NATS 1241: Climate Change Science and Policy - 2009 J. C. Wilson Course Introduction IPCC, 4 th...

NATS 1241: NATS 1241: Climate Climate Change Change

Science and Science and Policy - Policy -

20092009

J. C. WilsonJ. C. Wilson

Course Course IntroductionIntroduction

Figure SPM.3

IPCC, 4th Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers

Lecture 1: Course Introduction

• Course Organization and Grading

• Course Outcomes• Course Subject

NASA Photo. Dec 24, 1968: Earthrise by Wm. Anders

Student Objective

• Pass NATS and Graduate

• This is how to do it!

NASA Photo: From the Space Station

PersonnelNameName Tele.Tele. Email and Office:Email and Office: Office Office

Hours:Hours:

James C. (Chuck) James C. (Chuck) WilsonWilson

1-30021-3002 [email protected] Physics (2112 E. Wesley)219 Physics (2112 E. Wesley)

Monday, Monday, 12:00 12:00 noon or noon or by Appt.by Appt.

Ashley PierceAshley Pierce [email protected]@du.edu Mon AM, Mon AM, Mon PMMon PM

Roy GodzdankerRoy Godzdanker [email protected]@du.edu Wed AMWed AM

Rakesh Rakesh RamachandranRamachandran

[email protected]@du.edu Wed PMWed PM

mailto:[email protected]

Course ContentCourse Content

•State of the Current Political/Policy State of the Current Political/Policy Discussion of ClimateDiscussion of Climate

•Physics of ClimatePhysics of Climate•Science in Policy and PoliticsScience in Policy and Politics•Evidence for Climate ChangeEvidence for Climate Change•Attribution of Climate Change to Human Attribution of Climate Change to Human ActivitiesActivities

•Future Climates and the Impacts of Climate Future Climates and the Impacts of Climate ChangeChange

•Policy and Technical Options to Adapt to or Policy and Technical Options to Adapt to or Mitigate Climate ChangeMitigate Climate Change

Course OutcomesCourse Outcomes• Apply scientific method in laboratory and observe its use in Apply scientific method in laboratory and observe its use in

climate scienceclimate science• Use Newton’s laws and laws of thermodynamics to analyze Use Newton’s laws and laws of thermodynamics to analyze

energy use by cars and power developed by a human on energy use by cars and power developed by a human on bicyclebicycle

• Use radiation heat transfer to calculate temperature of an Use radiation heat transfer to calculate temperature of an airless Earth-like planet airless Earth-like planet

• Use thermodynamics and heat transfer to explain actual Use thermodynamics and heat transfer to explain actual temperature of the Earthtemperature of the Earth

• Use cost-benefit analysis to evaluate policy and discounting Use cost-benefit analysis to evaluate policy and discounting to determine today’s value of future benefitsto determine today’s value of future benefits

• Identify evidence for changing climate and arguments Identify evidence for changing climate and arguments attributing it to human activityattributing it to human activity

• Identify technical and policy alternatives for dealing with Identify technical and policy alternatives for dealing with climate changeclimate change

Grading WeightsGrading WeightsActivityActivity WeightWeight CommentComment

Questions in Questions in LectureLecture

18%18% Clicker questions. Participation and Clicker questions. Participation and accuracy accuracy

Mid-termMid-term 9%9%

5 Labs5 Labs 30%30% (Each lab is 6% of the total grade) (Each lab is 6% of the total grade) Participation and Write-ups graded Participation and Write-ups graded

Research Research PresentationPresentation

18%18% Done in Lab groups. 12 minute Done in Lab groups. 12 minute presentations, 3 minutes for presentations, 3 minutes for questions. questions.

Assignment Assignment and and Wedges Wedges GameGame

6%6%

Final ExamFinal Exam 20%20%

TestsTests

–Format to be decided after I learn from the Format to be decided after I learn from the clicker questions. clicker questions.

–Can be done on blackboard if outstanding Can be done on blackboard if outstanding integrity issues can be addressedintegrity issues can be addressed

5 Laboratory Exercises5 Laboratory Exercises– Measurement of power delivered by human on bikeMeasurement of power delivered by human on bike–Efficiency of an 8 cylinder Ford run at road-load-Efficiency of an 8 cylinder Ford run at road-load-power (20 hp) and wide open throttle (wot).power (20 hp) and wide open throttle (wot).

