Natural Gas and Power Generation The GHG Solution Is At Hand Jack Fusco President & Chief Executive...
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Transcript of Natural Gas and Power Generation The GHG Solution Is At Hand Jack Fusco President & Chief Executive...
Natural Gas and Power Generation
The GHG Solution Is At Hand
Jack FuscoPresident &
Chief Executive Officer Calpine Corporation
November 15, 2010
22
Safe Harbor Statement
Forward-Looking StatementsThe information contained in this presentation includes certain estimates, projections and other forward-looking information that reflect Calpine’s current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These estimates, projections and other forward-looking information are based on assumptions that Calpine believes, as of the date hereof, are reasonable. Inevitably, there will be differences between such estimates and actual results, and those differences may be material.
There can be no assurance that any estimates, projections or forward-looking information will be realized.
All such estimates, projections and forward-looking information speak only as of the date hereof. Calpine undertakes no duty to update or revise the information contained herein.
You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the estimates, projections and other forward-looking information in this presentation as they are based on current expectations and general assumptions and are subject to various risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those set forth in Calpine’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009, Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2010, and in other documents that Calpine files with the SEC. Many of these risks, uncertainties and other factors are beyond Calpine’s control and may cause actual results to differ materially from the views, beliefs and estimates expressed herein. Calpine’s reports and other information filed with the SEC, including the risk factors identified in its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009, and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2010, can be found on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and on Calpine’s website at www.calpine.com.
Reconciliation to GAAP Financial InformationThe following presentation includes certain “non-GAAP financial measures” as defined in Regulation G under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Schedules are included herein that reconcile the non-GAAP financial measures included in the following presentation to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP.
33
National Portfolio of nearly 29,000 MW
Geographic Diversity
Dispatch Flexibility1
Note: Projects Under Advanced Development include Russell City Energy Center and upgrade at existing Los Esteros Critical Energy Facility.1 Based on estimated generation for 2009.
Baseload
3,801 MW
13%
Peaking
6,852 MW
24%
Intermediate
18,016 MW
63%
Southeast6,083 MW
21%
North7,336 MW
26%
West7,817 MW
27%
Texas7,433 MW
26%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
CPN NRG RRI DYN MIR
Ge
ne
rati
ng
Ca
pa
cit
y (
MW
)
Steam Gas and Oil
Gas Combustion TurbinesModern Gas Combined Cycles
CoalNuclear
GeothermalWind
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
CPN DYN RRI NRG MIR
Hea
t Ra
te (
btu/
KWh)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
CPN NRG DYN RRI MIR
2009
Ge
nera
tion
(MW
h)
4
-
10
20
30
40
50
CPN DYN NRG RRI MIR
Age
(Ye
ars)
Source: SNL Financial.
Modern
Efficient
Scale
Calpine’s focus on clean technologies makes it a unique independent power producer
Calpine is the nation’s largest baseload renewable, natural gasand cogeneration power provider
Calpine is the nation’s largest baseload renewable, natural gasand cogeneration power provider
Introduction to Calpine
Source: Energy Velocity (2008, adjusted for asset purchases/divestitures).
IPP PEERSIPP PEERS
IPP PEERS IPP PEERS
Exclusively Gas and Geothermal
Source: 2009 SEC filings.
200
9 G
enera
tion
(M
Wh
)
Source: Energy Velocity (2009). Not adjusted for steam, and excluding non-fossil fuel generation.
Our steam-adjusted heat
rate is 7,263
Heat
Rate
(btu
/KW
h)
5
-
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
CPN Industry Avg
Mer
cury
lbs
/ GW
h
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
CPN Industry Avg DYN NRG RRI MIR
SO
2 lb
s / M
Wh
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
CPN Industry Avg DYN NRG RRI MIR
CO
2 lb
s / M
Wh
Increased use of natural gas generation could catapult the US to a cleaner future starting today
Environmental Advantages of Gas
Generation
Virtually Zero SO2CO2: Less than Half our Peers’ Emissions per MWh
NOx: A Fraction of our Peers Virtually Zero Mercury Emissions
Calpine’s emissions statistics illustrate the potential for natural gas generation to lower the power sector’s environmental footprint.
