National Wind Update - islandedgrid.org€¦ · wind capacity installed in 2017, 78 MW came from...
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National Wind Update Ian Baring-Gould Technology Deployment Manager Market Acceleration and Distributed Wind Lead National Renewable Energy Laboratory November 8, 2018
Transcript of National Wind Update - islandedgrid.org€¦ · wind capacity installed in 2017, 78 MW came from...
National Wind Update
Ian Baring-GouldTechnology Deployment Manager
Market Acceleration and Distributed Wind LeadNational Renewable Energy Laboratory
November 8, 2018
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 2NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 2
Installation Trends
NREL | 3
Wind Power Additions Continued at a Rapid Pace in 2017, with 7,017 MW of New Capacity, Bringing the Total to 88,973 MW
• $11 billion invested in wind power project additions in 2017• Over 80% of new 2017 capacity located in the Interior region• Partial repowering trend: 2,131 MW of existing plants retrofitted w/ longer blades
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Southeast (annual, left scale) Northeast (annual, left scale) Great Lakes (annual, left scale) West (annual, left scale) Interior (annual, left scale) Total US (cumulative, right scale)
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)
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apac
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W)
NREL | 4
Wind Power Represented 25% of Electric-Generating Capacity Additions in 2017, Behind Solar and Natural Gas
Over the last decade, wind has comprised 30% of capacity additions nationwide, and a much higher proportion in some regions
InteriorGreatLakes
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Northeast55%
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Interior Great Lakes Northeast West Southeast U.S. Total
Perc
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(200
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Wind Solar Other Renewable Gas Coal Other Non-Renewable
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apac
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dditi
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paci
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f Tot
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nnua
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NREL | 5
The Geographic Spread of Wind Power Projects Across the United States Is Broad, with the Exception of the Southeast
Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in brackets, annual additions in 2017
NREL | 6
U.S. Distributed Wind Market 2017 Deployment
• In 2017, cumulative distributed wind capacity reached 1,076 MW from over 81,000 wind turbines across all 50 states, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Guam
• Of the 83.7 MW of distributed wind capacity installed in 2017, 78 MW came from distributed wind projects using turbines greater than 1 MW, 4 MW came from projects using turbines 101 kW to 1 MW in size, and 1.7 MW came from projects using small wind turbines up through 100 kW
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 7
DW has a Similar Dispersion but is driven more by Policy
• In 2017, new distributed wind
projects were documented in 21
states
• Iowa, Ohio, and California led the
United States in new distributed wind
power capacity installed in 2017 due
to a number of projects using
turbines greater than 1 MW installed
behind the meter or to serve utility
loads on local distribution grids
• Exports continue to play a key role
for domestic wind OEM’s but even
this is has decreased markedly
largely driven by policy changes,
dropping price of PV and loud voice
of the PV industry
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 8NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 8
Markets for Wind
Long-Term Sales to Utilities Remained Most Common Off-Take, but Direct Retail Sales and Merchant Were Significant
24% of added wind capacity in 2017 are from direct retail sales; 40% of total wind capacity contracted through PPAs in 2017 involve non-utility buyers
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Merchant/Quasi-Merchant
On-Site
Direct Retail
Power Marketer
Undisclosed
POU
IOU
% o
f Cum
ulat
ive
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
IOU:
1,896 MW
(27%)
Retail:1,692 MW
(24%)
Merchant:
1,406 MW
(20%)
Power Marketer
401 MW (6%)
POU:1,242 MW
(18%)
Undisclosed
373 MW (5%)
NREL | 10
A Record Level of Wind Power Capacity Entered Transmission Interconnection Queues in 2017; Solar and Storage Also Growing
Note: Not all of this capacity will be built
AWEA reports 33 GW of capacity under construction or in advanced development at end of 1Q2018
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city
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ueue
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(GW
) Newly entered queues in that yearEntered queues in previous years
NREL | 11
Sizable Wind Additions Anticipated through 2020 Given Federal Incentives; Downturn and Uncertainty Beyond 2020
• Wind additions through 2020 consistent with deployment trajectory analyzed in DOE’s Wind Vision report; not so after 2020
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Annu
al C
apac
ity (G
W)
Historical Wind Power Capacity Additions Forecasts (bar = average)
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 12
U.S. Offshore Wind Market Overview – North Atlantic
30 MW Block Island Wind Farm
