...
4 S E, , 5 M , www.-.; P, Cyprus call time on more license awards, F , www..; M E ES, Noble Energy expects more gas in Block 12, 6 O, www...
ff k w ENI D .5
Prospects
T f
ff k,. T
f
,
, , f
x . T
f j . C
(.. ff Bk , , 9, ,
, ) 4 f f ,w 6 f C EEZ.6 If
f, w C
w LNG j f,
f q
q A f.
I J , P S, CEO f ENI,
f ENI x
f f 4. S
f ENI w
qf f C f
. S, T ff x f
Bk f f .
T
f- N E Bk .7
T C
wk f . If
5 I C, No date for bidding, J , www.-..; P, Cyprus call time on more license awards, F , www..; M E E S,Noble Energy expects more gas in Block 12 , 6 O ,www...
6 C E, Cypruss offshore exploration: the current statusand way forward, E M Nw F f-, L, A -, .
7 M P, , J , www.w.; w f G, Total mulls buying Noble,Dk Bk , J , www... ; B-, Cyprus studies LNG export expansion beyond $12 billionterminal, J , www...
http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.stockwatch.com.cy/http://www.stockwatch.com.cy/http://www.energypress.gr/http://www.energypress.gr/http://www.platts.com/http://www.mees.com/http://www.incyprus.com.cy/http://www.incyprus.com.cy/http://www.platts.com/http://www.mees.com/http://www.philenews.com/http://www.philenews.com/http://www.globes.co.il/http://www.bloomberg.com/http://www.bloomberg.com/http://www.globes.co.il/http://www.philenews.com/http://www.philenews.com/http://www.mees.com/http://www.platts.com/http://www.incyprus.com.cy/http://www.incyprus.com.cy/http://www.mees.com/http://www.platts.com/http://www.energypress.gr/http://www.energypress.gr/http://www.stockwatch.com.cy/http://www.stockwatch.com.cy/http://www.upstreamonline.com/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
14/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States8
f f ff k
4-5, w f
f LNG
f 6, f
A ff.8
8 A f w k w q: ENI T w (G&G) ; k w . ENI T w
f x w . P x - (f / ), ENI T w () f . P f , w w f , -.
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
15/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 9
Structure of Economic Benefits
C x
f f
,
. T f
) f )
. G f
j , f ,
f
,
w .
D f
C f w :
w w w
f f f f .
F 4 w
f f C
f
EEZ.
General Benefits for the Economy of Cyprus
Exploration and Production Operations
Ex
w f f w.
T
w w k w
f
x
.
T f Nw
, f x,
x - f GDP, w
6, wk
( 8 ),
f BI Nw B S.
A 85 f j 6 f
GDP , .. Nw
q .9
T x f Nw
w k
k
N S U.K.,
w N Af M
(w ).
Nw f
w x
( ) w
f f . T w
Nw
.
I f , C f
f x
x Bk
k w ENI-KOGAS T.
P f f f
x j ,
w f C
k / w
. Hw, x ff
C k
j GDP f k f
x C.
I f
fwk,
H R D A
w ff f , w
wk f x
. Hw, A
9 T , , ; & w; f ( ); . M f A S A B (), Knowledge based oil and gas industry,R R , BI Nw B S, Df S L, www...
I.
5Liely Economic Beneitsand Time Horion
http://www.bi.no/http://www.bi.no/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
16/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States10
f C ff
, k f x.
A , C
f f
. I
f
, , . Tw w , k-
, x
f . C w
;
f z f
, ff ff
; f
q f
f
w ff, , . T
T H R D A f C, ,N , www....
ff w IOC
w C f.
D z
f f
GDP
, w f
C f. T w qf ,
, , . T C
x. T f
w w
f .
Gas Infrastructure Development
T f f
ff f. T
F x, J , C x f C EDT Off. EDT f f L. I f - N Bk , w U f N ff . If fE, : , J ; C G Nw,Energy job boost, J , www.w.