Calpine’s emissions statistics illustrate the potential for natural gas generation to lower the power sector’s environmental footprint.
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
CPN Industry Avg DYN NRG MIR RRI
NO
x lb
s / M
Wh
IPP PEERS PEERS
PEERS
Sources: Peer data based on Energy Velocity CEMS (2008, adjusted for divestitures). Industry averages based on EIA Electric Power Annual 2007, released January 21, 2009 and EIA Annual Energy Outlook, April 2009.
6
Increased utilization of existing gas-fired capacity could single-handedly reduce power sector CO2 emissions by 20%
• Since gas combined cycles emit less than half the CO2 of coal plants per MWh, switching to gas could significantly reduce power sector emissions, even without incremental capital investment.
Environmental Advantages of Gas
Generation
Reflects EIA estimates of gas combined cycle capacity (~190GW), average utilization (<40%), and power sector emissions (EIA Annual Energy Outlook, April 2009). The estimate of potential CO2 reduction reflects the impact of increasing the utilization of existing gas plants (to 85%, displacing higher emitting generation).
Potential CO2 Emissions Reduction Through Increased Utilization of Existing Gas-Fired Generation
1,899
-482
2,381
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Projected Power SectorCO2 Emissions in 2012
Potential Reduction fromIncreased Gas Generation
Potential Power Sector CO2Emissions in 2012
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
(Mill
ion
s o
f M
etri
c T
on
nes
)
Gas-Fired Generation: A Solution for Tomorrow, Today
Otay Mesa Energy Center
Nuclear Plant Wind Farm
Cost ($/KW) ~$950 $3,000 - $4,500 $1,900 - $2,200 $4,500 - $6,000
Construction Period1
29 mos. 60 – 84 mos. 12 – 18 mos. 12 – 24 mos.
Land Usage 1/20th acre / MW Up to 2 acres / MW Up to 83 acres / MW Up to 10 acres / MW
Water usage2
~15 gal/ MWh Up to 750 gal / MWh Negligible Up to 800 gal / MWh
Subsidies Required3
None Largest Large Larger
In a world of scarce natural and financial resources, gas-fired generation offers a path to a cleaner footprint with lower capital
requirements
In a world of scarce natural and financial resources, gas-fired generation offers a path to a cleaner footprint with lower capital
requirements
7
Sources: EIA, E3, AWEA, DOE, CEC, Calpine, Public data.1 Does not include permitting period.2 Otay Mesa features air cooled system. Nuclear usage assumes recirculating cooling system.3 Assuming natural gas price of $6 - $8/mmbtu.
Solar Field (CSP)
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Nov
-01
May
-02
Nov
-02
Apr
-03
Oct
-03
Apr
-04
Oct
-04
Mar
-05
Sep-
05
Mar
-06
Sep-
06
Feb-
07
Aug-
07
Feb-
08
Jul-08
Jan-0
9
Jul-09
Dec
-09
Jun-1
0
$/M
Wh
PJ M East ERCOT Houston Northern California (NP15) Avg US Residential Rate
Wholesale power prices have returned toward 10-year lows, due in large part to abundant shale gas supplies
Wholesale On Peak Electricity Prices and Residential Rates
Source: Calpine, Platts, and EIA data. Prices reflect wholesale rolling 12-month forward average on peak prices for PJM-East, Texas (ERCOT-Houston), and California (NP-15). Residential rates reflect annual average retail price of electricity to end-users.
High prices from 2005 to mid-2008 reflected lower expectations of domestic
natural gas supplies.
The proliferation of advanced shale drilling techniques increased
domestic gas supplies, leading to a sharp drop in spot and forward
natural gas prices.
Upcoming residential rate
decline?