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![Page 1: Natural Catastrophe Risk Management Policy in Japan Hirokazu Tatano Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Global Conference on Insurance.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062804/56649d815503460f94a6687a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Natural Catastrophe Risk Management Policy in Japan
Hirokazu TatanoDisaster Prevention Research
Institute, Kyoto University
Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurancefor Natural Catastrophe Rısk : The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano2
Contents Natural Disaster in the World Natural Disaster in Japan Weather Related Disaster Risk
Management Risk Control Policies Risk Financing Policies
Earthquake Disaster Risk Management Risk Control Policies Risk Financing Policies
Discussion & Conclusion
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano3
Great Natural Disasters in the World
Source: Munich RE. 2005
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano4
Economic losses and insured losses with trend
Source: Munich RE. 2005
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano5
Trend of Natural Disaster in the Trend of Natural Disaster in the worldworld
Larger catastrophic disaster is more likely to occur. Number of Disaster for which some
international aid is executed. 60s: 90s=1:3
Economic losses glowed in high rate 60s: 90s= 1:9
Insured losses increased in higher rate Anti-catastrophe insurance available in high-
income countries 60s: 90s =1: 16
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano6
What is happening?
Increase in exposure : Population and assets are concentrating to hazardous area
Vulnerability : Population and assets have not enough resistance against natural hazards
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano7
Natural Hazard →DisasterConsequences ofHuman Behavior
Hazard: Flood, Earthquakes,,etc
Population & AssetExposure : population and asset
exposed to the threat of natural hazards
Vulnerability: degree of resistance of the asset & population against disaster
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano8
http://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/faculty/hodgson/Courses/so11/population/urbanization.htm
Urban population is dominating in the world
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano9
Higher vulnerability in less income
countries
Source: Munich Re. 2005
Large natural disasters over period 1980- 2005
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano10
Proactive CounterProactive Counter MeasuresMeasures ofof DisasterDisaster Risk ManagementRisk Management
Risk ControlRisk Control
Risk FinanceRisk Finance
Risk Avoidance/PreventionLand use Regulation
Risk Avoidance/PreventionLand use Regulation
MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:
(Actuator, dumper, etc)
MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:
(Actuator, dumper, etc)
Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond
Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond
Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, Captive
Finite, etc
Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, Captive
Finite, etc
Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prevent/reduce (direct) losses
Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prepare funds for recovery process
Risk FinanceRisk Finance
Risk Avoidance/PreventionLand use Regulation
Risk Avoidance/PreventionLand use Regulation
MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:
(Actuator, dumper, etc)
MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:
(Actuator, dumper, etc)
Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond
Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond
Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, Captive
Finite, etc
Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, Captive
Finite, etc
Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prevent/reduce (direct) losses
Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prepare funds for recovery process
Risk ControlRisk Control
Risk FinanceRisk Finance
Risk Avoidance/PreventionLand use Regulation
Risk Avoidance/PreventionLand use Regulation
MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:
(Actuator, dumper, etc)
MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:
(Actuator, dumper, etc)
Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond
Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond
Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, Captive
Finite, etc
Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, Captive
Finite, etc
Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prevent/reduce (direct) losses
Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prepare funds for recovery process
Risk ControlRisk Control
Risk FinanceRisk Finance
Risk Avoidance/PreventionLand use Regulation
Risk Avoidance/PreventionLand use Regulation
MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:
(Actuator, dumper, etc)
MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:
(Actuator, dumper, etc)
Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond
Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond
Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, Captive
Finite, etc
Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, Captive
Finite, etc
Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prevent/reduce (direct) losses
Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prepare funds for recovery process
Risk FinanceRisk Finance
Risk Avoidance/PreventionLand use Regulation
Risk Avoidance/PreventionLand use Regulation
MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:
(Actuator, dumper, etc)
MitigationsBuilding codeHigh-Tech. Instruments:
(Actuator, dumper, etc)
Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond
Risk TransferInsuranceART, Cat-Bond
Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, Captive
Finite, etc
Risk AcceptanceBuilding Risk ReserveSelf-Insurance, Captive
Finite, etc
Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prevent/reduce (direct) losses
Actions taken before catastrophic events as to prepare funds for recovery process
Benefit of Mitigation can be different. It depends on the possibility of risk transfer [ Kobayashi & Yokomastu 2000].
Combination of Risk control and financing measure is important!