Figure 4 Structure of economic benets in Cyprus from hydrocarbons developments
http://www.hrdauth.org.cy/http://www.cyprusgasnews.com/http://www.cyprusgasnews.com/http://www.hrdauth.org.cy/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
17/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 11
f f; f ( ) -
k ff f w
C; f C
wk
; f x
f ( x LNG ).
T H R D A
/
w . S 5
f f
- k ff f
w C. S wk w
f f
wk.
Hw, f j
w f qf
(LNG ), w k wkf f
4, f . T
f
f z f A
f 5 qf C,
w f w
Bk / f
k ENI-KOGAS T.
C w f f
w f
A ff /
C ff k
f f k
j .
T f f f /- f f. D f w f x. I , f w j, f f q . M f f T H R D A f C, ,N , www....
T k f z x C w f j
C, w w w-
k j . N w
. A C
k z
w ,
q f
f wk.
Improvements in Economic Competitiveness and
the Balance of Trade
C x
x (
f ) f w . E-
f C
EU, w
f Dk.4 T
f
,
.
If C
E
, f .F x, f C
E f
, C
. .
T w f w
, .. w
- f
(, , ).5 D
, ff
4 E E P, Electricity Industry and ElectricityHouseholds, 5 S , www...
5 T ff f f C, f f ( ) . F f f , f x P MC, How can small-scale LNG help grow the European gasmarket?, J , www...
http://www.hrdauth.org.cy/http://www.energy.eu/http://www.poyry.com/http://www.poyry.com/http://www.energy.eu/http://www.hrdauth.org.cy/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
18/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States12
( w),
x, C
f w .5
7.4
()
f
.6 C
f
. ,
9
(, ) .
T f C
f , , x
, w
.7
T ff w f
f f
.
Direct Government Revenues
Signature Bonuses
I F ,
5 f ENI-KOGAS
w 4 f T
6 M A G, The offshore discovery in the Republic ofCyprus: monetization prospects and challenges, Oxf If E S, J , www.xf..
7 LNG - .. C f . Hw, k LNG k , f - f - . T f f C x f f LNG k,w w f F S Rf U (FSRU).
f Bk , , 9 , .8
Sf f k
f
w . T
f f
f f. A
f f w
ff , w
f .
Tax Revenue
I w w f C
, x f
f-
. T C w x
f f wk
x . Tx w fw
f
- .
Profit Sharing
C w f ( / )
. A f (M
PSC) C
F , C 8 P, 150 , 5 F , www.w..
Table 1 General economic benets from hydrocarbons developments in
Cyprus
Opportunity When? Value?
Ex (, , -)
P f k ( wk)
S
G f -
Af - f
M
I C f
O C / x k
M
I
O C k
M f C
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.philenews.com/http://www.philenews.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
19/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 13
w f ff k. T w
f f
w
x. T x f
f- w j
w C
. ( w
w
x).9
T PSC q
f f (
f q )
.
F , f A f
w -
x 5 (7 ) f /LNG ,
w f $.8
f J
f $4.7 ; $.7 f
E f $.6 .
Hw, w
f , w w
(f
), , x
, z,
, f
w k. C
f x $4 f
(
) w $6
q f f -
qf .
9 M f C, I, T,Model Explo-ration and Production Sharing Contract, N, F ,www...; w ff, A J .
A $ f (LNG k) F E,
f f 65 , j
q - f,
LNG J k,
w f f k,
w f C
$8 .
Hw, f
w $5 f f -
LNG x $6 . C,
C
$ f C f LNG
- .
M, f
w f
,
, /LNG
k . T
w ff k
f
f
N, ENI-KOGAS, T. Tz w k
.
T z
f f C
w f
f .
L f f w f -- f j f. E f M f C, I, T NkSk f $. (9 ) f z- f A f f f w ; f z f C f . M f F M, Cyprus natgas
gains at 4 bln a year, says Kretyk, 5 A , www.f-.. Q f BP, Statistical Review2011, www...
http://www.mcit.gov.cy/http://www.financialmirror.com/http://www.financialmirror.com/http://www.bp.com/http://www.bp.com/http://www.financialmirror.com/http://www.financialmirror.com/http://www.mcit.gov.cy/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
20/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States14
Pre-Selling Rights to Block 12
T C
w, w ,
f
A f .
