Natural Gas Data Systems Conceptual Framework Measurement and Distribution Current Developments and...
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Transcript of Natural Gas Data Systems Conceptual Framework Measurement and Distribution Current Developments and...
Natural Gas Data Systems
Conceptual FrameworkMeasurement and DistributionCurrent Developments and Changes
Roy KassEnergy Information AdministrationMay 1999
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Gas ProcessingPlant
Pipeline
UndergroundStorage
LocalDistrib.Company
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Elect. Util.
Imports
Generalized Schematic Physical Flow of Natural Gas in U.S.
Consumers
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Gas ProcessingPlant
Pipeline
UndergroundStorage
LocalDistrib.Company
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Elect. Util.
Imports
Generalized SchematicSales of Natural Gas in U.S.
Third Party (Marketer, Broker)
Consumers
Measurement and Dissemination
of Natural Gas DataProduction
Storage
Consumption by Residential, Commercial, Industrial
Consumption by Regulated Utilities
Consumption by Other Electric Generation
Transportation
Measurement and Dissemination
of Natural Gas Data
Overarching Fact of Natural Gas Data Surveys:
Respondents are companies that physically deliver the gas and who report on a “custody” or physical delivery basis.
Natural Gas Production
Measured By
Disseminated Through
Survey of Producing States and Mineral Management Service
“Evolving Estimate” in Natural Gas Monthly. Full data are not complete until the Fall of the following year
Underground Natural Gas Storage
Measured By
Disseminated Through
Monthly Survey of Storage Field Operators -- asking injections, withdrawals, base gas, working gas.Confidential Survey
State- and National-level aggregates published in Natural Gas Monthly
Residential, Commercial and Industrial Consumption
Measured By
Disseminated Through
Monthly Survey of 400 Company/States (Delivered to End Users) Confidential Survey
Aggregated by State and Nation in Natural Gas Monthly Volumes by Sector Price (onsystem sales only) by Sector
Consumption at Regulated Electric Utilities
Measured By
Disseminated Through
Surveys of Regulated Electric Utilities One focusses on volumes consumed Another focusses on price of fuel consumed
Aggregated by State and Nation in Natural Gas Monthly Volumes consumed by Electric Utilities Price of fuel used in generation by Electric Utilities
Volumes and Prices: Special Datasets for Monthly Data
Measured By
Disseminated Through
Special datasets on Web Text files for Total United States Flat files with synopsis of State x Sector volumes, prices and percentage onsystem sales
Monthly Surveys already noted
Annual State-To-State Flows
Measured By
Disseminated Through
Annual Survey of Entire Natural Gas IndustryNot Confidential
State Level Aggregates -- Natural Gas Annual
Micro Level Responses -- EIA-176 Query System
Measurement and Aggregation of Annual
Supply, Disposition, PricesMeasured By
Disseminated Through
Annual Survey of Entire Natural Gas IndustryNot Confidential
National, Regional, and State Level Aggregation -- Natural Gas Annual and Historical Natural Gas Annual
Measurement and Respondent-level Dissemination:Annual Supply,
Disposition, Prices
Measured By
Disseminated Through
Annual Survey of Entire Natural Gas IndustryNot Confidential
Micro-level database -- EIA176 Query System
Natural Gas Data Systems Development
With changes in the regulatory and financial environment, EIA’s natural gas systems are increasingly unable to successfully measure the industry
* Separation of equity from custody flows
* Rise of Actors outside the scope of current systems
* Development of new phenomena such as market hubs
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 20000%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Residential Commercial Industrial
RestructuringHistory Projections
Percentage of Natural Gas Deliveries For Which Price is Percentage of Natural Gas Deliveries For Which Price is Measured, By Sector: 1984 forwardMeasured, By Sector: 1984 forward
NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS (NG)2
A project to design and implement a new, comprehensive information program for natural gas to meet
customer requirements in the
post-2000 time frame.
NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS
Problems with EIA’s Current Natural Gas Information Program
The data collection program currently in place was designed before industry restructuring
Changes in the regulatory environment and industry restructuring have challenged EIA’s ability to provide information on the natural gas industry
EIA captured only 15 % of industrial prices in 1998 compared with 75 % in 1984
With customer choice program underway for residential and small commercial consumers, coverage of prices paid by those consumers will likely decline as well
There is currently no coverage of many new transportation and marketing activities which have developed in the energy market.
Next Generation * Natural Gas
Project Overview
Data Requirements
Information CollectionRedesign
Cognitive andPilot Testing
Implementation
IndustryConceptual
Design
Focus GroupReport
Next Generation * Natural Gas
Data Requirements
Determine InitialRequirements
4/30/99
Refine Requirements(within EIA)
8/1/99
Finalize DataRequirements
4/1/00
Secure Buy-In forData Requirements
(Outside EIA)3/1/00
Operationalize DataRequirements
6/1/00
Focus GroupReport
Quality AssuranceProjects
IndustryConceptual
Design
NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS
Focus Groups: 1998
1. NARUC Gas Committee2. EIA Staff3. Gas Industry Standards Board4. Academics, Consultants, and
Attorneys5. Federal Officials6. GasMart Conference7. Energy Mix at University of
Houston8. American Public Gas
Association (small LDCs)9. DOE NARUC10. U.S. Association of Energy
Economists
Executive Interviews: 1998 & 1999
1. GasMart Conference2. Media3. Trade Groups4. Congressional5. Consultants6. Investment Community
NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GAS Focus Group Highlights
• Market data to assess competitiveness ”Consumers are going to be asking, particularly as the direct market more and more encroaches on residential [customers], ‘Why am I paying what I’m paying, and is it fair?’”
information about marketers prices, measured at various points market forces that drive prices the effect of electricity generation on the gas market
• Pipeline capacity data• The role of storage in the deregulated industry ”I would put a big
emphasis on the storage side ….. There’s more EIA can do in terms of the price of gas going into and out of storage, who it’s being sold by, who the owners are, how much of the capacity is changing hands over the year, who owns it, when they’re using it on a seasonal basis, et cetera.”
• More timely data; real-time market data
NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GASData Requirements: What We Have Accomplished to Date
• Gathered customer input through focus groups (10 groups) and executive interviews.
• Developed a data requirements database from focus group results.
• Presently conducting meetings to validate and refine requirements for the major segments of the natural gas industry.
• Established and presently conducting a “Communications Plan.”
• Established an Intranet site.
• Initiated several data quality and data methodology studies.
NEXT GENERATION * NATURAL GASWhat We Expect to Accomplish by the End of the Year
• Publish a Federal Register Notice seeking comments on the natural gas information program
• Develop a retail unbundling status report by State• Establish an Internet Website • Refine the data requirements• Initiate discussions with customers to seek buy-in
for data requirements