Natural and Anthropogenic Drivers of Arctic Climate Change

Gavin SchmidtNASA GISS and Columbia University

Jim Hansen, Drew Shindell, David Rind, Ron Miller and Larissa Nazerenko

SEARCH: October 2003

Climate Changes....

Global temperature anomaly1880-2002

2002 SAT anomaly: 0.57°C

Climate forcings 1850-2000

Climate forcings: The past 50 years

GHG

Volcanic

Solar

Aerosols

Simulated vs Obs. Climate Change

MSU4 SAT

MSU2 SICE

Hansen et al (2003)

Large changes in amount of black carbon ("Soot") in last century

Derived from incomplete combustion (biomass burning, fossil fuel use)

Produces significant direct radiative forcing (~0.4 W/m2)

Indirect impact on visible albedo of snow

Bigger effect in NH (more emissions)

Arctic snow: 10-30 ppbv Alpine snow: ~100 ppbv

Greenland: 2-6 ppbv Antarctica: 0.1-0.3 ppbv

Black Carbon impact on albedo?

Hansen and Nazerenko (submitted)

Theoretically, pure snow ~ 98% albedo in visible

(Warren and Wiscombe, 1981)

Measurements in Arctic ~ 90-97%

Consistent with important effect of BC aerosols: 2-3% decrease in fresh snow albedo (Bohren, 1986)

Factor of 2 uncertainty in effects due to mixing assumptions, voids in BC particles, shape etc.

Main impact in visible, near IR unaffected. Bigger effect for 'old' snow (up to 9%)

Test impact by allowing changes in NH land (5%) and sea ice snow albedo (2.5%), consistent with BC concentrations...

Black Carbon impact on albedo?

Hansen and Nazerenko (submitted)

Impact of BC albedo change

Radiative forcing (different scenarios for anthropogenic effects)

Temperature change

"Efficiency" of forcing is 2x that of CO2 due to

enhanced ice-albedo feedbacks

0.16 W/m2

0.24°C

Model results for sea ice show thermodynamic response

Good evidence that sea ice thinning is dynamic instead

Can we consider atmospheric dynamics as external to Arctic system?

Yes, if circulation is determined by non-local factors...

Dynamic forcing of Arctic Climate?

Winter (JFM) AO Index 1950-2003

(Thompson and Wallace, 1998)

Similar to NAO in Atlantic sector

EOF Analysis of SLP patterns

Largely barotropic structure, becoming more zonally symmetric in the stratosphere

Arctic Oscillation pattern

+ve AO index

Todd Mitchell, U. Washington

+ve AO index

Todd Mitchell, U. Washington

Multiple evidence that AO/NAO can be forced by external factors:

Volcanic aerosols "Winter Warming" (Stenchikov et al 2003, Collins 2003, Shindell et al (in press))

Ozone depletion (SH) (Thompson and Solomon, 2003)

Long term solar forcing (Shindell et al, 2001)

Mechanism involves stratosphere/planetary wave interaction affecting surface winds/pressure

Higher AO phase consistent with stronger polar jets

Greenhouse gas trends...? (Shindell et al, 1999; Paeth (in press))

Is there a forced component?

Many models show eventual rise in AO under GHG forcing

Response is model specific, magnitude not well constrained

Dependent on stratospheric representation and...?

Multi-model AO changes...

Paeth et al, (in press)

Known radiative forcings can explain large part of climate change over last 50 years (GHGs, Solar, Aerosols, Ozone, etc.)

Ice-albedo feedbacks imply greater sensitivity in Arctic "polar amplification", particularly for BC albedo effect

Dynamic "forcing" by AO/NAO in Arctic is possibly affected by anthropogenic forcings

Still uncertainties though…

Spatial/Temporal variations in tropospheric aerosols

Indirect aerosol effects on cloud formation

Modelling of Arctic clouds?

Conclusions

(Shindell et al, submitted)

"Winter warming" response to volcanic forcing

Pinatubo (winter)

Summary of effects: