National Integrated Drought Information System
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National Integrated Drought Information SystemSoutheast US Pilot for Apalachicola-Flint-Chattahoochee River Basin4 December 2012
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OutlineWelcome – Keith Ingram, Southeast Climate
Consortium, UFCurrent drought status and how we got here – David
Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSUStreamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGSReservoir status and projections – Bailey Crane, US
ACESeasonal outlooks – David Zierden, FSUStreamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SE River Forecast
Center, NOAASummary and Discussion – Keith Ingram, SECC
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Current drought status from Drought Monitor
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
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14-Day Precipitation Totals
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Cumulative Rainfall Deficits
Past 30 days
Since Jan. 1
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
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Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages
Current:
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Previous Brief:
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Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows
Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with
historical streamflow for day shown
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Current:
Previous brief:
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Lake Lanier Inflows
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)
Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600)
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Current Streamflows
Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500)
Flint at Bainbridge (02356000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
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Streamflows
Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000)
http://waterwatch.usgs.gov
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Groundwater Status
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
Miller County, GA(Upper Floridan Aquifer)
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USACE – ACF Operations
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11/09/12
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INFLOWVERSUS 1-DAY CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW
ENTIRE BASIN INFLOW CHATTAHOOCHEE FLOW
AV
ER
AG
E I
NF
LO
W
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2012 ACF Basin Composite Conservation & Flood Storage
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Lake Lanier
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West Point
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W.F. George
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Woodruff
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5-Day Precipitation Forecast
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml
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7-day average Pacific Ocean SST Anomalies
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
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Multivariate ENSO Index
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1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook
1 Month
3 Month
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Fall Rainfall Climatology
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U.S. Drought Outlook
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Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
1-Month Streamflow Forecasts
Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center
Lake Lanier Inflows
Whitesburg
West Point
Columbus
WF George
Columbus
Woodruff
Blountstown
Lovejoy
Carsonville
Albany
November 30th – December 30th
2012
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Above Normal
Near Normal
Below Normal
3-Month Mean Daily Streamflow Forecasts
Apalachicola WatershedSoutheast River Forecast Center
Lake Lanier Inflows
Whitesburg
West Point
Columbus
WF George
Columbus
Woodruff
Blountstown
November 30th 2012 – February 30th 2013
Lovejoy
Carsonville
Albany
63%
32%
5%
85%
14%1%
71%
18%11%
77%
20%3%
88%
9% 3%
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Summary• Drought conditions have spread througout the entire
ACF with drought in the central part of the basin categorized as extreme to exceptional
• Similarly, streamflows are below average streamflows throughout the entire basin, though inflows to West Point are normal because of releases from Lake Lanier
• Ground water levels in S Georgia remain at historic low levels
• Basin inflows are about 1600 cfs below outflows, so reservoir levels have continued to decline, with Lake Lanier approaching the threshold for conservation zone 4
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Summary• The 5-day outlook is for less than 1 inch of
precipitation in the northern half of the basin and no rain in the southern half
• ENSO conditions remain neutral, so a total of 3 to 6 inches of rainfall are expected for the basin in each month of December and January
• Streamflow forecasts at 1 and 3 months all suggest that drought conditions will persist or worsen
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References
SpeakersDavid Zierden, FSUTony Gotvald, USGSBailey Crane, USACEJeff Dobur, SERFC
ModeratorKeith Ingram, SECC
Additional informationGeneral drought information
http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu
General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/
Streamflow monitoring & forecastinghttp://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/
Groundwater monitoringhttp://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov
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Thank you!
Next briefing – 18 December 2012, 1:00 pm EST
Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-
webinars
Please send comments and suggestions to:[email protected]