Needs for integration
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano11
Smaller insurance coverage natural disaster losses in lower income countries
Source: Munich Re. 2003
Large natural disasters over period 1980- 1999
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano12
Proactive risk financing is less used in developing countries
Source: Warner 2005.
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano13
Current and ideal disaster risk management counter measures in developing countries
Source: Warner 2005.
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano14
Observations and Issues Disaster related losses are increasing in the
world. Less developed countries are more
vulnerable and have less insurance coverage.
Proactive disaster risk management is ideal but difficult in practice in developing countries.
How can we overcome such problems?
Japanese experience
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Natural Disasters in Japan
A Natural disaster-prone country
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano16
J apan, 95,21%
Other, 359,79%
J apan, 96,11%
Other, 743,89%
JAPAN: A Disaster-Prone Country
Number of earthquakes with magnitude of 6.0 or larger
• Japan covers only 0.25% of the land area on the grove, the number of earthquakes and distribution of active volcanoes is quite high.
• 20% of earthquakes with magnitude of 6.0 or larger were occurred in Japan.
• 10% of active volcanoes is located in Japan.
Number of active volcanoes
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano17
Epicenters of Earthquakes which were magnitude 4.0 or above from 1980 to 1996
International Seismological Centre
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano18
The Number of Deaths and Missing in Natural Disasters in JapanTonankai
quakeHanshin-Awaji ea
rthquakeFukui
quake TyphoonIse-wan
Weather Related Disasters
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano19
Amount of Damage of Facilities due to Disasters
Annu
al D
am
age
Perce
nta
ge in
the
GD
P
Percentage in the GDP
Amount of Damage of Facilities
(billion Yen)
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Disaster Management Policies
Earlier development
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano21
Disaster Relief Act (1947)
1943 Tottori Earthquake 1,083
1944 Tohnankai Earthquake 1,223
1945 Mikawa Earthquake 2,306
1945 Typhoon Makurazaki 3,756
1946 Nankai Earthquake 1,443
Large Earthquakes struck Japan during 1940s.
Government’s relief policy was established
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano22
Large scale flood disasters frequently happened from 1930s to 1950s.
Year-Mon.Year-Mon. CauseCause DeathDeath MissingMissing CausalityCausality
1934.91934.9 Muroto TyphooMuroto Typhoonn
27022702 334334 1499414994
1945.91945.9 Makurazaki TypMakurazaki Typhoonhoon
24732473 12831283 24522452
1947.91947.9 Catharine Catharine TyphoonTyphoon
10771077 853853 15471547
1954.91954.9 Toyamaru TyphToyamaru Typhoonoon
13611361 400400 16011601
1959.91959.9 Isewan TyphoonIsewan Typhoon 46974697 401401 3892138921
http://www.ffortune.net/social/seso/nihon-mei/muroto-taihu.htm
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano23
High Tide Disaster by Isewan Typhoon in 1959
http://www12.freeweb.ne.jp/photo/ajapskwn/saigai/p02.htmlhttp://www12.freeweb.ne.jp/photo/ajapskwn/saigai/p02.html
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano24
Disaster Management Policy
Needs for change of the policy from reactive to proactive
approach. In 1961, the Disaster
Countermeasure Basic Act was legislated.
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Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano25
Disaster Countermeasure Basic Act (1961) The immense damage caused by the Typhoon Ise-wan i
n 1959 was a turning point for disaster management, giving rise to a movement to plan and prepare a comprehensive disaster management system, and in 1961, the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act was enacted.
Thereafter, the disaster management system has been improved and strengthened following the occurrence of large natural disasters and accidents.
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano26
Change in Disaster Management Related Budget
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano27
Changes in Disaster Management Budget by Category Classification
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano28
Regional Disaster Prevention Plan Triggered by Isewan disaster and enforced. Every level of public sectors shall have a plan
by disaster prevention basic act (legal duty). A plan shall include long-term establishment p
lan on (1) forecasting system, (2) facilities for flood fighting, (3) warning criteria, (4) rescue system, and (5) communications in emergency.
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano29
The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, 1995
Effective Disaster Response is required.
Rapid Response, Information systems, Crisis Management, etc
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano30
Disaster Management Systems Organizational Change in the National
Government At the time of the reorganization of the Central
Government in 2001, the Cabinet Office undertook the administrative duties for disaster management. The Director-General for Disaster Management is mandated to undertake basic policy making and planning, coordinate the activities of all ministries and agencies and respond to large-scale disasters. In addition, the position“Minister of State for Disaster Management” was newly established as the Minister State for Special Missions.
