NATIONAL DEFENCE ACADEMY NATIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENCE FACULTY

OPERATIONAL ART DEPARTMENT

Col. IVO MARINOV Assoc. Prof., PhD

NATO CRISIS

MANAGEMENT

2

Name IVO MARINOV

Rank COLONEL, BGR A

Current

Position

Associate Professor , Operational art Chair,

Rakovski Defence And Staff College

Interna-

tional

Positions

held

ADVISOR ETHICS AND LEADERSHIP – 2007

NATO TRAINING MISSION-IRAQ

STAFF OFFICER, J3/5/7/9 EXERCISE

SECTION–2003-2004, NATO JOINT

HEADQUARTERS SOUTHWEST, MADRID

Education Rakovski Defence and Staff College, 2003–

2007 - PhD

Paisii Hilendarski University of Plovdiv, 1997

– 1999, MA – International Relations

Rakovski Defence and Staff College, 1991–

1994 - MA

Military Academy, 1977 – 1981 - MA

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1. CRISIS MANAGEMENT GOALS

2. BASIC PRINCIPLES

3. NATO CRISIS RESPONSE SYSTEM

4. RESPONSIBILITIES OF NATO

INSTITUTIONS TO NCRS

5. NATO CRISIS MANAGEMENT PROCESS

6. PARTICIPATION OF NATO PARTNERS AND

NON-NATO NATIONS

PRESENTATION OUTLINE

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TIME CRISIS DEVELOPMENT CYCLES:

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CRISIS MANAGEMENT BASIC SCHEME OF CRISES AND CONFLICTS RESOLVING

CONFLICT

RESOLVING

CRISIS

RESOLVING

CRISIS

1. LOW INTENSITY

2. HIGH INTENSITY

3. SECONDARY HIGN INTENSITY

CONFLICT

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THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY - 4 April 1949 ARTICLE 4: THE PARTIES WILL CONSULT TOGETHER WHENEVER, IN THE OPINION OF ANY OF THEM, THE TERRITORIAL

INTEGRITY, POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE OR SECURITY OF ANY OF

THE PARTIES IS THREATENED

ARTICLE 5: THE PARTIES AGREE THAT AN ARMED ATTACK

AGAINST ONE OR MORE OF THEM IN EUROPE OR NORTH

AMERICA SHALL BE CONSIDERED AN ATTACK AGAINST THEM ALL

…, IF SUCH AN ARMED ATTACK OCCURS, EACH OF THEM … , WILL

ASSIST THE PARTY OR PARTIES SO ATTACKED BY TAKING

FORTHWITH, …, SUCH ACTION AS IT DEEMS NECESSARY,

INCLUDING THE USE OF ARMED FORCE, TO RESTORE AND

MAINTAIN THE SECURITY OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC AREA.

…

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Article 3

In order more effectively to achieve the objectives of this Treaty,

the Parties, separately and jointly, by means of continuous and

effective self-help and mutual aid, WILL MAINTAIN AND

DEVELOP THEIR INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE

CAPACITY to resist … armed attack.

NATO Military Operations Article 5 Collective Defence. NATO members participate fully

within the Alliance and are equally committed to the terms of the

Treaty, particularly to the reciprocal undertaking made in Article 5

namely to consider an armed attack from an enemy against one or

more of them as an attack upon them all. This is known as

“collective defence.” According to Article 5 ther is formal obligation

to take action against armed atack.