T -
w EU IMF
, z f
A f,
z , , f,
. M,
C f
f
f w
ff w x.
R f- ff
x. F x, E Af
w
w f IOC w
f .
T -f
f ff Mzq (A 4),
S f x M E E S, Cyprus EnergyMinister says confirmation drilling top priority, M ,www...
F- w f q f f wk ( w f , ).
f w $
$8
f.
Hw,
M k
f
E Af (
ff Mzq)
f f
A
LNG k,
x f IOC .4
I,
I w A
W f ff
L f. T
f f Mz
. T ,
w, $ f f
$4
f L w LNG x
If f B, CNPC to buy stake in ENIMozambique assets for $4.2 billion, 4 M , www.-
.; R,Mozambique Oks PTT bid for Cove, despiteShell, 9 M , www...
4 F f - f LNG z Tz Mzq, D L, East Africa gas potential for export, OxfI f E S, M , www.xf.; f f xU O, Indians confirm Mozambique block deal, 5J , www...
Table 2 Direct hydrocarbons revenue opportunities for the government
of Cyprus
Opportunity When? Value?
S
W w k S k
Tx D -
S f
R f
O C / xk
S
http://www.mees.com/http://www.bloomberg.com/http://www.bloomberg.com/http://www.reuters.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.reuters.com/http://www.bloomberg.com/http://www.bloomberg.com/http://www.mees.com/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
21/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 15
w .5
T f w $9
$ f f- Bk
5 Hw, fff ( w ) f f I x 4 f . A A, W q f 5 k jf f -. M f W I ff Nw.., Woodside holds off on$750 m for Israel, 5 J , www.w..; G, Wood-side reviewing Israel plan report, J , www..
.; N E, A f, 6 D ,www..;U O, Woodside takesLeviathan stake, D , www.. ; F T, Woodside snaps up Leviathan stake, D , www.f..
f , w f . U
f , C w
w $6 $. f
f , f
65/5 f Bk . A
x
W L,
f f f C
x f A
f w N,
A .
I , f, - k
f f C.
http://www.news.com.au/http://www.globes.co.il/http://www.globes.co.il/http://www.nobleenergyinc.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.ft.com/http://www.ft.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.nobleenergyinc.com/http://www.globes.co.il/http://www.globes.co.il/http://www.news.com.au/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
22/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States16
Monetization
Mz f f
k
f
. Mz
k f
f j f. T
f z
f f f . D
k
f - f f
k. T f
ff (w w), (.. f
k),
, f,
k k, f f
x.
C x
f qf
w k A, E,
; f G
Tk, E
k. T M x w. T
z f
S H.6
Pipeline to Turkey
Cost Element
Tk ff f x
f -
Tk.7 Hw,
6 S H, N G Ex O f I C, M P P, G M F
f U S, S , ://www.f.//--x--f---/.
7 S f x Ak,Akdenizdeki gaz dmnn zTrkiyeden geiyor, J , www.k.. ; K C, : , J , www.k..; K C, : , D ,www.k...
f f
w R f C
Tk. T fw f
f
, .
A Tk w
w
z ( G
qf), f x
f C Tk. I w ff C
w k w
. D w k
Tk w
fw q
f x ,
f
w . Tk
q f, f, f x
-
f w ( w ) w
x .
Hw, f w
A Tk,
- , f
f
Tk
f
f .8
Market Risks
P f C (/ I)
w k f
Tk k. T
k w
z w.
8 Sf w j-f w w kw f , q . I, D L x $.75 . S D L, East Africa gas potential
for export, Oxf I f E S, M ,www.xf..