–Evaporation, condensation, latent heat of Evaporation, condensation, latent heat of evaporation and condensation, cooling on evaporation and condensation, cooling on expansion, warming on compression seen in a expansion, warming on compression seen in a vapor-cycle refrigeration unitvapor-cycle refrigeration unit

–Infrared radiation, visible radiation. Detection of Infrared radiation, visible radiation. Detection of energy in the infrared portion of the spectrumenergy in the infrared portion of the spectrum

–Emission infrared radiation by heated body, by Emission infrared radiation by heated body, by heated COheated CO22, H, H22O and air O and air

–You will learn what these words mean; to measure You will learn what these words mean; to measure and observe these phenomena, and to report your and observe these phenomena, and to report your results. They pertain to understanding climate results. They pertain to understanding climate change or dealing with it.change or dealing with it.

Laboratory SessionsLaboratory Sessions–Labs will be done in groups of three. You will Labs will be done in groups of three. You will self-assemble groups to the extent possible. self-assemble groups to the extent possible. We will make assignments as needed We will make assignments as needed

–The labs will require about an hour to finishThe labs will require about an hour to finish– We will split the lab periods in half and half the We will split the lab periods in half and half the student groups will appear for the first hour and student groups will appear for the first hour and the second half for the second hour. the second half for the second hour.

– Write-ups will follow a template which we will Write-ups will follow a template which we will provideprovide

Research PresentationResearch Presentation

–Oral presentation made by each lab team in Oral presentation made by each lab team in the 8the 8thth week of the quarter week of the quarter

–Topics to be determined laterTopics to be determined later–12 minute presentations (followed by 3 minutes 12 minute presentations (followed by 3 minutes of questions) of questions)

Class Time QuestionsClass Time Questions–Use the clicker. Enter your number in Use the clicker. Enter your number in blackboard by Wednesday January 7, 10:00 amblackboard by Wednesday January 7, 10:00 am

–Graded Questions will be on the reading and Graded Questions will be on the reading and lecture materiallecture material

–Half points on participation, half on accuracyHalf points on participation, half on accuracy–Expect around 4 sets per lectureExpect around 4 sets per lecture–Survey, tracking and Pre-test questions are for Survey, tracking and Pre-test questions are for diagnostics and are given only participation diagnostics and are given only participation points.points.

–If you miss class for an acceptable reason, email If you miss class for an acceptable reason, email me and your TA with the answer to the questions me and your TA with the answer to the questions and reasons for your absence and you will get and reasons for your absence and you will get credit (eventually). This submission must come credit (eventually). This submission must come within three days of the end of the absence.within three days of the end of the absence.

Instrumental Instrumental Record:Record:Intergovernmental Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC):Change (IPCC): Warming is Warming is unequivocal, and unequivocal, and most of the warming most of the warming of the past 50 years of the past 50 years is very likely (90%) is very likely (90%) due to human activitydue to human activity

Figure SPM.3

Global Global average average temperature temperature has has increased by increased by 0.8 C since 0.8 C since 1850 1850 Fig. from IPCC 4AR, Fig. from IPCC 4AR,

Working Group 1, 2007Working Group 1, 2007

Figure SPM.3

1.1. TrueTrue

2.2. FalseFalse

What systems are at work? (IPCC Figure)What systems are at work? (IPCC Figure)

What do they impact? What do we understand?What do they impact? What do we understand?

Thermal Radiation: Compare Thermal Radiation: Compare solar and Earth emission solar and Earth emission spectraspectra

◦K= ◦C+273.14

Not much overlap in wavelength

From physicalgeography.net

The atmosphere transmits a lot of the visible

The atmosphere absorbs a lot of the infrared.

Emitted by the sun

Emitted by the earth

Did We Did We Cause it?Cause it?Fig. from IPCC 4AR, Working Group 1, Fig. from IPCC 4AR, Working Group 1, 2007 2007

•Arguments from Arguments from known processesknown processes

•Arguments from Arguments from modelsmodels

Polling Question:Polling Question:Warming is unequivocal, and Warming is unequivocal, and most of the warming of the past most of the warming of the past 50 years is very likely (90%) due 50 years is very likely (90%) due to human activity.”to human activity.” Do you think Do you think that this controversial among that this controversial among scientists?scientists?1.1. YesYes

2.2. NoNo

What Can We Expect in the What Can We Expect in the Future?Future?

• Following 7 slides are taken from Following 7 slides are taken from Susan Solomon, AGU Panel, 2007.Susan Solomon, AGU Panel, 2007.