Non-Article 5 Crisis Response Operations - NA5CRO

include multifunctional operations, falling outside the scope of

Article 5, which contribute to conflict prevention and resolution or

serve humanitarian purposes, and crisis management in the pursuit of

declared Alliance objectives. One principal difference between

Article 5 operations and NA5CRO is that there is no formal

obligation for NATO nations to take part in a NA5CRO

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CRISIS MANAGEMENT GOALS

• CONTRIBUTION TO THE EFFECTIVE

CONFLICTS PREVENTION

• EFFECTIVE CRISIS MANAGEMENT TO

PREVENT THEIR ESCALATION INTO

CONFLICTS

• ENSURE THE READINESS OF CIVILIAN

AND MILITARY CAPABILITIES

• CONTROL AND PREVENTION OF

ESCALATION AND DISCOURAGING THE

AGGRESSOR FROM VIOLENCE IN THE

MILITARY ACTIONS

• CRISIS DE-ESCALATION AFTER

STOPPING VIOLENCE OR END OF

DISASTER

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NATO CRISIS MANAGEMENT

BASIC PRINCIPLES

•SUPREMACY OF NAC

•CONSENSUS

•PERMANENT REPRESENTATION OF

NATO NATIONS

•POLITICAL CONTROL OVER THE

MILITARY

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NORTH ATLANTIC COUNCIL

COMPARING NATIONS’

POINTS OF VIEW

EXCHANGE/SHARING

INTELLIGENCE DATA,

INFORMATION

NATO ACO-KDC

HARMONIZATION OF NATO NATIONS’ POINTS OF VIEW INTO

COLLECTIVE DECISIONS FOR ALLIED ACTIONS

NATO NAC FUNCTIONS 2. B

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NATO CRISIS RESPONSE SYSTEM (NCRS) Integrated System Early Warning System

NATO Precautionary and Preventive Measures

Catalogue of potential Military Response Options

Pol/Mil/Civ + CEP NATO’s Intelligence & Warning System

NATO’s Operations Planning process

Civil / military & CEP Crisis Management Arrangements

NATO’s contribution to Comprehensive Approach with Int. Orgs.

Comprehensive Art 5 & non-Art 5 operations

Defence against terrorism, Counter proliferation, Cyber

Flexible Adaptable to varied crisis situations

Calibrated responses

Preventive/Precautionary Preventive Options – to prevent crisis escalation & conflict

Crisis Response Measures – to enhance Alliance preparedness

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COLD –WAR

•NATO ALERT SYSTEM

CRISES OF 1990-s

•NATO PRECAUTIONARY SYSTEM

•MILITARY RESPONSE OPTIONS

•INVENTORY OF PREVENTIVE MEASURES

REQUIREMENT FOR A NEW SYSTEM - 2001

• NCRS DEVELOPMENT

NATO STRATEGIC CONCEPT

•NATO COMPREHENSIVE CRISIS AND

OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT CENTRE

NATO CRISIS RESPONSE SYSTEM

EVOLUTION

COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH AND

NATO’S CONTRIBUTION TO Taking the 2010 Strategic Concept into account, there are 3 main aspects:

IMPROVING NATO’S OWN CRISIS MANAGEMENT INSTRUMENTS,

INCLUDING TO DEVELOP MODEST CIVIL PLANNING CAPABILITY TO

ENABLE HARMONISATION WITH MILITARY PLANNING

IMPROVING ALLIANCE'S PRACTICAL CO-OPERATION, AT ALL

LEVELS, WITH PARTNERS, UN AND OTHER RELEVANT IOS, NGOS

AND LOCAL ACTORS IN PLANNING AND CONDUCT OF OPERATIONS.

ENHANCING NATO'S ABILITY TO SUPPORT STABILISATION

OPERATIONS AND RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS IN ALL PHASES

OF A CONFLICT.

- AND 3 LEVELS OF ENGAGEMENT: STRATEGIC, OPERATIONAL,

THEATRE/TACTICAL

IN ADDITION :

LESSONS LEARNED, TRAINING, EDUCATION AND EXERCISES

PUBLIC MESSAGING 12

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PURPOSE

• TO PROVIDE REQUIRED PREPAREDNESS

• PRE-IDENTIFIED RESPONSE MEASURES AND

OPTIONS

• INITIAL TIMELY RESPONSE AND FURTHER

ORGANIZED RESPONSE

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NATO CRISIS RESPONSE SYSTEM

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NATO CRISIS RESPONSE SYSTEM

THE BASIC COMPONENT OF NCRS -CRISIS

RESPONSE MEASURES

1. PREVENTIVE OPTIONS

2. CRISIS RESPONSE MEASURES

3. COUNTER-SURPRISE MEASURES;

4. COUNTER AGGRESSION MEASURE– Art. 5 Ops

5. NATO ALERT SYSTEM

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NCRS PROVIDES FORUM FOR CONSULTATIONS