6Eport Options
http://www.gmfus.org/archives/natural-gas-export-options-for-israel-and-cyprus/http://www.gmfus.org/archives/natural-gas-export-options-for-israel-and-cyprus/http://www.aksam.com.tr/http://www.kathimerini.com.cy/http://www.kathimerini.com.cy/http://www.kathimerini.com.cy/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.kathimerini.com.cy/http://www.kathimerini.com.cy/http://www.kathimerini.com.cy/http://www.aksam.com.tr/http://www.gmfus.org/archives/natural-gas-export-options-for-israel-and-cyprus/http://www.gmfus.org/archives/natural-gas-export-options-for-israel-and-cyprus/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
23/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 17
Map 1 Examples of available monetization options in the Eastern Mediterranean
Source: Oxford Institute of Energy Studies
F, Tk Gz x
, f G, E
k f fw k
E w
k. Hw, R
f k (
w) f k
Tk ff . T
f f
C Tk k.
S, w w f Tk
w C . T
f C
f LNG A
k. U
k f (.. ,
, .),
. I f,
z f E
M ( C)
Tk f
.
T, w C
Tk w k f
f , f . A w
q f f
f f.
T C (/ I )
w w
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
24/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States18
f Tk 4. O , f C I
f ww f w
k w
f.9
T, f -
w Tk
ff k
f k , w
w f -
k w
. T w k (
) k, w
f f
x f C .4
O j w f Tk
k S Dz f Azj. T
BP- f (4
f) S Dz f w f
f (.. S Dz P II)
f . U , w
x 6 Tk k,
w G, I,
E k T-
A P (TAP).4
T k
, f w :
) S Dz f , ,
9 P w - f w k, f f k.
4 Tk f
f R, Azj, I, A (LNG), N (LNG), w LNG f k. F f Tk k, f x E Mk R A(EPDK), Natural gas market: 2011 sector report, , www...k(www.k..k).
4 U O, EU hails TAP boost to European energysecurity, 8 J , www.. ; BP,About BPCaspian: Shah Deniz, A , www...
j ;
) S Dz fx w
x k ( )
w f w
f . F Az
(.. S Dz II) k
-, f
A, ACG , U, f.4
B w Az ,
Tk k ( w
f ) Iq,
I, Tk. I, w
k f x
Tk k w
ff. A
f ff
Bk S E , w
Tk f fw w
f ff (Bk S, Tk)
(T,
A, S Lk, S ) .4
F, C E M
f w . If C
I x Tk
5 (7 ) k f x
f A f, Tk k
f . Tk
4 S S P, Central Asian and Caspian gas produc-tion and the constraints on export, Oxf I f ES, D , www.xf..
4 T U.S. E If A Tk 4 f f . T f - , w w w f .M E If A-, Technically recoverable shale oil and shale gas resources: anassessment of 137 shale formations in 41 countries outside theUnited States, J , www...
http://www.emra.gov.tk/http://www.emra.gov.tk/http://www.epdk.gov.tk/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.bp.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.eia.gov/http://www.eia.gov/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.bp.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.epdk.gov.tk/http://www.emra.gov.tk/http://www.emra.gov.tk/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
25/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 19
w, w w ww .44
I f , w
f f C
( I) Tk w
x
q.
Other Pipeline Options
Pipeline to Greece
Mz f C I ff
- G f k:
(..
), ff ,
f x w f,
k k f .45 A
- G w ff f w
,
Tk . T z )
, f
-
ff f E M
w G ( , k); )
G w f ff k,
Gk k
Tk k.
Onward Transit to Other European Markets
C w f x
Tk / Gk k.
44 I , PSC C ff ff C, f . T f C, w ff f
f C. I w k Tk.
45 T z G(-w) w DEPA SA. F - f w CEO j fw, f x H S, The role of the ITGISystem: New opportunities and synergies rise from the East Medi-terranean, P C E S, 6J , www...
B w f C Tk E k w x
f C w f f
Tk .
A f f w $ $5 ,
f f k ,
Tk , ..
Tk Gk B ,
f x f C
w $ $ . T
x $.5 f
k C E. I w w f
k S E.
S x q
Tk
. If Tk f
z, w .
T Tk fwk w
w C
. Lk f
w k f f.
