NATO respond to military threats

Dr. Arūnas Molis25 April, 2014

Tallinn

European security

Overview

• NATO has made a long way since 1949

• It evolved few times – showed flexibility

• First it was a war-fighting defensive alliance

• Then it was a force of peacekeeping and

concilliation (Balkan Wars)

• Balkan wars created NATO as an

interventionist force

• NATO created „out of area” operations

• It gave NATO a new life

• Now it is a global alliance, focusing on different

threats from a regional and global perspective

• The most powerful in the whole world

NATO’s Problems

TERRORISM

PROLIFERATION OF WMD

MISSILE THREATS

CYBER SECURITY

PIRACY

ENERGY SECURITY

United States

Canada

France

United Kingdom

Belgium

Netherlands

Luxembourg

Denmark

Italy

Norway

Iceland

Portugal

1952

Greece

Turkey

Western Germany

Spain

Poland

Czech Republic

Hungary

1955

1982

1999

2004

Bulgaria

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Romania

Slovakia

Slovenia

2009

Albania

Croatia

Overview

1949(Foundation of NATO)

1989/1991(End of the Cold War)

1992(War in Bosnia and Hercegovina)

1999(War in Kosovo)

2001(War in Afghanistan)

2011(War in Libya)

NATO

Enlargement towards Balkans

Discussions around the new NATO

Strategic concept

Return of France to NATO

Stuck in Afghanistan

Global partnerships?

New tasks http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FziXbYrmAdk

The North Atlantic TreatyThe North Atlantic Treaty

Preamble expresses timeless shared values, interests.

Art. 2: commitment to promote international peace and political, economic cooperation.

Art. 4: pledges cooperation to deal with THREATS to “territorial integrity, political independence or security.”

Art. 5: mutual defense commitment.

Art. 10: countries that can “further the principles” and “contribute to the security of the North Atlantic Area” may be invited to join.

                      

NATO and the Baltic States

Air Policing, investments http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=0CeYNFii6sY&feature=related

Capabilities http://tv.delfi.lt/video/n8MLgXdL/

Defence plans http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6o5OLbGP6iM

Military exercise, training http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=mfyZUCpEvf8

Permanent consultations (e.g. on New NATO Strategic Concept) http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=e-RwrK4PugE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZkm2G_i1Qs

Casualties

New NATO

• „New” NATO - new aims and goals were created

• A large-scale invasion on NATO’s territory is no

longer the main concern

• NATO does not focus on defence but on

combatting WMD proliferation and terrorism

• NATO is no longer a “eurocentric” alliance, as

shown by the operation in Afghanistan and the

training mission in Iraq, also Libya

• NATO is an instrument that can be used

whenever common security interests of the allies

are threatened

• NATO’s operational commitments stretched from

the western end of the Mediterranean to Eastern

Afghanistan, bordering on China

• NATO is a very important (probably the most

important) political-military organization

Debates on additional NATO’s reassurance

Geopolitical competition continues

Post-Cold War hopes for growing harmony vanished (Balkan wars, NATO air strikes, US missile defence, RF-Geo war, etc.)

New ways of pressure are applied (energy, cyber, minorities)

New NATO and EU member states are marginalized

“Zones of special interests” are recreated

NATO MS pursue different interests, approaches and strategies

Who is ready for “fighting for the Baltic States”?

“Partners first” or “Russia first” ?

Resources for development of territorial or expeditionary force?

When and how to apply Article VI ? “The responsibility to defend an ally applies in case of an “armed” attack “on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America”

Practical steps of reassurance

Reinforcing solidarity

Preserving the US involvement in European security

Freezing dialogue with aggressive and breaking the commitments external “partner”

Supporting the development of military infrastructure and reinforcement capabilities of new NATO MS

Study and plug the gaps in NATO’s respond abilities:

facilitation of procedures for bringing individual allies worries to the attention of NATO

creation of the NATO military experts composed body which would review potential enemies’ actions and other threats also draw recommendations for response

allocation of resources for contingency planning and exercises, development of appropriate weapons and expertise

Overcoming the strategic mistrust

Speed-up the NATO enlargement plans? Toward Eastern Europe and South Caucasus

Timely react to aggressive actions “AbsentWithOutLeave” during the Russia-Georgia war was unacceptable

Putting in place at least symbolic deployments Competence centers, missile defence elements, etc.

Improve the ability of new MS to receive military reinforcement Modernization of infrastructure, bases, ports, airfields

Insist on proper defence reforms The more reforms at home, the more attention from NATO

Assisting in doing “homework”

NATO’s role in energy security

NATO and Energy Security

Chicago Summit Declaration (2012) “we will work towards significantly improving the energy efficiency of our military forces; develop our competence in supporting the protection of critical energy infrastructure; and further develop our outreach activities in consultation with partners, on a case-by-case basis. We welcome the offer to establish a NATO-accredited Energy Security Centre of Excellence in Lithuania as a contribution to NATO’s efforts in this area”

Concept of CEO’s - since 2003

NATO ENSEC COE established aiming:

Contribute to NATO’s efforts to develop partnerships with and among everyone sharing strategic interests

Increase partners’ interest to cooperate inside and with NATO: introduce new cooperation areas, respond to their interests

Contribute to NATO’s, nations’ and partners’ interoperability, gain from broader subject matter discussion

Stimulate Nations’ and partners’ contribution to NATO’s OES: concepts, doctrines and capabilities development

Get human and financial support for NATO ENSECCOE “soft” activities: research, training, fellowship programs, etc.

Stimulate public – private partnership in the area of operational energy

Military Application of

Energy Innovations

• Promoting renewable (alternative) energy resources

•Improving energy efficiency

•Coordinating and promoting R&D projects

Military Application of

Energy Innovations

• Promoting renewable (alternative) energy resources

•Improving energy efficiency

•Coordinating and promoting R&D projects

Protection of CEI

• Concept development on CEI protection

• Analyzing risks and threats to CEI

• Supporting military capacity building for CEI protection

•PPP initiatives

International Cooperation on Energy Security

• International organizations and International law on energy security

•Consultations with partners

•Research and analysis

•Publications

International Cooperation on Energy Security

• International organizations and International law on energy security

•Consultations with partners

•Research and analysis

•Publications

PROGRAMS

NATO ENSEC COE

Structure of NATO ENSEC COE

US will initiate Note of Joining procedure shortly

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