WITH PARTNERS FOR CONDUCTING NON-Art. 5

CRISIS RESPONSE OPERATIONS:

PFP,

MEDITERRANEAN DIALOGUE,

ISTANBUL COOPERATION INITIATIVE,

PARTNERS ACROSS THE GLOBE

IN THREE PHASES:

1. EXCHANGE OF INTELLIGENCE DATA AND

INFORMATION

2. COMPARING NATIONS’ POINTS OF VIEW

3. HARMONIZATION OF NATO NATIONS’ POINTS

OF VIEW INTO COLLECTIVE DECISIONS FOR

ALLIED ACTIONS

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NCRS - NATO BODIES

NAC- PRINCIPAL POLITICAL DECISION-MAKING BODY ,

EXCHANGES INTELLIGENCE, INFORMATION AND OTHER

DATA, COMPARES DIFFERENT PERCEPTIONS AND

APPROACHES, AND HARMONIZES ITS VIEW

OPERATIONS POLICY COMMITTEE- DEVELOPMENT AND

IMPLEMENTATION OF OPERATIONS-RELATED POLICY AND

COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE POLITICAL AND

MILITARY SIDES

POLITICAL AND PARTNERSHIPS COMMITTEE

RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL NATO PROGRAMS WITH NON-

MEMBER COUNTRIES AND RELATIONS WITH

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

MILITARY COMMITTEE- SENIOR MILITARY AUTHORITY,

PROVIDES MILITARY ADVICE TO NATO’S DECISION-

MAKING BODIES

CIVIL EMERGENCY PLANNING COMMITTEE- ADVISORY

BODY FOR THE PROTECTION OF CIVILIAN POPULATIONS

AND THE USE OF CIVIL RESOURCES

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NATO INTELLIGENCE WARNING SYSTEM (NIWS)

OPERATIONS PLANNING SYSTEM

CIVIL EMERGENCY PLANNING – CEP

NATO COMPREHENSIVE CRISIS AND OPERATIONS

MANAGEMENT CENTRE

NATO SITUATION CENTRE

EURO-ATLANTIC DISASTER RESPONSE

COORDINATION CENTRE

NCRS FUNCTIONALITY EMBEDS DIFFERENT

NATO COMMITTEES AND SYSTEMS ACTIVITY

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NATO INTELLIGENCE WARNING

SYSTEM

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PROVIDES EARLY WARNING

SUPPORT DECISION MAKING

PROVIDES ACCESSIBLE FORMAT OF USERS’