T x f C I w q
ff TAP , w S C E q
f . Hw,
TAP - x f
f , w w
f S Dz II , w
f fw f .46
F,
j
S E C E
w w ff
.47
46 R, TAP gas pipeline project gets vital legal approval, 7M , www...
47 F f S E f f A G S P,Security of gas supply in Southeastern Europe: potential contribu-tion of planned pipelines, LNG, and storage, Oxf I fE S, J , www.xf..
http://www.iene.gr/http://www.reuters.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.reuters.com/http://www.iene.gr/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
26/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States20
M, k f k
w f
f . F x, f
S E
w
k .
S, w f k
f
-x k f
f f
.48
P x G, I, S
E, C E w
w x
f R w w Az
f S Dz P II
f. I , x f E
M w
x f w E
Iq, I, Tk w
ff Bk S
S E.Pipeline to Neighbors in the Eastern Mediterranean
P x
J, L, S, E
C.
I f ,
f
f f f w
. T
f f f C I,
48 T f ( f ) f , q f w w - k .
fff x f E S.49
T x f x k
E M ff f
q f f
w w. Hw,
k w f
:
T f k,
w j f
x ;
T f
f f w
;
T f w
ff
w f
x;5
T k f f
E,5
ff , x f Iq
I.
49 S Hk D, L E-K, B F,East Mediterranean gas: what kind of a game-changer, OxfI f E S, D , www.xf; B Sff, Energy resources and markets in the eastern
Mediterranean region, E M E Pj:P Bf, G M F f U S, J, www.f.; S H, Energy discoveriesin the eastern Mediterranean; source for cooperation or fuel fortension, M E Pj: P Bf, GM F f U S, J , www.f..
5 F f w z
, B F J S (.), Naturalgas markets in the Middle East and North Africa, Oxf If E S, , www.xf..
5 M f w f E ff w f x f f A A, Between a rock and a hard
place: Egypts new natural gas supply policy, A PI C, V 8, N , M , www...
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.apic.com/http://www.apic.com/http://www.apic.com/http://www.apic.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
27/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 21
Liquefaction and Hybrid Options
Liquefaction
Lqf z f
C , w
f f
LNG f f 5 .
A k,
f (MU) J
f f qf
Vk w
Bk , .. N E
Dk D A O Ex.5
A KRETYK, Vk q f - , w
C
qf f w
. T w w C
f LNG, f
k .5
Lqf ff
z
( Tk, G, ).
LNG k f
, f LNG w f f
w. T w f
LNG x
f LNG
w.
5 MU w / FID f LNG j. T w f 6 ff f f ,w w . S, MU f k fw , f C
qf j f , LNGf f - EU . M f MU CG Nw,Memorandum of understanding signed, 6 J ,www.w.; U O, Cyprus inks MoUon LNG, 6 J , www.. .
5 E P, 8 .. , 4 J , www...
LNG w- w k . F x,
w E w
LNG f. T f
C w w w
LNG , ,
ff LNG k
. O
f LNG
- LNG f
.54
LNG fx
k f .
T k A L
A, w
-, -x
. T w
E k w f
-x.55 P fx
,
54 S f x P f Vw P M- C LNG wk : How can small-scale LNG help grow the Euro-
pean gas market?, J , www...
55 F f f E f Pk H, Continental European gas hubs: are they fit for
purpose, Oxf I f E S, J , www.xf.; J S Hw R,The transition to hub-based gas pricing in continental Europe ,Oxf I f E S, M , www.xf-.; J S, Continental European long-term
gas contracts: is a transition away from oil product linked-pricinginevitable and imminent, Oxf I f E S,S 9, www.xf..
http://www.cyprusgasnews.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.energypress.gr/http://www.poyry.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.poyry.com/http://www.energypress.gr/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.cyprusgasnews.com/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
28/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States22
f f w A A-Pf B.56
T , w
LNG k, f x f
A - , US ,
E Af ff . T k k
k L A, A
w ,
f , .57
N
f LNG ff k
ff f j f, f C
j
A ( f
f
fx).58
Combination of Monetization Options
T f
f
qf fw
x f G P G
56 N, fx x- f x qf . I f Gf, f - w , f j. T j k f f ( -) . Hw, q f - LNG w( f ) f wfx x qf , ff f fx . O w, x / - ( ) j , f w f . F k A LNG j
, Hw R, LNG trade-flows in the Atlanticbasin: trends and discontinuities, Oxf I f ES, M , www.xf..