Disaster Information Systems Disaster Management Related Communication
Network
Etc.
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano31
Disaster ManagementRadio Communications System
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Flood Risk Management Policies
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
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Features of Flood Risk Management in Japan Intensive investment for structural counter measures of
flood control Comprehensive flood protection plan including
structural and nonstructural flood protection Widely disseminated comprehensive property insurance
which is run by private insurance company Weak public involvement and conflicts which highlights
tradeoffs between environment and flood protection Weak link to land-use policies
Complementarily between flood risk control and financing measures.
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
Hirokazu Tatano34
reservoir
leveediversion
Storage Storage enlargement enlargement and diversionand diversion
dredge
Flood Control Flood Control ((StructuralStructural) Measures) Measures
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
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Rapid Industrialization and Rapid Industrialization and Urbanization in 1960s and Urbanization in 1960s and 1970s1970s
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
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Industrialization and Urbanization Needs for Water Use
The River Act revised to aim not only at flood control but also at water utilization.
Needs for Flood Control
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
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Large-scale Construction of Large-scale Construction of Multi-purpose DamsMulti-purpose Dams
http://www.ktr.mlit.go.jp/tonedamu/index.htm
Flood control purposeFlood control purpose Water supply purposeWater supply purpose
In Japan as of 2000In Japan as of 2000• 2,500 dams2,500 dams• 20 billion m20 billion m33 capacity capacity
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
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Results of Intensive Structural Flood ControlResults of Intensive Structural Flood Control
Accelerated increase Accelerated increase in economic loss / in economic loss / areaarea
Decrease in Decrease in inundated inundated areaarea
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
Disaster Prevention Research Institute Kyoto University
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Land use planning(?) and Flood Protection in
Tokyo 1882
1919
1954
1996
37years past
35years past
42years past
1911 1930
Construction of Edo-Gawa discharge channel
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Global Conference on Insurance and Reınsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk :The Role of Public-Private Partnerships December 8–9, 2005
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Retention ponds and infiltration
Flood-proofing
Conservation of upper-stream basin
Flood insurance
Forecasting and early warning
Flood fightingLand use control/management*
* Not working well in Japan
H
Radar
Flood Hazard Mapping
Non-structural flood control counter measures
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Tsurumi River Basin (235 km2)
http://www.keihin.ktr.mlit.go.jp/TURUMI/masterplan/j1/j01gaiyo_gaiyo2_2.htm
19481948
19951995
Red = urban area
Dark green=forest
Light green=farm land
Ratio of urban area =10 %
Pop.=0.49 mil.
Ratio of urban area =83 %
Pop.=1.7 mil.
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Comprehensive Flood Protection Plan :Immediate Target for Structural Countermeasure Development for Flood ProtectionIntroduction of Non-Structural Countermeasures
River channel capacity expansion up to 50mm/hr
Increase of Retention Capacity Development of retention ponds/pools
to mitigate the increased run-off is asked for when a urban development project is executed.
Public provision of flood hazard maps
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Flood Risk Financing Fire Insurance covers wind, hail and
snow triggered disasters like storms and avalanches.
Comprehensive property insurance covers not only wind, hail and snow triggered disasters but also water related disaster like floods.
These insurances provided by private insurance companies.
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0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100Loss ratio(%)
Payout(%)
● Storm
0
25
50
75
100
0 25 50 75 100Loss Ratio(%)
Payout(%)
● Flood
Comprehensive property insurance
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Total and insured losses of major weather-related disasters in the past
No Name year Total Loss(US$)
Insured Loss(US$)
%
1 Typhoon No.19 1991 10,000,000 5,400,000 54
2 Typhoon No.18 2004 6,000,000 3,000,000 50
3 Typhoon No.18 1999 5,000,000 3,500,000 70
4 Typhoon No.23 2004 7,500,000 2,400,000 32
5 Typhoon No.16 2004 6,000,000 3,000,000 50
6 Flood (Tokai) 2000 7,440,000 990,000 13
7 Flood (Niigata, Fukui)
2004 1,950,000 279,000 14
Source: EM-DAT 2005
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The Nagara River Estuary Barrage Conflict
Location
Nagara River Estuary Barrage
The Nagara River flows out of the mountains of Gifu Prefecture in central Japan. For roughly a half of its 136-kilometer course, it runs south through narrow valleys. Then, flowing through high dykes, it makes its way across the Nobi Plain before emptying into Ise Bay, and into the Pacific Ocean.
