National Urban Freight Conference Long Beach, California December 6, 2007 Mortimer L. Downey...

National Urban Freight ConferenceNational Urban Freight Conference

Long Beach, California

December 6, 2007

Mortimer L. Downey

Chairman, PB Consult, Inc

Long Beach, California

December 6, 2007

Mortimer L. Downey

Chairman, PB Consult, Inc


Plenary Session

Freight Policy Issues and

Research Opportunities

Plenary Session

Freight Policy Issues and

Research Opportunities


Legislative Context

For

Goods Movement Policy

Legislative Context

For

Goods Movement Policy


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2015 2025 2035

Freight Traffic Growth -Trillions of Ton Miles

Air

Other

Water

Rail

Truck

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2015 2025 2035

Freight Traffic Growth -Trillions of Ton Miles

Air

Other

Water

Rail

Truck

AASHTO Freight Transportation Bottom Line Report, 2006


Freight-Truck Highway Flows in 2005 and 2035

Source: Cambridge Systematics based on Global Insight, Inc TRANSEARCH 2004 data and economic forecasts


Source: Cambridge Systematics Study for Association of American Railroads Source: Cambridge Systematics Study for Association of American Railroads

Railroad Freight Flows 2035Railroad Freight Flows 2035


Trade Policy Needs Transportation Policy as its Support• Our Trade Policy is for 2007• Our Transportation Policy is vintage 1956-1977

Trade Policy Needs Transportation Policy as its Support• Our Trade Policy is for 2007• Our Transportation Policy is vintage 1956-1977


Matching our System to Today’s Demands

And Thinking About the Future

Matching our System to Today’s Demands

And Thinking About the Future


We Want Economic Growth and Prosperity

But They Can Bring Along Congestion

How Can We Respond Quickly?

We Want Economic Growth and Prosperity

But They Can Bring Along Congestion

How Can We Respond Quickly?


Changes in Transportation Policy Don’t Happen Overnight• 1894-1916 What Can We Do• 1916-1956 Get the Farmer Out of the Mud

• 1956-1991 Build the Interstates• 1991-2009 Environment and System Enhancement

• What’s Next? And When?

Changes in Transportation Policy Don’t Happen Overnight• 1894-1916 What Can We Do• 1916-1956 Get the Farmer Out of the Mud

• 1956-1991 Build the Interstates• 1991-2009 Environment and System Enhancement

• What’s Next? And When?

Cumulative National Highway and Transit Needs and Revenues (2008-2020)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Cumulative Needs Existing Sources of Revenues

Yea

r o

f E

xpen

dit

ure

Do

llars

(B

illio

ns)

Cumulative National Highway and Transit Needs and Revenues (2008-2020)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Cumulative Needs Existing Sources of Revenues

Yea

r o

f E

xpen

dit

ure

Do

llars

(B

illio

ns) $450 billion gap to maintain

$1.2 trillion gap to improve

3.7 trillion to “maintain”

4.5 trillion to “improve”

3.3 trillion in Resources

Source: Based on Future Highway and Public Transportation Finance Study, US Chamber of Commerce (2005)



Many Groups Are Looking at the Future

Goods Movement is on their Agenda

Many Groups Are Looking at the Future

Goods Movement is on their Agenda


Looking to the Future• Coalition for America’s Gateways and Trade Corridors—”Corridor Summit”– Alameda East – Ben Franklin– Atlantic Commerce– I-95– I-80– Liberty Corridor (NJ)

Looking to the Future• Coalition for America’s Gateways and Trade Corridors—”Corridor Summit”– Alameda East – Ben Franklin– Atlantic Commerce– I-95– I-80– Liberty Corridor (NJ)


Looking to the Future• Coalition for America’s Gateways and Trade Corridors—”Corridor Summit”– Northern Tier (ME-Canada)– FAST Corridor– West Coast Coalition– Tehachapi Corridor– Heartland Corridor

Looking to the Future• Coalition for America’s Gateways and Trade Corridors—”Corridor Summit”– Northern Tier (ME-Canada)– FAST Corridor– West Coast Coalition– Tehachapi Corridor– Heartland Corridor


