National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center/

Weather Forecast OfficeHonolulu, Hawaii

Hurricane Preparedness - 2009

National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center/

Weather Forecast OfficeHonolulu, Hawaii

Hurricane Preparedness - 2009

Jim WeymanDirector/Meteorologist in ChargeJim WeymanDirector/Meteorologist in Charge

Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone SeasonCentral Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season

• Season: June 1 to November 30

– Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month

• Central Pacific Average per Year

– 4-5 Tropical Cyclones

• 1971 to 2008: 163 Tropical Cyclones

– 36% Hurricanes, 28% Tropical Storms,

36% Tropical Depressions

• Season: June 1 to November 30

– Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month

• Central Pacific Average per Year

– 4-5 Tropical Cyclones

• 1971 to 2008: 163 Tropical Cyclones

– 36% Hurricanes, 28% Tropical Storms,

36% Tropical Depressions

TerminologyTerminology

• Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes.

• Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C)

• Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name.

• Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph

• Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes.

• Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C)

• Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name.

• Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph

Category Winds

One 75-95 mph (65-82 kts)Two 96-110 mph (83-95 kts)

Three 111-130 mph (96-113 kts)Four 131-155 mph (114-135 kts)Five 155+ mph (135+ kts)

Category Winds

One 75-95 mph (65-82 kts)Two 96-110 mph (83-95 kts)

Three 111-130 mph (96-113 kts)Four 131-155 mph (114-135 kts)Five 155+ mph (135+ kts)

Saffir/Simpson ScaleSaffir/Simpson Scale

Central Pacific Hurricane Center Watches and Warnings

Central Pacific Hurricane Center Watches and Warnings

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch• Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are possible

in the watch area…usually within 48* hours.

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning• Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are expected

within the warning area…usually within 36* hours

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch• Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are possible

in the watch area…usually within 48* hours.

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning• Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are expected

within the warning area…usually within 36* hours

* Change starting with 2009 season in Central Pacific.* Change starting with 2009 season in Central Pacific.

Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones1971 - 2008

2 0 1 1 0 1

42

64

32

17

2 10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Num

ber

of S

torm

s

• Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area

• Weak Vertical Wind Shear

• Low Level Disturbance

• Region of upper level divergence/outflow

• Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area

• Weak Vertical Wind Shear

• Low Level Disturbance

• Region of upper level divergence/outflow

Recipe for Tropical CyclonesRecipe for Tropical Cyclones

LL

HH

LL

HH

5,000 ft/850 mb5,000 ft/850 mb

40,000 ft/200 mb40,000 ft/200 mb

Heat

Heat

He

at

He

at

Typical cruising altitude of commercial airplane

SurfaceSurface

Effect of Vertical Wind ShearEffect of Vertical Wind Shear

Central Pacific Hurricanes 40-Year Track HistoryCentral Pacific Hurricanes 40-Year Track History

Tropical Cyclone ImpactsTropical Cyclone Impacts• Extreme wind conditions

Iniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mphIwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph

• Flash FloodingIniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frameTD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo

• Storm Surge, High surfIniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surgeEstelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island.

• Extreme wind conditionsIniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mphIwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph

• Flash FloodingIniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frameTD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo

• Storm Surge, High surfIniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surgeEstelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island.

Tropical Storm Kika 7-12 August 2008

Tropical Storm Kika 7-12 August 2008

• First and only tropical cyclone in Central Pacific Basin for 2008

• Peaked at minimal Tropical Storm strength

• Remained Well South of Hawaiian Islands

• No impacts to Hawaiian Islands and no significant impacts to other Pacific Islands

• First and only tropical cyclone in Central Pacific Basin for 2008

• Peaked at minimal Tropical Storm strength

• Remained Well South of Hawaiian Islands

• No impacts to Hawaiian Islands and no significant impacts to other Pacific Islands

Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for Central Pacific

Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for Central Pacific

• El Nino (Warmer) – Possible ImpactsMore Active Hurricane SeasonsGreater Chance of Late Season Hurricanes

• La Nina (Cooler) and Neutral ConditionsTendencies of Normal to Less Active Hurricane

Seasons

• El Nino (Warmer) – Possible ImpactsMore Active Hurricane SeasonsGreater Chance of Late Season Hurricanes

• La Nina (Cooler) and Neutral ConditionsTendencies of Normal to Less Active Hurricane

Seasons

Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones 5 Most Active Seasons for Period

1971-2008

Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones 5 Most Active Seasons for Period

1971-2008

Year TC H TS TD• 1994 11 5 3 3 (El Nino Year)• 1992 11 3 3 5 (El Nino Year)• 1982 10 4 6 0 (El Nino Year)• 1997 9 0 5 4 (El Nino Year)• 1985 8 4 2 2 (La Nina Year)

Year TC H TS TD• 1994 11 5 3 3 (El Nino Year)• 1992 11 3 3 5 (El Nino Year)• 1982 10 4 6 0 (El Nino Year)• 1997 9 0 5 4 (El Nino Year)• 1985 8 4 2 2 (La Nina Year)

2009 Hurricane Season Outlook2009 Hurricane Season Outlook

• 80% near to below normal season• Seasonal Forecast 3-5 Tropical Cyclones• 20% chance of above normal season

– 6+ Tropical Cyclones if moderate-strong El Nino develops

• Based Upon– The ongoing conditions of suppressed activity since 1995– Near normal ocean temperatures and then development of

El Niño or warmer than normal temperatures during the later part of the season.

• Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook

• 80% near to below normal season• Seasonal Forecast 3-5 Tropical Cyclones• 20% chance of above normal season

– 6+ Tropical Cyclones if moderate-strong El Nino develops

• Based Upon– The ongoing conditions of suppressed activity since 1995– Near normal ocean temperatures and then development of

El Niño or warmer than normal temperatures during the later part of the season.

• Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterText Products

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterText Products

• Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tropical Cyclone Discussion

• Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory

• Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory

• Hurricane Local Statements

• Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tropical Cyclone Discussion

• Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory

• Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory

• Hurricane Local Statements

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook

• Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30– 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, 10 PM HST

• The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest

• Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops

• Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30– 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, 10 PM HST

• The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest

• Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops

Preparedness – NowPreparedness – Now• Know safe evacuation routes and shelter

locations• Emergency and evacuation kit• Food and drinking water for 5 to 7 days• Strengthen home• Material to protect windows and doors• Insurance policy• Other – pets, boats, etc.

• Know safe evacuation routes and shelter locations

• Emergency and evacuation kit• Food and drinking water for 5 to 7 days• Strengthen home• Material to protect windows and doors• Insurance policy• Other – pets, boats, etc.

Emergency PlansEmergency Plans

• Individuals/Families – 7 days

• Continuity of Operations

• Businesses

• Gather information about hazards

• Meet with your Company/family to create/review plans

• Individuals/Families – 7 days

• Continuity of Operations

• Businesses

• Gather information about hazards

• Meet with your Company/family to create/review plans

Questions?Questions?

National Weather Service2525 Correa Road Suite 250

Honolulu, HI 96822-2219973-5280

james.weyman@noaa.gov 271-6238

www.weather.gov/hawaiiwww.weather.gov/cphc

National Weather Service2525 Correa Road Suite 250

Honolulu, HI 96822-2219973-5280

james.weyman@noaa.gov 271-6238

www.weather.gov/hawaiiwww.weather.gov/cphc