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Upper : http://www.chugoku-np.co.jp/News/990629_gouu/photo/2.html
Left: http://wwwsoc.nacsis.ac.jp/jsce2/report/02/01/sokuho.htm
Death:27
Landslides :Hiroshima ( 1999. 6)
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Improving Flood Risk Management
Weak public involvement and conflicts which highlights tradeoffs between environment and flood protectionNew River Act (1997): Improving environment becomes
one of the objects of river management. Public involvement becomes requirement for implementation plan.
Weak link to land-use policiesPartial improvement for landslide hazard: It becomes
mandatory to explain landslide risk for sellers to buyers when real estate is in the dangerous zone against landslide hazard.
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ProcedureDevelopment of a basic plan for the implementation of construction works
Authorization of the basic plan for the implementation of construction works
River Council
Opinion
DetailsFundamental policy, design flood, design flood flows and other details of the river works
ProcedureMaster planOpinions
Details: Details of river works and river maintenance
Drafting of implementation plan
Authorization of implementation plan
Heads of local Heads of local public bodiespublic bodies
Opinions
OpinionsLocal residentsLocal residents
Procedure Drafting of a fundamental river management policy
Opinion
Details: Fundamental policy, design flood, design flood flow and others
Authorization of master plan
River Council
Old planning procedureOld planning procedureOld planning procedureOld planning procedure New planning procedureNew planning procedureNew planning procedureNew planning procedure
Master PlanMaster PlanBasic plan for the implementation of construction works
Basic plan for the implementation of construction works
Implementation planImplementation plan
ExecutionExecution
ExecutionExecution
Academic expertsAcademic experts
New river act was legislated in 1997.
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Earthquake Risk Management Policies
Focusing on earthquake risk financing
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Distribution of the Epicenters of Earthquakes Causing Damage (from 1885)
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Earthquake Insurance in Japan Earthquake Insurance on Dwelling Risks will
pay claims for losses of buildings or contents caused by fire,destruction, burying or washing-away following earthquake, volcanic eruption, or tsunami following earthquake or volcanic eruption.
The insured amount of Earthquake Insurance on Dwelling Risks is set between 30% and 50% of the insured amount of fire insurance, and the upper limits are 50 million yen for dwelling houses and 10 million yen for household goods.
The national government is managing the system.
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Establishment of the earthquake insurance system
Jun. 1964 Niigata earthquakeThe Minister of Finance asked the Insurance Council to develop specific policies for earthquake insurance
Apr. 1965 Report of the Insurance CouncilDecide the outline of insurance, coverage, reinsurance method, underwriting method, etc.
Jun. 1966 Act for Earthquake Insurance The system was carried out
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The system initially introduced
Coverage of insurance Buildings for residential use and
Household goods The objective of this system is considered to
be to contribute to stabilization of the livelihood
Risk covered Earthquakes, Volcanic eruptions,
Tsunami
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The system initially introduced Insurance organization
Stop-loss reinsurance by the government
The present reinsurance scheme is below0
\ 75 billion$ 0.6 billion
\ 13118 billion$ 11 billion
\ 5,000 billion$ 41 billion
Loss of a single earthquake
50 %
5 %Liability of private
Insurance companies
Liability of the government
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The system as initially introduced
Premium rate1st class location2nd
2nd or 3rdstructur
e
location
Non-wooden structures
Wooden structures
1st \ 0.60 \ 2.10
2nd \ 1.35 \ 3.60
3rd \ 2.30 \ 5.00
Per year and \1,000 of insurance coverage
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Revisions in 2001 Situations
Many research on the earthquake were reported, and the ways of destruction of modern houses became clear
After the huge disaster, awareness of earthquake insurance became high, and a lot of opinions were given
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Revisions in 2001 Introduction of discount system
Discount for time of construction (10%) Considering investigations of damage 1995 Great
Hanshin-Awaji earthquake Discount for earthquake resistance grade (1
0% - 30%) The dwelling performance indication system develo
ped by the government have put into operation
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The present system Premium rate
Discount system Discount for time of construction (10%) Discount for earthquake resistance grade (10-
30%)
structure
location
Non-wooden structures
Wooden structures
1st \ 0.50 \ 1.20
2nd \ 0.70 \ 1.65
3rd \ 1.35 \ 2.35
4th \ 1.75 \ 3.55Per year and \1,000 of insurance coverage
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The present system The limit of amount insured
\ 50 million for a building ($ 0.4 million)
\ 10 million for household goods ($ 83,000)
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Future of the earthquake Insurance system
Problems Regional divisions of premium rate The proportion insured (30 – 50%) Low penetration rates of the
earthquake insurance The number of Earthquake policies per the
number of Fire policies are 37.4% ( 2004) Etc...