INFORMATION

SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH

QUALITY SITUATION ASESMENTS

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NATO HAS

LIMITED

INTELLIGENCE

GATHERING

FUNCTIONS OR

CAPABILITIES

NATO INTELLIGENCE WARNING

SYSTEM

THE NIWS USES

INTELLIGENCE

SUPPLIED BY

MEMBER STATES TO

PROVIDE

UNAMBIGUOUS EARLY

WARNING OF CRISES

DEVELOPMENT

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DEFINE WARNING PROBLEM

AND CRITICAL INDICATORS

MONITOR FOR

CRITICAL INDICATORS

UPDATE

ASSESSMENTS ISSUE

WARNINGS

IDENTIFY A POSSIBLE

CRISES NIWS

SYSTEM IS CYCLIC AND MULTI-DISCIPLINARY

BASED ON ANALYSTS’ JUDGMENT RATHER THAN STATISTICAL

PREDICTIONS

A CONSCIOUS DECISION IS REQUIRED IN RESPONSE TO EVERY

WARNING

NATO INTELLIGENCE WARNING

SYSTEM

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OPERATIONS

Political

Affairs and

Security

Policy

SECRETARY GENERAL

DEPUTY SECRETARY

GENERAL

NATO

OFFICE OF

SECURITY

Defence

Policy and

Planning

DEFENSE

INVESTMENT PUBLIC

DIPLOMACY

CIS

EXECUTIVE

MANAGER

SECURITY

COMMITTEE

NATO INTERNATIONAL STAFF

Some 1 200 civilians work within NATO's International Staff (IS). The

primary role of the IS is to provide advice, guidance and administrative

support to the national delegations at NATO. It helps to implement

decisions taken at different committee levels and, in doing so, supports the

process of consensus-building and decision-making

22

REGIONAL

SECURITY AND

COOPERATION INTELLIGENCE

LOGISTICS

ARMAMENTS

RESOURCES OPERATIONS

ADVISER

PUBLIC

INFORMATION

DEPUTY

FINANCIAL

CONTROLLER

CIS

DIRECTOR NATO IMS

PERSONNEL SUPPORT EXECUTIVE

SECRETARY

POLICY

AND

PLANNING

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR

NATO INTERNATIONAL MILITARY STAFF 4. R

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CIVIL EMERGENCY

PLANNING (CEP) IS A

NATIONAL

RESPONSIBILITY

NATO CEP

ARRANGEMENTS

ALLOW NATIONAL

CAPABILITIES TO BE

SYNCHRONIZED IN

SUPPORT OF

NATO OBJECTIVES

BUT

NATO CIVIL EMERGENCY PLANNING (CEP)

THE AIM OF CEP IN NATO IS TO COLLECT, ANALYSE AND SHARE

INFORMATION ON NATIONAL PLANNING ACTIVITY TO ENSURE THE MOST

EFFECTIVE USE OF CIVIL RESOURCES FOR USE DURING EMERGENCY

SITUATIONS, IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALLIANCE OBJECTIVES

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While the UN retains the primary role in coordinating

international disaster relief,

NATO provides an effective forum in which the use of civilian

and military assets can be coincided to achieve a desired

goal.

Given the requirement for the military and civilian

communities to develop and maintain robust cooperation,

CEP in NATO focuses on the five following areas:

1.Civil support for Alliance Art. 5 operations;

2.Support for non-Article 5 crisis response operations;

3.Support for national authorities in civil emergencies;

4.Support for national authorities in the protection of

populations against the effects of WMD ;

5.Cooperation with Partner countries in dealing with disasters.

NATO CIVIL EMERGENCY PLANNING (CEP)

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CIVIL SUPPORT TO THE MILITARY takes the form of advice

provided by civilian experts to NATO military authorities.

Support is provided to assist in developing and maintaining

arrangements for effective use of civil resources.

In ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR civil ocean shipping experts provided

advice to Allied navies on commercial standards and

international law regarding the searching of ships.

Advice and support are demand-driven - NATO military

authorities must request such help if they consider it necessary.

Support is provided during peacetime, during the planning and

execution of an operation.

Civil support to the military within civil emergency planning

should not be confused with Civil Military Cooperation (CIMIC)

NATO CIVIL EMERGENCY PLANNING (CEP)