57 S f x P,Japan seeking U.S. LNG, to ask for U.S.waiver during Kuwait meeting, M , www...
58 C qf w f f EU, f.
C DEPA SA, w z f C ( I)
z . Hw,
f ,
f ff
C, q f -
. T
f x w
f f
j .
LNG j f
f x, -
ff. Fx, 65-7
f f f .
T j f
f f f f .
S
- x
w 65 f
.
F, x j x
qf f -- k
. T
LNG
fx . H,
z C
f
.. f
w
x f qf
f Vk j
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.platts.com/http://www.platts.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
29/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 23
f f .59
Choosing the Right Option
T f z
f ff f
f . I q
. T
f
f f(), w
k f . D
w f
, ,
fx, ,force majeure ,
f (f ). O f
wk
x k, w C
59 T f f Sk z - f qf - f x (Gz, T, S) f wf f f . F f x U O, Shtokman revamp could center onLNG, A , www.. ; UO, Statoil backs LNG bid on Shtokman, A , www...
.6
A C ,
w.
B f,
f LNG f ff k
f w E Af,
N A, w
k. A f C LNG
k E
M , I
L. If
C f qf, w
f , f f
.
6 F f z , A G, The offshore discovery in the Republic ofCyprus: monetization prospects and challenges, Oxf If E S, J , www.xf..
http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
30/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States24
Unitization Agreements
C w I
f f
f z
z. T f
, w ff
, . T f z
f f
. C- z
, N S
f w.6
I E M, z
q w C
I f A f w,
x Bk
I EEZ. D w w
w . Uz
w L E w f
f k w ENI-KOGAS T
x EEZ.
Uz q
fwk, ff f,
, ff. C I
k . I ,
f ,
f f x,
. T C
6 If f A L W, The North Sea experi-ence an analysis of cross-border unitization and move towardsestablishing an international legal framework, U fD, C f E, P M Lw P, www...k; Az Ikkw Aw, Unitiza-tion of contract areas: is it an obligation defeating the stabilityof international petroleum agreements, U f D,C f E, P M Lw P, www...k.
w ,f f f .6
Joint Monetization
Definitions and Relevance for Cyprus
T f f
w f -
k f A (/
, f
). Hw, z f
k, f f
z f w x
f, w w k f f qf . A k,
j z f C w
f f
ff (..
) f.
C f f
C
f qk w
w w f f ENI-KOGAS
/ T w
ff k. M, j z f C w
j
( f), f A
w. T
/
, f
f.
6 If f F M, Cyprus, Israel offshoregas fields to get navy protection, M , www.f-.; w ff, A J ; IC G,Aphrodites gift: can Cypriot gas power a newdialogue, E R N 6, A , www.-.; E P, , J ,www..; S K, The status of hydro-carbon exploration in Cyprus, P I BCf, T A, I, D , www....
7Commercial Cooperation ith Israel
http://www.dundee.ac.uk/http://www.dundee.ac.uk/http://www.dundee.ac.uk/http://www.financialmirror.com/http://www.financialmirror.com/http://www.crisisgroup.org/http://www.crisisgroup.org/http://www.energypress.gr/http://www.mcit.gov.cy/http://www.mcit.gov.cy/http://www.mcit.gov.cy/http://www.mcit.gov.cy/http://www.energypress.gr/http://www.crisisgroup.org/http://www.crisisgroup.org/http://www.financialmirror.com/http://www.financialmirror.com/http://www.dundee.ac.uk/http://www.dundee.ac.uk/http://www.dundee.ac.uk/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
31/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 25
Potential Partners
I , q f (x-) j
z E M
w R f C I. C
f I ff f f
- j qf
Vk C.