3200 MW
368 MW
3500 MW
2400 MW
Estimated Near-term Market – 10 GW (MA, NY, NJ, CN, RI and MD have all proposed further increases)
Market Expansion
• 12 offshore lease areas with exclusive site control• 13.3 GW of capacity potential in leased areas• 6 states with specific offshore wind “above market” off-take policies (Massachusetts, New
York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Maryland)• 4 new lease areas requested – new areas may be deeper
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 13NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 13
Technology and Performance
Turbine Capacity, Rotor Diameter, and Hub Height Have All Increased Significantly Over the Long Term, and in 2017
0102030405060708090100110120
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Average Nameplate Capacity (left scale)Average Rotor Diameter (right scale)Average Hub Height (right scale)
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age
Nam
epla
te C
apac
ity (M
W)
Aver
age
Hub
Heig
ht &
Rot
or D
iam
eter
(m
)
Growth in Rotor Diameter and Nameplate Capacity Have Outpaced Growth in Hub Height over the Last Two Decades
Nameplate Capacity
Hub Height
Rotor Diameter
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Turb
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apac
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of t
otal
turb
ines
for y
ear)
Commercial Operation Year
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Commercial Operation Year
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rbin
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≥120 m110−120 m100−110 m90−100 m80−90 m70−80 m<70 mAverage
Turbines Originally Designed for Lower Wind Speed Sites Have Rapidly Gained Market Share
Specific Power
IEC Class
Specific Power by Selected IEC Class
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ower
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2)
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ine
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ower
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rbin
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r yea
r)
Commercial Operation Year
≥180−200 W/m2≥200−250 W/m2≥250−300 W/m2≥300−350 W/m2≥350−400 W/m2≥400−700 W/m2Average
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otal
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• Specific power: turbine nameplate capacity divided by swept rotor area; lower specific power leads to higher capacity factors, as shown later
• IEC Class 1/2/3 represent turbines designed originally for high, medium, and low wind speed, respectively
Capacity Factors Have Increased Significantly Over Time, by Online Date (i.e., Commercial Online Date, COD)
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Generation-Weighted Average Individual Project
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acto
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OD)
COD:# of GW:
Sample-Wide Capacity Factors Have Gradually Increased, but are Impacted by Curtailment & Inter-Year Resource Variability
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Capacity Factor Based on Estimated Generation (if no curtailment) Capacity Factor Based on Actual Generation (with curtailment) Capacity Factor Normalized for Inter-Annual Variability (if no curtailment) Index of Inter-Annual Variability in Wind Generation (right scale)
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lend
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ear
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atio
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Wind Curtailment Varies by Region; Was Highest in MISO in 2017, but Highest-Ever in ERCOT in 2009
In areas where curtailment has been particularly problematic in the past—principally in Texas—steps taken to address the issue have born fruit
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2007-17Total
Win
d Pe
netr
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s a
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f loa
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Wind Curtailment (left axis)
Wind Penetration (right axis)
Win
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rtai
lmen
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NREL | 20
Distributed Technology InnovationBergey Windpower Company (Norman, OK)
2012: 10-kW workhorse wind turbine that had been produced for many years
2013: BWP conducted a
complete redesign of the turbine
2014: Working with Intergrid (an inverter
manufacturer), greatly
expanded the control and
functionality of the turbine
power electronics
small additional cost
2015: Started certification
testing of new 15-kW model
to U.S. standards
2017: Develop new tower and
foundation design to
lower installed costs
In collaboration with DOE/NREL, over the course of this effort BWP has increased power output of this model by 110% with a greater than 50% LCOE reduction (~$0.10/kWh). Currently working on application to provide grid support and backup power.
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Distributed Wind Technology Performance
Capacity factor for small wind turbines Capacity factors for distributed wind projects using turbines greater than 100 kW
Wind resource variability, turbine operational variability, turbine technology, and siting issues contribute to the wide range of capacity factors exhibited by distributed wind projects. Non-certified small wind turbines are likely to underperform considerably.