Looking to the Future

• American Road and Transportation Builders Association– Critical Commerce Corridors

Program

US Chamber of Commerce-Americans for Transportation

Mobility

Looking to the Future

• American Road and Transportation Builders Association– Critical Commerce Corridors

Program

US Chamber of Commerce-Americans for Transportation

Mobility


Looking to the Future• National Committee for America 2050– Mega-Regional Focus

Looking to the Future• National Committee for America 2050– Mega-Regional Focus


Looking to the Future• National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission– Report at Year End 2007

• National Surface Transportation Financing Commission– Interim Report at Year End 2007

Looking to the Future• National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission– Report at Year End 2007

• National Surface Transportation Financing Commission– Interim Report at Year End 2007


What’s The Vision?

How Do We Change Policy?

What’s the Legislative Opportunity?

How Can Research Influence Policy?

What’s The Vision?

How Do We Change Policy?

What’s the Legislative Opportunity?

How Can Research Influence Policy?


Legislative Opportunity

• New Legislation (TEA-4?)– Need to be in place October 1, 2009– Comes After Next Election

New President, New Congress

– Old Issues Will Return– Backdrop of Revenue Problems

Trust Fund Solvency Long Term Federal Budget Issues

Legislative Opportunity

• New Legislation (TEA-4?)– Need to be in place October 1, 2009– Comes After Next Election

New President, New Congress

– Old Issues Will Return– Backdrop of Revenue Problems

Trust Fund Solvency Long Term Federal Budget Issues


Hopeful Signs for Freight Policy• Lessons learned in the 1990’s-especially in Alameda Corridor

• Ongoing USDOT Efforts– Congestion Focus– National Freight Framework

• Freight as a Focus in SAFETEA-LU

Hopeful Signs for Freight Policy• Lessons learned in the 1990’s-especially in Alameda Corridor

• Ongoing USDOT Efforts– Congestion Focus– National Freight Framework

• Freight as a Focus in SAFETEA-LU

Constraints to Change• Fiscal

– Short Term and Long Term Budget Problems

• Programmatic– Donor/Donee and Earmarks– Interest Group Politics

• Institutional – Silos within the Administration and the

Congress– Roles of States and MPOs– Separation of Public and Private

Transportation Modes

Constraints to Change• Fiscal

– Short Term and Long Term Budget Problems

• Programmatic– Donor/Donee and Earmarks– Interest Group Politics

• Institutional – Silos within the Administration and the

Congress– Roles of States and MPOs– Separation of Public and Private

Transportation Modes



Building an Action Agenda-Key Levers for Change

• Concern for Economic Growth and Competitiveness

• Fear of Trust Fund Bankruptcy• Climate Change Debate

Building an Action Agenda-Key Levers for Change

• Concern for Economic Growth and Competitiveness

• Fear of Trust Fund Bankruptcy• Climate Change Debate


Key Elements of Change• Adequate Resources • Goods Movement• Institutions• Greater Flexibility of Funding• Earmark Control• Sustainability• Research and Technology

Key Elements of Change• Adequate Resources • Goods Movement• Institutions• Greater Flexibility of Funding• Earmark Control• Sustainability• Research and Technology


Policy Innovations• New Revenue Mechanisms

– Greater Use of Congestion Pricing and Tolling

– Eventual Road Pricing

• Public Private Partnerships in Service Delivery

• Attention to Urban Freight Issues

Policy Innovations• New Revenue Mechanisms

– Greater Use of Congestion Pricing and Tolling

– Eventual Road Pricing

• Public Private Partnerships in Service Delivery

• Attention to Urban Freight Issues


Summary

• There Should be Legislation in 2009

• It Should be the First Step in a new Cycle– “New Authorization not

Reauthorization”

• It Won’t be the Last Step but it needs to Set the Pattern

Summary

• There Should be Legislation in 2009

• It Should be the First Step in a new Cycle– “New Authorization not

Reauthorization”

• It Won’t be the Last Step but it needs to Set the Pattern


Questions?Questions?

National Urban Freight Conference Long Beach, California December 6, 2007 Mortimer L. Downey...

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