T , I
ff J
I k 4
f ff f x.6
Hw, I f
z f x. T
4 x f
w
f
x f I. F x, J ,
A W
w f
k L,
w w LNG
C.64
J z w I C w
f f x j
f.
E x f
(w LNG ), w f z
f f . T
z : ) f
w E k; )
f z 6 R, Israeli government approves 40 pct limit on natural gasexports, J , www...
64 Nw.., Woodside holds off on $750 m for Israel, 5 J, www.w..; C M, Noble suggests quickerway of bringing in gas, J , www.-.;G, Woodside reviewing Israel plan report, J ,www... ; N E, A f, 6 D, www..;U O, Woodsidetakes Leviathan stake, D , www..; F T, Woodside snaps up Leviathanstake, D , www.f..
k ff; ) ff k w
f ; ) q
LNG x .65 T
ff . A
E ff f qf
, f
k j z w C
.
S, C L
. L f
C I x
w f ,
. L ff
fwk, k f ,
ff , k
- .66
Other Legal and Political Risks
I , j z C
f w f
f w. T
x f k,
w k f x, w f , ,
. T
w A T-L
f S LNG j
f ff. T
f qk.
65 Hw, E w k w w fwk , w
w -f . S fx A A , Between a rock and a hard place:Egypts new natural gas supply policy, A P I- C, V 8, N , M , www...
66 S Hk D, L E-K, B F,East Mediterranean gas: what kind of a game-changer, OxfI f E S, D , www.xf..
http://www.reuters.com/http://www.news.com.au/http://www.cyprus-mail.com/http://www.globes.co.il/http://www.nobleenergyinc.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.ft.com/http://www.apic.com/http://www.apic.com/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/http://www.apic.com/http://www.apic.com/http://www.ft.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.upstreamonline.com/http://www.nobleenergyinc.com/http://www.globes.co.il/http://www.cyprus-mail.com/http://www.news.com.au/http://www.reuters.com/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
32/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States26
J z w C I - f
M E. T f
f x
f . A LNG C w I
k . T ff
,
f . C w
I IOC f . T
f ,
, f j
/ . FI, j z w C
w f f
w Tk.67
67 M M L, Cyprus bailout andIsrael-Turkey dtente present new opportunities, 5 M, www.f.; Nw Yk T, ForCyprus a sudden need toplay nice with Turkey, 8 M, www...
http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.gmfus.org/http://www.nytimes.com/http://www.nytimes.com/http://www.nytimes.com/http://www.gmfus.org/ -
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
33/35
Natural Gas in Cyprus 27
T f A f f
ff C .
I w f
, f
f
x k f
. I ff ,
f .
T f C ( )
f
, w
xz f. B
, C f f k
f Tk. Tk
f C w EEZ.
I k k C
ff f f
f . T C
j , w
f
f x C ff
k.
S f EU
k, w
-k
- .
T fw w
w, w w j
ff .
P x f C
k f . A f f f z q
f ,
x f ,
ff j f
A f. P-
f f k f f C.
If A f
f, C w k
w f
. P f
f f
Bk , w T ENI-
KOGAS f k w
, / j z w
I qf LNG
C. S
w . T x
ENI-KOGAS T
ff f
z f . E f
x f
f.
C fq , f-
x Tk w
z ,
f . T w
f k k q
f .
T f x
LNG w
f. T
w LNG
f
f
f. T k f -,
. A f x
C (.. f 5-8 f
A), f LNG
w .
Lqf x f LNG j
,
k f
k ( LNG
8Conclusions
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
34/35
The German Marshall Fund of the United States28
), - k k ( LNG fx f
k f), xz f
f f f
LNG f
. LNG
w , , k
, k-f.
T f f C
w f f
w. I EU
f f
I, ff
, j w , ,
, C w
ff f
ff
f, , , E w.
-
7/29/2019 Natural Gas in Cyprus: Choosing the Right Option
35/35
O F F I C E S
Washington Berlin Paris BrusselsBelgrade Ankara Bucharest Warsaw Tunis