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NATO STRATEGIC COMMANDS

PROVIDES STRATEGIC MILITARY EXPERTISE FOR CRISIS

MANAGEMENT CONSULTATIONS AND DECISION MAKING

ALLIED COMMAND OPERATIONS (АСО) PROVIDES

OPERATIONAL AND FUNCTIONAL MILITARY EXPERTISE AND

PLANNING FOR CONDUCTING CRISIS RESPONSE OPERATIONS

ALLIED COMMAND TRANSFORMATION (АСТ) RESEARCHES

EXPERIMENTAL CONCEPTS FOR TRANSFORMATION OF NATO

CRISIS MANAGEMENT PROCESS AND CAPABILITIES

NORTH ATLANTIC COMMITTEE, ADVISED BY NATO MILITARY

COMMITTEE , PROVIDES POLITICAL REQUIREMENTS OF

NATO NATIONS TO NATO STRATEGIC COMMANDS, RELATED

TO THE CRISIS MANAGEMENT

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RECEIVE, PROCESS AND DISSEMINATEAND EXCHANGE OF

INFORMATION

PROVIDES INFORMATION AND ANALYSES FOR ALLIANCE

LEADERSHIP

OBSERVES AND ANALYSES THE INFORMATION, RELATED TO

CRISIS

NATO SITUATION CENTER

24/7 POINT OF CONTACT

SUPPORT CRISIS MANAGEMENT

PROCESS AND PROVIDES

FACILITIES AND STAFF FOR RAPID

INCREASE OF CENTER AND CRISIS

MANAGEMENT BODIES’

OPERABILITY

MAINTAIN CRISIS MANAGEMENT

DATABASE PROVIDE SECURE AND

RELIABLE INFORMATION AND

CONNECTION WITH DIFFERENT

GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS

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OBSERVE, EXCHANGE

INFORMATION

POLITICAL, MILITARY

ECONOMIC

PROVIDE

FACILITIES

INSTITUTION FOR EXCHANGE OF

CRISIS MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

INFORMATION

EXCHANGE

TO/FROM

CAPITALS, SC

PROVIDE

BRIFFINGS SUPPORT GIS

PROVIDE

CRISIS

INFORMATION

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PROVIDE

COMMUNICATIONS

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DEALS WITH ALLIANCE CRISIS MANAGEMENT

PROCEDURES TO SUPPORT NAC CONSULTATIVE AND

DECISION-MAKING ROLES IN TIMES OF CRISES

MONITOR DEVELOPMENT AND UPGRADE OPTIONS

FOR THE APPLICATION OF CRISIS RESPONSE

PREVENTIVE MEASURES

MONITOR PLANNING AND CONDUCTING NATO CRISIS

MANAGEMENT EXERCISES

PROVIDE A FORUM FOR EXCHANGING VIEWS WITH

NATO PARTNER NATIONS

DIRECT THE ACTIVITIES OF NATO SITUATION

CENTER - SITCEN

NATO COUNCIL OPERATIONS AND EXERCISES

COMMITTEE - COEC

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Forming a modest civil planning capability to enable

harmonisation with military planning through the following links

NATO HQ-Brussels

Interface between the International Staff (IS) and the IMS

through a Civ-Mil Planning Support (CMPS) section

Interface, as directed, with other (international) actors

CMPS is involved in both Defence and Operations Planning

SHAPE

Interface between CMPS and SHAPE staffs

Work through staff-to-staff coordination and SHAPE’s Strategic

Operations Planning Group (SOPG)

Bi-Strategic Command Concepts and Policies, Doctrine,

Directives

Joint Force Commands

Interface between CMPS and JFC staffs

Based on doctrinal links and ACO Directives and work through:

Joint Ops Planning Group (JOPG) and subordinate groups

Operational Reconnaissance and Liaison Team (OLRT)

Civil-Military Links 4. R

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NATO CRISIS MANAGEMENT PROCESS PHASES

PHASE 1 : INDICATION & WARNING

PHASE 2 : ASSESSMENT

PHASE 3 : DEVELOPMENT RESPONSE

OPTIONS

PHASE 4 : PLANNING

PHASE 5 : EXECUTION

PHASE 6: TRANSITION 5

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NATO CRISIS MANAGEMENT PROCESS

POLITICAL-MILITARY ESTIMATE PROCESS

PHASE 2

Assessment

PHASE 3

Response

Options

Development

PHASE 4

PHASE 5

Planning Execution

PHASE 6

Transition

PHASE 1

Indications &

Warning

MC 133

Civ/Mil Planning + Civil Emergency Planning

NATO Intelligence + Warning System

NAC Decision

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REFERENCES:

INITIAL NAC GUIDANCE TO CONDUCT A POLITICAL-

MILITARY ESTIMATE PROCESS

NAC INITIATING DIRECTIVE (START FORMAL OPERATIONS PLANNING)

NAC EXECUTION DIRECTIVE (START THE APPROVED OPERATION)