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group I

Climate Change: 2007

Some Highlights of the IPCC Working Group 1 Report and

Looking Ahead

Susan Solomon, co-chair WG I

1. Introduction and Background

2. IPCC Process

3. Some (not all) of the Key Findings

4. Some Thoughts on What’s Next

IPCC - WGI

•Increases in hot extremes and heat waves (very likely)

How Much More Warming Can We Expect? (2090s: medium emissions scenario)

Global average warming: 2.8°C

IPCC - WGI

A World of Change: More Rain for Some, Less for Others

Regional changes (+/-) of up to 20% in average rainfall

And also…..

•Increases in heavy rainfall (very likely)

•Increases in drought (likely)

Northern hemisphere summer precipitation(2090s: medium emissions scenario; high confidence in stippled areas)

IPCC - WGI

A World of Drought

Many dry areas are getting drier as soils dry out.

Observed sea surface temperature (SST) and links to the pattern of rain in Africa?

Sahelian rainfall decline is reproduced in many

models

IPCC - WGI

What else happens in a hotter world?

Observations of sea level rise from satellites, 1993-2003.

The global average SLR for the 20th century was about 6 inches (0.17m), mostly from expansion of the hot ocean, and with contributions from glacier melt (Alaska, Patagonia, Europe….).

Future changes just from these processes could be up to 1.5 feet (0.5 m) by 2100, and up to 3 feet (1 meter) within about 2-3 centuries, depending on how much GHGs are emitted. Would be several meters over centuries: slow sea level rise is inevitable under warming.

But what about other processes? Rapid ice flow?

IPCC - WGI

Capability to adapt to climate change is currently lowest in the developing world.

Sea level rise of a meter could have large impacts in many parts of the developing world in particular, due to limited capacity to adapt.

[From IPCC WG2 (2001).]

IPCC - WGI

Sea level rise and the ice sheets

7m of SL equivalent is on Greenland.

Rapid ice flow has been observed - and not in current models. How much more SLR? When?

Rapid ice flow probably accounts for about 8% of the SLR for 1993-2003…. if it grows linearly, 0.1-0.2m by 2100. But some glaciological studies suggest this is transient and will stop.

Note: Mass balance is important too. More snow expected in a future wetter world.

Surface melt on Greenland ice sheet descending into moulin, a vertical shaft carrying the water to base of ice sheet. Photo credit: Roger Braithwaite

Policy Topics OutcomesPolicy Topics Outcomes

• Distinguish scientific argument from political Distinguish scientific argument from political argument and their diverse resolutionsargument and their diverse resolutions

• Identify national and international Identify national and international frameworks for protecting the ozone layer frameworks for protecting the ozone layer and climateand climate

• Identify characteristics of scientific Identify characteristics of scientific assessments (mechanism created to permit assessments (mechanism created to permit input of scientific information into policy)input of scientific information into policy)

• Identify assumptions and methods of cost-Identify assumptions and methods of cost-benefit analysisbenefit analysis

• Evaluate assumptions policies to mitigate Evaluate assumptions policies to mitigate climate change and ozone lossclimate change and ozone loss

Policy Background Policy Background

• 1992 Framework convention on 1992 Framework convention on climate change negotiated. 1994 climate change negotiated. 1994 entered into force. 190 countries entered into force. 190 countries including US.including US.– Agree to act quickly to protect climateAgree to act quickly to protect climate– Developed countries to return to 1990 Developed countries to return to 1990

levels by 2000 (non-binding). Russia, levels by 2000 (non-binding). Russia, Germany and England accidently met the Germany and England accidently met the targetstargets

Policy Background Policy Background • 1995 Began negotiating binding 1995 Began negotiating binding

emission limits under Framework emission limits under Framework convention on climate. 1997 Kyoto convention on climate. 1997 Kyoto Protocol Signed.Protocol Signed.– 5 year commitment period. 2008-2012. 5 year commitment period. 2008-2012.

Required 8% for EU. 7% for US. 6% for Required 8% for EU. 7% for US. 6% for Japan and Canada. 0% for Russia and Japan and Canada. 0% for Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine.

– 2004 Russia joined (set over 55 2004 Russia joined (set over 55 countries and 55% of emissions) so countries and 55% of emissions) so 2005 it entered into force w/o USA.2005 it entered into force w/o USA.

Policy Background Policy Background • USA and Kyoto Protocol USA and Kyoto Protocol

– Bush administration refused to sign for Bush administration refused to sign for economic reasons and objected to lack economic reasons and objected to lack of limits on developing economies. of limits on developing economies.