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Developments in Ownership of Earthquake Insurance on Dwelling Risks Policies
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Other earthquake risk financing tools Mutual Insurance
e.g., JA Mutual InsurancePayout after the great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake (billion Yen)
ART Cat-Bond (parametric bond) Contingent Dept Facility Etc.
Direct total loss
Insured amount of Earthquake Insurance
Insured amount of JA Mutual Insurance
Insured loss in total
10,000 78 119 200(2%)
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Trust company (fund management)
Company( Oriental Land )
SPC* Investor
financial transaction
commission ( 3.1% / year )
bond issuing
commission + interest (market rate)
$100 million interest (market rate)
*Special Purpose Company
$100 million
Trust company
Company( Oriental Land )
SPC* Investorpayment of capital
$0~$100 million
payment of the balance after principal reduction
principal payment
Ordinary days
Earthquake
Cat-Bond for private firms
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Parametric Cat-Bond
Inner Grid Outer Grid
7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7
20.00
32.00
44.00
56.00
68.00
80.00 80.00
65.00
50.00
20.00
35.00
JMA Magnitude
US Dollar Losson Original NotionalAmount in Millions
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Contingent Debt Facility
fund managementwith safe assets
Company(Tomoegawa Paper) SPC* Lender**
loan reservation contract
commission
syndicate loan
interest
$4 billion asset management yield
Ordinary days
Earthquake
**Sizuoka Bank, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance, etc.
guarantee commission
Development Bank of Japan
debt guarantee
debt guarantee
loan draw down $0~$4 billion
interest interest
guarantee commission
Development Bank of Japan
Company(Tomoegawa Paper) SPC* Lender**
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Issues Households
Low dissemination of earthquake insurance in household
Limited coverage Partial link between premium and seismic
vulnerability Firms
Few firms has earthquake insurance policies General
Built up a bridge between insurance and mitigation
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Niigata Chuetsu EQ (Oct.23,2004)
Niigata Chuetsu6.8 M (JMM, Largest )10km depth?Unknown fault?
5KmKawaguchi Town
Ojiya
Yamakoshi
Landslide
Damage of Road
Due to successive aftershocks and road network Damages, recovery speed ofInfrastructures were slow
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Estimated Economic Losses of Chu-Etsu EQ(Pref. Gov. of Niigata)
Item Amount(billion yen)
Infrastructure such as Highway,Railroad, River and Bridge
1,200
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery 400
Losses of Medium and Small Companies 300
Dwelling Houses 700
Power, Gas and Water Services 100
Others( Schools, Hospitals, etc.) 300 Total 3,000
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Niigata Sanyo Electronics co. suffers economic losses in their property in 50 billion yen. But, even such a big company did not have earthquake risk financing counter measures.
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Way forward to building up the bridge for firms Business Continuity Plan will be
required for large scale companies and recommended for middle and small scale companies.
Encourage good firms through market Investors and Public relations
Mitigation and Risk Financing?
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Characteristics of Risk GovernanceFor Earthquake Risk
(Viewpoint: Manageability by victims)○Risk characteristicsImperfect knowledge on EQ disaster-scale and occurrence.
Mitigation cost considerably and ambiguous measurement of performance of building
○Governance corresponding to risk characteristics (hypothesis)→Low incentives for mitigation by individual building owners and
limitation on direct management by governments.
Different types of vehicles, i.e., information sharing, regulation, market mechanism which includes economic incentives, are used for harmonized risk governance.
Risk Governance Under Ambiguity
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Discussion & Conclusions Risk Governance Related Issues: Feasible and affordable countermeasures are
necessary to cope with threats brought by complexity and interdependencies of critical infrastructure.
Legitimacy Question: Do we have proper arrangement of right to decide under ambiguity?
Ownership/responsibility and Coordination/Partnership
Information Issues: incentive for reporting truth (Accountability?), measurement technologies
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Thank you very much for your attention!