National Population Projections and the challenges of an ageing population
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National Population Projections and the challenges of an ageing population Helen Bray and Shayla Goldring ONS
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National Population Projections and the challenges of an ageing population. Helen Bray and Shayla Goldring ONS. National population projections - key points. Rising fertility, rising life expectancy and record levels of net migration Big increase in projected total population size - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of National Population Projections and the challenges of an ageing population
National Population Projections and the challenges of an ageing
population
Helen Bray and Shayla GoldringONS
National population projections - key points
• Rising fertility, rising life expectancy and record levels of net migration
• Big increase in projected total population size
• Population ageing
Data availability
• National population projections data remain on the GAD website:
www.gad.gov.uk
• Data to be moved to NS Online during 2008
How are assumptions decided?
• Analysis of demographic trends
• Expert advisory panel
• Formal consultation
• Assumptions agreed by ONS and devolved administrations
UK population 1951 - 2031
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Year
Mil
lio
ns
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Projected
UK population, 1951 - 2031
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Year
Mil
lio
ns
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2004-based 2006-based
Projected
Actual and projected TFR, UK, 1951 - 2031
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Year
Ch
ild
ren
per
wo
man
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
Replacement level
TFR
Assumed
Period expectation of life at birth (EOLB), UK, 1981 - 2081
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081
Year
EO
LB
(ye
ars)
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
Males
Females
Assumptions
Annual mortality improvement, 2006 - 2007
UK male/female comparison
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Age
Per
cen
tag
e re
du
ctio
n
Males
Females
Period and cohort expectations of life at birth, UK, 1981 - 2056
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051
Year (period)/Year of birth (cohort)
EO
LB
(ye
ars)
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
Males period
Females period
Males cohort
Females cohort
Actual and projected net migration, UK, 1991 - 2031
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
tho
us
an
ds
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Net migration
Actual and projected UK births and deaths, 1951 - 2056
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1951 1971 1991 2011 2031 2051
Year
Mil
lio
ns
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
Births
Deaths
Projected
Projected components of UK population change, 1991 - 2031
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
tho
us
an
ds
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Net migration
Natural change
Total UK population, variant projections, 1996 - 2056
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056Year
Mil
lio
ns
56
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
Principal Mortality variantsMigration variants Fertility variants
High/Low combination variants
Projected
UK population pyramid, 2006
500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
UK population pyramid, 2006 and 2031
500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100+
Ag
e
Population (thousands)
Males Females
2006 2031 2006 2031
Projected elderly demographic support ratio, UK, 2006 - 2056
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056year
nu
mb
er o
f w
ork
ing
ag
e p
er p
erso
n o
f st
ate
pen
sio
n a
ge
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
with changes to SPA
no change to SPA
Projected demographic support ratio, UK, 2006 - 2056
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056
year
nu
mb
er o
f w
ork
ing
ag
e p
er p
erso
n o
f st
ate
pen
sio
n a
ge
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
Principal
High migration
Low migration
Percentage of the UK population aged 65 and over, variant projections, 1981 - 2056
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051Year
Per
cen
tag
e
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Principal Mortality variants
Fertility variants Migration variants
Old/Young combination variants
Projected
Challenges of an ageing population - Outline
• Background
• Implications of population ageing
– Health– Social Services– Housing– Labour Force– Pensions– Well being
• Future work
Background
Source: ONS: Censuses 1971-2001;
National Population Projections 2011-2031
Population age structure, UK
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Year
Percentage
85+
65-84
16-64
0-15
Background
Percentage of populationaged 60 and over, 2004- 2031
Source: Eurostat 2004 based population projections
0 10 20 30 40
Ireland
Luxembourg
Sw eden
Denmark
Netherlands
UK
France
Belgium
Portugal
Finland
eu15
Greece
Austria
Spain
Germany
Italy
Cou
ntry
by
rank
ord
er in
203
1
Percentage
2031
2004
Implications
Ageing will have an impact on the following areas:
– Health – increasing demand for GP and hospital care
– Social Services – increasing demand for long term care
– Housing – ‘new homes must cater for ageing’ 26/1/2008
– Labour force – increasing number of older workers
– Pensions – increasing state pensions bill
– Well being/social cohesion
..however, the size of the effects are interrelated with changing trends in living arrangements, partnership status and also policy intervention
Living arrangements
Source: ONS: General Household Survey (Longitudinal)
People living alone, by sex and age: 1986/87 and 2005, Great Britain
Women
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
16–24
25–44
45–64
65–74
75 and over
Age
Percentages
1986/87
2005
Men
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Percentages
1986/87
2005
Partnership status
Source: ONS: 2003 based Marital Status Projections 2003-2031
Females aged 65 and over by partnership status, 2003-2031, England and Wales
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Total Married Cohabiting Nevermarriedalone
Previouslymarriedalone
2003
2011
2021
2031
Percentage of women with no children or only one child at age 45, by birth cohort, England and Wales
Source: ONS: Vital events registration data and General Household Survey data.
Completed family size
0
10
20
30
40
50
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960
Year of birth (woman)
Percentage
One child
Childless
Employment
Average age of the working age population (16-SPA), 1971-2031, UK
Note: Includes changes to State Pension AgeSource: ONS: Mid-year population estimates, 1971-2006;National Population Projections 2011-2031
20
30
40
50
60
1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031
Year
Age
Upper quartile Median Lower quartile
Summary
• UK not ageing as fast as EU on average
• Still important to prepare for larger numbers and greater proportionate share of population at older ages in UK
• Need for more information and also co-ordinated and coherent reporting
ONS Future work on ageing
• Quantifying the demographic drivers of ageing
• Inequalities in age at retirement
• How are trends in family formation and dissolution likely to affect the proportion of family members providing care?
Other parts of ONS
• How much are we saving for retirement? Are we saving enough?
• Health at older ages
Contacts
• National projections and the ageing population
– NPP Branch – [email protected] – 020 7533 5294– or – [email protected] – 020 7533 5222
– Ageing Unit – [email protected] –01329 813212
– Morbidity and health care
- [email protected] – 01633 455865
– Pensions Analysis Unit
- [email protected]–01633 816198