Future Technology Trends – Floating Wind
Graphics Credit: NREL
NREL | 23
Floating Wind Industry: Progress Toward Commercialization
Photo: Statoil Scotland30 MW 5 Turbines
Øyvind Gravås / Woldcam - Statoil ASA
Proof of Concept Phase 2009 to 2016
6 prototypes totaling about 20-MW 2 - 7 MW
Pre-commercial Phase 2017 to 2023
Multi-turbine commercial machines12 – 50 MW Projects
11 projects totaling 229-MW
Commercial Floating Arrays 2024 and beyond400-MW+ Arrays
Alpha WindMagellan WindPrinciple Power
ProgressionStatoil
Trident Wind
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 24NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 24
Cost of Wind
Wind Turbine Prices Remained Well Below the Levels Seen a Decade Ago
Recent turbine orders in the range of $800-950/kW
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Announcement Date
U.S. Orders <5 MWU.S. Orders 5 - 100 MWU.S. Orders >100 MWVestas Global AverageSGRE Global AverageBNEF Global IndexMAKE U.S. Index
Turb
ine
Tran
sact
ion
Price
(201
7$/k
W)
Economies of Scale Are Apparent, Especially when Moving from Small- to Medium-Sized Projects
Project Size
Turbine Size
Note: Includes 2016 and 2017 projects
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>200 MW6,215 MW
Inst
alle
d Pr
ojec
t Cos
t (20
17 $
/kW
)
Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost Individual Project Cost
Project size:# of MW:
Sample includes projects built in 2016 or 2017
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≥2 & <3 MW9,344 MW
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alle
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) Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost Individual Project Cost
Turbine size:# of MW:
Sample includes projects built in 2016 or 2017
The Levelized Cost of Wind Energy Is at an All-Time Low
Estimates reflect variations in installed cost, capacity factors, operational costs, and cost of financing; include accelerated depreciation but exclude PTC
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Nationwide (75.4 GW) Interior (49.6 GW) Great Lakes (8.3 GW) West (11.8 GW) Northeast (4.5 GW) Southeast (1.1 GW)
COD Year:GW:
Ave
rage
LCO
E (2
017
$/M
Wh)
Recent Wind Prices Are Competitive with the Expected Future Cost of Burning Fuel in Natural Gas Plants
Price comparisons shown are far from perfect—see full report for caveats
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Range of AEO18 natural gas fuel cost projectionsAEO18 reference case natural gas fuel cost projection
Levelized Cost of Distributed Wind Projects
Distributed wind costs cover a wide range but there is a general correlation to capacity factor. Generally larger turbines also have higher capacity factors and thus lower costs
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY 30
Adjusted European Strike Prices Show 65% Reduction
Strike prices are coming down because of• Technology improvements• Lower project risk resulting in lower financing• Maturing supply chains• Increased competition
Preliminary Data
* Grid and development costs added; **Grid costs added and contract length adjusted;
Sources: NREL Spatial Cost Model; BNEF 2017 (German wholesale price projections); Netherlands National Energy Outlook 2017 (Dutch wholesale price projections)
Future Outlook, Beyond Current PTC Cycle, is UncertainCurrent low prices for land based wind leading to development. Future technological advancement and direct retail sales may support higher growth in future, but Headwinds remain:• Phase-out of federal tax incentives for wind matched with continued low natural
gas and wholesale electricity prices• Potential decline in market value as wind penetration increases• Modest electricity demand growth• Limited near-term demand from state RPS policies• Limited transmission infrastructure and increasing conflicting use in some areasYear to year distributed wind development vary significantly• After a steady decline in small wind deployment since 2012, reinstatement of
federal tax credits could bolster the small wind market in the near term• The pending expirations of the federal PTC in 2019 and ITC in 2022 will likely to
continue to drive the near-term growth of projects using large-scale turbines• To counter the declining domestic small wind market, small wind manufacturers
are exploring different opportunities and export markets• Behind-the-meter and larger distribution grid projects using large-scale turbines
are becoming more commonRegional offshore wind projects moving forwards though final deployments uncertain
32
Photo Credit : Dennis Schroeder-NREL
Ian Baring-GouldNational Renewable Energy [email protected]
Thank you for your attention!