PERIODIC MISSION REVIEW (OF AN ONGOING OPERATION) 32

ALLIED

CHODs

Political guidance and

oversight for planning &

conduct of a mission is

provided to ACO by

Allies through the NAC,

advised as necessary by

the Military Committee,

and other Committees

Strategic military

advice is critical to NATO

crisis management

consultations and

decision-making

regarding the

employment of the

military tool

Process to Achieve Pol/Mil Guidance

IS

ALLIED COMMAND OPERATIONS

Cttees

IMS

ALLIED

MFA/MoD

OPC

MC

CMTF

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Comprehensive = NATO CMTF + other players

34

NAC

DECISION

OTHER ACTIVATION PROCEDURES

NATO SG

PHASE - 1

INDICATIONS & WARNING

NIWS

SECGEN

Preliminary

Advice

drafted by

IS/IMS

Vigilance

More Information

REQUEST

WARNING

MO

NIT

OR

ING

No further

Consideration

NIWS Assessment

Situation

Immediate Actions

(Diplomatic, Political,…)

NAC

Decision

NCMP: Phase 1

(Indications and Warning)

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- Pre-op planning

consultations with IOs?

- Strat Com, Resource Policy

Planning Board advice …

CMTF

Coordination

Non-NATO

nations

participation?

CEPC Assessment

PPC Assessment

Other committees’

Advice/Assessment

OPC

Consolidated

Recommendations

SACEUR’s

Strategic Assessment

(SSA)

MC – Strategic

Military Advice

Developing strategic pol/mil plan*

NAC

Decision

RPPB Advice

NCMP: Phase 2

(Assessment)

*As required 36

MC (Refined) SMA

SACEUR’s

Response Options

PPC Considerations

CEPC Considerations

(OPC Considerations)

Involvement of PfP/

Non-NATO nations

Draft NAC

Initiating

Directive

OPC

CMTF

Coordina

tion

- Pre-op planning

consultations with IOs?

- Strat Comm, Resources,

civil planning…

P M

F

NAC

Decision

Developing strategic pol/mil plan*

NID

RPPB Considerations

NCMP: Phase 3

(Development of Options)

*As required 37

SACEUR’s

CONOPS / OPLAN

MC

CMTF

Coordin

ation

NAC

Decision

OPC

Consolidated

Recommendations

- Pre-op planning

consultations with IOs?

- Strat Comm, Resources,

civil planning…

Strategic pol/mil plan*

Non-NATO

nations

participation

?

NED

CEPC Considerations

PPC Considerations

(OPC Considerations)

RPPB Considerations

NCMP: Phase 4

(Planning)

*As required 38

NCMP: Phase 5 (Execution) >> Phase 6 (Transition)

No

ch

an

ge

Improved

Yes

End NATO

Role

Transition

(new OPLAN?)

Wo

rse

NCMP Phases 2 / 3

re-assess;

change phase

or adapt OPLAN

Plan

Adaptation

? No

Inputs

NAC End-state Achieved

?

Re)assess

situation &

CSPMP

(PMR)

PHASE 4

Plan

Revision

39

No

Yes

Non-NATO Partners’ Involvement

Pol/Mil Framework (PMF)

Execution: operational partners Involvement in decision-shaping

Planning & Consultation: operational partners Involvement in decision-shaping

POLITICAL-MILITARY ESTIMATE PROCESS

PHASE 2

Assessment

PHASE 3

Response

Options

Development

PHASE 4

PHASE 5

Planning Execution

PHASE 6

Transitio

n

PHASE 1

Indications &

Warning

Consultation: potential operational

partners Info exchange - Sharing of assessments

6. P

AR

TIC

IPA

TIO

N O

F N

AT

O P

AR

TN

ER

S

AN

D N

ON

-NA

TO

NA

TIO

NS

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NATIONAL DEFENCE ACADEMY NATIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENCE FACULTY

OPERATIONAL ART DEPARTMENT

Col. IVO MARINOV Assoc. Prof., PhD

NATO CRISIS

MANAGEMENT