– 2002 Bush administration announces 2002 Bush administration announces other approachesother approaches

Policy Background Policy Background • UN Climate Change Conference, Bali, UN Climate Change Conference, Bali,

Dec 2007 Dec 2007 (http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_13/ite(http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_13/items/4049.php)ms/4049.php)– Countries agreed on a roadmap to Countries agreed on a roadmap to

launch negotiations toward a global, launch negotiations toward a global, comprehensive agreement to address comprehensive agreement to address climate change. climate change.

– 180 countries including the USA. 10000 180 countries including the USA. 10000 participants.participants.


Dec 2007 Dec 2007 – Recognized Recognized that deep cuts in global that deep cuts in global

emissions will be required emissions will be required – A shared vision for long-term A shared vision for long-term

cooperative action, including a long-cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductionsterm global goal for emission reductions

– Measurable, reportable and verifiable … Measurable, reportable and verifiable … by all developed country membersby all developed country members


Dec 2007 Dec 2007 – Nationally appropriate mitigation actions Nationally appropriate mitigation actions

by developing country Parties in the by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable measurable, reportable and verifiable manner;manner;


Dec 2007 Dec 2007 – Policy approaches and positive Policy approaches and positive

incentives on issues relating to reducing incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries;developing countries;

What Bali is and What it is What Bali is and What it is not.not.

•Bali agreements are not Bali agreements are not agreements on specific emission agreements on specific emission targets or specific actions to protect targets or specific actions to protect climate.climate.

•Bali agreements are agreements to Bali agreements are agreements to agree on specific emission targets agree on specific emission targets and other specific actions to protect and other specific actions to protect climate.climate.

What Bali is and What it is What Bali is and What it is not.not.

•Bali agreements represent Bali agreements represent significant change in US position significant change in US position with respect to specific targets with respect to specific targets and national responsibilitiesand national responsibilities

•Previously, the US rejected Previously, the US rejected specific targets and rejected specific targets and rejected national emission regulationsnational emission regulations

Is the Argument Over?Is the Argument Over?• Opps, not just yet. Consider this input from long-time Opps, not just yet. Consider this input from long-time

climate-change skeptics:climate-change skeptics:Dec. 13, 2007Dec. 13, 2007Dear Mr. Secretary-General,Dear Mr. Secretary-General,Re: UN climate conference taking the World in entirely the Re: UN climate conference taking the World in entirely the

wrong directionwrong direction• It is not possible to stop climate change,.... We therefore It is not possible to stop climate change,.... We therefore

need to equip nations to become resilient to the full range need to equip nations to become resilient to the full range of these natural phenomena by promoting economic growth of these natural phenomena by promoting economic growth and wealth generation. and wealth generation.

• The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued increasingly alarming conclusions Change (IPCC) has issued increasingly alarming conclusions about the climatic influences of human-produced carbon about the climatic influences of human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2), While we understand the evidence that has dioxide (CO2), While we understand the evidence that has led them to view CO2 emissions as harmful, the IPCC's led them to view CO2 emissions as harmful, the IPCC's conclusions are quite inadequate as justification for conclusions are quite inadequate as justification for implementing policies that will markedly diminish future implementing policies that will markedly diminish future prosperity. ……prosperity. ……

• Signed by 100: Bryson, Linzen, Gray, Singer … … …Signed by 100: Bryson, Linzen, Gray, Singer … … …

Did the Election End the Did the Election End the Political Political Discussion?Discussion?• HA!HA!• NYTimes, Jan 2, 2009: NYTimes, Jan 2, 2009: In Obama’s Team, In Obama’s Team,

Two Camps on Climate Two Camps on Climate – ““According to a transition official familiar with According to a transition official familiar with

Mr. Summers’s thinking, he is wary of moving Mr. Summers’s thinking, he is wary of moving very quickly on a carbon cap, because doing so very quickly on a carbon cap, because doing so could raise energy costs, kill jobs and deepen could raise energy costs, kill jobs and deepen the current recession. He foresees a phase-in the current recession. He foresees a phase-in of several years for any carbon restraint of several years for any carbon restraint regime, particularly if the economy continues regime, particularly if the economy continues to be sluggish, a slower timetable than many to be sluggish, a slower timetable than many lawmakers and environmentalists are pressing. lawmakers and environmentalists are pressing. ““

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